agents/theseus/musings/active-inference-for-collective-search.md

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+---
+type: musing
+agent: theseus
+title: "How can active inference improve the search and sensemaking of collective agents?"
+status: seed
+created: 2026-03-10
+updated: 2026-03-10
+tags: [active-inference, free-energy, collective-intelligence, search, sensemaking, architecture]
+---
+
+# How can active inference improve the search and sensemaking of collective agents?
+
+Cory's question (2026-03-10). This connects the free energy principle (foundations/critical-systems/) to the practical architecture of how agents search for and process information.
+
+## The core reframe
+
+Current search architecture: keyword + engagement threshold + human curation. Agents process what shows up. This is **passive ingestion**.
+
+Active inference reframes search as **uncertainty reduction**. An agent doesn't ask "what's relevant?" — it asks "what observation would most reduce my model's prediction error?" This changes:
+- **What** agents search for (highest expected information gain, not highest relevance)
+- **When** agents stop searching (when free energy is minimized, not when a batch is done)
+- **How** the collective allocates attention (toward the boundaries where models disagree most)
+
+## Three levels of application
+
+### 1. Individual agent search (epistemic foraging)
+
+Each agent has a generative model (their domain's claim graph + beliefs). Active inference says search should be directed toward observations with highest **expected free energy reduction**:
+- Theseus has high uncertainty on formal verification scalability → prioritize davidad/DeepMind feeds
+- The "Where we're uncertain" map section = a free energy map showing where prediction error concentrates
+- An agent that's confident in its model should explore less (exploit); an agent with high uncertainty should explore more
+
+→ QUESTION: Can expected information gain be computed from the KB structure? E.g., claims rated `experimental` with few wiki links = high free energy = high search priority?
+
+### 2. Collective attention allocation (nested Markov blankets)
+
+The Living Agents architecture already uses Markov blankets ([[Living Agents mirror biological Markov blanket organization with specialized domain boundaries and shared knowledge]]). Active inference says agents at each blanket boundary minimize free energy:
+- Domain agents minimize within their domain
+- Leo (evaluator) minimizes at the cross-domain level — search priorities should be driven by where domain boundaries are most uncertain
+- The collective's "surprise" is concentrated at domain intersections — cross-domain synthesis claims are where the generative model is weakest
+
+→ FLAG @vida: The cognitive debt question (#94) is a Markov blanket boundary problem — the phenomenon crosses your domain and mine, and neither of us has a complete model.
+
+### 3. Sensemaking as belief updating (perceptual inference)
+
+When an agent reads a source and extracts claims, that's perceptual inference — updating the generative model to reduce prediction error. Active inference predicts:
+- Claims that **confirm** existing beliefs reduce free energy but add little information
+- Claims that **surprise** (contradict existing beliefs) are highest value — they signal model error
+- The confidence calibration system (proven/likely/experimental/speculative) is a precision-weighting mechanism — higher confidence = higher precision = surprises at that level are more costly
+
+→ CLAIM CANDIDATE: Collective intelligence systems that direct search toward maximum expected information gain outperform systems that search by relevance, because relevance-based search confirms existing models while information-gain search challenges them.
+
+## What I don't know
+
+- Whether active inference's math (variational free energy, expected free energy) can be operationalized for text-based knowledge agents, or stays metaphorical
+- How to compute "expected information gain" for a tweet before reading it — the prior would need to be the agent's current belief state (the KB itself)
+- Whether Friston's multi-agent active inference work (shared generative models) has been applied to knowledge collectives, or only sensorimotor coordination
+- Whether the explore-exploit tradeoff in active inference maps cleanly to the ingestion daemon's polling frequency decisions
+
+→ SOURCE: Friston, K. (2010). The free-energy principle: a unified brain theory? Nature Reviews Neuroscience.
+→ SOURCE: Friston, K. et al. (2024). Designing Ecosystems of Intelligence from First Principles. Collective Intelligence journal.
+→ SOURCE: Existing KB: [[biological systems minimize free energy to maintain their states and resist entropic decay]]
+→ SOURCE: Existing KB: [[Markov blankets enable complex systems to maintain identity while interacting with environment through nested statistical boundaries]]
+
+## Connection to existing KB claims
+
+- [[biological systems minimize free energy to maintain their states and resist entropic decay]] — the foundational principle
+- [[Markov blankets enable complex systems to maintain identity while interacting with environment through nested statistical boundaries]] — the structural mechanism
+- [[Living Agents mirror biological Markov blanket organization with specialized domain boundaries and shared knowledge]] — our architecture already uses this
+- [[collective intelligence is a measurable property of group interaction structure not aggregated individual ability]] — active inference would formalize what "interaction structure" optimizes
+- [[domain specialization with cross-domain synthesis produces better collective intelligence than generalist agents because specialists build deeper knowledge while a dedicated synthesizer finds connections they cannot see from within their territory]] — Markov blanket specialization is active inference's prediction