diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/2026-03-02-noahopinion-superintelligence-already-here.md b/inbox/archive/general/2026-03-02-noahopinion-superintelligence-already-here.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..083c2c4e --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/2026-03-02-noahopinion-superintelligence-already-here.md @@ -0,0 +1,36 @@ +--- +title: "Superintelligence is already here, today" +author: Noah Smith +source: Noahopinion (Substack) +date: 2026-03-02 +processed_by: theseus +processed_date: 2026-03-06 +type: newsletter +domain: ai-alignment +status: processed +claims_extracted: + - "three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control and current AI satisfies none of them which bounds near-term catastrophic risk despite superhuman cognitive capabilities" +enrichments: + - target: "recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving" + contribution: "jagged intelligence counterargument — SI arrived via combination not recursion (converted from standalone by Leo PR #27)" +--- + +# Superintelligence is already here, today + +Noah Smith's argument that AI is already superintelligent via "jagged intelligence" — superhuman in aggregate but uneven across dimensions. + +Key evidence: +- METR capability curve: steady climb across cognitive benchmarks, no plateau +- Erdos problems: ~100 transferred from conjecture to solved +- Terence Tao: describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow +- Ginkgo Bioworks + GPT-5: 150 years of protein engineering compressed to weeks +- "Jagged intelligence": human-level language/reasoning + superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness = superintelligence without recursive self-improvement + +Three conditions for AI planetary control (none currently met): +1. Full autonomy (not just task execution) +2. Robotics (physical manipulation at scale) +3. Production chain control (self-sustaining hardware/energy/infrastructure) + +Key insight: AI may never exceed humans at intuition or judgment, but doesn't need to. The combination of human-level reasoning with superhuman computation is already transformative. + +Source PDF: ~/Desktop/Teleo Codex - Inbox/Noahopinion/Gmail - Superintelligence is already here, today.pdf diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/2026-03-06-time-anthropic-drops-rsp.md b/inbox/archive/general/2026-03-06-time-anthropic-drops-rsp.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..0012c301 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/2026-03-06-time-anthropic-drops-rsp.md @@ -0,0 +1,19 @@ +--- +title: "Exclusive: Anthropic Drops Flagship Safety Pledge" +author: TIME staff +source: TIME +date: 2026-03-06 +url: https://time.com/7380854/exclusive-anthropic-drops-flagship-safety-pledge/ +processed_by: theseus +processed_date: 2026-03-07 +type: news article +domain: ai-alignment +status: processed +enrichments: + - target: "voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure because unilateral commitments are structurally punished when competitors advance without equivalent constraints" + contribution: "Conditional RSP structure, Kaplan quotes, $30B/$380B financials, METR frog-boiling warning" +--- + +# Exclusive: Anthropic Drops Flagship Safety Pledge + +TIME exclusive on Anthropic overhauling its Responsible Scaling Policy. Original RSP: never train without advance safety guarantees. New RSP: only delay if Anthropic leads AND catastrophic risks are significant. Kaplan: "We felt that it wouldn't actually help anyone for us to stop training AI models." $30B raise, ~$380B valuation, 10x annual revenue growth. METR's Chris Painter warns of "frog-boiling" effect from removing binary thresholds.