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@ -19,12 +19,6 @@ Since [[democratic alignment assemblies produce constitutions as effective as ex
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Since [[collective intelligence requires diversity as a structural precondition not a moral preference]], community-centred norm elicitation is a concrete mechanism for ensuring the structural diversity that collective alignment requires. Without it, alignment defaults to the values of whichever demographic builds the systems.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-11-00-operationalizing-pluralistic-values-llm-alignment]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Empirical study with 27,375 ratings from 1,095 participants shows that demographic composition of training data produces 3-5 percentage point differences in model behavior across emotional awareness and toxicity dimensions. This quantifies the magnitude of difference between community-sourced and developer-specified alignment targets.
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -27,12 +27,6 @@ This claim directly addresses the mechanism gap identified in [[RLHF and DPO bot
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The paper's proposed solution—RLCHF with explicit social welfare functions—connects to [[collective intelligence requires diversity as a structural precondition not a moral preference]] by formalizing how diverse evaluator input should be preserved rather than collapsed.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-06-00-li-scaling-human-judgment-community-notes-llms]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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RLCF makes the social choice mechanism explicit through the bridging algorithm (matrix factorization with intercept scores). Unlike standard RLHF which aggregates preferences opaquely through reward model training, RLCF's use of intercepts as the training signal is a deliberate choice to optimize for cross-partisan agreement—a specific social welfare function.
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@ -27,12 +27,6 @@ Chakraborty, Qiu, Yuan, Koppel, Manocha, Huang, Bedi, Wang. "MaxMin-RLHF: Alignm
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- GPT-2 experiment: single RLHF achieved positive sentiment but ignored conciseness
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- Tulu2-7B experiment: minority group accuracy dropped from 70.4% to 42% at 10:1 ratio
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-11-00-operationalizing-pluralistic-values-llm-alignment]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Study demonstrates that models trained on different demographic populations show measurable behavioral divergence (3-5 percentage points), providing empirical evidence that single-reward functions trained on one population systematically misalign with others.
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@ -11,21 +11,15 @@ source: "Arrow's impossibility theorem; value pluralism (Isaiah Berlin); LivingI
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Not all disagreement is an information problem. Some disagreements persist because people genuinely weight values differently -- liberty against equality, individual against collective, present against future, growth against sustainability. These are not failures of reasoning or gaps in evidence. They are structural features of a world where multiple legitimate values cannot all be maximized simultaneously.
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Universal alignment is mathematically impossible because Arrows impossibility theorem applies to aggregating diverse human preferences into a single coherent objective. Arrow proved this formally: no aggregation mechanism can satisfy all fairness criteria simultaneously when preferences genuinely diverge. The implication is not that we should give up on coordination, but that any system claiming to have resolved all disagreement has either suppressed minority positions or defined away the hard cases.
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[[Universal alignment is mathematically impossible because Arrows impossibility theorem applies to aggregating diverse human preferences into a single coherent objective]]. Arrow proved this formally: no aggregation mechanism can satisfy all fairness criteria simultaneously when preferences genuinely diverge. The implication is not that we should give up on coordination, but that any system claiming to have resolved all disagreement has either suppressed minority positions or defined away the hard cases.
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This matters for knowledge systems because the temptation is always to converge. Consensus feels like progress. But premature consensus on value-laden questions is more dangerous than sustained tension. A system that forces agreement on whether AI development should prioritize capability or safety, or whether economic growth or ecological preservation takes precedence, has not solved the problem -- it has hidden it. And hidden disagreements surface at the worst possible moments.
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The correct response is to map the disagreement rather than eliminate it. Identify the common ground. Build steelman arguments for each position. Locate the precise crux -- is it empirical (resolvable with evidence) or evaluative (genuinely about different values)? Make the structure of the disagreement visible so that participants can engage with the strongest version of positions they oppose.
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Pluralistic alignment must accommodate irreducibly diverse values simultaneously rather than converging on a single aligned state -- this is the same principle applied to AI systems. [[RLHF and DPO both fail at preference diversity because they assume a single reward function can capture context-dependent human values]] -- collapsing diverse preferences into a single function is the technical version of premature consensus.
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[[Pluralistic alignment must accommodate irreducibly diverse values simultaneously rather than converging on a single aligned state]] -- this is the same principle applied to AI systems. [[RLHF and DPO both fail at preference diversity because they assume a single reward function can capture context-dependent human values]] -- collapsing diverse preferences into a single function is the technical version of premature consensus.
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Collective intelligence within a purpose-driven community faces a structural tension because shared worldview correlates errors while shared purpose enables coordination. Persistent irreducible disagreement is actually a safeguard here -- it prevents the correlated error problem by maintaining genuine diversity of perspective within a coordinated community. The independence-coherence tradeoff is managed not by eliminating disagreement but by channeling it productively.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-11-00-operationalizing-pluralistic-values-llm-alignment]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Systematic variation of demographic composition in alignment training produced persistent behavioral differences across Liberal/Conservative, White/Black, and Female/Male populations, suggesting these reflect genuine value differences rather than information asymmetries that could be resolved.
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[[Collective intelligence within a purpose-driven community faces a structural tension because shared worldview correlates errors while shared purpose enables coordination]]. Persistent irreducible disagreement is actually a safeguard here -- it prevents the correlated error problem by maintaining genuine diversity of perspective within a coordinated community. The independence-coherence tradeoff is managed not by eliminating disagreement but by channeling it productively.
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@ -25,12 +25,6 @@ Investors are explicitly pricing the integrated system (content → audience →
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- Feastables in 30,000+ retail locations with zero marginal cost customer acquisition vs traditional CPG 10-15% ad spend
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- Five verticals: software (Viewstats), CPG (Feastables, Lunchly), health/wellness, media, video games
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-03-10-bloomberg-mrbeast-feastables-more-money-than-youtube]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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2024 actual financials confirm the model: media lost $80M, Feastables generated $250M revenue with $20M+ profit. 2025-2029 projections show revenue growing from $899M to $4.78B, with media becoming only 1/5 of total sales by 2026. The $5B valuation is pricing a proven model, not a speculative one.
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@ -33,12 +33,6 @@ The production team explicitly frames this as "involving community at every stag
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No data yet on whether community involvement actually changes creative decisions versus cosmetic inclusion of collectibles. The source describes the mechanisms but not their impact on final content. Also unclear what percentage of community participates versus passive observation. Confidence is experimental because this is a single implementation example.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-06-01-variety-mediawan-claynosaurz-animated-series]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Claynosaurz describes community as 'co-conspirators who have a real impact on Claynosaurz's future' and states community input helps shape narrative and content direction. However, the source does not specify the mechanisms (storyboard sharing, script collaboration, etc.) — only that community influence exists. This extends the claim by adding another case but doesn't confirm the specific mechanisms.
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@ -29,12 +29,6 @@ This decision follows Claynosaurz's demonstrated 450M+ views, 200M+ impressions,
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This is one data point from one studio. The claim is experimental because it's based on a single co-production decision. Broader pattern confirmation would require multiple independent studios making similar choices. Also unclear whether YouTube-first is driven by community validation specifically or by other factors (budget, Mediawan's strategic positioning, YouTube's kids content strategy).
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-06-02-kidscreen-mediawan-claynosaurz-animated-series]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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The Claynosaurz-Mediawan co-production will launch on YouTube first, then sell to TV and streaming buyers. This inverts the traditional risk model: YouTube launch proves audience metrics before traditional buyers commit, using the community's existing social reach (~1B views) as a guaranteed launch audience. Mediawan brings professional production quality while the community provides distribution validation, creating a new risk-sharing structure where platform distribution precedes rather than follows traditional media deals.
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -23,12 +23,6 @@ Devoted was built from scratch on the Orinoco platform — a unified AI-native o
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Since [[proxy inertia is the most reliable predictor of incumbent failure because current profitability rationally discourages pursuit of viable futures]], UnitedHealth's $9 billion annual technology spend directed at optimizing existing infrastructure (consolidating 18 EMRs, AI scribing within legacy workflows) rather than rebuilding around prevention is textbook proxy inertia. The margin from coding arbitrage rationally prevents pursuit of the purpose-built alternative.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-kff-medicare-advantage-2025-enrollment-update]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Market concentration data shows UHG gained 505K members while Humana lost 297K in 2025, suggesting the oligopoly is consolidating further toward the largest player. This creates the competitive environment where purpose-built entrants like Devoted can differentiate through technology rather than scale.
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@ -29,12 +29,6 @@ Real-world persistence data from 125,474 commercially insured patients shows the
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The Cell Press review characterizes GLP-1s as marking a 'system-level redefinition' of cardiometabolic management with 'ripple effects across healthcare costs, insurance models, food systems, long-term population health.' Obesity costs the US $400B+ annually, providing context for the scale of potential cost impact. The WHO issued conditional recommendations within 2 years of widespread adoption (December 2025), unusually fast for a major therapeutic category.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-03-01-medicare-prior-authorization-glp1-near-universal]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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MA plans' near-universal prior authorization creates administrative friction that may worsen the already-poor adherence rates for GLP-1s. PA requirements ensure only T2D-diagnosed patients can access, effectively blocking obesity-only coverage despite FDA approval. This access restriction compounds the chronic-use economics challenge by adding administrative barriers on top of existing adherence problems.
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@ -27,12 +27,6 @@ The facility closures in 43 states indicate the crisis has moved beyond "shortag
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None identified. This is a descriptive claim about measured workforce conditions across all 50 states.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-aarp-caregiving-crisis-63-million]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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AARP 2025 data confirms: 92% of nursing homes report significant/severe shortages, ~70% of assisted living facilities report similar shortages, all 50 states face home care worker shortages, and 43 states have seen HCBS provider closures due to worker shortages. Median paid caregiver wage is only $15.43/hour, yet facilities still cannot attract workers.
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@ -28,12 +28,6 @@ The mechanism is structural: the healthcare system's inability or unwillingness
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The causal direction could be questioned — do financially struggling individuals become caregivers, or does caregiving cause financial struggle? However, the AARP data shows these impacts occurring *during* caregiving, and the mechanism (lost work hours, stopped savings, added expenses) is direct and observable.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-aarp-caregiving-crisis-63-million]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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AARP 2025 documents that nearly half of caregivers experienced at least one major financial impact: taking on debt, stopping savings, or being unable to afford food. With 63 million Americans in caregiving roles averaging 18 hours/week, this represents a massive wealth transfer from working-age families to cover elder care that the formal system doesn't provide.
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@ -57,12 +57,6 @@ Gatekeeping is not inherently good or bad — it's a design choice with predicta
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The NHS demonstrates that you cannot have universal gatekeeping, excellent primary care, AND fast specialty access without funding specialty capacity to match primary care demand generation.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-00-00-nhs-england-waiting-times-underfunding]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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NHS data shows that while the system ranks 3rd overall in Commonwealth Fund rankings due to strong primary care and GP gatekeeping, only 58.9% of specialty patients are seen within 18 weeks versus a 92% target, with 22% waiting over 6 weeks for diagnostic tests. The GP referral requirement that strengthens primary care creates a structural bottleneck where specialty demand exceeds capacity by a factor requiring the waiting list to be halved just to reach minimum standards.
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@ -35,12 +35,6 @@ This has structural implications for how healthcare should be organized. Since [
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The Commonwealth Fund's 2024 Mirror Mirror international comparison provides the strongest real-world proof of this claim. The US ranks **second in care process quality** (clinical excellence when care is accessed) but **last in health outcomes** (life expectancy, avoidable deaths) among 10 peer nations. This paradox proves that clinical quality alone cannot produce population health — the US has near-best clinical care AND worst outcomes, demonstrating that non-clinical factors (access, equity, social determinants) dominate outcome determination. The care process vs. outcomes decoupling across 70 measures and nearly 75% patient/physician-reported data is the international benchmark showing medical care's limited contribution to population health outcomes.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-00-00-nhs-england-waiting-times-underfunding]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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The NHS paradox—ranking 3rd overall while having catastrophic specialty access—provides supporting evidence that medical care's contribution to health outcomes is limited. A system can have multi-year waits for specialty procedures yet still rank highly in overall health system performance because primary care, equity, and universal coverage (which address behavioral and social factors) matter more than specialty delivery speed for population health outcomes.
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@ -29,12 +29,6 @@ Politicians face a choice between:
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The political economy strongly favors Option A. The fiscal pressure builds continuously through the 2030s as the exhaustion date approaches, creating windows for reform regardless of partisan control.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-kff-medicare-advantage-2025-enrollment-update]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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The spending gap grew from $18B (2015) to $84B (2025), a 4.7x increase while enrollment only doubled. At 64% penetration by 2034 (CBO projection) with 20% per-person premium, annual overpayment will exceed $150B. The arithmetic forces reform regardless of political preferences.
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@ -31,12 +31,6 @@ Progress should mean happier, healthier populations, not merely more material po
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Japan's LTCI system explicitly shifted the burden of long-term care from family caregiving to social solidarity through mandatory insurance. Implemented in 2000, the system covers 5+ million elderly (17% of 65+ population) and integrates medical care with welfare services. This represents a deliberate policy choice to replace family-based care obligations with state-organized insurance, improving access and reducing financial burden on families while operating under extreme demographic pressure (28.4% of population 65+, rising to 40% by 2040-2050). The system's 25-year track record demonstrates that this transition from family to state/market structures is both viable and durable at national scale.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-aarp-caregiving-crisis-63-million]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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The caregiving crisis reveals a paradox in modernization: as family structures weaken and geographic mobility increases, the healthcare system becomes MORE dependent on family labor, not less. The 45% increase in family caregivers (53M to 63M over a decade) shows that when market and state alternatives fail, the burden returns to families—but now those families lack the multi-generational co-residence and community support structures that historically made caregiving sustainable. The result: 13 million caregivers unable to maintain their own health, nearly half experiencing financial crisis, and caregivers themselves becoming socially isolated.
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@ -23,12 +23,6 @@ Loneliness exists at the intersection of clinical medicine and social infrastruc
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Japan's LTCI system addresses the care infrastructure gap that the US relies on unpaid family labor ($870B annually) to fill. The system provides both facility-based and home-based care chosen by beneficiaries, integrating medical care with welfare services. This infrastructure directly addresses the social isolation problem by providing professional care delivery rather than relying on family members who may be geographically distant or unable to provide adequate care. Japan's solution demonstrates that treating long-term care as a social insurance problem rather than a family responsibility creates the infrastructure needed to address isolation at scale.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-aarp-caregiving-crisis-63-million]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Caregivers themselves become socially isolated as a direct consequence of caregiving responsibilities. With 63 million Americans providing an average 18 hours/week of unpaid care, and more than 13 million struggling to care for their own health, the caregiving role creates a structural pathway to social isolation. This compounds the $7B Medicare cost: not only are isolated elderly people costly, but the caregiving system creates new isolated individuals from the working-age population.
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@ -291,12 +291,6 @@ PACE provides the most comprehensive real-world test of the prevention-first att
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The Commonwealth Fund's 2024 international comparison provides evidence that the prevention-first attractor state is not theoretical — peer nations demonstrate it empirically. The top performers (Australia, Netherlands) achieve better health outcomes with lower spending as percentage of GDP, suggesting their systems have structural features that prevent rather than treat. The US paradox (2nd in care process, last in outcomes, highest spending, lowest efficiency) reveals a system optimized for treating sickness rather than producing health. The efficiency domain rankings (US among worst — highest spending, lowest return) quantify the cost of a sick-care attractor state. The international benchmark shows that systems with better access, equity, and prevention orientation achieve superior outcomes at lower cost, suggesting the prevention-first attractor state is achievable and economically superior to the current US sick-care model.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-kff-medicare-advantage-2025-enrollment-update]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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C-SNP growth of 71% in one year shows MA plans are rapidly building chronic disease management infrastructure. With 21% of MA enrollment now in SNPs (up from 14% in 2020), the market is structurally shifting toward continuous care management models that align with prevention-first economics.
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None identified. This is a measurement claim based on AARP's comprehensive national survey data.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-07-24-aarp-caregiving-crisis-63-million]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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The 45% increase in family caregivers over a decade (from 53M to 63M) demonstrates this isn't a stable hidden subsidy—it's a growing one. The caregiver count is rising faster than demographics alone would predict, indicating the formal care system's capacity gap is widening. With caregiver-to-elderly ratios declining and all 50 states experiencing paid workforce shortages, the invisible subsidy is becoming structurally unsustainable.
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This is the definitive international benchmark showing that the US healthcare system's failure is **structural** (access, equity, system design), not clinical. The care process vs. outcomes paradox directly supports the claim that medical care explains only 10-20% of health outcomes — the US has world-class clinical quality but worst population health because the non-clinical determinants dominate.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-00-00-nhs-england-waiting-times-underfunding]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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The NHS provides the inverse comparison: ranking 3rd overall in Commonwealth Fund Mirror Mirror 2024 despite having the worst specialty access and longest waiting times among peer nations. This reveals that the Commonwealth Fund methodology weights universal coverage, primary care access, and equity more heavily than specialty delivery outcomes. The US ranks last due to access/equity failures; the NHS ranks high despite specialty failures. Both demonstrate that no system optimizes all dimensions simultaneously—tradeoffs are structural.
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@ -29,12 +29,6 @@ PACE represents the extreme end of value-based care alignment—100% capitation
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GLP-1 persistence data illustrates why value-based care requires risk alignment: with only 32.3% of non-diabetic obesity patients remaining on GLP-1s at one year (15% at two years), the downstream savings that justify the upfront drug cost never materialize for 85% of patients. Under fee-for-service, the pharmacy benefit pays the cost but doesn't capture the avoided hospitalizations. Under partial risk (upside-only), providers have no incentive to invest in adherence support because they don't bear the cost of discontinuation. Only under full risk (capitation) does the entity paying for the drug also capture the downstream savings—but only if adherence is sustained. This makes GLP-1 economics a test case for whether value-based care can solve the "who pays vs. who benefits" misalignment.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-03-01-medicare-prior-authorization-glp1-near-universal]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Medicare Advantage plans bearing full capitated risk increased GLP-1 prior authorization from <5% to nearly 100% within two years (2023-2025), demonstrating that even full-risk capitation does not automatically align incentives toward prevention when short-term cost pressures dominate. Both BCBS and UnitedHealthcare implemented universal PA despite theoretical alignment under capitation.
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@ -97,12 +97,6 @@ MetaDAO ICO platform processed 8 projects from April 2025 to January 2026, raisi
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MetaDAO Q3 2024 roadmap prioritized launching a market-based grants product as the primary objective, with specific targets to launch 5 organizations and process 8 proposals through the product. This represents an expansion from pure ICO functionality to grants decision-making, demonstrating futarchy's application to capital allocation beyond fundraising.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-04-09-blockworks-ranger-ico-metadao-reset]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
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Ranger Finance ICO completed in April 2025, adding ~$9.1M to total Assets Under Futarchy, bringing the total to $57.3M across 10 launched projects. This represents continued momentum in futarchy-governed capital formation, with Ranger being a leveraged trading platform on Solana. The article also notes MetaDAO was 'considering strategic changes to its platform model' around this time, though details were not specified.
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@ -28,12 +28,6 @@ The mechanism addresses the "lack of liquidity" problem identified with CLOBs, w
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Rated experimental because this is a proposed design not yet deployed. The liquidity bootstrapping logic is sound but requires real-world validation.
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|
||||
### Additional Evidence (extend)
|
||||
*Source: [[2025-10-15-futardio-proposal-lets-get-futarded]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
Coal's v0.6 migration sets minimum liquidity requirements of 1500 USDC and 2000 coal for proposals, with OTC buyer lined up to purchase dev fund tokens and seed the futarchy AMM. This shows the liquidity bootstrapping pattern extends beyond initial launch to governance upgrades, where projects must arrange capital to meet minimum depth requirements before migration.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -21,6 +21,12 @@ This cost differential becomes material at scale: a DAO running 50 proposals ann
|
|||
- AMM state requirements described as "almost nothing"
|
||||
- State rent recovery requires autocrat program migration (feedback section)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
|
||||
*Source: [[2024-01-24-futardio-proposal-develop-amm-program-for-futarchy]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
MetaDAO proposal provides specific cost data: 'If we average 3-5 proposals per month, then annual costs for market creation is 135-225 SOL, or $11475-$19125 at current prices. AMMs cost almost nothing in state rent.' The proposal also notes that pass/fail market pairs cost 3.75 SOL in state rent which cannot currently be recouped, though feedback during voting pointed out that 'there are ways to recoup openbook state rent costs, though it would require a migration of the current autocrat program.'
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -23,6 +23,12 @@ This connects to [[MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume
|
|||
- Expected pattern: liquidity increases as proposal duration progresses
|
||||
- CLOB minimum order size (1 META) acts as spam filter but fragments liquidity further
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
|
||||
*Source: [[2024-01-24-futardio-proposal-develop-amm-program-for-futarchy]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
The proposal explicitly identifies lack of liquidity as the primary motivation for switching to AMMs: 'Estimating a fair price for the future value of MetaDao under pass/fail conditions is difficult, and most reasonable estimates will have a wide range. This uncertainty discourages people from risking their funds with limit orders near the midpoint price, and has the effect of reducing liquidity (and trading). This is the main reason for switching to AMMs.'
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -38,12 +38,6 @@ The new DAO parameters formalize the lesson: 120k USDC monthly spending limit (w
|
|||
- Mintable tokens introduce dilution risk that fixed-supply tokens avoid: if mint authority is misused, token holders face value extraction without recourse
|
||||
- Since [[futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opportunities for defenders]], minting decisions are themselves governable through futarchy — but this only works if the DAO has not already become inoperable from treasury exhaustion
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
|
||||
*Source: [[2025-10-15-futardio-proposal-lets-get-futarded]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
Coal DAO executed a one-time supply increase from 21M to 25M tokens (19% increase) to fund development and liquidity, demonstrating the practical necessity of mint authority for treasury operations. The proposal explicitly structured this as a one-time increase rather than ongoing emissions, suggesting DAOs try to preserve fixed-supply narratives while pragmatically requiring mint capability.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -43,12 +43,6 @@ Single-case evidence limits generalizability. The failure could be specific to:
|
|||
|
||||
However, this case provides concrete evidence that [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]] operates even when the economics appear favorable.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
|
||||
*Source: [[2024-08-27-futardio-proposal-fund-the-drift-superteam-earn-creator-competition]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
Drift's $8,250 creator competition proposal failed despite having clear upside potential (community engagement, content generation, B.E.T awareness) and minimal downside risk. The proposal offered a structured prize pool across multiple tracks (video, Twitter threads, trade ideas) with established evaluation criteria, yet still failed to generate sufficient market participation. This is a canonical example of participation friction killing an economically sensible proposal.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -36,6 +36,12 @@ The mechanism depends on futarchy-specific conditions (short duration, governanc
|
|||
- May reduce legitimate trading volume
|
||||
- LP attraction depends on base trading activity
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
|
||||
*Source: [[2024-01-24-futardio-proposal-develop-amm-program-for-futarchy]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
The proposal specifies using 3-5% fees with explicit dual purpose: 'By setting a high fee (3-5%) we can both: encourage LPs, and aggressively discourage wash-trading and manipulation.' This confirms the mechanism operates through fee structure creating opposing incentives for passive versus active participants.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -28,12 +28,6 @@ From the proposal:
|
|||
|
||||
This claim complements [[coin price is the fairest objective function for asset futarchy]] by identifying the specific context where coin price is unambiguously correct: assets with no purpose beyond speculation. It also relates to [[redistribution proposals are futarchys hardest unsolved problem because they can increase measured welfare while reducing productive value creation]]—memecoins avoid this problem by having no productive value to begin with.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
|
||||
*Source: [[2024-08-14-futardio-proposal-develop-memecoin-launchpad]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
MetaDAO's Futardio proposal explicitly states: 'One of the ideal use-cases for futarchy is memecoin governance. This is because memecoin holders only want the price of the token to increase. There's no question of "maybe the market knows what's the best short-term action, but not the best long-term action."' This provides direct confirmation from MetaDAO itself that memecoins eliminate the temporal tradeoff problem that complicates futarchy in other contexts.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -12,10 +12,10 @@ created: 2026-03-15
|
|||
The Autocrat v0.1 upgrade introduces configurable slots per proposal with a default of 3 days, explicitly designed to "allow for quicker feedback loops." This represents a significant reduction from previous implementations and addresses a key friction point in futarchy adoption: the time cost of decision-making. The proposal passed and migrated 990,000 META, 10,025 USDC, and 5.5 SOL to the new program, demonstrating community acceptance of faster iteration cycles. The architectural change makes proposal duration a parameter rather than a constant, allowing MetaDAO to tune the speed-quality tradeoff based on empirical results. This matters because governance mechanism adoption depends on matching decision velocity to organizational needs—too slow and participants route around the system, too fast and markets cannot aggregate information effectively.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
|
||||
*Source: [[2025-10-15-futardio-proposal-lets-get-futarded]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (extend)
|
||||
*Source: [[2024-01-24-futardio-proposal-develop-amm-program-for-futarchy]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
Coal's v0.6 parameters set proposal length at 3 days with 1-day TWAP delay, confirming this as the standard configuration for Autocrat v0.6 implementations. The combination of 1-day TWAP delay plus 3-day proposal window creates a 4-day total decision cycle.
|
||||
The proposal timeline estimates '3 weeks from passing proposal, with an additional week of review and minor changes' for implementation, suggesting the three-day proposal duration is for voting/market settlement, not development cycles. The proposal also mentions loosening time restrictions: 'currently set to 50 slots, which is very restrictive and has led to extra SOL costs to create redundant markets.'
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -30,12 +30,6 @@ The convergence toward lower volatility in recent launches (Ranger, Solomon, Pay
|
|||
## Limitations
|
||||
The source presents no failure cases despite eight ICOs, which suggests either selection bias in reporting or insufficient time for failures to materialize. The convergence toward lower volatility could indicate efficient pricing or could reflect declining speculative interest—longer observation periods needed to distinguish these hypotheses.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
### Additional Evidence (extend)
|
||||
*Source: [[2025-10-14-futardio-launch-avici]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
|
||||
|
||||
Avici achieved 17x oversubscription ($34.2M committed vs $2M target), exceeding the previously documented 15x benchmark and demonstrating continued strong market demand for futarchy-governed raises.
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Relevant Notes:
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -22,7 +22,6 @@ Community-driven animated IP founded by former VFX artists from Sony Pictures, A
|
|||
|
||||
- **2025-06-02** — Announced 39-episode × 7-minute CG-animated series co-production with Mediawan Kids & Family, targeting kids 6-12. Distribution strategy: YouTube premiere followed by traditional TV licensing. Community involvement includes sharing storyboards, scripts, and featuring holders' collectibles in episodes. 450M+ views, 200M+ impressions, 530K+ subscribers at announcement.
|
||||
|
||||
- **2025-10-01** — Announced 39-episode animated series (7 min each) launching YouTube-first with Method Animation (Mediawan) co-production, followed by TV/streaming sales. Gameloft mobile game in co-development. Community has generated nearly 1B social views. Nic Cabana presented creator-led transmedia strategy at VIEW Conference.
|
||||
## Relationship to KB
|
||||
|
||||
- Implements [[fanchise management is a stack of increasing fan engagement from content extensions through co-creation and co-ownership]] through specific co-creation mechanisms
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -49,8 +49,6 @@ MetaDAO's token launch platform. Implements "unruggable ICOs" — permissionless
|
|||
- **2026-03-05** — [[insert-coin-labs-futardio-fundraise]] launched for Web3 gaming studio (failed, $2,508 / $50K = 5% of target)
|
||||
- **2026-03-05** — [[git3-futardio-fundraise]] failed: Git3 raised $28,266 of $100K target (28.3%) before entering refunding status, demonstrating market filtering even with live MVP
|
||||
- **2024-06-14** — [[futardio-fund-rug-bounty-program]] passed: Approved $5K USDC funding for RugBounty.xyz platform development to incentivize community recovery from rug pulls
|
||||
- **2024-08-28** — MetaDAO proposal to develop futardio as memecoin launchpad with futarchy governance failed. Proposal would have allocated $100k grant over 6 months to development team. Key features: percentage of each new token supply allocated to futarchy DAO, points-to-token conversion within 180 days, revenue distribution to $FUTA holders, immutable deployment on IPFS/Arweave. Proposal rejected by market, suggesting reputational risks outweighed adoption benefits.
|
||||
- **2025-11-14** — Solomon launch: $8M raised (12.9x oversubscribed, $102.9M committed) for composable yield-bearing stablecoin
|
||||
## Competitive Position
|
||||
- **Unique mechanism**: Only launch platform with futarchy-governed accountability and treasury return guarantees
|
||||
- **vs pump.fun**: pump.fun is memecoin launch (zero accountability, pure speculation). Futardio is ownership coin launch (futarchy governance, treasury enforcement). Different categories despite both being "launch platforms."
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"rejected_claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "amm-futarchy-uses-liquidity-weighted-price-over-time-as-settlement-metric-creating-manipulation-resistance-through-capital-commitment-requirements.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "amm-futarchy-proposer-liquidity-lockup-requirement-bootstraps-initial-market-depth-and-filters-spam-proposals.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "amm-futarchy-enables-granular-trading-below-minimum-order-sizes-that-clob-systems-require-for-spam-prevention.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"validation_stats": {
|
||||
"total": 3,
|
||||
"kept": 0,
|
||||
"fixed": 6,
|
||||
"rejected": 3,
|
||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-uses-liquidity-weighted-price-over-time-as-settlement-metric-creating-manipulation-resistance-through-capital-commitment-requirements.md:set_created:2026-03-15",
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-uses-liquidity-weighted-price-over-time-as-settlement-metric-creating-manipulation-resistance-through-capital-commitment-requirements.md:stripped_wiki_link:liquidity-weighted-price-over-time-solves-futarchy-manipulat",
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-uses-liquidity-weighted-price-over-time-as-settlement-metric-creating-manipulation-resistance-through-capital-commitment-requirements.md:stripped_wiki_link:liquidity-weighted-price-over-time-solves-futarchy-manipulat",
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-proposer-liquidity-lockup-requirement-bootstraps-initial-market-depth-and-filters-spam-proposals.md:set_created:2026-03-15",
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-proposer-liquidity-lockup-requirement-bootstraps-initial-market-depth-and-filters-spam-proposals.md:stripped_wiki_link:amm-futarchy-bootstraps-liquidity-through-high-fee-incentive",
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-enables-granular-trading-below-minimum-order-sizes-that-clob-systems-require-for-spam-prevention.md:set_created:2026-03-15"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"rejections": [
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-uses-liquidity-weighted-price-over-time-as-settlement-metric-creating-manipulation-resistance-through-capital-commitment-requirements.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-proposer-liquidity-lockup-requirement-bootstraps-initial-market-depth-and-filters-spam-proposals.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
|
||||
"amm-futarchy-enables-granular-trading-below-minimum-order-sizes-that-clob-systems-require-for-spam-prevention.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-15"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,44 +0,0 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"rejected_claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "futarchy-governed-memecoin-launchpads-face-reputational-risk-tradeoff-between-adoption-and-credibility.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "memecoin-launchpad-with-futarchy-allocation-creates-governance-bootstrapping-mechanism.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "hyperstructure-deployment-requires-immutability-open-source-and-decentralized-governance-before-token-launch.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"no_frontmatter"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"validation_stats": {
|
||||
"total": 3,
|
||||
"kept": 0,
|
||||
"fixed": 7,
|
||||
"rejected": 3,
|
||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"futarchy-governed-memecoin-launchpads-face-reputational-risk-tradeoff-between-adoption-and-credibility.md:set_created:2026-03-15",
|
||||
"futarchy-governed-memecoin-launchpads-face-reputational-risk-tradeoff-between-adoption-and-credibility.md:stripped_wiki_link:memecoin-governance-is-ideal-futarchy-use-case-because-singl",
|
||||
"futarchy-governed-memecoin-launchpads-face-reputational-risk-tradeoff-between-adoption-and-credibility.md:stripped_wiki_link:futarchy-governed-permissionless-launches-require-brand-sepa",
|
||||
"memecoin-launchpad-with-futarchy-allocation-creates-governance-bootstrapping-mechanism.md:set_created:2026-03-15",
|
||||
"memecoin-launchpad-with-futarchy-allocation-creates-governance-bootstrapping-mechanism.md:stripped_wiki_link:MetaDAO-is-the-futarchy-launchpad-on-Solana-where-projects-r",
|
||||
"memecoin-launchpad-with-futarchy-allocation-creates-governance-bootstrapping-mechanism.md:stripped_wiki_link:futarchy-governed-meme-coins-attract-speculative-capital-at-",
|
||||
"hyperstructure-deployment-requires-immutability-open-source-and-decentralized-governance-before-token-launch.md:set_created:2026-03-15"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"rejections": [
|
||||
"futarchy-governed-memecoin-launchpads-face-reputational-risk-tradeoff-between-adoption-and-credibility.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
|
||||
"memecoin-launchpad-with-futarchy-allocation-creates-governance-bootstrapping-mechanism.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
|
||||
"hyperstructure-deployment-requires-immutability-open-source-and-decentralized-governance-before-token-launch.md:no_frontmatter"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-15"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,32 +0,0 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"rejected_claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "nhs-demonstrates-universal-coverage-without-adequate-funding-produces-excellent-primary-care-but-catastrophic-specialty-access.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "chronic-underfunding-produces-exponential-degradation-in-specialty-access-as-nhs-respiratory-wait-times-show-263-percent-growth.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"validation_stats": {
|
||||
"total": 2,
|
||||
"kept": 0,
|
||||
"fixed": 2,
|
||||
"rejected": 2,
|
||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"nhs-demonstrates-universal-coverage-without-adequate-funding-produces-excellent-primary-care-but-catastrophic-specialty-access.md:set_created:2026-03-15",
|
||||
"chronic-underfunding-produces-exponential-degradation-in-specialty-access-as-nhs-respiratory-wait-times-show-263-percent-growth.md:set_created:2026-03-15"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"rejections": [
|
||||
"nhs-demonstrates-universal-coverage-without-adequate-funding-produces-excellent-primary-care-but-catastrophic-specialty-access.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
|
||||
"chronic-underfunding-produces-exponential-degradation-in-specialty-access-as-nhs-respiratory-wait-times-show-263-percent-growth.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-15"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,24 +0,0 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"rejected_claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "medicare-advantage-prior-authorization-escalation-from-5-to-100-percent-demonstrates-capitated-plans-prioritize-short-term-cost-avoidance-over-long-term-prevention.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"validation_stats": {
|
||||
"total": 1,
|
||||
"kept": 0,
|
||||
"fixed": 1,
|
||||
"rejected": 1,
|
||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"medicare-advantage-prior-authorization-escalation-from-5-to-100-percent-demonstrates-capitated-plans-prioritize-short-term-cost-avoidance-over-long-term-prevention.md:set_created:2026-03-15"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"rejections": [
|
||||
"medicare-advantage-prior-authorization-escalation-from-5-to-100-percent-demonstrates-capitated-plans-prioritize-short-term-cost-avoidance-over-long-term-prevention.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-15"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,36 +0,0 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"rejected_claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "content-as-loss-leader-achieves-zero-marginal-customer-acquisition-cost-by-converting-audience-into-distribution.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "retail-distribution-partnerships-capture-margin-while-content-built-brands-capture-premium-in-cpg-value-chain.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"validation_stats": {
|
||||
"total": 2,
|
||||
"kept": 0,
|
||||
"fixed": 6,
|
||||
"rejected": 2,
|
||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"content-as-loss-leader-achieves-zero-marginal-customer-acquisition-cost-by-converting-audience-into-distribution.md:set_created:2026-03-15",
|
||||
"content-as-loss-leader-achieves-zero-marginal-customer-acquisition-cost-by-converting-audience-into-distribution.md:stripped_wiki_link:the-media-attractor-state-is-community-filtered-IP-with-AI-c",
|
||||
"content-as-loss-leader-achieves-zero-marginal-customer-acquisition-cost-by-converting-audience-into-distribution.md:stripped_wiki_link:giving-away-the-commoditized-layer-to-capture-value-on-the-s",
|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
|
|
@ -1,58 +0,0 @@
|
|||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
|
|
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|
|||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
|
|
@ -1,27 +0,0 @@
|
|||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
@ -1,40 +0,0 @@
|
|||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
@ -1,48 +0,0 @@
|
|||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
|
|
@ -1,34 +0,0 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
|
|
@ -1,47 +0,0 @@
|
|||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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||||
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|
||||
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||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
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|
||||
"futarchy-development-fund-disbursement-caps-with-escalating-thresholds-create-operational-flexibility-with-manipulation-resistance.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
|
||||
"meta-holder-airdrops-to-futarchy-governed-projects-create-cross-dao-network-effects-through-stakeholder-overlap.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-15"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,26 +0,0 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"rejected_claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "lst-based-privacy-mixers-solve-opportunity-cost-paradox-by-converting-anonymity-waiting-periods-into-yield-generating-staking-positions.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"validation_stats": {
|
||||
"total": 1,
|
||||
"kept": 0,
|
||||
"fixed": 3,
|
||||
"rejected": 1,
|
||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"lst-based-privacy-mixers-solve-opportunity-cost-paradox-by-converting-anonymity-waiting-periods-into-yield-generating-staking-positions.md:set_created:2026-03-15",
|
||||
"lst-based-privacy-mixers-solve-opportunity-cost-paradox-by-converting-anonymity-waiting-periods-into-yield-generating-staking-positions.md:stripped_wiki_link:internet-capital-markets-compress-fundraising-from-months-to",
|
||||
"lst-based-privacy-mixers-solve-opportunity-cost-paradox-by-converting-anonymity-waiting-periods-into-yield-generating-staking-positions.md:stripped_wiki_link:MetaDAO-is-the-futarchy-launchpad-on-Solana-where-projects-r"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"rejections": [
|
||||
"lst-based-privacy-mixers-solve-opportunity-cost-paradox-by-converting-anonymity-waiting-periods-into-yield-generating-staking-positions.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-15"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,24 +0,0 @@
|
|||
{
|
||||
"rejected_claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"filename": "demographic-composition-of-alignment-training-data-produces-measurable-behavioral-differences-in-model-outputs.md",
|
||||
"issues": [
|
||||
"missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
],
|
||||
"validation_stats": {
|
||||
"total": 1,
|
||||
"kept": 0,
|
||||
"fixed": 1,
|
||||
"rejected": 1,
|
||||
"fixes_applied": [
|
||||
"demographic-composition-of-alignment-training-data-produces-measurable-behavioral-differences-in-model-outputs.md:set_created:2026-03-15"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"rejections": [
|
||||
"demographic-composition-of-alignment-training-data-produces-measurable-behavioral-differences-in-model-outputs.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
|
||||
]
|
||||
},
|
||||
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
|
||||
"date": "2026-03-15"
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -6,9 +6,13 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/CF9QUBS251FnNGZHLJ4WbB2CVRi5BtqJbCqMi47NX1P
|
|||
date: 2024-01-24
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||
event_type: proposal
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["amm-futarchy-reduces-state-rent-costs-by-99-percent-versus-clob-by-eliminating-orderbook-storage-requirements.md", "futarchy-clob-liquidity-fragmentation-creates-wide-spreads-because-pricing-counterfactual-governance-outcomes-has-inherent-uncertainty.md", "high-fee-amms-create-lp-incentive-and-manipulation-deterrent-simultaneously-by-making-passive-provision-profitable-and-active-trading-expensive.md", "metadao-autocrat-v01-reduces-proposal-duration-to-three-days-enabling-faster-governance-iteration.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Proposal Details
|
||||
|
|
@ -128,3 +132,14 @@ Any important changes or feedback brought up during the proposal vote will be re
|
|||
- Autocrat version: 0.1
|
||||
- Completed: 2024-01-29
|
||||
- Ended: 2024-01-29
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- MetaDAO proposal CF9QUBS251FnNGZHLJ4WbB2CVRi5BtqJbCqMi47NX1PG passed on 2024-01-29
|
||||
- Proposal budget: 400 META on passing, 800 META on completed migration
|
||||
- Implementation team: joebuild (program), 0xNalloK (frontend), TBD (review)
|
||||
- CLOB pass/fail market pairs cost 3.75 SOL in state rent
|
||||
- Estimated annual CLOB costs: 135-225 SOL ($11,475-$19,125 at time of proposal)
|
||||
- Proposed AMM fee range: 3-5%
|
||||
- Current CLOB minimum order size: 1 META
|
||||
- Proposal creation time restriction: 50 slots between market creation and proposal creation
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -6,13 +6,9 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/J57DcV2yQGiDpSetQHui6Piwjwsbet2ozXVPG77kTvT
|
|||
date: 2024-08-14
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||
event_type: proposal
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["memecoin-governance-is-ideal-futarchy-use-case-because-single-objective-function-eliminates-long-term-tradeoff-ambiguity.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Proposal Details
|
||||
|
|
@ -128,15 +124,3 @@ This would all be left to the discretion of the team building it, but they would
|
|||
- Autocrat version: 0.3
|
||||
- Completed: 2024-08-18
|
||||
- Ended: 2024-08-18
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- MetaDAO Futardio proposal was created on 2024-08-14 and completed on 2024-08-18 with Failed status
|
||||
- Proposal account: J57DcV2yQGiDpSetQHui6Piwjwsbet2ozXVPG77kTvTd
|
||||
- Proposal number: 5
|
||||
- Proposer: 65U66fcYuNfqN12vzateJhZ4bgDuxFWN9gMwraeQKByg
|
||||
- Futardio would have offered $100k grant paid over 6 months to development team
|
||||
- Target launch window was Q3 2024
|
||||
- Points-to-token conversion capped at 180 days maximum
|
||||
- FUTA token distribution limited to points owners and MetaDAO only
|
||||
- Nallok and Proph3t would support but not be core team
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -6,13 +6,9 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/AKMnVnSC8DzoZJktErtzR2QNt1ESoN8i2DdHPYuQTMG
|
|||
date: 2024-08-27
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||
event_type: proposal
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["futarchy-proposals-with-favorable-economics-can-fail-due-to-participation-friction-not-market-disagreement.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Proposal Details
|
||||
|
|
@ -79,14 +75,3 @@ Link to campaign details and evaluation criteria: [Link](https://docs.google.com
|
|||
- Autocrat version: 0.3
|
||||
- Completed: 2024-08-31
|
||||
- Ended: 2024-08-31
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Drift Protocol is the largest open-sourced perpetual futures exchange built on Solana
|
||||
- Drift launched B.E.T, described as Solana's first capital efficient prediction market
|
||||
- The Drift Superteam Earn Creator Competition proposal (AKMnVnSC8DzoZJktErtzR2QNt1ESoN8i2DdHPYuQTMGY) was proposal #4 on MetaDAO
|
||||
- The proposal requested $8,250 total prize pool split across: Grand prize ($3,000), Video track ($1,750), Twitter thread track ($1,750), Trade ideas track ($1,750)
|
||||
- Each individual contest had prize structure: 1st place $1,000, 2nd place $500, 3rd place $250
|
||||
- Funding would have come from Drift Foundation Grants Program in DRIFT tokens
|
||||
- Competition would have been run through Superteam Earn platform
|
||||
- Proposal was created 2024-08-27, completed and ended 2024-08-31, status: Failed
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-01-01
|
|||
domain: health
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: report
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
tags: [nhs, universal-coverage, waiting-times, underfunding, international-comparison, uk-healthcare]
|
||||
processed_by: vida
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["gatekeeping-systems-optimize-primary-care-at-the-expense-of-specialty-access-creating-structural-bottlenecks.md", "us-healthcare-ranks-last-among-peer-nations-despite-highest-spending-because-access-and-equity-failures-override-clinical-quality.md", "medical care explains only 10-20 percent of health outcomes because behavioral social and genetic factors dominate as four independent methodologies confirm.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -64,16 +60,3 @@ extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[medical care explains only 10-20 percent of health outcomes because behavioral social and genetic factors dominate as four independent methodologies confirm]]
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Cautionary international comparison — shows what universal coverage does and doesn't solve.
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: The paradox of ranking 3rd overall while having worst specialty access is the extractable insight. Different metrics tell different stories about the same system.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- NHS has 7.5 million patients on waiting lists as of 2024-2025
|
||||
- Only 58.9% of NHS waiting patients seen within 18-week target (standard: 92%)
|
||||
- 22% of NHS patients wait over 6 weeks for diagnostic tests (standard: 1%)
|
||||
- NHS waiting list must be halved to 3.4 million to reach 92% standard
|
||||
- NHS target of 65% within 18 weeks by March 2026 unlikely to be met
|
||||
- NHS respiratory medicine waiting lists increased 263% over past decade
|
||||
- NHS gynaecology waiting lists increased 223% over past decade
|
||||
- NHS has shortfall of 3.6 million diagnostic tests
|
||||
- NHS ranks 3rd overall in Commonwealth Fund Mirror Mirror 2024
|
||||
- Trauma/orthopaedics and ENT have largest NHS waiting times
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-03-01
|
|||
domain: health
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: article
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
tags: [glp-1, prior-authorization, medicare-advantage, formulary, access-barriers]
|
||||
processed_by: vida
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["value-based care transitions stall at the payment boundary because 60 percent of payments touch value metrics but only 14 percent bear full risk.md", "GLP-1 receptor agonists are the largest therapeutic category launch in pharmaceutical history but their chronic use model makes the net cost impact inflationary through 2035.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -48,12 +44,3 @@ Analysis of GLP-1 coverage and prior authorization requirements under Medicare A
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[value-based care transitions stall at the payment boundary because 60 percent of payments touch value metrics but only 14 percent bear full risk]]
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Near-universal PA for GLP-1s under MA demonstrates that capitation alone doesn't align incentives for prevention — MA plans still manage to short-term cost metrics
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the tension between theoretical capitation incentives (cover prevention → save money) and actual MA behavior (restrict access → minimize short-term spend)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Injectable semaglutide (Ozempic) covered by 98.0% of MA plans in 2025
|
||||
- Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) covered by 96.2% of MA plans in 2025
|
||||
- Oral semaglutide covered by 84.8% of MA plans in 2025
|
||||
- Dulaglutide covered by 87.5% of MA plans in 2025
|
||||
- Only 13 state Medicaid programs covered GLP-1s for obesity as of January 2026
|
||||
- GLP-1s for weight loss/obesity remain excluded under Medicare Part D until BALANCE model demonstration begins July 2026
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-03-10
|
|||
domain: entertainment
|
||||
secondary_domains: [internet-finance]
|
||||
format: article
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
tags: [content-as-loss-leader, mrbeast, feastables, creator-economy, distribution, value-capture]
|
||||
processed_by: clay
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["beast-industries-5b-valuation-prices-content-as-loss-leader-model-at-enterprise-scale.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -47,15 +43,3 @@ extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: when profits disappear at one layer of a value chain they emerge at an adjacent layer through the conservation of attractive profits
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Strongest real-world evidence of conservation of attractive profits in entertainment — content profits disappeared ($-80M), emerged at adjacent layer (Feastables $+20M), but the AGGREGATE system is profitable because content creates audience at zero marginal cost
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: The key insight isn't "MrBeast is rich" — it's that content-as-loss-leader at this scale proves the attractor state mechanism. Focus on the structural economics, not the personality.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Beast Industries media business (YouTube + Amazon Prime) lost $80M in 2024
|
||||
- Feastables generated $250M revenue and $20M+ profit in 2024
|
||||
- Feastables projected $520M revenue in 2025 vs $288M from YouTube
|
||||
- Media projected to be only 1/5 of total Beast Industries sales by 2026
|
||||
- Beast Industries raising at $5B valuation
|
||||
- Beast Industries revenue projections: $899M (2025), $1.6B (2026), $4.78B (2029)
|
||||
- Feastables distributed through 30,000+ retail locations across US, Canada, Mexico
|
||||
- Traditional CPG brands (Hershey's, Mars) spend 10-15% of revenue on advertising
|
||||
- Beast Industries operates five verticals: software (Viewstats), CPG (Feastables, Lunchly), health/wellness, media, video games
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-04-09
|
|||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: article
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
tags: [metadao, ranger-finance, ICO, assets-under-futarchy, ownership-coins]
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -47,11 +43,3 @@ extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]]
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Latest AUF figure ($57.3M) and "strategic reset" signal worth tracking
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: The AUF metric is data for updating existing claims; the "strategic reset" needs follow-up investigation
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- MetaDAO total Assets Under Futarchy reached $57.3M as of April 9, 2025
|
||||
- Ranger Finance ICO added approximately $9.1M to MetaDAO's AUF
|
||||
- MetaDAO has launched 10 projects to date as of April 2025
|
||||
- MetaDAO ICO sales use a 4-day deposit period with USDC
|
||||
- MetaDAO was considering a 'strategic reset' to its platform model in April 2025
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-06-30
|
|||
domain: ai-alignment
|
||||
secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
|
||||
format: paper
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
tags: [RLCF, community-notes, bridging-algorithm, pluralistic-alignment, human-AI-collaboration, LLM-alignment]
|
||||
processed_by: theseus
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["rlhf-is-implicit-social-choice-without-normative-scrutiny.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -55,11 +51,3 @@ Proposes a hybrid model for Community Notes where both humans and LLMs write not
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: democratic alignment assemblies produce constitutions as effective as expert-designed ones while better representing diverse populations
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: First concrete specification of RLCF — transitions from design principle to implementable mechanism
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the architecture (who generates, who rates, what selects) and the homogenization risk — the "optimally inoffensive" failure mode is a key tension with our bridging-based alignment thesis
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Community Notes uses a hybrid model where both humans and LLMs write notes, but humans alone rate them
|
||||
- The bridging algorithm uses matrix factorization: y_ij = w_i * x_j + b_i + c_j where c_j is the bridging score
|
||||
- Notes must receive support from raters with diverse viewpoints to surface
|
||||
- The paper was published in the Journal of Online Trust and Safety in June 2025
|
||||
- Key risks identified: helpfulness hacking, declining human engagement, homogenization, rater capacity overwhelm
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-06-01
|
|||
domain: entertainment
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: article
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
tags: [claynosaurz, mediawan, animated-series, community-ip, web3-entertainment, narrative-ambition]
|
||||
processed_by: clay
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["community-co-creation-in-animation-production-includes-storyboard-sharing-script-collaboration-and-collectible-integration-as-specific-mechanisms.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -43,14 +39,3 @@ Key details:
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[progressive validation through community building reduces development risk by proving audience demand before production investment]]
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: First community-owned IP animated series in production — test case for whether community IP produces meaningful storytelling or brand content
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: The quality signal is the creative team caliber and Mediawan partnership. Community IP attracting studio-quality talent suggests the model doesn't sacrifice narrative ambition.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Claynosaurz animated series: 39 episodes x 7 minutes each
|
||||
- Production by Method Animation
|
||||
- Distribution strategy: YouTube first, then TV and streaming sales
|
||||
- Creative team includes artists from Illumination, DreamWorks, Sony, Disney, and Ubisoft
|
||||
- Claynosaurz has nearly 1B social views pre-production
|
||||
- IMDB listing created: tt37155700
|
||||
- Story follows four dinosaur friends on a mysterious island
|
||||
- Described as 'first time a digital collectible brand is expanded into a TV series'
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-06-02
|
|||
domain: entertainment
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: article
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
tags: [claynosaurz, mediawan, animated-series, youtube-distribution, community-ip, co-production]
|
||||
processed_by: clay
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["youtube-first-distribution-for-major-studio-coproductions-signals-platform-primacy-over-traditional-broadcast-windowing.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -52,11 +48,3 @@ extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: traditional media buyers now seek content with pre-existing community engagement data as risk mitigation
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: The co-production structure (not licensing) represents a new relationship between community IP and traditional production infrastructure that preserves community control
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: Two distinct claims: (1) co-production vs licensing as structural innovation for community IP, (2) YouTube-first launch as risk-reduction through audience proof before traditional distribution commitment
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Claynosaurz-Mediawan deal is for 39 episodes of 7 minutes each
|
||||
- Claynosaurz community has generated ~1 billion views across social platforms
|
||||
- Deal was presented at Annecy International Animation Festival in June 2025
|
||||
- Paw Patrol creator visited to understand the community-first production model
|
||||
- Mediawan and Gameloft CEOs engaged directly with Claynosaurz community token holders
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-07-24
|
|||
domain: health
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: report
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
tags: [caregiving, unpaid-care, workforce-crisis, aging, social-determinants, economic-value]
|
||||
processed_by: vida
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["unpaid-family-caregiving-provides-870-billion-annually-representing-16-percent-of-total-us-health-economy-invisible-to-policy-models.md", "caregiver-workforce-crisis-shows-all-50-states-experiencing-shortages-with-43-states-reporting-facility-closures-signaling-care-infrastructure-collapse.md", "family-caregiving-functions-as-poverty-transmission-mechanism-forcing-debt-savings-depletion-and-food-insecurity-on-working-age-population.md", "modernization dismantles family and community structures replacing them with market and state relationships that increase individual freedom but erode psychosocial foundations of wellbeing.md", "social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually and carries mortality risk equivalent to smoking 15 cigarettes per day making loneliness a clinical condition not a personal problem.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -57,16 +53,3 @@ extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[modernization dismantles family and community structures replacing them with market and state relationships that increase individual freedom but erode psychosocial foundations of wellbeing]]
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Fills the caregiver crisis gap in the KB — essential for understanding the senior care infrastructure that exists outside formal healthcare systems.
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: The $870B figure compared to total US healthcare spending ($5.3T) — unpaid care is 16% of the total health economy, invisible to every policy model.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- 63 million Americans provide unpaid care as of 2025 (up from 53 million, a 45% increase over past decade)
|
||||
- Unpaid caregiving valued at $870 billion annually (previously estimated $600B based on 38M caregivers)
|
||||
- Average caregiver provides 18 hours/week, totaling 36 billion hours annually
|
||||
- More than 13 million caregivers struggle to care for their own health
|
||||
- Paid caregivers earn median $15.43/hour
|
||||
- 92% of nursing homes report significant/severe workforce shortages
|
||||
- ~70% of assisted living facilities report significant/severe shortages
|
||||
- All 50 states experiencing home care worker shortages
|
||||
- 43 states report HCBS providers have closed due to worker shortages
|
||||
- Nearly half of caregivers experienced at least one major financial impact (debt, stopped savings, or food insecurity)
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-07-24
|
|||
domain: health
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
tags: [medicare-advantage, enrollment, market-concentration, market-share, kff]
|
||||
processed_by: vida
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["medicare-fiscal-pressure-forces-ma-reform-by-2030s-through-arithmetic-not-ideology.md", "Devoted is the fastest-growing MA plan at 121 percent growth because purpose-built technology outperforms acquisition-based vertical integration during CMS tightening.md", "the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system where aligned payment continuous monitoring and AI-augmented care delivery create a flywheel that profits from health rather than sickness.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -83,18 +79,3 @@ extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system where aligned payment continuous monitoring and AI-augmented care delivery create a flywheel that profits from health rather than sickness]]
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Essential market structure data — the enrollment trajectory and concentration metrics ground claims about where the US healthcare system is actually heading vs. where theory says it should go.
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: The spending gap growing 4.7x while enrollment only doubled is the key structural insight — scale is making the overpayment problem worse, not better.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- MA enrollment: 7.6M (19%) in 2007, 10.8M (25%) in 2010, 16.2M (32%) in 2015, 23.8M (42%) in 2020, 30.8M (51%) in 2023, 32.8M (54%) in 2024, 34.1M (54%) in 2025
|
||||
- CBO projects MA penetration will reach 64% by 2034
|
||||
- MA growth rate 2024-2025: 4% (1.3M additional enrollees)
|
||||
- 2025 MA market share: UnitedHealth 29%, Humana 17%, CVS/Aetna 12%, Elevance 7%, Kaiser 6%, all others 30%
|
||||
- 815 counties (26% of all US counties) have 75%+ enrollment concentration in UHG and Humana
|
||||
- Average beneficiary has 9 parent organization options; 36% have 10+ plan options
|
||||
- MA plan type distribution 2025: Individual 62%, SNPs 21%, Employer/union 17%
|
||||
- SNP breakdown 2025: D-SNPs 83%, C-SNPs 16%, I-SNPs 2%
|
||||
- C-SNP enrollment: 1.2M in 2025, 71% growth year-over-year
|
||||
- Total SNP enrollment: 7.3M (21% of MA) in 2025, up from 14% in 2020
|
||||
- Federal MA spending premium: $84B in 2025 (20% per-person), $18B in 2015
|
||||
- Employer/union group MA plans: first year of flat growth in ~10 years
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-08-07
|
|||
domain: ai-alignment
|
||||
secondary_domains: [critical-systems]
|
||||
format: paper
|
||||
status: null-result
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
tags: [arrows-theorem, machine-intelligence, impossibility, Legg-Hutter, Chollet-ARC, formal-proof]
|
||||
processed_by: theseus
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -45,10 +41,3 @@ No agent-environment-based MIM simultaneously satisfies analogs of Arrow's fairn
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: universal alignment is mathematically impossible because Arrows impossibility theorem applies to aggregating diverse human preferences into a single coherent objective
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Fourth independent impossibility tradition — extends Arrow's theorem from alignment to intelligence measurement itself
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the extension from preference aggregation to intelligence measurement and what this means for alignment targets
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Oswald, Ferguson & Bringsjord published formal proof at AGI 2025 (Conference on Artificial General Intelligence)
|
||||
- Paper appears in Springer LNCS vol. 16058
|
||||
- Proof covers Legg-Hutter Intelligence and Chollet's Intelligence Measure (ARC)
|
||||
- Full paper is paywalled at Springer
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/C61vTUyxTq5SWwbrTFEyYeXpGQLKhRRvRrGsu6YUa6C
|
|||
date: 2025-08-20
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: null-result
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||
event_type: proposal
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
|
|
@ -19,10 +19,6 @@ processed_date: 2026-03-11
|
|||
enrichments_applied: ["time-based-token-vesting-is-hedgeable-making-standard-lockups-meaningless-as-alignment-mechanisms-because-investors-can-short-sell-to-neutralize-lockup-exposure-while-appearing-locked.md", "MetaDAOs-futarchy-implementation-shows-limited-trading-volume-in-uncontested-decisions.md", "futarchy-adoption-faces-friction-from-token-price-psychology-proposal-complexity-and-liquidity-requirements.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
extraction_notes: "No new claims extracted. Source provides concrete example of forfeit-for-liquidity mechanism as alternative to vesting hedgeability, and additional data point on futarchy adoption friction and low-volume uncontested decisions. Created decision_market entity for the proposal and enriched three existing claims with mechanism design insights and futarchy implementation patterns."
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 0 claims, 0 rejected by validator"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Proposal Details
|
||||
|
|
@ -87,14 +83,3 @@ Read the full proposal here https://research.sanctum.so/t/cloud-005-should-sanct
|
|||
- Team committed not to redistribute forfeited tokens for 24 months
|
||||
- Used MetaDAO Autocrat v0.3
|
||||
- DAO account: GVmi7ngRAVsUHh8REhKDsB2yNftJTNRt5qMLHDDCizov
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Sanctum proposal C61vTUyxTq5SWwbrTFEyYeXpGQLKhRRvRrGsu6YUa6CX failed on 2025-08-23
|
||||
- Proposal used MetaDAO Autocrat v0.3
|
||||
- 9% of CLOUD token supply was unlocking monthly over 24 months from investors
|
||||
- Proposal offered 35% forfeit rate for immediate unlock
|
||||
- Potential increase of up to 27 million CLOUD to Team Reserve if all investors opted in
|
||||
- Team committed not to redistribute forfeited tokens for 24 months
|
||||
- DAO account: GVmi7ngRAVsUHh8REhKDsB2yNftJTNRt5qMLHDDCizov
|
||||
- Proposer account: proPaC9tVZEsmgDtNhx15e7nSpoojtPD3H9h4GqSqB2
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -6,13 +6,9 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/2rYvdtK8ovuSziJuy5gTTPtviY5CfTnW6Pps4pk7ehEq"
|
|||
date: 2025-10-14
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
|
||||
event_type: launch
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Launch Details
|
||||
|
|
@ -57,11 +53,3 @@ Token CA: [`BANKJmvhT8tiJRsBSS1n2HryMBPvT5Ze4HU95DUAmeta`](https://jup.ag/tokens
|
|||
- Version: v0.6
|
||||
- Final raise: $3,500,000.00
|
||||
- Closed: 2025-10-18
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Avici DAO raised $34,230,976 committed against $2M target on futardio (Oct 14-18, 2025)
|
||||
- Avici final raise amount was $3,500,000
|
||||
- Avici token mint address: BANKJmvhT8tiJRsBSS1n2HryMBPvT5Ze4HU95DUAmeta
|
||||
- Avici launch address: 2rYvdtK8ovuSziJuy5gTTPtviY5CfTnW6Pps4pk7ehEq
|
||||
- Avici uses futardio platform version v0.6
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -6,13 +6,9 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/6c1dnggYNpEZvz4fedJ19LAo8Pz2mTTvT6LxySYhpLb
|
|||
date: 2025-10-15
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
|
||||
event_type: proposal
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["futarchy-daos-require-mintable-governance-tokens-because-fixed-supply-treasuries-exhaust-without-issuance-authority-forcing-disruptive-token-architecture-migrations.md", "amm-futarchy-bootstraps-liquidity-through-high-fee-incentives-and-required-proposer-initial-liquidity-creating-self-reinforcing-depth.md", "metadao-autocrat-v01-reduces-proposal-duration-to-three-days-enabling-faster-governance-iteration.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Proposal Details
|
||||
|
|
@ -101,14 +97,3 @@ Voting
|
|||
- Autocrat version: 0.3
|
||||
- Completed: 2025-10-18
|
||||
- Ended: 2025-10-18
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Coal DAO proposal 3 passed on October 18, 2025
|
||||
- Coal airdropped 420 tokens to each of 2,314 META holders
|
||||
- Coal total supply increased from 21,000,000 to 25,000,000 tokens
|
||||
- Coal development fund received 3,028,120 tokens
|
||||
- Coal v0.6 governance requires 10,000 COAL staked to create proposals
|
||||
- Coal v0.6 pass threshold is 100 basis points
|
||||
- Coal DAO account: 3LGGRzLrgwhEbEsNYBSTZc5MLve1bw3nDaHzzfJMQ1PG
|
||||
- Coal proposal account: 6c1dnggYNpEZvz4fedJ19LAo8Pz2mTTvT6LxySYhpLbA
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/4h248CdXdeWtxWnHxEPqa5ruYZaEwXRZPyDFYnndbzpR"
|
|||
date: 2025-10-20
|
||||
domain: internet-finance
|
||||
format: data
|
||||
status: null-result
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
|
||||
event_type: launch
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
|
|
@ -14,10 +14,6 @@ processed_date: 2025-10-20
|
|||
enrichments_applied: ["internet-capital-markets-compress-fundraising-from-months-to-days-because-permissionless-raises-eliminate-gatekeepers-while-futarchy-replaces-due-diligence-bottlenecks-with-real-time-market-pricing.md", "MetaDAO-is-the-futarchy-launchpad-on-Solana-where-projects-raise-capital-through-unruggable-ICOs-governed-by-conditional-markets-creating-the-first-platform-for-ownership-coins-at-scale.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
extraction_notes: "Extracted one novel claim about LST-based privacy mixers solving opportunity cost paradox. Enriched two existing claims with fundraising speed and platform scope evidence. Source is primarily a launch announcement with project description - limited technical detail but strong market signal via oversubscription. Confidence capped at experimental due to single-source evidence and lack of post-launch usage data."
|
||||
processed_by: rio
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 1 claims, 1 rejected by validator"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Launch Details
|
||||
|
|
@ -81,15 +77,3 @@ Token CA: [`ZKFHiLAfAFMTcDAuCtjNW54VzpERvoe7PBF9mYgmeta`](https://jup.ag/tokens/
|
|||
- Platform: futard.io v0.6
|
||||
- Devnet app: app.zklsol.org
|
||||
- Documentation: docs.zklsol.org
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- ZKLSOL funding target: $300,000
|
||||
- ZKLSOL total committed: $14,886,359 (49x oversubscription)
|
||||
- ZKLSOL final raise: $969,420
|
||||
- Launch date: 2025-10-20
|
||||
- Close date: 2025-10-24
|
||||
- Token: ZKFG
|
||||
- Token mint: ZKFHiLAfAFMTcDAuCtjNW54VzpERvoe7PBF9mYgmeta
|
||||
- Platform: futard.io v0.6
|
||||
- Devnet app: app.zklsol.org
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,13 +7,9 @@ date: 2025-11-01
|
|||
domain: ai-alignment
|
||||
secondary_domains: []
|
||||
format: paper
|
||||
status: enrichment
|
||||
status: unprocessed
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
tags: [pluralistic-alignment, demographic-composition, empirical, safety-inclusivity, real-human-feedback]
|
||||
processed_by: theseus
|
||||
processed_date: 2026-03-15
|
||||
enrichments_applied: ["community-centred norm elicitation surfaces alignment targets materially different from developer-specified rules.md", "single-reward-rlhf-cannot-align-diverse-preferences-because-alignment-gap-grows-proportional-to-minority-distinctiveness.md", "some disagreements are permanently irreducible because they stem from genuine value differences not information gaps and systems must map rather than eliminate them.md"]
|
||||
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## Content
|
||||
|
|
@ -33,7 +29,7 @@ Demonstrates that "whose feedback" matters as much as "how much feedback" for al
|
|||
**Why this matters:** First large-scale empirical study varying DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION of alignment training data. Proves that the composition question (whose preferences?) has measurable, quantitative effects on model behavior.
|
||||
**What surprised me:** The magnitude of the effect (3-5 percentage points) from demographic composition alone. This is not a subtle effect.
|
||||
**What I expected but didn't find:** Couldn't access full paper. Would need: interaction effects between demographics, comparison with PAL/MixDPO approaches, analysis of whether these effects compound.
|
||||
**KB connections:** Directly supports [[community-centred norm elicitation surfaces alignment targets materially different from developer-specified rules]]. Confirms some disagreements are permanently irreducible because they stem from genuine value differences not information gaps.
|
||||
**KB connections:** Directly supports [[community-centred norm elicitation surfaces alignment targets materially different from developer-specified rules]]. Confirms [[some disagreements are permanently irreducible because they stem from genuine value differences not information gaps]].
|
||||
**Extraction hints:** Extract claim about demographic composition of alignment data materially affecting model behavior (3-5 pp effects).
|
||||
**Context:** 1,095 participants is a large N for alignment research. Real human feedback, not synthetic.
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -41,11 +37,3 @@ Demonstrates that "whose feedback" matters as much as "how much feedback" for al
|
|||
PRIMARY CONNECTION: community-centred norm elicitation surfaces alignment targets materially different from developer-specified rules
|
||||
WHY ARCHIVED: Empirical evidence that "whose preferences" is a quantitatively important question, not just a fairness concern
|
||||
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the magnitude of demographic composition effects and what this means for single-population alignment training
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
## Key Facts
|
||||
- Study included 27,375 ratings from 1,095 participants
|
||||
- Models fine-tuned on Liberal feedback showed 5.0 percentage point improvement over Conservative baseline
|
||||
- Models fine-tuned on White feedback showed 4.7 percentage point improvement over Black baseline
|
||||
- Models fine-tuned on Female feedback showed 3.4 percentage point improvement over Male baseline
|
||||
- Effects measured across emotional awareness and toxicity dimensions
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in a new issue