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extract: 2026-02-25-futardio-launch-rock-game #1096

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leo merged 33 commits from extract/2026-02-25-futardio-launch-rock-game into main 2026-03-16 13:34:27 +00:00
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domains/health/CMS 2027 chart review exclusion targets vertical integration profit arbitrage by removing upcoded diagnoses from MA risk scoring.md
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@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ This is a proxy inertia story. Since [[proxy inertia is the most reliable predic
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2026-02-23-cbo-medicare-trust-fund-2040-insolvency]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
*Source: 2026-02-23-cbo-medicare-trust-fund-2040-insolvency | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
(extend) The trust fund insolvency timeline creates intensifying pressure for MA payment reform through the 2030s. With exhaustion now projected for 2040 (12 years earlier than 2025 estimates), MA overpayments of $84B/year become increasingly unsustainable from a fiscal perspective. Reducing MA benchmarks could save $489B over the decade, significantly extending solvency. The chart review exclusion is one mechanism in a broader reform trajectory: either restructure MA payments or accept automatic 8-10% benefit cuts for all Medicare beneficiaries starting 2040. The political economy strongly favors MA reform over across-the-board cuts, meaning chart review exclusions will likely be part of a suite of MA payment reforms driven by fiscal necessity rather than ideological preference.

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domains/health/Devoted is the fastest-growing MA plan at 121 percent growth because purpose-built technology outperforms acquisition-based vertical integration during CMS tightening.md
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@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ Since [[proxy inertia is the most reliable predictor of incumbent failure becaus
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2025-07-24-kff-medicare-advantage-2025-enrollment-update]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
*Source: 2025-07-24-kff-medicare-advantage-2025-enrollment-update | Added: 2026-03-15*
Market concentration data shows UHG gained 505K members while Humana lost 297K in 2025, suggesting the oligopoly is consolidating further toward the largest player. This creates the competitive environment where purpose-built entrants like Devoted can differentiate through technology rather than scale.

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domains/health/medicare-fiscal-pressure-forces-ma-reform-by-2030s-through-arithmetic-not-ideology.md
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@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ The political economy strongly favors Option A. The fiscal pressure builds conti
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
*Source: [[2025-07-24-kff-medicare-advantage-2025-enrollment-update]] | Added: 2026-03-15*
*Source: 2025-07-24-kff-medicare-advantage-2025-enrollment-update | Added: 2026-03-15*
The spending gap grew from $18B (2015) to $84B (2025), a 4.7x increase while enrollment only doubled. At 64% penetration by 2034 (CBO projection) with 20% per-person premium, annual overpayment will exceed $150B. The arithmetic forces reform regardless of political preferences.