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8f7aaca6ee vida: extract from 2026-01-00-commonwealth-fund-risk-adjustment-ma-explainer.md
- Source: inbox/archive/2026-01-00-commonwealth-fund-risk-adjustment-ma-explainer.md
- Domain: health
- Extracted by: headless extraction cron (worker 5)

Pentagon-Agent: Vida <HEADLESS>
2026-03-12 05:28:22 +00:00
9 changed files with 172 additions and 203 deletions

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@ -38,38 +38,25 @@ This is a proxy inertia story. Since [[proxy inertia is the most reliable predic
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2026-01-00-commonwealth-fund-risk-adjustment-ma-explainer]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
**V28 + Chart Review Exclusion: Dual Reform Structure**
(extend) **V28 + Chart Review as Complementary Reforms:**
The Commonwealth Fund report provides mechanical detail on how V28 and chart review exclusion work as complementary rather than redundant reforms:
- V28 (2024-2026 phase-in) reduces diagnosis codes mapping to HCCs, projected $7.6B savings in 2024
- Chart review exclusion (proposed 2027) eliminates retrospective code-mining, projected >$7B savings in 2027
- Together they target both coding breadth (what can be coded) and coding method (how it gets coded)
- Industry warns of benefit cuts and market exits if combined with flat rates, suggesting fundamental economic restructuring
- The reforms close different escape routes: V28 prevents adaptation via intensified chart review; chart review exclusion prevents adaptation via aggressive encounter-based coding
The Commonwealth Fund source reveals these are complementary reforms targeting different dimensions of risk adjustment gaming:
- **V28 (what gets coded):** Significantly decreased diagnosis codes mapping to HCCs, increased number of HCCs for greater granularity. Phase-in 2024-2026, complete by 2026. CMS projected savings: $7.6 billion in 2024 alone.
- **Chart review exclusion (how it gets coded):** Excludes all diagnoses from unlinked chart review records (not tied to documented service). Projected savings: >$7 billion in 2027.
- **Combined impact:** Most significant structural reform to MA risk adjustment since program inception. Industry warns of benefit cuts and market exits if combined with flat rates.
**Three Systematic Gaming Mechanisms Targeted:**
1. **Upcoding:** Submitting more/higher-severity diagnoses than FFS would capture; coding chronic conditions annually regardless of active treatment; coding suspected diagnoses as confirmed.
2. **Chart reviews:** Retrospective record review by coding specialists (not treating clinicians) to find additional codeable diagnoses not documented during encounters; exists solely to extract HCC codes from historical documentation.
3. **In-home health assessments:** Visits designed to capture diagnosis codes, not treat patients; conducted by non-treating clinicians performing comprehensive condition reviews; generate codes that would never appear in routine FFS care.
**Empirical Foundation: RADV Audit Evidence**
- Risk adjustment data validation (RADV) audits find 70% of diagnosis codes not supported by medical records
- This unsupported rate indicates systematic gaming rather than incidental documentation variance
- Industry survival depends on CMS not auditing at scale; comprehensive RADV enforcement would eliminate most of the risk-adjusted payment differential that makes MA profitable
- If 70% of codes are unsupported, the current risk adjustment system is fundamentally broken as a payment integrity mechanism
**Enforcement Context**
(extend) **RADV Audit Evidence of Systemic Gaming:**
- Risk Adjustment Data Validation audits find 70% of diagnosis codes not supported by medical records
- This unsupported rate reveals MA risk adjustment is built on codes that fail verification at scale
- Industry viability depends on CMS not auditing at scale, suggesting the system cannot survive enforcement
(extend) **Enforcement Context and Bipartisan Priority:**
- Nearly every major MA plan has faced or settled upcoding allegations
- DOJ uses False Claims Act against unsupported diagnostic codes
- No UPCODE Act reintroduced in Congress (March 2025) with bipartisan support
- DOJ uses False Claims Act against unsupported codes
- No UPCODE Act reintroduced March 2025 with bipartisan support
- 2025 CMS administrator confirmed rooting out upcoding is bipartisan priority
**Structural Significance**
The distinction between V28 (what gets coded) and chart review exclusion (how it gets coded) is structurally important—they're complementary reforms targeting different dimensions of the same gaming behavior. V28 narrows the scope of codeable conditions; chart review exclusion eliminates a primary method of capturing those codes. Together, they represent the most comprehensive attack on MA risk adjustment gaming since the program's inception.
---
Relevant Notes:

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---
type: claim
domain: health
description: "OIG audits find majority of MA risk adjustment codes cannot be supported by medical records when reviewed"
confidence: likely
source: "Commonwealth Fund (2026), citing CMS Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audit results"
created: 2026-03-11
---
# Chart review upcoding generates 70 percent unsupported diagnosis rate in CMS RADV audits
Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits conducted by CMS find that 70% of diagnosis codes submitted by Medicare Advantage plans cannot be supported by medical records. This finding reveals that the majority of MA risk adjustment—the mechanism through which plans receive higher payments for sicker patients—is built on codes that don't survive audit scrutiny.
The industry's economic viability depends on CMS not auditing at scale. If the 70% unsupported rate holds across the MA population, it suggests systematic gaming rather than isolated coding errors.
## Evidence
**RADV audit findings:**
- CMS conducts Risk Adjustment Data Validation audits of MA plan diagnosis submissions
- 70% of diagnosis codes found not supported by medical records
- This rate suggests systematic practice rather than random error
- Industry viability depends on CMS not scaling audit capacity
**How chart reviews generate unsupported codes:**
- **Chart reviews**: retrospective review of medical records to find additional codeable diagnoses not documented during encounters
- **In-home health assessments**: visits specifically designed to capture diagnosis codes, not treat patients
- Both practices generate codes disconnected from actual clinical care
- Codes submitted to CMS for risk score calculation and payment adjustment
- When audited, medical records don't support the diagnosis as actively managed condition
**Enforcement context:**
- Nearly every major MA plan has faced or settled upcoding allegations
- DOJ uses False Claims Act against unsupported diagnostic codes
- No UPCODE Act reintroduced in Congress (March 2025) with bipartisan support
- 2025 CMS administrator confirmed rooting out upcoding is bipartisan priority
## Why This Matters
If 70% of risk adjustment codes are unsupported, the MA payment system is fundamentally built on a foundation that cannot survive scaled enforcement. The 2027 chart review exclusion directly targets this vulnerability by eliminating the primary mechanism (retrospective code-mining) that generates unsupported diagnoses.
---
Relevant Notes:
- [[CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring]]
Topics:
- [[domains/health/_map]]

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---
type: claim
domain: health
description: "2027 CMS proposal to exclude unlinked chart review diagnoses represents the most direct regulatory attack on MA upcoding methodology since RADV audits began"
confidence: likely
source: "Commonwealth Fund, How Risk Adjustment Affects Payment for Medicare Advantage Plans (2026)"
created: 2026-03-11
---
# CMS chart review exclusion saves 7 billion dollars annually by eliminating retrospective code-mining unlinked to medical encounters
CMS proposes excluding all diagnoses from unlinked chart review records—retrospective medical record reviews not tied to documented medical services—from risk adjustment calculations starting in 2027. Diagnoses from chart reviews would only be allowed if directly linked to an actual medical encounter with documented clinical service.
This targets the specific practice of retrospective code-mining: MA plans systematically reviewing old medical records to extract additional diagnosis codes that increase risk scores without any contemporaneous clinical documentation or treatment. CMS projects this exclusion will save over $7 billion in 2027 alone.
The reform attacks the *method* of upcoding rather than the *scope* of codeable diagnoses. While V28 narrows what conditions qualify for risk adjustment, chart review exclusion eliminates a primary mechanism by which plans systematically capture codes that FFS Medicare would never document. Together, these reforms represent the most comprehensive structural change to MA payment integrity since the program's inception.
## Evidence
**CMS 2027 chart review exclusion proposal:**
- Excludes all diagnoses from unlinked chart review records (not tied to documented service)
- Diagnoses from chart reviews allowed ONLY if tied to actual medical encounter
- Projected savings: >$7 billion in 2027
- Targets retrospective code-mining that inflates risk scores without clinical justification
**Industry context:**
- In-home health assessments: visits specifically designed to capture diagnosis codes, not treat patients
- Chart reviews: retrospective review of medical records to find additional codeable diagnoses not documented during encounters
- Industry warns of benefit cuts and market exits if combined with flat rates and V28 implementation
**Complementary reform structure:**
V28 (what gets coded) + chart review exclusion (how it gets coded) = dual reform changing MA economics at both scope and method levels.
---
Relevant Notes:
- [[CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring]]
Topics:
- [[domains/health/_map]]

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---
type: claim
domain: health
description: "V28 risk adjustment model narrows HCC mappings to eliminate upcoding pathways that inflated MA payments under V24"
confidence: likely
source: "Commonwealth Fund, How Risk Adjustment Affects Payment for Medicare Advantage Plans (2026)"
created: 2026-03-11
---
# CMS-HCC V28 model reduces diagnosis code mappings eliminating $7.6 billion in annual MA overpayments
The transition from V24 to V28 risk adjustment models represents the most significant structural reform to Medicare Advantage payment mechanics since program inception. V28 significantly decreased the number of diagnosis codes that map to Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) while increasing the total number of HCC categories, making it harder for plans to inflate risk scores through broad diagnostic coding.
CMS estimated V28 would save $7.6 billion in 2024 alone. The model is being phased in from 2024-2026, with complete implementation by 2026. This reform targets coding breadth—the sheer number of diagnoses that can generate payment increases—rather than coding method.
## Evidence
**V24 to V28 structural changes:**
- V24 had broader diagnosis-to-HCC mappings that allowed more codes to generate payment
- V28 significantly decreased diagnosis codes mapping to HCCs while increasing number of HCC categories
- Phase-in period: 2024-2026 gradual transition, complete implementation by 2026
- CMS projected $7.6 billion savings in 2024 from V28 alone
**How risk adjustment creates payment inflation:**
- CMS pays MA plans monthly per-member capitation adjusted by risk scores
- Risk scores derived from diagnosis codes (HCCs)
- Each HCC has a coefficient that increases payment for sicker patients
- Plans submit diagnosis codes annually; CMS calculates risk scores
- More/higher-severity diagnoses = higher risk scores = higher payments
**Why V28 targets coding breadth:**
By reducing the number of diagnosis codes that map to HCCs, V28 eliminates entire categories of marginal diagnoses that plans previously could submit for payment adjustment. This is distinct from enforcement (auditing existing codes) or method restrictions (limiting how codes are captured). V28 changes the fundamental mapping structure itself.
## Relationship to Chart Review Exclusion
V28 and the 2027 chart review exclusion are complementary reforms, not redundant. V28 targets *what* can be coded (fewer mappable diagnoses). Chart review exclusion targets *how* it gets coded (no retrospective code-mining). Together they address both the breadth and method of systematic upcoding.
---
Relevant Notes:
- [[CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring]]
- [[value-based care transitions stall at the payment boundary because 60 percent of payments touch value metrics but only 14 percent bear full risk]]
Topics:
- [[domains/health/_map]]

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---
type: claim
domain: health
description: "CMS-HCC V28 model implementation represents the most significant structural reform to Medicare Advantage risk adjustment coding breadth since program inception"
confidence: likely
source: "Commonwealth Fund, How Risk Adjustment Affects Payment for Medicare Advantage Plans (2026)"
created: 2026-03-11
---
# CMS-HCC V28 model reduces diagnosis-to-HCC mappings, saving 7.6 billion dollars annually by narrowing codeable conditions
The transition from V24 to V28 risk adjustment model fundamentally restructures which diagnoses generate payment increases for Medicare Advantage plans. V28 significantly decreased the number of diagnosis codes that map to Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) while increasing the total number of HCC categories, creating a more granular but narrower coding framework.
CMS estimated V28 would save $7.6 billion in 2024 alone through this tightened mapping structure. The reform targets coding breadth—what conditions qualify for risk adjustment—rather than coding method. Implementation follows a three-year phase-in from 2024-2026, with complete transition by 2026.
This represents the first major recalibration of the risk adjustment formula's scope since Medicare Advantage became the dominant enrollment model. By reducing mappable diagnoses, V28 directly constrains plans' ability to generate higher risk scores through comprehensive diagnosis capture, regardless of documentation quality.
## Evidence
**V24 to V28 structural changes:**
- V24: broader diagnosis-to-HCC mappings with fewer total HCC categories
- V28: significantly decreased diagnosis codes mapping to HCCs, increased number of HCCs for greater granularity
- Phase-in: 2024-2026 gradual transition, complete implementation by 2026
- CMS projected savings: $7.6 billion in 2024 alone from tightened mappings
**Mechanism distinction:**
V28 targets *what gets coded* (diagnosis eligibility for HCCs), while chart review exclusion targets *how it gets coded* (retrospective code-mining methods). These are complementary reforms addressing different dimensions of risk adjustment gaming.
**Why this matters:**
The risk adjustment system is the mechanism through which MA plans extract above-FFS payments. V28 narrows the scope of codeable conditions, directly reducing the payment premium MA receives over FFS Medicare regardless of documentation practices.
---
Relevant Notes:
- [[CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring]]
Topics:
- [[domains/health/_map]]

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---
type: claim
domain: health
description: "OIG audit findings suggest the majority of MA risk adjustment depends on codes that cannot survive documentation review, indicating systematic rather than incidental gaming"
confidence: likely
source: "Commonwealth Fund, How Risk Adjustment Affects Payment for Medicare Advantage Plans (2026); OIG RADV audit data"
created: 2026-03-11
---
# CMS RADV audits find 70 percent of MA diagnosis codes unsupported by medical records, revealing systematic upcoding at scale
Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits conducted by CMS's Office of Inspector General find that 70% of diagnosis codes submitted by Medicare Advantage plans for risk adjustment are not supported by medical records upon review. This unsupported diagnosis rate indicates that the majority of MA risk adjustment—and therefore the payment premium MA plans receive over FFS Medicare—is built on codes that fail documentation standards.
This is not incidental coding error or marginal interpretation differences. A 70% unsupported rate suggests systematic code capture designed to maximize risk scores rather than document clinical reality. The industry's economic viability depends on CMS not auditing at scale, as comprehensive RADV enforcement would eliminate most of the risk-adjusted payment differential that makes MA profitable.
The finding provides empirical foundation for both V28 implementation and chart review exclusion: if 70% of submitted codes cannot survive audit, the current risk adjustment system is fundamentally broken as a payment integrity mechanism.
## Evidence
**RADV audit findings:**
- Risk adjustment data validation (RADV): CMS audits find 70% of diagnosis codes not supported by medical records
- This rate indicates systematic gaming rather than incidental documentation variance
- Industry survival depends on CMS not auditing at scale
**Enforcement context:**
- Nearly every major MA plan has faced or settled upcoding allegations
- DOJ uses False Claims Act against unsupported diagnostic codes
- No UPCODE Act reintroduced in Congress (March 2025) with bipartisan support
- 2025 CMS administrator confirmed rooting out upcoding is bipartisan priority
**Structural implication:**
If 70% of codes are unsupported, comprehensive RADV enforcement would eliminate most risk-adjusted payment differential, fundamentally changing MA economics. Current MA profitability depends on selective rather than comprehensive audit enforcement.
---
Relevant Notes:
- [[CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring]]
Topics:
- [[domains/health/_map]]

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---
type: claim
domain: health
description: "Medicare Advantage plans systematically inflate risk scores through three complementary methods that capture codes FFS Medicare would never document"
confidence: proven
source: "Commonwealth Fund, How Risk Adjustment Affects Payment for Medicare Advantage Plans (2026)"
created: 2026-03-11
---
# MA risk adjustment gaming operates through three systematic mechanisms: upcoding, chart reviews, and in-home assessments
Medicare Advantage plans systematically inflate risk scores through three complementary mechanisms, each designed to capture diagnosis codes that Fee-For-Service Medicare would not document:
**1. Upcoding:** Submitting more diagnoses or higher-severity diagnoses than clinical documentation supports. This includes coding chronic conditions annually even without active treatment, and coding suspected or rule-out diagnoses as confirmed conditions.
**2. Chart reviews:** Retrospective review of medical records specifically to find additional codeable diagnoses not documented during the original clinical encounter. These reviews are conducted by coding specialists, not treating clinicians, and exist solely to extract additional HCC codes from historical records.
**3. In-home health assessments:** Visits specifically designed to capture diagnosis codes rather than provide medical treatment. These assessments are conducted by non-treating clinicians who perform comprehensive reviews to document every possible chronic condition, generating diagnosis codes that would never appear in routine FFS care.
These three mechanisms work together to create a systematic risk score inflation that drives MA payment above FFS levels. The 70% unsupported diagnosis rate from RADV audits suggests these practices are industry-wide, not isolated to specific plans.
## Evidence
**Three systematic mechanisms:**
*Upcoding:*
- Submitting more/higher-severity diagnoses than FFS Medicare would capture
- Coding chronic conditions annually regardless of active treatment
- Coding suspected diagnoses as confirmed
*Chart reviews:*
- Retrospective review of medical records to find additional codeable diagnoses not documented during encounters
- Conducted by coding specialists, not treating clinicians
- Exist solely to extract HCC codes from historical documentation
*In-home health assessments:*
- Visits specifically designed to capture diagnosis codes, not treat patients
- Conducted by non-treating clinicians performing comprehensive condition reviews
- Generate codes that would never appear in routine FFS care
**Scale evidence:**
- RADV audits find 70% of diagnosis codes unsupported by medical records
- Nearly every major MA plan has faced or settled upcoding allegations
- CMS chart review exclusion projects >$7B annual savings from eliminating just one mechanism
---
Relevant Notes:
- [[CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring]]
Topics:
- [[domains/health/_map]]

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@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
---
type: claim
domain: health
description: "Complementary reforms target what diagnoses can be coded and how they can be captured, restructuring MA economics"
confidence: likely
source: "Commonwealth Fund, How Risk Adjustment Affects Payment for Medicare Advantage Plans (2026)"
created: 2026-03-11
---
# V28 plus chart review exclusion creates dual reform eliminating both coding breadth and retrospective code-mining in MA payments
The combination of V28 implementation (2024-2026) and the proposed 2027 chart review exclusion represents a coordinated two-front attack on MA risk adjustment gaming. These reforms are complementary, not redundant:
**V28 targets coding breadth** (what can be coded):
- Reduces diagnosis codes that map to HCCs
- Increases number of HCC categories (more specificity required)
- Projected $7.6 billion savings in 2024 alone
- Fully implemented by 2026
**Chart review exclusion targets coding method** (how it gets coded):
- Excludes all diagnoses from unlinked chart review records
- Allows chart review diagnoses ONLY if tied to documented medical encounter
- Projected >$7 billion savings in 2027
- Eliminates retrospective code-mining as viable practice
Together, these reforms eliminate the two primary mechanisms through which MA plans systematically inflate risk scores above Fee-for-Service Medicare equivalents. The industry warns of benefit cuts and market exits if combined with flat benchmark rates, suggesting these reforms fundamentally alter MA unit economics.
## Evidence
**V28 mechanics:**
- Significantly decreased diagnosis codes mapping to HCCs
- Increased number of HCC categories
- Phase-in: 2024-2026, complete by 2026
- CMS estimated $7.6B savings in 2024
**Chart review exclusion mechanics:**
- CMS proposes excluding all diagnoses from unlinked chart review records
- Diagnoses from chart reviews allowed ONLY if tied to actual medical encounter
- Projected savings: >$7 billion in 2027
- Targets retrospective code-mining specifically
**Combined impact:**
- V28 narrows what diagnoses generate payment
- Chart review exclusion eliminates the primary method for capturing marginal diagnoses
- Together: most significant structural reform to MA risk adjustment since program inception
- Industry response: warnings of benefit cuts and market exits
## Why Dual Reform Matters
A plan could theoretically adapt to V28 by intensifying chart review to capture the remaining mappable codes. Chart review exclusion closes that adaptation pathway. Similarly, chart review exclusion alone could be circumvented by coding more aggressively during encounters. V28 limits that option. The reforms are structurally complementary because they eliminate different escape routes simultaneously.
---
Relevant Notes:
- [[CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring]]
- [[value-based care transitions stall at the payment boundary because 60 percent of payments touch value metrics but only 14 percent bear full risk]]
Topics:
- [[domains/health/_map]]

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@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ priority: high
tags: [risk-adjustment, cms-hcc, upcoding, medicare-advantage, V28, chart-review]
processed_by: vida
processed_date: 2026-03-11
claims_extracted: ["cms-hcc-v28-model-reduces-diagnosis-to-hcc-mappings-saving-7-6-billion-annually-by-narrowing-codeable-conditions.md", "cms-chart-review-exclusion-saves-7-billion-annually-by-eliminating-retrospective-code-mining-unlinked-to-medical-encounters.md", "cms-radv-audits-find-70-percent-of-ma-diagnosis-codes-unsupported-by-medical-records-revealing-systematic-upcoding-at-scale.md", "ma-risk-adjustment-gaming-operates-through-three-systematic-mechanisms-upcoding-chart-reviews-and-in-home-assessments.md"]
claims_extracted: ["cms-hcc-v28-model-reduces-diagnosis-code-mappings-eliminating-7-6-billion-in-annual-ma-overpayments.md", "chart-review-upcoding-generates-70-percent-unsupported-diagnosis-rate-in-cms-radv-audits.md", "v28-plus-chart-review-exclusion-creates-dual-reform-eliminating-coding-breadth-and-retrospective-code-mining-in-ma-payments.md"]
enrichments_applied: ["CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring.md"]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
extraction_notes: "Extracted four new claims about MA risk adjustment mechanics and one enrichment to existing KB claim. The source provides the mechanical foundation for understanding how V28 and chart review exclusion work as complementary reforms. Key insight: V28 targets coding breadth (what gets coded), chart review exclusion targets coding method (how it gets coded). The 70% unsupported diagnosis rate from RADV audits is the most striking data point—suggests systematic rather than incidental gaming. All claims rated likely or proven based on CMS official projections and OIG audit data."
extraction_notes: "Extracted three new claims about V28 risk adjustment mechanics, RADV audit findings, and the complementary nature of V28 + chart review exclusion reforms. Enriched existing chart review exclusion claim with mechanical detail and quantified savings projections. The 70% unsupported diagnosis rate from RADV audits is the most striking finding—it suggests MA risk adjustment is fundamentally built on codes that fail verification. The distinction between V28 (what gets coded) and chart review exclusion (how it gets coded) is structurally important for understanding why both reforms are necessary."
---
## Content
@ -77,7 +77,8 @@ EXTRACTION HINT: The distinction between V28 (what gets coded) and chart review
## Key Facts
- CMS-HCC risk adjustment: CMS pays MA plans monthly per-member capitation adjusted by risk scores derived from diagnosis codes (HCCs)
- Each HCC has a coefficient that increases payment for sicker patients
- Plans submit diagnosis codes annually; CMS calculates risk scores
- V24 to V28 transition: 2024-2026 gradual phase-in, complete by 2026
- V28 significantly decreased diagnosis codes mapping to HCCs, increased number of HCCs
- CMS 2027 proposal: exclude all diagnoses from unlinked chart review records from risk adjustment
- V24 to V28 transition: V24 had broader diagnosis-to-HCC mappings; V28 significantly decreased mappable codes while increasing HCC categories
- V28 phase-in: 2024-2026 gradual transition, complete implementation by 2026
- Chart review: retrospective review of medical records to find additional codeable diagnoses not documented during encounters
- In-home health assessments: visits specifically designed to capture diagnosis codes, not treat patients
- RADV audits: Risk Adjustment Data Validation audits conducted by CMS to verify diagnosis code submissions