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@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ Ruiz-Serra et al. (2024) provide formal evidence for the coordination framing th
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The UK AI4CI research strategy treats alignment as a coordination and governance challenge requiring institutional infrastructure. The seven trust properties (human agency, security, privacy, transparency, fairness, value alignment, accountability) are framed as system architecture requirements, not as technical ML problems. The strategy emphasizes 'establishing and managing appropriate infrastructure in a way that is secure, well-governed and sustainable' and includes regulatory sandboxes, trans-national governance, and trustworthiness assessment as core components. The research agenda focuses on coordination mechanisms (federated learning, FAIR principles, multi-stakeholder governance) rather than on technical alignment methods like RLHF or interpretability.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2026-01-15-eu-ai-alliance-seven-feedback-loops]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
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The source identifies three market failure mechanisms driving over-adoption: (1) negative externalities where firms don't internalize demand destruction, (2) coordination failure where 'follow or die' dynamics force adoption despite systemic risks, (3) information asymmetry where adoption signals inevitability. All three are coordination failures, not technical capability gaps.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -41,6 +41,16 @@ The Claynosaurz-Mediawan co-production will launch on YouTube first, then sell t
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Pudgy Penguins chose to launch Lil Pudgys on its own YouTube channel (13K subscribers) rather than leveraging TheSoul Publishing's 2B+ follower distribution network. This extends the claim by showing that YouTube-first distribution can mean building a DEDICATED brand channel rather than parasitizing existing platform reach. The decision prioritizes brand ownership over reach maximization, suggesting YouTube-first is not just about platform primacy but about audience ownership architecture.
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### Auto-enrichment (near-duplicate conversion, similarity=1.00)
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*Source: PR #1238 — "youtube first distribution for major studio coproductions signals platform primacy over traditional broadcast windowing"*
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*Auto-converted by substantive fixer. Review: revert if this evidence doesn't belong here.*
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-10-01-variety-claynosaurz-creator-led-transmedia]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
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Claynosaurz 39-episode animated series launching YouTube-first before selling to TV/streaming, co-produced with Method Animation (Mediawan). Nic Cabana frames this as 'already here' not speculative, with community's 1B social views creating guaranteed algorithmic traction that studios pay millions to achieve through marketing.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -76,6 +76,12 @@ The securities law question may be superseded by state gaming law enforcement. E
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Arizona's criminal charges against Kalshi demonstrate that being 'not a security' does not protect prediction market operators from criminal gambling prosecution. The structural separation that defeats Howey test classification is irrelevant to state gaming laws and election betting prohibitions. Criminal charges create personal liability for executives that persists regardless of securities law analysis.
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### Additional Evidence (challenge)
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*Source: [[2026-03-12-cftc-advisory-anprm-prediction-markets]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
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The CFTC's March 2026 ANPRM creates a parallel regulatory vector through the Commodity Exchange Act that could affect futarchy governance markets independently of securities law. If 'gaming' under CEA section 5c(c)(5)(C) is defined broadly, futarchy markets could face prohibition or restriction not because they're securities, but because they're classified as gaming contracts. This means proving futarchy entities aren't securities under Howey may be necessary but not sufficient for regulatory defensibility—they must also avoid the 'gaming' classification under the CEA.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -27,6 +27,12 @@ The investment implication is that ISRU businesses should be evaluated not again
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Helium-3 extraction avoids the launch cost competition problem that threatens water-for-propellant economics because helium-3's terrestrial scarcity and quantum computing demand create a market where lunar extraction competes against constrained Earth supply rather than against launch services. This suggests resources with high Earth-side value and limited terrestrial supply may be more economically viable than resources primarily valuable for in-space use.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2026-03-18-spacenews-lunar-economy-resources-reactors]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
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The helium-3 quantum computing demand creates a case where lunar resources have Earth-side markets that launch cost reductions cannot compete with, because the resource literally doesn't exist on Earth in sufficient quantities. This represents a boundary condition where the paradox doesn't apply: when the resource is unavailable terrestrially, launch costs only affect the extraction economics, not the market viability.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -18,6 +18,12 @@ The UNCOPUOS Working Group on Space Resource Activities produced draft Recommend
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This pattern — national legislation creating de facto international norms through accumulation of consistent domestic practice — is a governance design insight with implications beyond space. It demonstrates that when multilateral treaty-making stalls, coordinated unilateral action by like-minded states can establish operative legal frameworks. This parallels the Artemis Accords approach: [[the Artemis Accords replace multilateral treaty-making with bilateral norm-setting to create governance through coalition practice rather than universal consensus]]. Both represent governance emergence through practice rather than negotiation.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2026-03-18-spacenews-lunar-economy-resources-reactors]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
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SpaceNews reports that India has now adopted 'first to explore, first to own' principle alongside US, Luxembourg, UAE, and Japan. The article notes Congress enacted laws establishing this principle and it has been 'adopted by India, Luxembourg, UAE, Japan' creating 'de facto international law through national legislation without international agreement.' This extends the coalition beyond the original Artemis Accords signatories and shows the framework spreading to major emerging space powers.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -26,6 +26,8 @@ Community-driven animated IP founded by former VFX artists from Sony Pictures, A
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- **2025-10-01** — Nic Cabana presented at VIEW Conference on creator-led transmedia strategy. Announced 39 x 7-minute animated series co-produced with Method Animation (Mediawan), launching YouTube-first before traditional distribution. Community has generated nearly 1B social views. Gameloft mobile game in co-development. Shared achievement system planned across gaming, social media, collectibles, and community.
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- **2025-10-01** — Nic Cabana presented Claynosaurz transmedia strategy at VIEW Conference. Announced 39 x 7-minute animated series launching YouTube-first with Method Animation (Mediawan) co-production. Community has generated nearly 1B social views. Gameloft mobile game in co-development. Strategy uses shared achievement system integrating gaming, social media, collectibles, and community.
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- **2025-11-01** — Presented at MIPJunior 2025 (Cannes) detailing informal co-creation governance model with 450M+ views, 530K+ subscribers, 39-episode series in production with Mediawan Kids & Family, Gameloft mobile game in co-development
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- **2025-10-01** — Announced 39 x 7-minute animated series co-produced with Method Animation (Mediawan), launching YouTube-first before traditional distribution. Community has generated nearly 1B social views. Gameloft mobile game in co-development. Nic Cabana presented creator-led transmedia strategy at VIEW Conference.
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- **2025-11-01** — Presented informal co-creation governance model at MIPJunior 2025 in Cannes, detailing seven specific community engagement mechanisms including weekly IP bible updates and social media as test kitchen for creative decisions
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## Relationship to KB
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- Implements [[fanchise management is a stack of increasing fan engagement from content extensions through co-creation and co-ownership]] through specific co-creation mechanisms
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@ -50,6 +50,7 @@ CFTC-designated contract market for event-based trading. USD-denominated, KYC-re
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- **2025-08-01** — Maryland District Court ruled against Kalshi in KalshiEx v. Martin, finding dual compliance with state gambling laws theoretically possible and rejecting field preemption argument (Fourth Circuit appeal No. 25-1892 pending)
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- **2026-01-09** — Tennessee Middle District Court ruled in favor of Kalshi in KalshiEx v. Orgel, finding impossibility of dual compliance and obstacle to federal objectives, creating circuit split with Maryland
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- **2026-03-17** — Arizona AG filed 20 criminal counts including illegal gambling and election wagering — first-ever criminal charges against a US prediction market platform
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- **2026-01-09** — Tennessee court ruled in favor of Kalshi in KalshiEx v. Orgel, finding impossibility of dual compliance and obstacle to federal objectives, creating circuit split with Maryland
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## Competitive Position
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- **Regulation-first**: Only CFTC-designated prediction market exchange. Institutional credibility.
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- **vs Polymarket**: Different market — Kalshi targets mainstream/institutional users who won't touch crypto. Polymarket targets crypto-native users who want permissionless market creation. Both grew massively post-2024 election.
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@ -73,6 +73,9 @@ The futarchy governance protocol on Solana. Implements decision markets through
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- **2026-02-07** — [[metadao-hurupay-ico-failure]] Failed: First ICO failure, Hurupay did not reach $3M minimum despite $7.2M monthly volume
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- **2026-03-18** — [[metadao-ban-hawkins-proposals]] Failed: Community rejected Ban Hawkins' governance proposals through futarchy markets
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- **2026-03-18** — [[metadao-first-launchpad-proposal]] Failed: Initial launchpad proposal rejected through futarchy markets
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- **2026-02-07** — [[metadao-hurupay-ico]] Failed: First MetaDAO ICO failure - Hurupay failed to reach $3M minimum, full refunds issued
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- **2026-03** — [[metadao-vc-discount-rejection]] Passed: Community rejected $6M OTC deal offering 30% VC discount via futarchy vote, triggering 16% META price surge
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- **2026-03-17** — Revenue decline continues since mid-December 2025; platform generated ~$2.4M total revenue since Futarchy AMM launch (60% AMM, 40% Meteora LP)
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## Key Decisions
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| Date | Proposal | Proposer | Category | Outcome |
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|------|----------|----------|----------|---------|
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@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "competitive-ai-adoption-creates-demand-destruction-feedback-loop-through-follow-or-die-dynamics.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "exponential-technology-with-linear-governance-creates-meta-loop-accelerating-all-other-feedback-loops.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "ai-productivity-gains-translate-to-worker-earnings-at-only-3-to-7-percent-creating-structural-demand-gap.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 3,
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"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 6,
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"rejected": 3,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"competitive-ai-adoption-creates-demand-destruction-feedback-loop-through-follow-or-die-dynamics.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"competitive-ai-adoption-creates-demand-destruction-feedback-loop-through-follow-or-die-dynamics.md:stripped_wiki_link:the alignment tax creates a structural race to the bottom",
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"competitive-ai-adoption-creates-demand-destruction-feedback-loop-through-follow-or-die-dynamics.md:stripped_wiki_link:economic forces push humans out of every cognitive loop wher",
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"exponential-technology-with-linear-governance-creates-meta-loop-accelerating-all-other-feedback-loops.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"ai-productivity-gains-translate-to-worker-earnings-at-only-3-to-7-percent-creating-structural-demand-gap.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"ai-productivity-gains-translate-to-worker-earnings-at-only-3-to-7-percent-creating-structural-demand-gap.md:stripped_wiki_link:economic forces push humans out of every cognitive loop wher"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"competitive-ai-adoption-creates-demand-destruction-feedback-loop-through-follow-or-die-dynamics.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"exponential-technology-with-linear-governance-creates-meta-loop-accelerating-all-other-feedback-loops.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"ai-productivity-gains-translate-to-worker-earnings-at-only-3-to-7-percent-creating-structural-demand-gap.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "cftc-gaming-definition-ambiguity-creates-classification-risk-for-governance-markets.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "cftc-flags-single-actor-decision-contracts-for-manipulation-risk-affecting-futarchy-governance.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 2,
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"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 3,
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"rejected": 2,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"cftc-gaming-definition-ambiguity-creates-classification-risk-for-governance-markets.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"cftc-gaming-definition-ambiguity-creates-classification-risk-for-governance-markets.md:stripped_wiki_link:Polymarket achieved us regulatory legitimacy through qcx acq",
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"cftc-flags-single-actor-decision-contracts-for-manipulation-risk-affecting-futarchy-governance.md:set_created:2026-03-18"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"cftc-gaming-definition-ambiguity-creates-classification-risk-for-governance-markets.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"cftc-flags-single-actor-decision-contracts-for-manipulation-risk-affecting-futarchy-governance.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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||||
"filename": "helium-3-quantum-computing-demand-creates-lunar-extraction-incentive.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
|
||||
},
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||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "terrestrial-industrial-companies-entering-lunar-mining-signals-engineering-phase-transition.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
|
||||
}
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||||
],
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"validation_stats": {
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||||
"total": 2,
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||||
"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 3,
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||||
"rejected": 2,
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||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"helium-3-quantum-computing-demand-creates-lunar-extraction-incentive.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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||||
"helium-3-quantum-computing-demand-creates-lunar-extraction-incentive.md:stripped_wiki_link:the 30 year space economy attractor state is a cislunar indu",
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"terrestrial-industrial-companies-entering-lunar-mining-signals-engineering-phase-transition.md:set_created:2026-03-18"
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||||
],
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"rejections": [
|
||||
"helium-3-quantum-computing-demand-creates-lunar-extraction-incentive.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"terrestrial-industrial-companies-entering-lunar-mining-signals-engineering-phase-transition.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -7,12 +7,16 @@ date: 2026-01-15
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domain: ai-alignment
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secondary_domains: [internet-finance, grand-strategy]
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format: essay
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status: unprocessed
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status: enrichment
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priority: high
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triage_tag: claim
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tags: [feedback-loops, economic-disruption, demand-destruction, automation-overshoot, coordination-failure, market-failure, systemic-risk]
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flagged_for_rio: ["Seven self-reinforcing economic feedback loops from AI automation — connects to market failure analysis and coordination mechanisms"]
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flagged_for_leo: ["Systemic coordination failure framework — individual firm optimization creating collective demand destruction"]
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processed_by: theseus
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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enrichments_applied: ["AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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---
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## Content
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@ -55,3 +59,12 @@ Seven self-reinforcing feedback loops identified in AI's economic impact:
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: the alignment tax creates a structural race to the bottom because safety training costs capability and rational competitors skip it
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WHY ARCHIVED: Provides seven specific feedback loops explaining HOW the race-to-the-bottom dynamic operates economically. L1 is the alignment tax applied to automation decisions. L7 is our temporal mismatch claim applied to governance response.
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## Key Facts
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- 78% of organizations now use AI as of 2026
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- 40% of employers plan workforce reductions due to AI
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- 92% of C-suite executives report up to 20% workforce overcapacity
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- Only 3-7% of AI productivity improvements translate to higher worker earnings
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- 77% of new AI jobs require master's degrees
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- J-curve pattern shows initial 60-percentage-point productivity declines during 12-24 month AI adjustment periods
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@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date: 2026-03-12
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domain: internet-finance
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secondary_domains: []
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format: report
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status: unprocessed
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status: enrichment
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priority: high
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triage_tag: claim
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tags: [CFTC, prediction-markets, regulation, event-contracts, ANPRM, advisory, gaming, sports, futarchy]
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processed_by: rio
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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enrichments_applied: ["futarchy-governed entities are structurally not securities because prediction market participation replaces the concentrated promoter effort that the Howey test requires.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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---
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## Content
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@ -81,3 +85,15 @@ On March 12, 2026, the CFTC issued two documents:
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[futarchy-governed entities are structurally not securities because prediction market participation replaces the concentrated promoter effort that the Howey test requires]]
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WHY ARCHIVED: First concrete CFTC regulatory framework for prediction markets — the gaming definition and single-actor manipulation concern are the two vectors that could reach futarchy
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## Key Facts
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- Event contract listings surged from ~5/year (2006-2020) to ~1,600 in 2025
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- CFTC Advisory Letter 26-08 requires DCMs to conduct communications with sports governing bodies when developing sports-related event contracts
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- CFTC Advisory Letter 26-08 requires DCMs to establish data-sharing arrangements with sports organizations and use official league data for settlement
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- CFTC Chairman Selig withdrew 2024 proposed rule that would have prohibited political and sports event contracts
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- CFTC Chairman Selig withdrew 2025 staff advisory cautioning about state litigation risks
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- CFTC Division of Enforcement has commenced insider trading prosecutions for event contracts that could be influenced by a single individual
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- Previous 2024 CFTC gaming definition: 'staking or risking something of value on the outcome of a political contest, an awards contest, or a game in which one or more athletes compete'
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- ANPRM covers economic indicators, financial benchmarks, sports, popular culture and politics but does not mention governance markets, decision markets, or futarchy
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- Senate Democrats pushing limits including bans on bets tied to war and death
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@ -7,12 +7,16 @@ date: 2025-10-15
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domain: space-development
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secondary_domains: [internet-finance, ai-alignment]
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format: essay
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||||
status: unprocessed
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||||
status: enrichment
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||||
priority: high
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||||
triage_tag: claim
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flagged_for_leo: ["450 lunar missions planned by 2033, half commercial, $151B revenue — governance implications for coordination bottleneck"]
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flagged_for_rio: ["Lunar resource rights legislation in US, Luxembourg, UAE, Japan, India — 'first to explore, first to own' creates capital formation framework"]
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tags: [lunar-economy, ISRU, helium-3, governance, resource-rights, nuclear-power, commercial-space]
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processed_by: astra
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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enrichments_applied: ["space resource rights are emerging through national legislation creating de facto international law without international agreement.md", "falling launch costs paradoxically both enable and threaten in-space resource utilization by making infrastructure affordable while competing with the end product.md"]
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||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
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||||
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||||
## Content
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||||
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@ -57,3 +61,14 @@ SpaceNews analysis of the commercial lunar economy landscape:
|
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: space resource rights are emerging through national legislation creating de facto international law without international agreement
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Comprehensive lunar economy overview showing governance advancing through national legislation (countering pure governance-gap narrative) and helium-3 demand creating commercial pull
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||||
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## Key Facts
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||||
- 450 lunar missions planned by 2033, half commercial
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- $151 billion projected revenue for lunar economy
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- ESA Moonlight communications network under development
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- Thales Alenia Space has human lunar outpost contract with Italy's space agency
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- Astrobotic LunaGrid power service elements planned for 2026
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- Interlune has helium-3 contract with Bluefors valued at approximately $300M annually
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- India, Luxembourg, UAE, Japan have adopted 'first to explore, first to own' resource rights principle
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- Vermeer, Komatsu, and General Motors are participating in lunar mining/construction alongside space-native companies
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Reference in a new issue