extract: 2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study
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@ -111,6 +111,12 @@ P2P.me ICO targeting $6M at $15.5M FDV represents a stretched valuation case (18
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P2P.me launch expected to show 'big commitment numbers that compress hard on pro-rata allocation' according to @m3taversal, suggesting the oversubscription pattern continues beyond initial MetaDAO launches. This indicates sustained demand rather than novelty-driven early adoption.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study]] | Added: 2026-03-24*
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While 15x oversubscription validates demand for MetaDAO ICOs, Delphi Digital's participant analysis reveals that 30-40% of this demand comes from passive allocators and short-term flippers rather than conviction holders. This suggests oversubscription metrics may overstate genuine project support, as a significant portion of participants are portfolio diversifiers rather than aligned community members.
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@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "metadao-ico-participant-composition-creates-structural-post-tge-selling-pressure-independent-of-futarchy-selection-quality.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "post-ico-token-price-is-noisy-signal-of-futarchy-selection-quality-because-participant-composition-effects-systematically-depress-price.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 2,
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"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 6,
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"rejected": 2,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"metadao-ico-participant-composition-creates-structural-post-tge-selling-pressure-independent-of-futarchy-selection-quality.md:set_created:2026-03-24",
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"metadao-ico-participant-composition-creates-structural-post-tge-selling-pressure-independent-of-futarchy-selection-quality.md:stripped_wiki_link:community-ownership-accelerates-growth-through-aligned-evang",
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"metadao-ico-participant-composition-creates-structural-post-tge-selling-pressure-independent-of-futarchy-selection-quality.md:stripped_wiki_link:metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-valid",
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"post-ico-token-price-is-noisy-signal-of-futarchy-selection-quality-because-participant-composition-effects-systematically-depress-price.md:set_created:2026-03-24",
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"post-ico-token-price-is-noisy-signal-of-futarchy-selection-quality-because-participant-composition-effects-systematically-depress-price.md:stripped_wiki_link:futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-",
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"post-ico-token-price-is-noisy-signal-of-futarchy-selection-quality-because-participant-composition-effects-systematically-depress-price.md:stripped_wiki_link:metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-valid"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"metadao-ico-participant-composition-creates-structural-post-tge-selling-pressure-independent-of-futarchy-selection-quality.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"post-ico-token-price-is-noisy-signal-of-futarchy-selection-quality-because-participant-composition-effects-systematically-depress-price.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-24"
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}
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@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2026-03-24
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domain: internet-finance
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secondary_domains: []
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format: report
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status: unprocessed
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status: enrichment
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priority: high
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tags: [metadao, ico, participant-behavior, token-economics, ownership-coins]
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processed_by: rio
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processed_date: 2026-03-24
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enrichments_applied: ["metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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---
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## Content
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@ -44,3 +48,10 @@ Note: Source URL is behind Delphi Digital paywall. Key finding surfaced through
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: Community ownership accelerates growth through aligned evangelism not passive holding
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WHY ARCHIVED: First behavioral data separating selection quality from post-TGE price performance in MetaDAO ICOs — creates a structural explanation for the otherwise puzzling pattern of futarchy selecting projects that still show post-TGE deterioration
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EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the participant composition finding and its implications for what "community ownership" actually means in practice. The 30-40% passive rate is the number that matters. Secondary: how this creates a measurement problem for evaluating futarchy selection quality using post-ICO price data.
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## Key Facts
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- Delphi Digital published MetaDAO ICO participant behavior analysis on 2026-03-24
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- Study characterized 60-70% of MetaDAO ICO participants as long-term conviction holders
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- Study characterized 30-40% of MetaDAO ICO participants as passive allocators/flippers who sell at or shortly after TGE
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- Analysis documented post-TGE deterioration pattern in Trove, Ranger, and Hurupay tokens
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