extract: 2026-03-18-cfr-how-2026-decides-ai-future-governance

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>

domains/ai-alignment/AI development is a critical juncture in institutional history where the mismatch between capabilities and governance creates a window for transformation.md

@@ -13,6 +13,12 @@ AI development is creating precisely this kind of critical juncture. The mismatc
 
 Critical junctures are windows, not guarantees. They can close. Acemoglu also documents backsliding risk -- even established democracies can experience institutional regression when elites exploit societal divisions. Any movement seeking to build new governance institutions during this juncture must be anti-fragile to backsliding. The institutional question is not just "how do we build better governance?" but "how do we build governance that resists recapture by concentrated interests once the juncture closes?"
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2026-03-18-cfr-how-2026-decides-ai-future-governance]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+
+CFR fellow Michael Horowitz explicitly states that 'large-scale binding international agreements on AI governance are unlikely in 2026,' confirming that the governance window remains open not because of progress but because of coordination failure. Kat Duffy frames 2026 as the year when 'truly operationalizing AI governance will be the sticky wicket'—implementation, not design, is the bottleneck.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/ai-alignment/compute export controls are the most impactful AI governance mechanism but target geopolitical competition not safety leaving capability development unconstrained.md

@@ -24,6 +24,12 @@ This creates a structural asymmetry: the most effective governance mechanism add
 
 For alignment, this means the governance infrastructure that exists (export controls) is misaligned with the governance infrastructure that's needed (safety requirements). The state has demonstrated it CAN govern AI development through binding mechanisms — it chooses to govern distribution, not safety.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2026-03-18-cfr-how-2026-decides-ai-future-governance]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+
+The CFR article confirms diverging governance philosophies between democracies and authoritarian systems, with China's amended Cybersecurity Law emphasizing state oversight while the US pursues standard-setting body engagement. Horowitz notes the US 'must engage in standard-setting bodies to counter China's AI governance influence,' indicating that the most active governance is competitive positioning rather than safety coordination.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/ai-alignment/only binding regulation with enforcement teeth changes frontier AI lab behavior because every voluntary commitment has been eroded abandoned or made conditional on competitor behavior when commercially inconvenient.md

@@ -36,6 +36,12 @@ Voluntary safety commitments follow a predictable trajectory: announced with fan
 
 This pattern confirms [[voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure because unilateral commitments are structurally punished when competitors advance without equivalent constraints]] with far more evidence than previously available. It also implies that [[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]] is correct in diagnosis but insufficient as a solution — coordination through voluntary mechanisms has empirically failed. The question becomes: what coordination mechanisms have enforcement authority without requiring state coercion?
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2026-03-18-cfr-how-2026-decides-ai-future-governance]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+
+The EU AI Act's enforcement mechanisms (penalties up to €35 million or 7% of global turnover) and US state-level rules taking effect across 2026 represent the shift from voluntary commitments to binding regulation. The article frames 2026 as the year regulatory frameworks collide with actual deployment at scale, confirming that enforcement, not voluntary pledges, is the governance mechanism with teeth.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/entertainment/creator-owned-streaming-infrastructure-has-reached-commercial-scale-with-430M-annual-creator-revenue-across-13M-subscribers.md

@@ -34,22 +34,28 @@ Dropout reached 1M+ subscribers by October 2025. Nebula revenue more than double
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (confirm)
-*Source: [[2026-03-01-multiple-creator-economy-owned-revenue-statistics]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+*Source: 2026-03-01-multiple-creator-economy-owned-revenue-statistics | Added: 2026-03-16*
 
 88% of high-earning creators now leverage their own websites and 75% have membership communities, showing that owned infrastructure has become standard practice for successful creators, not an experimental edge case.
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (extend)
-*Source: [[2026-03-01-cvleconomics-creator-owned-platforms-future-media-work]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+*Source: 2026-03-01-cvleconomics-creator-owned-platforms-future-media-work | Added: 2026-03-16*
 
 Dropout specifically generates $80-90M annual revenue with 1M+ subscribers, representing 18-21% of the total $430M creator-owned streaming market. This single-platform data point confirms the category-level aggregates and provides unit economics: $80-90 ARPU, 40-45% EBITDA margins, $3.0-3.3M revenue per employee.
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (extend)
-*Source: [[2025-10-01-variety-dropout-superfan-tier-1m-subscribers]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+*Source: 2025-10-01-variety-dropout-superfan-tier-1m-subscribers | Added: 2026-03-16*
 
 Dropout crossed 1M paid subscribers in October 2025 with 31% YoY growth, representing ARR 'north of $30M' at 40-45% EBITDA margins. This adds a major data point: single creator-owned platform now at $30M+ ARR with 40 employees (~$750K revenue per employee), confirming the commercial viability at scale.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2024-00-00-markrmason-dropout-streaming-model-community-economics]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+
+Dropout contributes $30M+ ARR to the indie streaming category as of 2023, with 1M+ subscribers by October 2025. Platform is profitable and distributed profit sharing to all contributors earning $1+ in 2023. This adds another data point to the commercial scale thesis for creator-owned streaming.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/entertainment/indie-streaming-platforms-emerged-as-category-by-2024-with-convergent-structural-patterns-across-content-verticals.md

@@ -32,10 +32,16 @@ The timing matters: this is the first major entertainment trade publication to a
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (extend)
-*Source: [[2025-10-01-variety-dropout-superfan-tier-1m-subscribers]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+*Source: 2025-10-01-variety-dropout-superfan-tier-1m-subscribers | Added: 2026-03-16*
 
 Critical Role's Beacon launched May 2024 at $5.99/month and experienced ~20% Twitch subscriber migration post-launch, showing owned platform adoption even for established creators with large platform audiences. Beacon and Dropout now collaborating on talent (Brennan Lee Mulligan) rather than competing.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2024-00-00-markrmason-dropout-streaming-model-community-economics]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+
+Dropout reached $30M+ ARR and profitability in 2023 as a niche TTRPG/game show platform. Dimension 20 sold out Madison Square Garden in January 2025. This adds TTRPG actual play to the indie streaming category alongside other verticals, with similar patterns: niche focus, subscription-first, organic social distribution.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/health/federal-budget-scoring-methodology-systematically-undervalues-preventive-interventions-because-10-year-window-excludes-long-term-savings.md

@@ -41,16 +41,22 @@ The claim that budget scoring "systematically" undervalues prevention requires e
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (confirm)
-*Source: [[2024-11-01-aspe-medicare-anti-obesity-medication-coverage]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+*Source: 2024-11-01-aspe-medicare-anti-obesity-medication-coverage | Added: 2026-03-16*
 
 The CBO vs. ASPE divergence on Medicare GLP-1 coverage provides concrete evidence: CBO projects $35B in additional spending (2026-2034) using budget scoring methodology, while ASPE projects net savings of $715M over 10 years using clinical economics methodology that includes downstream event avoidance. The $35.7B gap between these estimates demonstrates how budget scoring rules structurally disadvantage preventive interventions. CBO uses conservative uptake assumptions and doesn't fully count avoided hospitalizations and disease progression within the 10-year window, while ASPE includes 38,950 CV events avoided and 6,180 deaths avoided. Both are technically correct but answer different questions—budget impact vs. clinical economics.
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (challenge)
-*Source: [[2025-01-01-gimm-hoffman-chw-rct-scoping-review]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+*Source: 2025-01-01-gimm-hoffman-chw-rct-scoping-review | Added: 2026-03-18*
 
 IMPaCT's $2.47 Medicaid ROI within the same fiscal year demonstrates that at least one category of preventive intervention (CHW programs) generates returns fast enough to be captured within annual budget cycles, not just 10-year windows. This suggests the scoring methodology problem may be less severe for interventions with rapid return profiles.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2024-10-31-cms-vbid-model-termination-food-medicine]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+
+VBID termination was driven by $2.3B excess costs in CY2021-2022, measured within a short window that could not capture long-term savings from food-as-medicine interventions. CMS cited 'unprecedented' excess costs as justification, demonstrating how short-term cost accounting drives policy decisions even for preventive interventions with strong theoretical long-term ROI.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/space-development/power is the binding constraint on all space operations because every capability from ISRU to manufacturing to life support is power-limited.md

@@ -24,6 +24,12 @@ Every other space business — manufacturing, mining, refueling, habitats — is
 
 Astrobotic's LunaGrid is the first commercial attempt to solve the lunar power constraint with a power-as-a-service model. LunaGrid-Lite will demonstrate 1 kW transmission over 500m of cable in 2026-2027, with full commissioning of a 10 kW VSAT system at the lunar south pole in 2028. The $34.6M NASA contract and Honda partnership for regenerative fuel cells (to survive 14-day lunar nights) confirms that power infrastructure is the critical path for sustained lunar operations.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2026-03-18-astrobotic-lunagrid-lite-cdr-flight-model]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
+
+LunaGrid-Lite completed CDR in August 2025 and is fabricating flight hardware for a mid-2026 lunar deployment. The system will demonstrate 1 kW power transmission over 500m of cable. However, the scaling roadmap reveals a critical gap: 1 kW demo (2026) → 10 kW VSAT (2028) → 50 kW VSAT-XL (later). Commercial-scale He-3 extraction requires ~1.2 MW based on Interlune's excavator specs (100 tonnes/hour at 10x less power than 12 MW heat-based systems). This creates a 5-7 year gap between LunaGrid's demonstration capability and extraction-scale power requirements, making power availability a binding constraint on the 2029 pilot plant timeline unless supplemented by nuclear fission surface power.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2024-00-00-markrmason-dropout-streaming-model-community-economics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
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+      "voluntary-premium-subscription-tiers-align-fan-incentives-with-creator-success-without-ownership-infrastructure.md:stripped_wiki_link:community-ownership-accelerates-growth-through-aligned-evang",
+      "voluntary-premium-subscription-tiers-align-fan-incentives-with-creator-success-without-ownership-infrastructure.md:stripped_wiki_link:fanchise-management-is-a-stack-of-increasing-fan-engagement-",
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+      "niche-subscription-platforms-achieve-profitability-through-creative-stability-not-scale-when-business-model-is-radically-boring.md:stripped_wiki_link:creator-owned-streaming-infrastructure-has-reached-commercia"
+    ],
+    "rejections": [
+      "voluntary-premium-subscription-tiers-align-fan-incentives-with-creator-success-without-ownership-infrastructure.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
+      "niche-subscription-platforms-achieve-profitability-through-creative-stability-not-scale-when-business-model-is-radically-boring.md:no_frontmatter"
+    ]
+  },
+  "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+  "date": "2026-03-18"
+}

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2024-10-31-cms-vbid-model-termination-food-medicine.json

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
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+      ]
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+      "cms-vbid-termination-removes-food-as-medicine-payment-infrastructure-while-ssbci-replacement-excludes-low-income-eligibility.md:stripped_wiki_link:value-based-care-transitions-stall-at-the-payment-boundary-b",
+      "cms-vbid-termination-removes-food-as-medicine-payment-infrastructure-while-ssbci-replacement-excludes-low-income-eligibility.md:stripped_wiki_link:SDOH-interventions-show-strong-ROI-but-adoption-stalls-becau",
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+      "food-as-medicine-policy-rhetoric-diverges-from-payment-infrastructure-as-maha-movement-coincides-with-vbid-termination.md:stripped_wiki_link:value-based-care-transitions-stall-at-the-payment-boundary-b",
+      "food-as-medicine-policy-rhetoric-diverges-from-payment-infrastructure-as-maha-movement-coincides-with-vbid-termination.md:stripped_wiki_link:federal-budget-scoring-methodology-systematically-undervalue"
+    ],
+    "rejections": [
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+      "food-as-medicine-policy-rhetoric-diverges-from-payment-infrastructure-as-maha-movement-coincides-with-vbid-termination.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
+    ]
+  },
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+  "date": "2026-03-18"
+}

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-18-cfr-how-2026-decides-ai-future-governance.json

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
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+  "rejected_claims": [
+    {
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+      ]
+    }
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+      "legal-accountability-frameworks-cannot-assign-responsibility-for-autonomous-ai-decisions-without-identifiable-human-authors.md:stripped_wiki_link:coding agents cannot take accountability for mistakes which "
+    ],
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+      "legal-accountability-frameworks-cannot-assign-responsibility-for-autonomous-ai-decisions-without-identifiable-human-authors.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
+    ]
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+  "date": "2026-03-18"
+}

inbox/queue/2024-00-00-markrmason-dropout-streaming-model-community-economics.md

@@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2024-00-00
 domain: entertainment
 secondary_domains: []
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: medium
 tags: [dropout, streaming, community-economics, subscription, superfan, dimension-20, TTRPG, actual-play, indie-streaming]
+processed_by: clay
+processed_date: 2026-03-18
+enrichments_applied: ["indie-streaming-platforms-emerged-as-category-by-2024-with-convergent-structural-patterns-across-content-verticals.md", "creator-owned-streaming-infrastructure-has-reached-commercial-scale-with-430M-annual-creator-revenue-across-13M-subscribers.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -64,3 +68,15 @@ Substack analysis of Dropout's streaming business model. Published approximately
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[community ownership accelerates growth through aligned evangelism not passive holding]]
 WHY ARCHIVED: Dropout is the strongest counter-evidence to the assumption that community economics requires Web3 — subscription models can produce equivalent alignment. Key data point for scoping the "ownership" claim.
 EXTRACTION HINT: Extract the superfan tier / voluntary over-payment as the core novel observation; use the financial data ($30M+ ARR, profitable, profit-sharing) to substantiate claims about community economics without blockchain
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Dropout ARR: $30M+ (2023)
+- Dropout subscribers: 1M+ (October 2025)
+- Dropout subscriber growth: 100% in 2023
+- Dropout superfan tier price: $129.99/year (launched 2025)
+- Dropout standard subscription: ~$60-70/year
+- Dropout first paid marketing: late 2022
+- Dimension 20 sold out Madison Square Garden (January 2025)
+- Brennan Lee Mulligan signed 3-year Dropout deal while joining Critical Role Campaign 4
+- Dropout distributed profit sharing to anyone earning $1+ in 2023

inbox/queue/2024-10-31-cms-vbid-model-termination-food-medicine.md

@@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date: 2024-10-31
 domain: health
 secondary_domains: [internet-finance]
 format: announcement
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: high
 tags: [vbid, cms, medicare-advantage, food-as-medicine, payment-policy, supplemental-benefits, ssbci]
 flagged_for_rio: ["CMS VBID termination is a major payment model policy shift — intersects with Rio's VBC and MA economics analysis"]
+processed_by: vida
+processed_date: 2026-03-18
+enrichments_applied: ["federal-budget-scoring-methodology-systematically-undervalues-preventive-interventions-because-10-year-window-excludes-long-term-savings.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -68,3 +72,13 @@ CMS announced termination of the Medicare Advantage Value-Based Insurance Design
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: The structural misalignment claim in VBC (payment boundary stalls) — this is a new instance where the payment infrastructure for non-clinical intervention is contracting
 WHY ARCHIVED: Policy event that changes the funding landscape for food-as-medicine — essential context for any claim about FIM scalability or the attractor state toward prevention
 EXTRACTION HINT: Extract the payment mechanism claim (VBID ends, SSBCI excludes low-income) as a concrete policy-state change. Also flag the MAHA rhetoric vs. funding reality as a cross-domain political economy observation.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- VBID excess costs: $2.3 billion in CY2021, $2.2 billion in CY2022
+- ~2,000 MA plans participated in VBID at peak
+- Food/nutrition assistance was the most common VBID supplemental benefit in 2024
+- 6 of 8 states with active 1115 waivers for food-as-medicine programs were placed under CMS review
+- VBID termination announced by Biden administration October/November 2024
+- VBID ends December 31, 2025
+- SSBCI (replacement pathway) does not allow eligibility based on low income or socioeconomic disadvantage

inbox/queue/2026-03-18-astrobotic-griffin1-july-2026-interlune-camera.md

@@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2025-10-28
 domain: space-development
 secondary_domains: []
 format: news
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: high
 tags: [clps, griffin, astrobotic, interlune, lunar-landing, he3-mapping, viper-replacement, landing-reliability]
+processed_by: astra
+processed_date: 2026-03-18
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -58,3 +61,15 @@ Astrobotic delayed its Griffin Mission One (GM1/Griffin-1) lunar lander to no ea
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: CLPS landing reliability claim (from prior research session — 1 of 5 clean success rate)
 WHY ARCHIVED: Critical milestone for He-3 extraction commercial case and LunaGrid power demo; the correlated risk (both on same lander) is the key insight for KB
 EXTRACTION HINT: The double-payload concentration risk (He-3 camera + LunaGrid-Lite both on Griffin-1) is a novel observation that creates a claim about infrastructure dependency concentration in early lunar commercial activity.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Astrobotic Griffin-1 delayed from 2025 to NET July 2026
+- Griffin-1 CLPS task order value: $322M
+- Griffin-1 carries FLIP rover (Venturi Astrolab), Interlune multispectral camera, LunaGrid-Lite, and NASA/ESA/commercial payloads
+- Griffin-1 target: lunar south pole near permanently shadowed regions
+- Griffin-1 launch vehicle: SpaceX Falcon Heavy
+- Griffin-1 replaces cancelled VIPER mission (cancelled July 2024)
+- Current He-3 concentration estimates: 1.4-15 ppb in sunlit regolith, possibly 50 ppb in permanently shadowed regions (from orbital remote sensing only)
+- Astrobotic Peregrine mission failed January 2024 due to propellant leak
+- Griffin lander is first-generation hardware with no flight heritage

inbox/queue/2026-03-18-astrobotic-lunagrid-lite-cdr-flight-model.md

@@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2025-08-20
 domain: space-development
 secondary_domains: []
 format: press-release
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: high
 tags: [lunar-power, lunagrid, astrobotic, infrastructure, isru-enabler, power-constraint]
+processed_by: astra
+processed_date: 2026-03-18
+enrichments_applied: ["power is the binding constraint on all space operations because every capability from ISRU to manufacturing to life support is power-limited.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -58,3 +62,15 @@ Astrobotic announced in August 2025 that LunaGrid-Lite completed Critical Design
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[power is the binding constraint on all space operations because every capability from ISRU to manufacturing to life support is power-limited]]
 WHY ARCHIVED: Direct evidence of commercial lunar power infrastructure progress; critical prerequisite for He-3 extraction and other surface ISRU; the 1kW→50kW scaling timeline is a key constraint on commercial lunar operations
 EXTRACTION HINT: The key insight is the scaling gap — 1kW demo (2026) vs. extraction-scale requirements (~1 MW+). This creates a timeline tension: Interlune's 2029 pilot plant would need more power than LunaGrid can deliver by then unless nuclear power (fission surface power) supplements the solar system.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- LunaGrid-Lite CDR completed August 2025
+- LunaGrid-Lite will transmit 1 kW over 500m of cable
+- LunaGrid-Lite deployment target: mid-2026
+- NASA contract value for LunaGrid-Lite: $34.6M
+- LunaGrid VSAT planned for 2028 with 10 kW capacity at lunar south pole
+- LunaGrid VSAT-XL planned for 50 kW capacity (timeline unspecified)
+- Honda partnership for regenerative fuel cells to survive 14-day lunar night
+- System Integration Review (SIR) planned for Q4 2025
+- Flight-ready target: Q2 2026

inbox/queue/2026-03-18-cfr-how-2026-decides-ai-future-governance.md

@@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2026-03-18
 domain: ai-alignment
 secondary_domains: []
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: medium
 tags: [governance, international-coordination, EU-AI-Act, enforcement, geopolitics, 2026-inflection]
+processed_by: theseus
+processed_date: 2026-03-18
+enrichments_applied: ["AI development is a critical juncture in institutional history where the mismatch between capabilities and governance creates a window for transformation.md", "compute export controls are the most impactful AI governance mechanism but target geopolitical competition not safety leaving capability development unconstrained.md", "only binding regulation with enforcement teeth changes frontier AI lab behavior because every voluntary commitment has been eroded abandoned or made conditional on competitor behavior when commercially inconvenient.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -61,3 +65,11 @@ PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[AI development is a critical juncture in institutional his
 WHY ARCHIVED: Provides establishment policy view on 2026 AI governance landscape. Most valuable for confirming the international coordination failure (binding agreements unlikely). The legal accountability gap for autonomous AI decisions may be worth extracting.
 
 EXTRACTION HINT: Use for evidence enrichment on coordination gap claims. The legal accountability claim ("autonomous AI, no human author") may be worth extracting if not already in KB.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- EU AI Act penalties: up to €35 million or 7% of global turnover
+- China amended Cybersecurity Law in 2026 emphasizing state oversight
+- US 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' appropriates billions for Pentagon AI priorities
+- US state-level AI rules taking effect across 2026
+- Michael Horowitz (CFR fellow) states 'large-scale binding international agreements on AI governance are unlikely in 2026'