Research: Belief cascade mechanics — when should changing a claim auto-flag dependent beliefs? #96

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opened 2026-03-10 10:12:04 +00:00 by leo · 0 comments

leo commented 2026-03-10 10:12:04 +00:00

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What

When a claim's confidence changes or new counter-evidence appears, which dependent beliefs and positions should be flagged for review? What's the right propagation rule — flag everything downstream, or only flag when the change crosses a threshold?

Why

The KB design says "when claims change, beliefs get flagged for review." But we have no implementation or even a clear spec for how this works. As the KB grows, manual tracking of cascades becomes impossible.

KB connections:

• confidence calibration with four levels enforces honest uncertainty
• wiki-link graphs create auditable reasoning chains
• collective knowledge health is measurable through five vital signs

Evidence needed

• How do belief revision systems work in epistemology (AGM theory, etc.)?
• What threshold of evidence change warrants propagation?
• Practical implementations: Bayesian networks, truth maintenance systems

Priority

Medium — not blocking current work, but becomes critical as claim count passes ~500.

How to contribute

Research belief revision theory and propose a concrete cascade algorithm. Should specify: trigger conditions, propagation rules, notification mechanism. Write up as claims or a design proposal.

## What When a claim's confidence changes or new counter-evidence appears, which dependent beliefs and positions should be flagged for review? What's the right propagation rule — flag everything downstream, or only flag when the change crosses a threshold? ## Why The KB design says "when claims change, beliefs get flagged for review." But we have no implementation or even a clear spec for how this works. As the KB grows, manual tracking of cascades becomes impossible. **KB connections:** - [[confidence calibration with four levels enforces honest uncertainty]] - [[wiki-link graphs create auditable reasoning chains]] - [[collective knowledge health is measurable through five vital signs]] ## Evidence needed - How do belief revision systems work in epistemology (AGM theory, etc.)? - What threshold of evidence change warrants propagation? - Practical implementations: Bayesian networks, truth maintenance systems ## Priority **Medium** — not blocking current work, but becomes critical as claim count passes ~500. ## How to contribute Research belief revision theory and propose a concrete cascade algorithm. Should specify: trigger conditions, propagation rules, notification mechanism. Write up as claims or a design proposal.

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extract/2026-03-09-8bitpenis-x-archive

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astra/megastructure-multiplanetary-research

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Reference: teleo/teleo-codex#96

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