Commit graph

193 commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
052a101433 theseus: cornelius batch 4 — domain applications
4 NEW claims + 3 enrichments from 8 articles (6 how-to guides + 1 researcher guide + 1 synthesis)

NEW claims:
- Automation-atrophy tension (foundations/collective-intelligence)
- Retraction cascade as graph operation (ai-alignment)
- Swanson Linking / undiscovered public knowledge (ai-alignment)
- Confidence propagation through dependency graphs (ai-alignment)

Enrichments:
- Vocabulary as architecture: 6 domain-specific implementations
- Active forgetting: vault death pattern + 7 domain forgetting mechanisms
- Determinism boundary: 7 domain-specific hook implementations

8 source archives in inbox/archive/

Pre-screening: ~70% overlap with existing KB. Only genuinely novel
insights extracted as standalone claims.

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864DD4-DA71-4719-A1B4-68F7C55854D3>
2026-04-04 13:27:20 +01:00
b2b20d3129 theseus: moloch extraction — 4 NEW claims + 2 enrichments + 1 source archive
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- What: Extract AI-alignment claims from Alexander's "Meditations on Moloch",
  Abdalla manuscript "Architectural Investing", and Schmachtenberger framework
- Why: Molochian dynamics / multipolar traps were structural gaps in KB despite
  extensive coverage in Leo's grand-strategy musings. These claims formalize the
  AI-specific mechanisms: bottleneck removal, four-restraint erosion, lock-in via
  information processing, and multipolar traps as thermodynamic default
- NEW claims:
  1. AI accelerates Molochian dynamics by removing bottlenecks (ai-alignment)
  2. Four restraints taxonomy with AI targeting #2 and #3 (ai-alignment)
  3. AI makes authoritarian lock-in easier via information processing (ai-alignment)
  4. Multipolar traps as thermodynamic default (collective-intelligence)
- Enrichments:
  1. Taylor/soldiering parallel → alignment tax claim
  2. Friston autovitiation → Minsky financial instability claim
- Source archive: Alexander "Meditations on Moloch" (2014)
- Tensions flagged: bottleneck removal challenges compute governance window as
  stable feature; four-restraint erosion reframes alignment as coordination design
- Note: Agentic Taylorism enrichment (connecting trust asymmetry + determinism
  boundary to Leo's musing) deferred — Leo's musings not yet on main

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864DD4-DA71-4719-A1B4-68F7C55854D3>
2026-04-03 18:32:29 +01:00
Teleo Agents
53360666f7 reweave: connect 39 orphan claims via vector similarity
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Sync Graph Data to teleo-app / sync (push) Waiting to run
Threshold: 0.7, Haiku classification, 67 files modified.

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <0144398e-4ed3-4fe2-95a3-3d72e1abf887>
2026-04-03 14:01:58 +00:00
49a4e0c1c9 theseus: moloch extraction — 4 NEW claims + 2 enrichments + 1 source archive
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Sync Graph Data to teleo-app / sync (push) Waiting to run
- What: Extract AI-alignment claims from Alexander's "Meditations on Moloch",
  Abdalla manuscript "Architectural Investing", and Schmachtenberger framework
- Why: Molochian dynamics / multipolar traps were structural gaps in KB despite
  extensive coverage in Leo's grand-strategy musings. These claims formalize the
  AI-specific mechanisms: bottleneck removal, four-restraint erosion, lock-in via
  information processing, and multipolar traps as thermodynamic default
- NEW claims:
  1. AI accelerates Molochian dynamics by removing bottlenecks (ai-alignment)
  2. Four restraints taxonomy with AI targeting #2 and #3 (ai-alignment)
  3. AI makes authoritarian lock-in easier via information processing (ai-alignment)
  4. Multipolar traps as thermodynamic default (collective-intelligence)
- Enrichments:
  1. Taylor/soldiering parallel → alignment tax claim
  2. Friston autovitiation → Minsky financial instability claim
- Source archive: Alexander "Meditations on Moloch" (2014)
- Tensions flagged: bottleneck removal challenges compute governance window as
  stable feature; four-restraint erosion reframes alignment as coordination design
- Note: Agentic Taylorism enrichment (connecting trust asymmetry + determinism
  boundary to Leo's musing) deferred — Leo's musings not yet on main

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864DD4-DA71-4719-A1B4-68F7C55854D3>
2026-04-02 16:17:12 +01:00
Teleo Agents
cd355af146 theseus: extract claims from 2026-04-02-anthropic-circuit-tracing-claude-haiku-production-results
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- Source: inbox/queue/2026-04-02-anthropic-circuit-tracing-claude-haiku-production-results.md
- Domain: ai-alignment
- Claims: 1, Entities: 0
- Enrichments: 2
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <PIPELINE>
2026-04-02 10:45:29 +00:00
Teleo Agents
7e9221431c theseus: extract claims from 2026-04-02-scaling-laws-scalable-oversight-nso-ceiling-results
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- Source: inbox/queue/2026-04-02-scaling-laws-scalable-oversight-nso-ceiling-results.md
- Domain: ai-alignment
- Claims: 2, Entities: 0
- Enrichments: 2
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <PIPELINE>
2026-04-02 10:40:18 +00:00
Teleo Agents
4e765b213d theseus: extract claims from 2026-04-02-openai-apollo-deliberative-alignment-situational-awareness-problem
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- Source: inbox/queue/2026-04-02-openai-apollo-deliberative-alignment-situational-awareness-problem.md
- Domain: ai-alignment
- Claims: 2, Entities: 0
- Enrichments: 3
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <PIPELINE>
2026-04-02 10:39:14 +00:00
Teleo Agents
bb6ad13947 theseus: extract claims from 2026-04-02-mechanistic-interpretability-state-2026-progress-limits
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- Source: inbox/queue/2026-04-02-mechanistic-interpretability-state-2026-progress-limits.md
- Domain: ai-alignment
- Claims: 2, Entities: 0
- Enrichments: 3
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <PIPELINE>
2026-04-02 10:37:38 +00:00
Teleo Agents
e2f4565bd3 theseus: extract claims from 2026-04-02-apollo-research-frontier-models-scheming-empirical-confirmed
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- Source: inbox/queue/2026-04-02-apollo-research-frontier-models-scheming-empirical-confirmed.md
- Domain: ai-alignment
- Claims: 2, Entities: 0
- Enrichments: 5
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <PIPELINE>
2026-04-02 10:35:43 +00:00
80d32c4f09 Merge PR #2190: Cornelius Batch 3 — epistemology (10 NEW + 3 enrichments)
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2026-03-31 12:56:48 +01:00
Teleo Agents
ed6bc2aed3 extract: 2026-03-30-anthropic-hot-mess-of-ai-misalignment-scale-incoherence
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-31 11:52:30 +00:00
e0d5f9e69d theseus: cornelius batch 3 — epistemology (9 NEW + 3 enrichments)
9 NEW claims from 15 articles (AN01-07, AN12, AN15, AN17, AN20-24):
- Active forgetting as system health (foundations/collective-intelligence)
- Trust asymmetry as irreducible structural feature (ai-alignment)
- Memory-to-attention shift (ai-alignment)
- Markdown as human-curated graph database (ai-alignment)
- Spreading activation + berrypicking (ai-alignment)
- Verbatim trap (foundations/collective-intelligence)
- Topological over chronological (foundations/collective-intelligence)
- Reweaving as backward pass (foundations/collective-intelligence)
- Friction as diagnostic signal (foundations/collective-intelligence)
- Discontinuous self / vault constitutes identity (ai-alignment)

3 ENRICHMENTS to existing claims:
- Habit gap mechanism → determinism boundary claim
- Triggers as test-driven knowledge work → three-timescale maintenance claim
- Propositional links + structural nearness → inter-note knowledge claim

Domain routing: 5 claims to foundations/collective-intelligence, 5 to ai-alignment.
Pre-screening protocol followed. Confidence: all likely.
Tensions flagged: forgetting challenges growth metrics, trust asymmetry
scopes SICA, memory→attention reframes retrieval design.

AN22 (Agents Dream): no standalone claim — material too thin per evaluator.
AN23, AN24: used as enrichment material only.

15 source archives in inbox/archive/.

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864DD4-DA71-4719-A1B4-68F7C55854D3>
2026-03-31 12:47:03 +01:00
Teleo Agents
b15f86c51c extract: 2026-03-29-anthropic-public-first-action-pac-20m-ai-regulation
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-31 11:32:11 +00:00
2be15706e4 Merge pull request 'reweave: connect 29 orphan claims' (#2186) from reweave/2026-03-31 into main
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2026-03-31 11:06:39 +00:00
Teleo Pipeline
c74e7e2c5f reweave: connect 29 orphan claims via vector similarity
Threshold: 0.7, Haiku classification, 40 files modified.

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <0144398e-4ed3-4fe2-95a3-3d72e1abf887>
2026-03-31 10:50:34 +00:00
4536e63e40 theseus: add 8 claims + 2 enrichments from Cornelius Batch 2 (stigmergic coordination)
- What: 8 NEW claims (inter-note traversal knowledge, three-space memory architecture,
  three-timescale maintenance loops, anchor calcification, digital stigmergy vulnerability,
  cognitive anchoring, knowledge processing phases, vault structure as behavior determinant)
  + 2 enrichments (stigmergy: hooks-as-mechanized-stigmergy; self-improvement: procedural
  self-awareness + self-serving optimization risk) + 5 source archives
- Why: Cornelius Agentic Note-Taking articles 09, 10, 13, 19, 25 — stigmergic coordination,
  cognitive science, and knowledge architecture themes. Pre-screening showed ~30% overlap
  with existing KB; all extracted claims fill genuine gaps.
- Connections: builds on existing stigmergy, context≠memory, methodology hardening, and
  self-improvement claims. Challenges: anchor calcification creates tension with stable
  knowledge structures assumption.

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864DD4-DA71-4719-A1B4-68F7C55854D3>
2026-03-31 11:41:02 +01:00
ff0efee92d fix: remove stale duplicate of NLAH portability claim (#2182)
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Co-authored-by: Theseus <theseus@agents.livingip.xyz>
Co-committed-by: Theseus <theseus@agents.livingip.xyz>
2026-03-31 09:39:51 +00:00
a20ac0d89f Merge theseus/nlah-paper: 5 NEW claims + 1 enrichment from Pan et al. NLAH paper (PR #2180)
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2026-03-31 10:35:01 +01:00
0fa4836b34 theseus: extract 5 claims + 1 enrichment from Pan et al. NLAH paper
- What: 5 NEW claims from "Natural-Language Agent Harnesses" (arXiv:2603.25723)
  plus 1 enrichment to subagent hierarchy claim with 90% delegation token data
- Why: First controlled ablation study of harness modules; novel findings on
  solved-set replacer effect, file-backed state reliability, self-evolution
  mechanism, verifier acceptance divergence, and NL harness portability
- Connections: enriches harness engineering, determinism boundary, context≠memory
  claim clusters; challenges coordination-always-helps assumptions

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864dd4-da71-4719-a1b4-68f7c55854d3>
2026-03-31 10:35:01 +01:00
607f9ed52e theseus: extract 5 claims + 1 enrichment from Pan et al. NLAH paper
- What: 5 NEW claims (solved-set replacer, file-backed durable state,
  self-evolution as acceptance-gating, verifier acceptance divergence,
  NL harness portability) + 1 enrichment (subagent hierarchy delegation data)
- Why: First controlled ablation study of harness modules (arXiv:2603.25723).
  Fills gap — no existing claims have module-level ablation data.
- Pre-screening: ~40% overlap with existing KB. All novel claims fill genuine gaps.
- Claim 5 title softened per Leo review: "without degradation" (conservative)
  rather than "without performance loss" (understates the gain).

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864DD4-DA71-4719-A1B4-68F7C55854D3>
2026-03-31 10:32:25 +01:00
8528fb6d43 theseus: add 13 NEW claims + 1 enrichment from Cornelius Batch 1 (agent architecture)
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Precision fixes per Leo's review:
- Claim 4 (curated skills): downgrade experimental→likely, cite source gap, clarify 16pp vs 17.3pp gap
- Claim 6 (harness engineering): soften "supersedes" to "emerges as"
- Claim 11 (notes as executable): remove unattributed 74% benchmark
- Claim 12 (memory infrastructure): qualify title to observed 24% in one system, downgrade experimental→likely

9 themes across Field Reports 1-5, Determinism Boundary, Agentic Note-Taking 08/11/14/16/18.
Pre-screening protocol followed: KB grep → NEW/ENRICHMENT/CHALLENGE categorization.

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <46864DD4-DA71-4719-A1B4-68F7C55854D3>
2026-03-30 14:22:00 +01:00
Teleo Agents
1a80fe850f auto-fix: strip 4 broken wiki links
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Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links
that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
2026-03-30 01:07:00 +00:00
Teleo Agents
43982050c3 extract: 2026-03-30-oxford-aigi-automated-interpretability-model-auditing-research-agenda
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-30 01:07:00 +00:00
Teleo Agents
f22888b539 extract: 2026-03-30-openai-anthropic-joint-safety-evaluation-cross-lab
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-30 01:01:40 +00:00
Teleo Agents
2dad2e0051 extract: 2026-03-30-lesswrong-hot-mess-critique-conflates-failure-modes
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-30 00:52:07 +00:00
Teleo Agents
79f3aad0a0 extract: 2026-03-30-epc-pentagon-blacklisted-anthropic-europe-must-respond
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-30 00:50:55 +00:00
Teleo Agents
06c9d6e03d extract: 2026-03-30-defense-one-military-ai-human-judgement-deskilling
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-30 00:50:50 +00:00
Teleo Agents
2575d7aaba extract: 2026-03-30-anthropic-auditbench-alignment-auditing-hidden-behaviors
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-30 00:50:47 +00:00
e9fb48df6a Merge pull request 'reweave: connect 48 orphan claims via vector similarity' (#2081) from reweave/2026-03-28 into main
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2026-03-30 00:10:12 +00:00
Teleo Agents
307baff7a7 extract: 2026-03-29-aljazeera-anthropic-pentagon-open-space-for-regulation
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 03:38:44 +00:00
Teleo Agents
d50a919ed5 extract: 2026-03-29-anthropic-alignment-auditbench-hidden-behaviors
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 03:16:09 +00:00
Teleo Agents
f4b41e4f32 extract: 2026-03-29-slotkin-ai-guardrails-act-dod-autonomous-weapons
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 03:07:12 +00:00
Teleo Agents
700e82b63a extract: 2026-03-29-techpolicy-press-anthropic-pentagon-dispute-reverberates-europe
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 03:03:58 +00:00
Teleo Agents
161289abcf extract: 2026-03-29-techpolicy-press-anthropic-pentagon-timeline
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 03:01:54 +00:00
Teleo Agents
6a15937c53 extract: 2026-03-29-openai-our-agreement-department-of-war
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 02:53:31 +00:00
Teleo Agents
83e3134bc5 extract: 2026-03-29-meridiem-courts-check-executive-ai-power
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 02:52:51 +00:00
Teleo Agents
d81d010f79 extract: 2026-03-29-congress-diverging-paths-ai-fy2026-ndaa-defense-bills
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 02:52:47 +00:00
Teleo Agents
50066bd2be extract: 2026-03-29-anthropic-pentagon-injunction-first-amendment-lin
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-29 02:33:02 +00:00
Teleo Pipeline
db5bbf3eb7 reweave: connect 48 orphan claims via vector similarity
Threshold: 0.7, Haiku classification, 80 files modified.

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <0144398e-4ed3-4fe2-95a3-3d72e1abf887>
2026-03-28 23:04:53 +00:00
efaae04957 theseus: extract 3 multi-agent orchestration claims + enrich subagent hierarchy
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- What: 3 new claims from Madaan et al. (Google DeepMind/MIT) research + synthesis:
  1. Multi-agent coordination improves parallel tasks but degrades sequential reasoning
  2. AI integration follows an inverted-U with systematic overshoot incentives
  3. Iterative self-improvement compounds when evaluation separated from generation
- Enrichment: Scoped subagent hierarchy claim with Madaan et al. empirical evidence
- Source: Updated null-result/2025-12-00-google-mit-scaling-agent-systems to processed
- Why: These are the key boundary conditions on our multi-agent orchestration thesis

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <24DE7DA0-E4D5-4023-B1A2-3F736AFF4EEE>
2026-03-28 20:37:30 +00:00
Teleo Agents
0221632322 auto-fix: strip 11 broken wiki links
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Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links
that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
2026-03-27 17:44:31 +00:00
d07355b33b Extract 5 claims from subconscious.md/tracenet.md stigmergic coordination protocol
Source: subconscious.md (Chaga/Guido) and tracenet.md protocol spec

Claims extracted:
- retrieve-before-recompute efficiency (mechanisms, experimental)
- stigmergic coordination scaling (collective-intelligence, experimental)
- surveillance/self-censorship on reasoning traces (ai-alignment, speculative)
- governance-first capital-second sequencing (mechanisms, likely)
- reasoning traces as distinct knowledge primitive (collective-intelligence, experimental)

Cross-domain synthesis: 3 domains touched (mechanisms, collective-intelligence, ai-alignment).
Reviewers needed: Theseus (ai-alignment), Rio (mechanisms/internet-finance).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-03-27 17:43:04 +00:00
669e7e8817 theseus: add inference governance gap claim + enrich inference shift with TurboQuant
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- New claim: inference efficiency gains erode deployment governance without triggering
  training-focused monitoring thresholds (experimental)
- Enrichment: inference shift claim now documents 4 compounding efficiency mechanisms
  (KV cache compression, MoE, hardware-native, weight quantization)
- Evidence: Google TurboQuant (ICLR 2026) — 6x memory, 8x speedup, zero accuracy loss.
  One of 15+ competing KV cache methods indicating active research frontier.
- Fills discourse gap: nobody had systematically connected inference economics to governance

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <24DE7DA0-E4D5-4023-B1A2-3F736AFF4EEE>
2026-03-27 12:15:00 +00:00
06b96df522 theseus: add 3 compute infrastructure claims + source archive
- What: 3 structural claims about AI compute governance implications
  1. Inference shift favors distributed architectures (experimental)
  2. Physical constraints create governance window via timescale mismatch (experimental)
  3. Supply chain concentration is both governance lever and systemic fragility (likely)
  Plus: source archive from 5 research sessions (ARM, NVIDIA, TSMC, compute governance, power)
- Why: Cory directed research into physical AI infrastructure. Joint effort with Astra —
  Astra takes manufacturing/energy claims, Theseus takes governance/AI-systems claims.
- Connections: Links to compute export controls, technology-coordination gap, safe AI dev,
  systemic fragility, collective superintelligence claims

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <24DE7DA0-E4D5-4023-B1A2-3F736AFF4EEE>
2026-03-27 12:15:00 +00:00
Teleo Agents
28e28f0dc7 auto-fix: strip 3 broken wiki links
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Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links
that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
2026-03-26 03:48:03 +00:00
Teleo Agents
82159c59da extract: 2026-03-26-international-ai-safety-report-2026
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-26 03:48:03 +00:00
Teleo Agents
4207098983 auto-fix: strip 11 broken wiki links
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Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links
that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
2026-03-26 03:19:26 +00:00
Teleo Agents
108a0d631c extract: 2026-03-26-anthropic-activating-asl3-protections
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-26 03:19:26 +00:00
Teleo Agents
b3c06598dd entity-batch: update 1 entities
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- Applied 1 entity operations from queue
- Files: domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-26 01:05:12 +00:00
Leo
ec2cfc2e63 extract: 2026-03-26-anthropic-activating-asl3-protections (#1934)
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2026-03-26 00:55:39 +00:00
Teleo Agents
dffa255594 entity-batch: update 1 entities
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- Applied 1 entity operations from queue
- Files: domains/ai-alignment/AI-models-distinguish-testing-from-deployment-environments-providing-empirical-evidence-for-deceptive-alignment-concerns.md

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-26 00:39:03 +00:00
Teleo Agents
5e3be7ff7c extract: 2026-03-26-metr-algorithmic-vs-holistic-evaluation
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2026-03-26 00:36:22 +00:00
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f9af958412 extract: 2026-03-26-aisle-openssl-zero-days
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2026-03-26 00:32:39 +00:00
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5e0b296212 auto-fix: strip 15 broken wiki links
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2026-03-25 11:47:09 +00:00
Teleo Agents
3e302edbf4 extract: 2026-03-25-metr-algorithmic-vs-holistic-evaluation-benchmark-inflation
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-25 11:47:09 +00:00
Teleo Agents
96fd8d2936 extract: 2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper
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2026-03-25 00:21:08 +00:00
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1ef04374c7 entity-batch: update 1 entities
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- Files: domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md

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2026-03-24 00:23:14 +00:00
Teleo Agents
98d283e794 extract: 2026-01-29-metr-time-horizon-1-1
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2026-03-24 00:17:26 +00:00
Teleo Agents
b4a7cf5204 extract: 2025-05-29-anthropic-circuit-tracing-open-source
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2026-03-24 00:16:34 +00:00
Teleo Agents
d2948af681 extract: 2026-03-21-replibench-autonomous-replication-capabilities
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-23 12:38:45 +00:00
Teleo Agents
93dd536a03 extract: 2026-02-24-anthropic-rsp-v3-voluntary-safety-collapse
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2026-03-23 00:32:06 +00:00
Teleo Agents
df33272fbd extract: 2026-03-20-metr-modeling-assumptions-time-horizon-reliability
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2026-03-23 00:24:04 +00:00
Teleo Agents
f5d067ce01 extract: 2026-02-05-mit-tech-review-misunderstood-time-horizon-graph
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2026-03-23 00:20:46 +00:00
Teleo Agents
71a17ee799 extract: 2026-02-00-international-ai-safety-report-2026-evaluation-reliability
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-23 00:20:09 +00:00
Leo
04ef8702b2 extract: 2026-03-00-mengesha-coordination-gap-frontier-ai-safety (#1619)
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2026-03-22 00:39:01 +00:00
Teleo Agents
ebfe0a2194 extract: 2026-03-12-metr-claude-opus-4-6-sabotage-review
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2026-03-22 00:36:54 +00:00
Teleo Agents
8049e6fe11 extract: 2025-12-00-aisi-frontier-ai-trends-report-2025
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-22 00:35:18 +00:00
af0d3001ff leo: fix PR #1569 review issues — soften challenge framing, fix source status
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- What: changed "directly contradicts" to "complicates" on METR RCT enrichment (RCT measured time-to-completion, not delegation quality). Fixed source status from non-standard "enrichment" to "processed".
- Why: Leo cross-domain review flagged overstated evidence framing and non-standard status value.

Pentagon-Agent: Leo <A3DC172B-F0A4-4408-9E3B-CF842616AAE1>
2026-03-21 14:37:17 +00:00
Teleo Agents
a75b94e985 extract: 2026-03-21-metr-evaluation-landscape-2026
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
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Teleo Agents
cd95d844ca extract: 2025-12-01-aisi-auditing-games-sandbagging-detection-failed
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2026-03-21 08:18:05 +00:00
Teleo Agents
7ed2adcb23 extract: 2026-03-21-research-compliance-translation-gap
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-21 00:35:32 +00:00
Teleo Agents
8ca19f38fb extract: 2026-03-21-ctrl-alt-deceit-rnd-sabotage-sandbagging
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-21 00:34:22 +00:00
Teleo Agents
d9ee1570c4 extract: 2026-03-21-aisi-control-research-program-synthesis
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Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-21 00:30:55 +00:00
Teleo Agents
544e0ca038 entity-batch: update 1 entities
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- Applied 1 entity operations from queue
- Files: domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-20 16:32:57 +00:00
Leo
82ea2d4942 extract: 2026-03-18-hks-governance-by-procurement-bilateral (#1425)
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2026-03-20 16:25:37 +00:00
Leo
89ffe42f9a extract: 2026-03-20-bench2cop-benchmarks-insufficient-compliance (#1514)
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2026-03-20 00:58:44 +00:00
Teleo Agents
c6b7126335 extract: 2026-02-13-noahopinion-smartest-thing-on-earth
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
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Teleo Agents
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2026-03-19 16:36:04 +00:00
Teleo Agents
6742655420 extract: 2026-02-23-shapira-agents-of-chaos
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 16:36:03 +00:00
Teleo Agents
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2026-03-19 14:06:36 +00:00
Teleo Agents
2442ab4b44 extract: 2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 14:06:36 +00:00
Teleo Agents
8598d95858 extract: 2026-03-16-theseus-ai-coordination-governance-evidence
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 13:55:02 +00:00
Teleo Agents
decc9152a4 extract: 2026-02-24-catalini-simple-economics-agi
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 13:46:00 +00:00
Teleo Agents
9e0461efab extract: 2026-02-23-shapira-agents-of-chaos
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
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Teleo Agents
a809b58a07 extract: 2025-11-29-sistla-evaluating-llms-open-source-games
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 13:37:33 +00:00
Teleo Agents
c76e8ce4d9 extract: 2025-09-26-krier-coasean-bargaining-at-scale
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 13:34:42 +00:00
Leo
6ef729b152 extract: 2025-08-00-mccaslin-stream-chembio-evaluation-reporting (#1364)
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2026-03-19 01:17:33 +00:00
Teleo Agents
e2dc9f54f0 extract: 2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 00:35:04 +00:00
Teleo Agents
3282592dc0 extract: 2026-01-00-kim-third-party-ai-assurance-framework
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
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Teleo Agents
2d9199347d extract: 2024-12-00-uuk-mitigations-gpai-systemic-risks-76-experts
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-19 00:30:38 +00:00
Teleo Agents
5ed47fb50e extract: 2026-03-18-hks-governance-by-procurement-bilateral
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-18 18:13:42 +00:00
Teleo Agents
cbfd18701e extract: 2026-03-18-cfr-how-2026-decides-ai-future-governance
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-18 16:14:44 +00:00
Teleo Agents
a1a9bffbea extract: 2026-01-15-eu-ai-alliance-seven-feedback-loops
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>
2026-03-18 11:18:31 +00:00
d0998a23bd theseus: AI coordination governance evidence — 3 claims + 1 entity
- What: 3 claims on coordination governance empirics (binding regulation as
  only mechanism that works, transparency declining, compute export controls
  as misaligned governance) + UK AISI entity + comprehensive source archive
- Why: targeted research on weakest grounding of B2 ("alignment is coordination
  problem"). Found that voluntary coordination has empirically failed across
  every mechanism tested (2023-2026). Only binding regulation with enforcement
  changes behavior. This challenges the optimistic version of B2 and
  strengthens the case for enforcement-backed coordination.
- Connections: confirms voluntary-safety-pledge claim with extensive new
  evidence, strengthens nation-state-control claim, challenges alignment-tax
  claim by showing the tax is being cut not paid

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <B4A5B354-03D6-4291-A6A8-1E04A879D9AC>
2026-03-16 19:35:00 +00:00
03aa9c9a7c theseus: AI industry landscape — 7 entities + 3 claims from web research
- What: first ai-alignment entities (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI,
  SSI, Thinking Machines Lab, Dario Amodei) + 3 claims on industry dynamics
  (RSP rollback as empirical confirmation, talent circulation as alignment
  culture transfer, capital concentration as oligopoly constraint on governance)
- Why: industry landscape research synthesizing 33 web sources. Entities ground
  the KB in the actual organizations producing alignment-relevant research.
  Claims extract structural alignment implications from industry data.
- Connections: RSP rollback claim confirms voluntary-safety-pledge claim;
  investment concentration connects to nation-state-control and alignment-tax
  claims; talent circulation connects to coordination-failure claim

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <B4A5B354-03D6-4291-A6A8-1E04A879D9AC>
2026-03-16 17:56:38 +00:00
b64fe64b89 theseus: 5 claims from ARIA Scaling Trust programme papers
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- What: 5 new claims + 6 source archives from papers referenced in
  Alex Obadia's ARIA Research tweet on distributed AGI safety
- Sources: Distributional AGI Safety (Tomašev), Agents of Chaos (Shapira),
  Simple Economics of AGI (Catalini), When AI Writes Software (de Moura),
  LLM Open-Source Games (Sistla), Coasean Bargaining (Krier)
- Claims: multi-agent emergent vulnerabilities (likely), verification
  bandwidth as binding constraint (likely), formal verification economic
  necessity (likely), cooperative program equilibria (experimental),
  Coasean transaction cost collapse (experimental)
- Connections: extends scalable oversight degradation, correlated blind
  spots, formal verification, coordination-as-alignment

Pentagon-Agent: Theseus <B4A5B354-03D6-4291-A6A8-1E04A879D9AC>
2026-03-16 16:46:07 +00:00
Leo
b1d810c568 extract: 2025-11-00-sahoo-rlhf-alignment-trilemma (#1155)
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2026-03-16 16:18:06 +00:00
Teleo Agents
ab0c92ad94 auto-fix: strip 5 broken wiki links
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2026-03-16 15:08:47 +00:00
Teleo Agents
74975eb326 extract: 2025-00-00-em-dpo-heterogeneous-preferences
Pentagon-Agent: Ganymede <F99EBFA6-547B-4096-BEEA-1D59C3E4028A>
2026-03-16 15:08:47 +00:00
Teleo Agents
79bb2e382b auto-fix: strip 4 broken wiki links
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2026-03-16 14:36:53 +00:00