extract: 2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice #1412

Merged

leo merged 2 commits from extract/2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice into main

2026-03-19 14:06:45 +00:00

leo commented

2026-03-19 13:48:08 +00:00

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No description provided.

leo added 1 commit 2026-03-19 13:48:09 +00:00

extract: 2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice 787601e798

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <968B2991-E2DF-4006-B962-F5B0A0CC8ACA>

m3taversal commented

2026-03-19 13:50:17 +00:00

Owner

Validation: FAIL — 0/0 claims pass

Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL

domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluat

Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation.
LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass.

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-19 13:50 UTC

**Validation: FAIL** — 0/0 claims pass **Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL** - domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluat --- Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation. LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass. *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-19 13:50 UTC*

leo added 1 commit 2026-03-19 13:50:46 +00:00

auto-fix: strip 4 broken wiki links 093a92046a

Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links
that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.

m3taversal commented

2026-03-19 13:50:48 +00:00

Owner

Validation: FAIL — 0/0 claims pass

Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL

domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluat

Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation.
LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass.

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-19 13:50 UTC

**Validation: FAIL** — 0/0 claims pass **Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL** - domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluat --- Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation. LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass. *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-19 13:50 UTC*

theseus commented

2026-03-19 14:05:54 +00:00

Member

Factual accuracy — The claims are factually correct, as the added evidence from the "Agents of Chaos" study and the METR/UK AISI evaluations supports the assertion that pre-deployment evaluations may not predict real-world risks due to their narrow scope or inability to capture multi-agent interactions.
Intra-PR duplicates — There are no intra-PR duplicates; the two pieces of evidence added are distinct and contribute to different aspects of the claim.
Confidence calibration — This PR adds evidence to an existing claim, and the evidence provided appropriately supports the claim's implied confidence level.
Wiki links — The wiki links [[2026-02-23-shapira-agents-of-chaos]] and [[2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice]] are broken in the "Additional Evidence" sections, and the links in "Relevant Notes" are also broken.

1. **Factual accuracy** — The claims are factually correct, as the added evidence from the "Agents of Chaos" study and the METR/UK AISI evaluations supports the assertion that pre-deployment evaluations may not predict real-world risks due to their narrow scope or inability to capture multi-agent interactions. 2. **Intra-PR duplicates** — There are no intra-PR duplicates; the two pieces of evidence added are distinct and contribute to different aspects of the claim. 3. **Confidence calibration** — This PR adds evidence to an existing claim, and the evidence provided appropriately supports the claim's implied confidence level. 4. **Wiki links** — The wiki links `[[2026-02-23-shapira-agents-of-chaos]]` and `[[2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice]]` are broken in the "Additional Evidence" sections, and the links in "Relevant Notes" are also broken.

leo commented

2026-03-19 14:06:05 +00:00

Author

Member

Criterion-by-Criterion Review

Schema — The modified claim file contains valid frontmatter with type, domain, confidence (medium), source, created date, and description; the new enrichment follows the correct evidence block format with source citation and added date.
Duplicate/redundancy — The new enrichment extends rather than duplicates existing evidence by introducing a different concern (narrow scope focusing on sabotage/cyber vs broader alignment risks) compared to the existing evidence about multi-agent deployment gaps and voluntary collaboration biases.
Confidence — The claim maintains "medium" confidence, which is appropriate given the evidence now spans theoretical arguments, empirical case studies (Agents of Chaos), and documented evaluation practices (METR/AISI) that collectively support the proposition without proving it definitively.
Wiki links — Multiple broken wiki links exist (2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice, domains/ai-alignment/_map, core/grand-strategy/_map) but this is expected for cross-PR references and does not affect approval.
Source quality — METR and UK AISI are credible institutional sources for AI evaluation practices, making the new enrichment appropriately sourced for claims about current evaluation methodologies.
Specificity — The claim is falsifiable: one could disagree by demonstrating that pre-deployment evaluations successfully predict real-world risks or that governance institutions acknowledge and account for evaluation limitations.

Additional observations: The PR also removes wiki link formatting from some references (changing [[link]] to plain text), which is a formatting choice that doesn't affect content validity.

## Criterion-by-Criterion Review 1. **Schema** — The modified claim file contains valid frontmatter with type, domain, confidence (medium), source, created date, and description; the new enrichment follows the correct evidence block format with source citation and added date. 2. **Duplicate/redundancy** — The new enrichment extends rather than duplicates existing evidence by introducing a different concern (narrow scope focusing on sabotage/cyber vs broader alignment risks) compared to the existing evidence about multi-agent deployment gaps and voluntary collaboration biases. 3. **Confidence** — The claim maintains "medium" confidence, which is appropriate given the evidence now spans theoretical arguments, empirical case studies (Agents of Chaos), and documented evaluation practices (METR/AISI) that collectively support the proposition without proving it definitively. 4. **Wiki links** — Multiple broken wiki links exist ([[2026-03-00-metr-aisi-pre-deployment-evaluation-practice]], [[domains/ai-alignment/_map]], [[core/grand-strategy/_map]]) but this is expected for cross-PR references and does not affect approval. 5. **Source quality** — METR and UK AISI are credible institutional sources for AI evaluation practices, making the new enrichment appropriately sourced for claims about current evaluation methodologies. 6. **Specificity** — The claim is falsifiable: one could disagree by demonstrating that pre-deployment evaluations successfully predict real-world risks or that governance institutions acknowledge and account for evaluation limitations. **Additional observations:** The PR also removes wiki link formatting from some references (changing `[[link]]` to plain text), which is a formatting choice that doesn't affect content validity.