From fe201f5160c2cac10efc99110f6388a12b3bcfe2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2026 05:46:03 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] rio: extract from 2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md - Source: inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md - Domain: internet-finance - Extracted by: headless extraction cron (worker 6) Pentagon-Agent: Rio --- ...t platform for ownership coins at scale.md | 6 +++ ...l complexity and liquidity requirements.md | 6 +++ ...erational security and legal compliance.md | 6 +++ entities/internet-finance/futardio.md | 1 + .../salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise.md | 53 +++++++++++++++++++ entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md | 35 ++++++++++++ ...026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md | 17 +++++- 7 files changed, 123 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise.md create mode 100644 entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md diff --git a/domains/internet-finance/MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md b/domains/internet-finance/MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md index af4a788c..d47f9587 100644 --- a/domains/internet-finance/MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md +++ b/domains/internet-finance/MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md @@ -82,6 +82,12 @@ Futardio cult launch (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04) demonstrates MetaDAO's platform (challenge) Areal's failed Futardio launch ($11,654 raised of $50K target, REFUNDING status) demonstrates that futarchy-governed fundraising does not guarantee capital formation success. The mechanism provides credible exit guarantees through market-governed liquidation and governance quality through conditional markets, but market participants still evaluate project fundamentals and team credibility. Futarchy reduces rug risk but does not eliminate market skepticism of unproven business models or early-stage teams. + +### Additional Evidence (extend) +*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5* + +MetaDAO's platform scope now demonstrably extends beyond pure capital allocation to operational software infrastructure. Salmon Wallet represents the first observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on the platform, attempting to raise $375K for 12-month operational runway with $25K monthly burn covering team ($18.3K/73%), infrastructure ($4.2K/17%), growth ($2K/8%), and governance/legal ($500/2%). The project proposed SAL token governance for a self-custodial wallet with open-source codebase, own Solana validator operations, and cross-chain support (Solana, Bitcoin). Salmon's roadmap included specific operational deliverables: Android public release (Q2), iOS TestFlight (Q3), staking integration, portfolio views, and wallet-as-a-service infrastructure. This expansion into operational software governance with multi-quarter execution requirements represents a significant scope extension from MetaDAO's initial focus on treasury decisions and capital deployment, demonstrating the platform's evolution toward funding infrastructure projects with sustained operational needs. + --- Relevant Notes: diff --git a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md index cea44c3f..c4a4431a 100644 --- a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md +++ b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md @@ -34,6 +34,12 @@ MycoRealms implementation reveals operational friction points: monthly $10,000 a Optimism futarchy achieved 430 active forecasters and 88.6% first-time governance participants by using play money, demonstrating that removing capital requirements can dramatically lower participation barriers. However, this came at the cost of prediction accuracy (8x overshoot on magnitude estimates), revealing a new friction: the play-money vs real-money tradeoff. Play money enables permissionless participation but sacrifices calibration; real money provides calibration but creates regulatory and capital barriers. This suggests futarchy adoption faces a structural dilemma between accessibility and accuracy that liquidity requirements alone don't capture. The tradeoff is not merely about quantity of liquidity but the fundamental difference between incentive structures that attract participants vs incentive structures that produce accurate predictions. + +### Additional Evidence (confirm) +*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5* + +Salmon Wallet's failed futarchy raise on MetaDAO provides empirical evidence of adoption friction for operational software projects. Despite being an established project (active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter since 2022, $122.5K prior funding from bootstrap and grants), the futarchy-governed fundraise achieved only 26% of target ($97,535 of $375,000 requested) before refunding on 2026-03-04. The project had clear operational fundamentals: detailed 12-month budget ($25K monthly burn), specific quarterly milestones, established GitHub presence, and prior ecosystem validation. Yet futarchy mechanism failed to mobilize sufficient capital. This suggests futarchy mechanisms face particular adoption friction when applied to operational infrastructure projects requiring sustained development funding, as opposed to pure capital allocation vehicles or meme coins where the mechanism has shown more success (e.g., futardio-cult raising $11.4M in one day). + --- Relevant Notes: diff --git a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md index d26c69bf..14577730 100644 --- a/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md +++ b/domains/internet-finance/futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md @@ -37,6 +37,12 @@ The contrast with Ranger is instructive. Ranger's liquidation shows futarchy han - The subcommittee model introduces trusted roles that could recentralize power over time, undermining the trustless property that makes futarchy valuable - Since [[Ooki DAO proved that DAOs without legal wrappers face general partnership liability making entity structure a prerequisite for any futarchy-governed vehicle]], some of this scaffolding is legally required rather than a failure of market mechanisms + +### Additional Evidence (confirm) +*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5* + +Salmon Wallet's fundraise structure reveals the operational scaffolding required even for futarchy-native projects. Despite proposing futarchy governance through SAL tokens for decision-making, the project still required traditional corporate governance infrastructure: detailed 12-month budget breakdown by category (team 73%, infrastructure 17%, growth 8%, governance/legal 2%), quarterly milestone roadmap with specific technical deliverables (Android release, iOS TestFlight, staking integration, wallet-as-a-service), conventional burn rate projections ($25K/month), and explicit allocation of $500/month (2% of budget) for 'Governance, Legal & Contingency.' The team's budget structure mirrors traditional startup finance (team-heavy at 73%, infrastructure support, growth allocation) rather than pure market-governed allocation. This demonstrates that even futarchy-native projects require traditional corporate governance scaffolding for day-to-day operations, security audits, legal compliance, and infrastructure reliability—functions that conditional markets cannot directly provide. + --- Relevant Notes: diff --git a/entities/internet-finance/futardio.md b/entities/internet-finance/futardio.md index 3939e101..4c6ffba6 100644 --- a/entities/internet-finance/futardio.md +++ b/entities/internet-finance/futardio.md @@ -46,6 +46,7 @@ MetaDAO's token launch platform. Implements "unruggable ICOs" — permissionless - **2026-03-07** — Areal DAO launch: $50K target, raised $11,654 (23.3%), REFUNDING status by 2026-03-08 — first documented failed futarchy-governed fundraise on platform - **2026-03-04** — [[seekervault]] fundraise launched targeting $75,000, closed next day with only $1,186 (1.6% of target) in refunding status +- **2026-03-03** — [[salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise]] launched: first wallet infrastructure project on platform, failed to reach $375K target (raised $97,535, 26%) ## Competitive Position - **Unique mechanism**: Only launch platform with futarchy-governed accountability and treasury return guarantees - **vs pump.fun**: pump.fun is memecoin launch (zero accountability, pure speculation). Futardio is ownership coin launch (futarchy governance, treasury enforcement). Different categories despite both being "launch platforms." diff --git a/entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise.md b/entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..68e18b97 --- /dev/null +++ b/entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise.md @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +--- +type: entity +entity_type: decision_market +name: "Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise" +domain: internet-finance +status: failed +parent_entity: "[[salmon-wallet]]" +platform: futardio +proposal_url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF" +proposal_date: 2026-03-03 +resolution_date: 2026-03-04 +category: fundraise +summary: "Open-source wallet seeking $375K for 12-month operational runway through futarchy-governed raise" +key_metrics: + raise_target: "$375,000" + total_committed: "$97,535" + oversubscription_ratio: 0.26 + token_ticker: "SAL" + token_mint: "DDPW4sZT9GsSb2mSfY9Yi9EBZGnBQ2LvvJTXCpnLmeta" + monthly_burn_rate: "$25,000" + planned_runway: "12 months" +tracked_by: rio +created: 2026-03-11 +--- + +# Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise + +## Summary +Salmon Wallet attempted to raise $375K through MetaDAO's futarchy platform for 12-month operational runway covering team, infrastructure, growth, and governance costs. The project proposed SAL token governance for an open-source self-custodial wallet with own Solana validator operations. Fundraise failed to reach minimum threshold, achieving only 26% of target before entering refunding status. + +## Market Data +- **Outcome:** Failed (Refunding) +- **Total Committed:** $97,535 of $375,000 target (26%) +- **Duration:** 1 day (launched 2026-03-03, closed 2026-03-04) +- **Token:** SAL (Salmon Token) + +## Budget Breakdown +Proposed $25K monthly burn: +- Team: $18,300/month (73%) +- Infrastructure: $4,200/month (17%) +- Growth & Ecosystem: $2,000/month (8%) +- Governance, Legal & Contingency: $500/month (2%) + +## Significance +First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. The failed raise provides empirical evidence that futarchy mechanisms face adoption friction when applied to operational software projects requiring sustained development funding, despite the project's established track record (active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter, $122.5K prior funding). This contrasts with futarchy's demonstrated success in pure capital allocation vehicles and meme coins, suggesting mechanism fit varies significantly by project type. + +The detailed operational planning required (quarterly milestones, burn rate projections, budget breakdowns) despite futarchy governance demonstrates that market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance, requiring traditional corporate governance scaffolding even for futarchy-native projects. + +## Relationship to KB +- [[salmon-wallet]] — parent entity +- [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]] — empirical confirmation +- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — scope expansion evidence +- [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]] — operational scaffolding confirmation diff --git a/entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md b/entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8d9a99f6 --- /dev/null +++ b/entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +--- +type: entity +entity_type: company +name: Salmon Wallet +domain: internet-finance +status: active +founded: 2022 +website: https://salmonwallet.io/ +social: + twitter: https://x.com/salmonwallet + telegram: https://t.me/salmon_wallet + github: https://github.com/salmon-wallet +key_metrics: + prior_funding: "$122,500 (80K bootstrap, 2.5K Serum grant, 40K Eclipse grant)" + futarchy_raise_target: "$375,000" + futarchy_raise_actual: "$97,535" + monthly_burn_rate: "$25,000" +tracked_by: rio +created: 2026-03-11 +--- + +# Salmon Wallet + +Open-source self-custodial cryptocurrency wallet active since 2022, primarily built on Solana with Bitcoin support. Listed on Solana wallet adapter since 2022. Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue. Attempted futarchy-governed fundraise on MetaDAO platform in March 2026, representing first observed wallet infrastructure project using futarchy governance for operational funding. + +## Timeline +- **2022** — Founded, listed on Solana wallet adapter, received $80K bootstrap funding and $2.5K Serum grant +- **2022-2024** — Received $40K Eclipse grant +- **2026-03-03** — [[salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise]] launched on futard.io seeking $375K for 12-month runway +- **2026-03-04** — Fundraise closed in refunding status after raising $97,535 (26% of target) + +## Relationship to KB +- Provides empirical evidence for [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]] +- Demonstrates scope expansion of [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] +- Confirms operational scaffolding requirements in [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]] diff --git a/inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md b/inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md index 5b703394..9e589a80 100644 --- a/inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md +++ b/inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF" date: 2026-03-03 domain: internet-finance format: data -status: unprocessed +status: processed tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana] event_type: launch processed_by: rio @@ -14,6 +14,11 @@ processed_date: 2026-03-11 enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"] extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. Enriches existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges." +processed_by: rio +processed_date: 2026-03-11 +enrichments_applied: ["futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"] +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. No new claims extracted — all insights enrich existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges. Created entities for Salmon Wallet (company) and the fundraise (decision_market) as this represents a significant data point for futarchy mechanism performance in operational software context." --- ## Launch Details @@ -215,3 +220,13 @@ Secondary: - Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF - Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue - Listed on Solana wallet adapter since 2022 + + +## Key Facts +- Salmon Wallet active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter since 2022 +- Prior funding: $122.5K total (80K bootstrap, 2.5K Serum grant, 40K Eclipse grant) +- Futarchy raise: $97,535 of $375,000 target (26%), refunded after 1 day +- Proposed monthly burn: $25K (73% team, 17% infrastructure, 8% growth, 2% governance/legal) +- Token: SAL (Salmon Token), mint: DDPW4sZT9GsSb2mSfY9Yi9EBZGnBQ2LvvJTXCpnLmeta +- Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF +- Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue