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extract: 2026-02-00-cftc-prediction-market-rulemaking #1084

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domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md
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@ -31,13 +31,13 @@ This was a play-money experiment, which is the primary confound. Real-money futa
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
*Source: 2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
ORE's HNT-ORE boost proposal demonstrates futarchy's strength in relative selection: the market validated HNT as the next liquidity pair to boost relative to other candidates (ISC already had a boost at equivalent multiplier), but the proposal does not require absolute prediction of HNT's future price or utility—only that HNT is a better strategic choice than alternatives. The proposal passed by market consensus on relative positioning (HNT as flagship DePIN project post-HIP-138), not by predicting absolute HNT performance metrics.
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
*Source: [[2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
*Source: 2024-11-25-futardio-proposal-launch-a-boost-for-hnt-ore | Added: 2026-03-16*
ORE's three-tier boost multiplier system (vanilla stake, critical pairs, extended pairs) demonstrates futarchy's strength at relative ranking. The proposal doesn't require markets to predict absolute HNT-ORE liquidity outcomes, only to rank this boost against alternatives. Future proposals apply to tiers as wholes, further simplifying the ordinal comparison task.