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domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md

@@ -31,13 +31,13 @@ This was a play-money experiment, which is the primary confound. Real-money futa
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (extend)
-*Source: [[2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+*Source: 2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
 
 ORE's HNT-ORE boost proposal demonstrates futarchy's strength in relative selection: the market validated HNT as the next liquidity pair to boost relative to other candidates (ISC already had a boost at equivalent multiplier), but the proposal does not require absolute prediction of HNT's future price or utility—only that HNT is a better strategic choice than alternatives. The proposal passed by market consensus on relative positioning (HNT as flagship DePIN project post-HIP-138), not by predicting absolute HNT performance metrics.
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (confirm)
-*Source: [[2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+*Source: 2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore | Added: 2026-03-16*
 
 ORE's three-tier boost multiplier system (vanilla stake, critical pairs, extended pairs) demonstrates futarchy's strength at relative ranking. The proposal doesn't require markets to predict absolute HNT-ORE liquidity outcomes, only to rank this boost against alternatives. Future proposals apply to tiers as wholes, further simplifying the ordinal comparison task.
 
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ ORE's three-tier boost multiplier system (vanilla stake, critical pairs, extende
 ### Additional Evidence (extend)
 *Source: [[2026-03-05-futardio-launch-blockrock]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
 
-BlockRock explicitly argues futarchy works better for liquid asset allocation than illiquid VC: 'Futarchy governance works by letting markets price competing outcomes, but private VC deals are difficult to price with asymmetric information, long timelines, and binary outcomes. Liquid asset allocation for risk-adjusted returns gives futarchy the pricing efficiency it requires.' This identifies information asymmetry and timeline as the boundary conditions where futarchy pricing breaks down.
+BlockRock charter argues that 'Liquid asset allocation for risk-adjusted returns gives futarchy the pricing efficiency it requires' while 'private VC deals are difficult to price with asymmetric information, long timelines, and binary outcomes.' This suggests futarchy's effectiveness depends on the continuous pricing feedback available in liquid markets, not just the relative vs. absolute distinction. MtnCapital's struggle to pass proposals is attributed to illiquid VC bet pricing difficulty.
 
 ---
 

entities/entertainment/dropout.md

@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ Creator-owned streaming platform focused on comedy content. Reached 1M+ subscrib
 - **2025-10-XX** — Reached 1M+ subscribers milestone
 
 - **2026-03-01** — CVL Economics analysis reveals 1M+ subscribers generating $80-90M revenue with 40-45% EBITDA margins and 40 full-time employees, achieving $3.0-3.3M revenue per employee. Platform maintains stable pricing for 3+ years, grandfathers legacy subscriber rates, encourages password sharing, and distributes profits to all contributors including unsuccessful auditionees. Estimated to have reached 50-67% penetration of total addressable market.
+- **2026-03-01** — CVL Economics analysis reveals Dropout operates at 40-45% EBITDA margins on $80-90M annual revenue with 40 employees, producing $3.0-3.3M revenue per employee. May have reached 50-67% penetration of total addressable market globally with 1M+ subscribers.
 ## Relationship to KB
 
 - [[creator-owned-streaming-infrastructure-has-reached-commercial-scale-with-430M-annual-creator-revenue-across-13M-subscribers]]

inbox/archive/2026-03-05-futardio-launch-blockrock.md

@@ -200,10 +200,8 @@ BlockRock is designed to scale to trillions in assets under management. The toke
 
 
 ## Key Facts
-- BlockRock targeted $500,000 fundraise on futard.io
-- BlockRock raised only $100 before entering refunding status
-- BlockRock launch lasted one day (2026-03-05 to 2026-03-06)
-- BlackRock earns ~73% of revenue from management fees and only ~5% from performance fees
-- BlackRock has 20,000+ employees, 70+ global offices, and 1,700+ ETFs
-- Asset management industry is $120T+
-- BlockRock cited MtnCapital as precedent for futarchy-governed investment fund that wound down safely
+- BlockRock fundraise targeted $500,000 but raised only $100 before entering refunding status
+- BlockRock proposed 95% token distribution to ICO participants, 5% to team with performance-based vesting
+- BlockRock charter cited BlackRock's 73% revenue from management fees vs 5% from performance fees
+- BlockRock charter referenced the $120T+ asset management industry
+- MtnCapital was an earlier ownership fund on MetaDAO that wound down after struggling to pass proposals