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4 changed files with 64 additions and 1 deletions
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@ -49,6 +49,7 @@ CFTC-designated contract market for event-based trading. USD-denominated, KYC-re
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- **2025-04 to 2026-02** — Kalshi engaged in 50+ legal battles across 8+ jurisdictions over whether sports event contracts are federally preempted derivatives or state-regulated gaming, with conflicting district court rulings creating conditions for Supreme Court review
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- **2025-08-01** — Maryland District Court ruled against Kalshi in KalshiEx v. Martin, finding dual compliance with state gambling laws theoretically possible and rejecting field preemption argument (Fourth Circuit appeal No. 25-1892 pending)
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- **2026-01-09** — Tennessee Middle District Court ruled in favor of Kalshi in KalshiEx v. Orgel, finding impossibility of dual compliance and obstacle to federal objectives, creating circuit split with Maryland
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- **2026-03-17** — Arizona AG filed 20 criminal counts including illegal gambling and election wagering — first-ever criminal charges against a US prediction market platform
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## Competitive Position
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- **Regulation-first**: Only CFTC-designated prediction market exchange. Institutional credibility.
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- **vs Polymarket**: Different market — Kalshi targets mainstream/institutional users who won't touch crypto. Polymarket targets crypto-native users who want permissionless market creation. Both grew massively post-2024 election.
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@ -67,6 +67,10 @@ The futarchy governance protocol on Solana. Implements decision markets through
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- **2024-08-31** — Passed proposal to enter services agreement with Organization Technology LLC, creating US entity vehicle for paying contributors with $1.378M annualized burn rate. Entity owns no IP (all owned by MetaDAO LLC) and cannot encumber MetaDAO LLC. Agreement cancellable with 30-day notice or immediately for material breach.
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- **2024-03-19** — Colosseum proposes $250,000 OTC acquisition of META with TWAP-based pricing (market price up to $850, voided above $1,200), 20% immediate unlock and 80% 12-month linear vest. Proposal passed 2024-03-24. Includes commitment to sponsor DAO track ($50-80K prize pool) in next Solana hackathon after Renaissance at no cost to MetaDAO.
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- **2024-03-19** — Colosseum proposed $250,000 OTC acquisition of META tokens with dynamic pricing (TWAP-based up to $850, void above $1,200) and 12-month vesting structure; proposal passed 2024-03-24
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- **2026-02-07** — [[metadao-hurupay-ico-failure]] First ICO failure: Hurupay failed to reach $3M minimum, full refunds issued
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- **2026-02** — Community rejected via futarchy a $6M OTC deal offering VCs 30% discount on META tokens; rejection triggered 16% price surge
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- **2026-03-26** — P2P.me ICO scheduled, targeting $6M raise
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- **2026-02-07** — [[metadao-hurupay-ico-failure]] Failed: First ICO failure, Hurupay did not reach $3M minimum despite $7.2M monthly volume
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## Key Decisions
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| Date | Proposal | Proposer | Category | Outcome |
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|------|----------|----------|----------|---------|
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@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "ai-degrades-human-performance-asymmetrically-in-high-stakes-settings.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "ai-changes-human-cognitive-processes-not-just-decisions.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "joint-activity-testing-evaluates-human-ai-systems-holistically.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 3,
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"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 10,
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"rejected": 3,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"ai-degrades-human-performance-asymmetrically-in-high-stakes-settings.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"ai-degrades-human-performance-asymmetrically-in-high-stakes-settings.md:stripped_wiki_link:human-in-the-loop clinical AI degrades to worse-than-AI-alon",
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"ai-degrades-human-performance-asymmetrically-in-high-stakes-settings.md:stripped_wiki_link:AI capability and reliability are independent dimensions",
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"ai-degrades-human-performance-asymmetrically-in-high-stakes-settings.md:stripped_wiki_link:economic forces push humans out of every cognitive loop wher",
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"ai-changes-human-cognitive-processes-not-just-decisions.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"ai-changes-human-cognitive-processes-not-just-decisions.md:stripped_wiki_link:human-in-the-loop clinical AI degrades to worse-than-AI-alon",
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"ai-changes-human-cognitive-processes-not-just-decisions.md:stripped_wiki_link:delegating critical infrastructure development to AI creates",
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"joint-activity-testing-evaluates-human-ai-systems-holistically.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"joint-activity-testing-evaluates-human-ai-systems-holistically.md:stripped_wiki_link:pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk",
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"joint-activity-testing-evaluates-human-ai-systems-holistically.md:stripped_wiki_link:multi-agent deployment exposes emergent security vulnerabili"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"ai-degrades-human-performance-asymmetrically-in-high-stakes-settings.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"ai-changes-human-cognitive-processes-not-just-decisions.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"joint-activity-testing-evaluates-human-ai-systems-holistically.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -7,11 +7,15 @@ date: 2026-03-01
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domain: ai-alignment
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secondary_domains: [health]
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format: essay
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status: unprocessed
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status: null-result
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priority: high
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triage_tag: claim
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tags: [human-ai-performance, high-stakes, degradation, nursing, aviation, nuclear, joint-activity-testing]
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flagged_for_vida: ["450 nursing students/nurses tested with AI in ICU cases — performance degrades 96-120% when AI predictions mislead"]
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processed_by: theseus
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "LLM returned 3 claims, 3 rejected by validator"
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---
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## Content
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@ -63,3 +67,10 @@ Cross-domain analysis of how AI degrades human performance in critical settings:
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: human-in-the-loop clinical AI degrades to worse-than-AI-alone because physicians both de-skill from reliance and introduce errors when overriding correct outputs
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WHY ARCHIVED: Extends our existing clinical AI degradation claim with cross-domain evidence (nursing, aviation, nuclear) and quantifies the asymmetric risk profile. The cognitive restructuring mechanism is a novel finding.
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## Key Facts
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- 450 nursing students and licensed nurses participated in ICU case review study with four AI configurations
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- AI weather monitoring in aviation missed microbursts during landing, doubling crew workload and halving preparation time
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- Nuclear energy AI warning systems misclassified gradual coolant pressure drops as benign, leading to cascading subsystem failures
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- Study tested four AI configurations: no assistance, predictions only, predictions plus annotations, and full AI support
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