From 011912f78e360fa3f2aaa2f9030ad010c5c5bf1a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:32:16 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 01/13] extract: claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- ...claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.json | 34 +++++++++++++++++++ .../claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md | 16 ++++++++- 2 files changed, 49 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.json diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9a0f21dd --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.json @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "progressive-validation-through-community-building-reduces-development-risk-by-proving-audience-demand-before-production-investment.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "traditional-media-buyers-now-seek-content-with-pre-existing-community-engagement-data-as-risk-mitigation.md", + "issues": [ + "no_frontmatter" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 2, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 4, + "rejected": 2, + "fixes_applied": [ + "progressive-validation-through-community-building-reduces-development-risk-by-proving-audience-demand-before-production-investment.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "progressive-validation-through-community-building-reduces-development-risk-by-proving-audience-demand-before-production-investment.md:stripped_wiki_link:the-fanchise-engagement-ladder-from-content-to-co-ownership-", + "traditional-media-buyers-now-seek-content-with-pre-existing-community-engagement-data-as-risk-mitigation.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "traditional-media-buyers-now-seek-content-with-pre-existing-community-engagement-data-as-risk-mitigation.md:stripped_wiki_link:progressive-validation-through-community-building-reduces-de" + ], + "rejections": [ + "progressive-validation-through-community-building-reduces-development-risk-by-proving-audience-demand-before-production-investment.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "traditional-media-buyers-now-seek-content-with-pre-existing-community-engagement-data-as-risk-mitigation.md:no_frontmatter" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-19" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md b/inbox/queue/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md index 15434bec..ee3dfdca 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md +++ b/inbox/queue/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md @@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date_published: "2025-06-02" date_archived: "2025-06-02" archived_by: "clay" domain: "entertainment" -status: unprocessed +status: null-result claims_extracted: - "progressive validation through community building reduces development risk by proving audience demand before production investment" - "traditional media buyers now seek content with pre-existing community engagement data as risk mitigation" +processed_by: leo +processed_date: 2026-03-19 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator" --- # Mediawan Kids & Family to Turn Claynosaurz Into Animated Series @@ -75,3 +79,13 @@ across screens, shelves, and generations. We're all about changing the game and becoming a beacon for Web3. Mediawan understands how important this is to us, and the gamified content opportunities that we can explore. This is the next chapter—and it's a big one. + + +## Key Facts +- Claynosaurz has 450K+ social media following as of June 2025 +- Claynosaurz content has generated 500M+ short-form views +- Miraculous: Tales of Ladybug & Cat Noir generated $2B+ franchise revenue +- Miraculous has 35B+ YouTube views and 100M monthly active viewers +- Miraculous airs in 120+ countries and is translated into 50+ languages +- Mediawan Kids & Family has produced/distributed 2,500+ half-hours of content +- Claynosaurz is developing a mobile game with Gameloft -- 2.45.2 From 60a007a4c8d9841849c127f9cc2efe3204a8b35d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:43:55 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 02/13] pipeline: archive 1 source(s) post-merge Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md | 77 +++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 77 insertions(+) create mode 100644 inbox/archive/general/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md b/inbox/archive/general/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2dbdb167 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md @@ -0,0 +1,77 @@ +--- +source_type: "tweet" +title: "Mediawan Kids and Family to Turn Claynosaurz Into Animated Series" +author: "@cabanimation" +url: "" +date_published: "2025-06-02" +date_archived: "2025-06-02" +archived_by: "clay" +domain: "entertainment" +status: processed +claims_extracted: + - "progressive validation through community building reduces development risk by proving audience demand before production investment" + - "traditional media buyers now seek content with pre-existing community engagement data as risk mitigation" +--- +# Mediawan Kids & Family to Turn Claynosaurz Into Animated Series + +Written by @cabanimation + +June 2nd, 2025 + +Published on X: https://x.com/Cabanimation/status/1929604785117823282 + +Partnering with Mediawan Kids & Family (@Mediawan_kf) is one of the most important +steps we've taken in building Claynosaurz into a true global franchise. Here's why: +Mediawan isn't just an animation studio. They're franchise engineers. + +They've produced or distributed over 2,500 half-hours of kids and family content and built +IP that now rivals the likes of Nickelodeon and Disney globally. Their reach spans Netflix, +Disney+, YouTube, TF1, and other major platforms. Most importantly, they've proven they +know how to take a piece of original IP and scale it into a multi-billion-dollar brand. Need +proof? Look at Miraculous: Tales of Ladybug & Cat Noir. + +Developed by Mediawan's Method Animation and ZAG Heroez, Miraculous has become +one of the most successful kids' properties of the last decade: + +$2B+ franchise revenue + +35B+ YouTube views + +100M monthly active viewers + +Aired in over 120 countries, translated into 50+ languages + +Dominates licensing across fashion, toys, publishing, and more + +That's not just a hit—it's a blueprint. Now imagine what we can do with a brand like +Claynosaurz, which already has: + +A 450K+ social media following + +Over 500M short-form content views + +A passionate collector community + +Toyetic character design baked in from day one + +A mobile game launching with Gameloft + +# +An upcoming Achievement System that rewards fan contribution + +A content team from studios like Pixar, Disney, and DreamWorks + +This has been a long time coming. Claynosaurz was never about being “just an NFT +project." It's about telling stories, creating characters people care about, and inviting fans +into a world that's built to last. We're here to make this a franchise. One that pulls +collectors in. + +We had to find the right long-term creative ally-one that shares our vision, understands +how to scale original IP, and respects the way we've built this community. Mediawan gets +that. They're creator-first, globally connected, and looking to build the next generation of +breakout brands from the ground up. Together, we're building something that can live +across screens, shelves, and generations. + +We're all about changing the game and becoming a beacon for Web3. Mediawan +understands how important this is to us, and the gamified content opportunities that we +can explore. This is the next chapter—and it's a big one. -- 2.45.2 From 6b5c59d70872d10b30a8d87c126f1e6af6c21026 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:43:31 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 03/13] extract: shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.json | 35 +++++++++++++++++++ .../queue/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md | 19 +++++++++- 2 files changed, 53 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.json diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..eb04b37f --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.json @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "genai-adoption-in-entertainment-gated-by-consumer-acceptance-not-technology.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "genai-is-simultaneously-sustaining-and-disruptive-depending-on-progressive-syntheticization-vs-progressive-control.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 2, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 5, + "rejected": 2, + "fixes_applied": [ + "genai-adoption-in-entertainment-gated-by-consumer-acceptance-not-technology.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "genai-adoption-in-entertainment-gated-by-consumer-acceptance-not-technology.md:stripped_wiki_link:two-phase-disruption-where-distribution-moats-fall-first-and", + "genai-is-simultaneously-sustaining-and-disruptive-depending-on-progressive-syntheticization-vs-progressive-control.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "genai-is-simultaneously-sustaining-and-disruptive-depending-on-progressive-syntheticization-vs-progressive-control.md:stripped_wiki_link:good-management-causes-disruption-because-rational-resource-", + "genai-is-simultaneously-sustaining-and-disruptive-depending-on-progressive-syntheticization-vs-progressive-control.md:stripped_wiki_link:disruptors-redefine-quality-rather-than-competing-on-the-inc" + ], + "rejections": [ + "genai-adoption-in-entertainment-gated-by-consumer-acceptance-not-technology.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "genai-is-simultaneously-sustaining-and-disruptive-depending-on-progressive-syntheticization-vs-progressive-control.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-19" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md b/inbox/queue/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md index 7ceee540..d3b50ca0 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md +++ b/inbox/queue/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md @@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date_published: "2025-02-01" date_archived: "2025-04-23" archived_by: "clay" domain: "entertainment" -status: unprocessed +status: null-result claims_extracted: - "GenAI adoption in entertainment will be gated by consumer acceptance not technology capability" - "GenAI is simultaneously sustaining and disruptive depending on whether users pursue progressive syntheticization or progressive control" +processed_by: leo +processed_date: 2026-03-19 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator" --- # How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator @@ -851,3 +855,16 @@ The image is a thumbnail for a post titled "The Relentless, Inevitable March of 72 10 # 20/21 + + +## Key Facts +- Will Smith eating spaghetti AI video was created with Stable Diffusion in April 2023 +- Veo2 claims to enable up to 4K resolution and clips as long as 1 minute +- HarrisX/Variety survey (May 2024, N=1,001 U.S. Adults) found 54% of consumers indifferent or more interested in GenAI-written content +- YouTube's share of TV viewing was 11% at time of writing, projected to surpass 20% by 2030 in one scenario +- Average streaming services per home was 4 at time of writing +- Hollywood produced approximately 15,000 hours of film and TV in 2024 +- YouTube had approximately 300,000,000 hours of creator content uploaded in 2024 +- Hailuo introduced T2V-01-Director Model with sophisticated camera controls +- Runway offers Lip Sync tool for audio-visual synchronization +- Live Portrait is an open-source tool for syncing facial movements between videos -- 2.45.2 From d90aa0cdb4353d13917c334c2056e58d71e87efd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:44:36 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 04/13] pipeline: archive 1 source(s) post-merge Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md | 853 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 853 insertions(+) create mode 100644 inbox/archive/general/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3dd46215 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md @@ -0,0 +1,853 @@ +--- +source_type: "article" +title: "How Far Will AI Video Go?" +author: "Doug Shapiro" +url: "https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/how-far-will-ai-video-go" +date_published: "2025-02-01" +date_archived: "2025-04-23" +archived_by: "clay" +domain: "entertainment" +status: processed +claims_extracted: + - "GenAI adoption in entertainment will be gated by consumer acceptance not technology capability" + - "GenAI is simultaneously sustaining and disruptive depending on whether users pursue progressive syntheticization or progressive control" +--- +# How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +archive.today Saved from https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/how-far-will-ai-video-go +search +no other snapshots from this url +23 Apr 2025 17:51:06 UTC +webpage capture +All snapshots from host dougshapiro.substack.com +Webpage +Screenshot +https://archive.ph/spTgJ + +## How Far Will Al Video Go? +Mapping Out the Scenarios + +DOUG SHAPIRO +FEB 14, 2025 + +47 +7 +9 +share + +_Image: A person stands at a crossroads, symbolizing decision-making and future paths. The person is facing away from the viewer, contemplating the different directions._ + +Source: Midjourney. + +I often write that the last 10-15 years in video 1 have been defined by the disruption of +content distribution and the next 10 years are poised to be defined by the disruption of +content creation. + +Here's the argument: The internet unbundled information from infrastructure and, +with the help of a host of related technologies and massive infrastructure investment, +caused the cost to move bits around to functionally head toward zero. We know what + +## 1/21 + +happened next. 2 Now, there is another emerging general purpose technology, GenAI, +that may send the cost to make bits to head toward zero, too. + +This symmetry of falling costs to move bits and make bits sounds good. It's pithy and +memorable. It seems plausible. But still: it is admittedly very high level and hand wavy. + +What will GenAI really mean in practice for the video business? Will the cost to make +TV and movies truly “fall to zero?” Will two kids in a dorm room one day make the +“next Avatar?” Or, is GenAI another flavor of Silicon Valley's naïve technological +determinism, a blind belief that technology always marches forward and anything +that's technically possible is inevitable, without regard to pesky inconveniences like +law, regulations, ethics and consumer demand? And what does disruption mean, +anyway? Are we talking about complete devastation, the Kodak-disrupted-by-digital- +cameras kind of disruption, or the far more benign Marriot-disrupted-by-Airbnb kind +of disruption? + +Figure 1. Two "Victims” of Disruption + +_Image: A graph showing the stock performance of Kodak (EK) over time, illustrating a significant decline. The graph spans from 1998 to 2011, showing a steep drop in Kodak's stock value._ + +_Image: A graph showing the stock performance of Marriott (MAR) over time, illustrating a significant increase. The graph spans from 2000 to 2020, showing a steady rise in Marriott's stock value._ + +The only credible answer to these questions is: no one knows. That doesn't mean we're +completely flying blind though. We can frame out a range of possible outcomes by +using scenarios. + +Tl;dr: + +* Scenario planning is a useful tool for navigating uncertainty. It can help identify + the range of possible outcomes, the key milestones to watch, and the potential + implications. +* A key step is identifying the two critical variables that will determine possible + future states and the extreme potential outcomes for each. Below, I use technology + development and consumer acceptance to construct a scenario matrix and analyze + the possible state and implications of AI video in 2030. +* The possible outcomes for technology development range, at one extreme, from + Al video models stalling out at their current capabilities to, at the other, + completely resolving their current limitations in realism (especially the "uncanny + valley"), audio-visual sync (especially lips), understanding real-world physics, and + fine-grained creative control. +* The possible outcomes for consumer acceptance range from skepticism and + sometimes outright hostility to fully embracing AI (and actually preferring it for + some use cases). Steps along the way include consumers accepting it for certain + content genres and use cases, especially those that don't rely on emotive humans. + +## 2/21 + +* Varying each of these variables between their extremes produces a 2 x 2 with four + scenarios: low tech development, low consumer acceptance ("Novelty and Niche"); + high tech development, low consumer acceptance (“The Wary Consumer"); low + tech development, high consumer acceptance ("Stuck in the Valley"); and high + tech development, high consumer acceptance ("Hollywood Horror Show”). +* Writing out narratives for each scenario is the most instructive part, because it + helps make the abstract more concrete. +* Reality will probably fall somewhere in between, but this shows why it won't + require the most radical scenarios for the video business to change radically. + +Thanks for reading The Mediator! Subscribe for +free to receive new posts and support my work. + +### How Scenarios Work + +One of the most useful tools for operating in an uncertain environment is a scenario +planning matrix. This entails identifying the two most important variables, +determining the polar extreme outcomes for these variables over a given time period, +and constructing a 2 x 2 matrix that produces four potential future state scenarios. The +most instructive part is writing a narrative describing each of these scenarios. Think +of these narratives like news articles from alternate futures, explaining how we got to +that (possible) future state. + +The scenarios are extreme, so reality will probably fall somewhere between them. But +the exercise helps define the bounds of what will probably unfold; the signposts that +would indicate we are heading in one direction or another; and the potential +implications of different outcomes. It also helps make abstract problems feel a bit +more concrete, especially when the scenarios are specific. + +### A Brief Digression: What I Mean by “GenAl Video" + +Before getting into the scenarios, it would probably be a good idea to explain what I +mean by “GenAI video” (or “AI video,” which I use interchangeably). I am referring to +Al video tools that augment and streamline human creativity, NOT fully- +autonomous AI-generated video. + +Sometimes, “AI video” is considered synonymous with “zero-shot AI video," namely +that you put in a prompt and a fully-realized movie comes out. Other times, it even +means "fully autonomous storytelling,” where an Al writes, directs and produces film +completely independently. I think both are unlikely to produce anything watchable +anytime soon, if ever. But more to the point, this capability depends more on the +evolution of LLMs and multimodal AI than on Al video models. + +By "AI video,” I mean tools that augment, enhance and streamline human creativity, not + +## 3/21 + +replace it. + +Throughout this analysis, I assume that GenAI video will require significant human +oversight and judgment for the foreseeable future. So, I am referring to tools, like AI +video models (and AI audio models, workflow tools, etc.), that empower people to +make high-quality video faster and cheaper. This might involve delegating some +creative decisions to AI, but by no means all or even most of them. + +With that out of the way, let's get to the scenarios. + +### Identifying the Two Key Variables + +There are a lot of unknowns about how GenAI video will evolve. Here's a partial list: + +* How will regulators, the courts or the market resolve issues around copyright + infringement and IP rights? Will regulators or consumers require Al content + labeling? +* Will there emerge even more performant architectures, beyond transformers and + diffusion models? +* Is there room for so many competing proprietary GenAI models (Sora, Veo, Kling, + Minimax, Runway, Pika, Krea, Luma, etc.)? Will they carve out niches, in which + some are better for certain applications? How big is the TAM? Will they solely + appeal to enterprise and prosumer or are they mass consumer products? What is + the competitive advantage in these models? Data? Compute? Architecture? Will + proprietary or open-source models prevail? +* What is the true cost of operating these models? Will they need to be run in + expensive data centers or will local devices suffice? +* How much will GenAI really reduce costs for traditional video production + workflows? Will it replace jobs? Which ones? +* Will consumers accept GenAI and for which use cases? For which content genres? +* Will GenAI ever cross the “uncanny valley” and produce synthetic people that are + indistinguishable from live footage? +* Will Hollywood studios adopt it? Creatives? Creators? Will an AI-enabled film + ever win critical praise or even an industry award? +* How will fine-grained control evolve? Will models eventually replicate (or surpass) + anything that can be done with a camera and professional lighting? Or will using + AI always necessitate a tradeoff with creative control? +* Will "world models" enable GenAI to simulate complex real-world physics? + +And you could tack on another question at the end of each of these: + +* If so, when? + +That's a lot of things we don't know. For our exercise, we need to distill them into two +critical variables and determine the range of potential outcomes for each. (In our case, +our time frame is in 2030, out five years.) + +## 4/21 + +Looking at this list, we can group most of these unknowns into four categories: +technology development, consumer acceptance, legal/regulatory and +economics/business models. The latter two are clearly important. Hollywood won't +adopt GenAl without legal clarity. Economics will determine the size and distribution +of profit pools. + +But since we can only choose two, let's go with what I think are the biggest unknowns: +technology development and consumer adoption. + +### Technology Development + +Al video models have improved tremendously in the last two years. Below is the iconic +and disturbing Will Smith-eating-spaghetti video, made with Stable Diffusion in April +2023. Compare it to the Veo2 compilation demo from Google or a recent video made +using Sora by Chad Nelson from OpenAI. + +Al Will Smith eating spaghetti pasta (Al footage and audio) +Copy link + +_Image: A screenshot of a YouTube video titled "Al Will Smith eating spaghetti pasta (Al footage and audio)". The video shows a digitally created or altered image of Will Smith eating spaghetti._ + +[Watch on ►►YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/) + +Veo 2 compilation +Copy link + +_Image: A screenshot of a YouTube video titled "Veo 2 compilation". The video shows a compilation of scenes generated by Google's Veo 2 AI model._ + +[Watch on](https://www.youtube.com/) + +## 5/21 + + +# How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +We couldn't verify the security of your connection. +Access to this content has been restricted. Contact your internet service provider for help. + +This pace of improvement in less than two years is startling. But they aren't perfect yet. + +Al video models don't pass the “video Turing Test," at least not yet. + +In 1950, Alan Turing introduced the so-called Turing Test (originally called "the imitation game”), meant to test whether a machine could fool a human into believing it is communicating with another human. Turing didn't conceive of different tests for different modalities, but let's propose a "video Turing test,” to test whether a human would believe Al video was generated or live action. Al video models don't currently pass the video Turing Test. + +There are a few areas they can still improve: + +* Realism (especially the “uncanny valley"). If you look again at the Veo2 demo, it's hard to tell that both of the women (the DJ and the doctor) aren't real. We're getting very close to passing the so-called “uncanny valley,” but it's a high bar. Humans are highly sensitized to the most subtle changes in human faces even before we can speak (think of an infant staring at her mother's face). Note that the Veo and Sora demos feature relatively quick cuts, so the people don't convey much change in emotion. +* Audio-visual sync. Also notice that no one is talking in either demo. Runway now offers Lip Sync and the open-source tool Live Portrait makes it possible to sync facial movements between a reference video and a generated video, including lip sync. However, in both cases it is clearly noticeable. It isn't there yet. +* Resolution and clip length. These are almost solved. Veo2 is in closed beta, but it claims to enable up to 4K resolution and clips as long as 1 minute. There has also been rapid development in upscaling technologies that can increase resolution (such as from Topaz and Nvidia). 4K is suitable for all but the largest format screens, like Imax, or very VFX-heavy films. And most shots in TV shows and films are just a few seconds, other than an occasional long take, so 1 minute is more than enough. +* Physics/temporal coherence. Despite the impressive realism in the demos above, these models still struggle with complex dynamics, especially involving multiple objects or actors. They have been trained on video, which is an abstraction of the real world, so they do not yet understand the real world. Despite occasional breathless claims to the contrary, they don't contain sophisticated “world models" or physics engines. (There are early efforts underway to fix that, such as Runway's research on general world models or World Labs, co-founded by Fei Fei Li.) My "model buster” prompt is “A man in a smoky pool hall, breaking a rack of balls." No model has figured it out yet. +* Fine-grained control. Initially, GenAI video models were like slot machines-you put in a prompt and held your breath. Over time, they have been progressively adding finer-grained control (something I discussed in detail in Is GenAI a Sustaining or Disruptive Innovation in Hollywood?). Last week, Hailuo, creator of Minimax, introduced the T2V-01-Director Model, which enables more sophisticated camera controls, as shown in the embedded video below. At around the 0:30 mark, see how the shot faithfully follows the complex set of instructions "first, truck left, tracking shot, then pull out, and end on a vehicle POV.” Models are learning better controls through a combination of pre-labeling video clips (e.g., including metadata about the camera motion, like “shake camera slightly”, “tilt up," "truck left," in the training data) and “manipulation in the latent space." The latter means that the model learns which parameters correspond to different visual outcomes, so that it is possible to influence the generation process during inference. In theory, with enough training data and metadata, it will be possible to offer ever-finer grained control. + +[Hailuo Al | T2V-01-Director Model: Control Your Camera Like a Pro!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09r65-f9184) + +Recall that our goal is to identify the continuum of possibilities for how GenAI technology will develop by 2030. At one extreme is the current state, which assumes that the technology won't improve from here. The other extreme is the idealized future state for each of the features described above, meaning that each of these limitations is eventually solved. This continuum is shown in Figure 2. + +Figure 2. The Continuum of Potential Technology Development + +## 8/21 + +Current State +Idealized Future State + +Realism/Temporal Consistency +Imperfect but improving dramatically. Still some shifting details from frame-to-frame. Especially challenging with humans. Struggles with human emotion, even with face mapping tools like Live Portrait. +Object and character consistency. Surpasses the "uncanny valley," indistinguishable from live action. + +Audio-visual sync +Rudimentary and noticeable, especially lip sync. +Seamless. + +Resolution +State-of-the-art is 4K. +4K or 8K. + +Physics/Temporal Coherence +Some motion still janky. Unable to handle complex dynamics, especially interaction between multiple objects or actors. Occasional challenges with temporal coherence among objects, lighting, etc. +True "world models" with an understanding of physics. + +Fine-grained control +Directorial controls improving, but still requires tradeoffs with consumer adoption +Replicates anything that can be done with a camera and lighting equipment. + +Technology Development + +There has been some backlash to the use of AI, especially when not disclosed beforehand, such as Disney's use of AI to generate the opening credits of Secret Invasion; the use of AI for a few still images in Late Night with the Devil; or, most recently, the use of AI for voice enhancement in The Brutalist and Emilia Perez. However, it isn't that simple. The issue here seems to be whether or not filmmakers were upfront about it; no one seemed to care when AI was used for de-aging in The Irishman, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny or Here. Also, it isn't clear that the public cares as much as the industry. + +A recent survey from HarrisX and Variety VIP+ found that consumers' willingness to engage with AI-enabled content varies (Figure 3). As shown, when asked about their interest in watching a movie or TV show written using GenAI, 10% said they didn't have an opinion, and, of the remaining 90%, 54% were indifferent or more interested in GenAI content. Plus, receptivity seems correlated with familiarity. Variety noted that those who “report regularly using gen AI tools are also more likely to feel positively toward the use of AI-generated material in varied types of media content, according to recent FTI Delta survey data shared with VIP+.” + +Figure 3. Consumer Receptivity to AI-Generated Content Varies + +The image is a table showing consumer receptivity to AI-generated content. The table has four columns: "More interested", "Less interested", "No difference", and "Don't know". The rows represent different types of content, such as playing a video game, watching a movie/TV show, engaging with images or videos on social media, reading the news, listening to music, and listening to a podcast or audiobook. The percentages in each cell indicate the proportion of respondents who expressed that level of interest in the respective content type. + +## 9/21 + +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator +Source: HarrisX, Variety VIP+, May 2024, N=1,001 U.S. Adults + +For our purposes, it is possible to imagine a continuum of consumer acceptance that looks like Figure 4. + +This continuum progresses from the current high-degree of skepticism and sometimes hostility; to acceptance in low-stakes, low-expectation content, like social video, memes, etc.; to progressively accepting AI in different genres, depending on that genre's reliance on emotive human faces, starting with ads and animation, then music videos, educational, historic re-enactment/true crime/docudrama, then maybe sci-fi and horror (especially in which humans are heavily doctored), and, the final frontier would be comedies and dramas that require subtle timing, nuanced performances and a wide emotional range; and the most extreme outcome would be that consumers come to prefer Al-generated content for certain use cases, especially those that GenAI is uniquely suited to do, like personalized, interactive and emergent stories. + +Figure 4. The Continuum of Potential Consumer Acceptance + +The image is a diagram illustrating the continuum of potential consumer acceptance of AI-generated content. The diagram is structured as an arrow moving from left to right, representing increasing acceptance. The stages along the continuum are: Skepticism, Acceptance, and Preference. Each stage is associated with specific content genres. Skepticism is linked to a general skepticism towards AI-generated content. Acceptance is associated with low-expectation content like social media and memes, as well as ads, animation, and music videos. The final stage, Preference, is linked to consumers preferring AI-generated content for specific use cases like interactive, personalized, or emergent stories. + +The Scenarios + +Having defined our ranges for the two key variables, the next step is to construct the potential future states in 2030. For now, let's not judge the likelihood of each. We'll get to that in a moment. + +Figure 5. The Four Scenarios + +## 10/21 + +The image is a 2x2 matrix representing four potential scenarios for the future of AI video, based on two axes: "Acceptance" and "Technology Development". The four scenarios are: "Stuck in the Valley" (high acceptance, low technology development), "Hollywood Horror Show" (high acceptance, high technology development), "Novelty and Niche" (low acceptance, low technology development), and "The Wary Consumer" (low acceptance, high technology development). + +Below, I write out a narrative for each. + +"Novelty and Niche” (low tech development, low consumer acceptance) + +This is more or less the status quo. The technology doesn't evolve a lot from here and consumers view AI video as a novelty good for a limited range of use cases, like memes, social video, simple animation and maybe music videos. + +The tech stalls out and consumers aren't interested anyway. + +In Hollywood, by 2030 AI still isn't used much in final frame, other than for some environments, establishing shots and digital re-shoots. It is mostly used in pre- production-for previsualization, script writing assistance, script coverage, and concept art-and in post production-like localization services in smaller markets, some VFX automation, first pass edit, de-aging and voice synthesis. Studios have used these technologies to marginally reduce production costs, say 15-25%. + +Al is regarded largely as a novelty and a sustaining innovation, but hasn't changed the business much. Current trends (cord cutting, growth in streaming, shift of time and attention to creator content, etc.) have continued at a steady, linear pace. + +"The Wary Consumer" (high tech development, low consumer acceptance) + +Here, AI can produce visuals that are nearly indistinguishable from live action and has leapt over the uncanny valley. Blockbuster-quality films could theoretically be made entirely synthetically, using synthetic actors and sets. But consumers aren't having it. + +Unions and regulators have pushed for strict controls and disclosure of any Al usage. Consumers view AI as fake, cheap, and ethically dubious. Again, it is considered + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM + +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +suitable only for a narrow range of use cases, this time constrained by public opinion, +not technology. It is used in the same kinds of applications as in the “Novelty and +Niche" scenario: memes, social video, music videos, perhaps some educational or +factual content where there is no perceived need for human authorship or authenticity. +Even animated programming that uses AI is considered creepy and parents shun it. + +AI can create high fidelity visuals that are indistinguishable from live action, but the public +won't have it. + +Hollywood could do more, but is constrained by public pressure and the stance of +talent. In the production process, AI is again relegated to behind-the-scenes, mostly +pre- and post-production. For well-known creatives, the prospect of making projects +at a fraction of the cost of traditional production and ending their reliance on big +studios is appealing. But they steer clear of AI, fearful of both public backlash and +being ostracized by the rest of the creative community. Emerging creators try to +leverage Al to break into the industry, but most of the public rejects these efforts. + +The current dynamics in media continue, including consumers continuing to shift +their time and attention to creator media. But they still spend a lot of time and money +on the biggest blockbusters and premium TV shows. Hollywood retains its lock on +high-production value content and the relatively small oligopoly among the biggest +media conglomerates and a few big tech companies stays intact, other than perhaps +some consolidation here and there. + +## "Stuck in the Valley” (low tech development, high +consumer acceptance) + +In this scenario, consumers embrace AI, but the technology doesn't keep pace. + +Consumers think GenAI is cool, especially some of its unique attributes, like being +able to generate personalized, interactive and emergent stories in real time. They also +like using GenAl for fan creation, making memes, parodies and fan films about their +favorite IP. + +Consumers want it, but the technology can't deliver. + +The technology hasn't improved much from the current state, never achieving realistic +humans and still struggling with complex physics. However, GenAI is used extensively +in advertising, animated content, DIY/educational, historical/docudrama/true crime +and even some sci-fi, fantasy and horror movies and shows. + +Creators also work within its constraints to create a tsunami of new content, most +unwatchable, but some intriguing and some compelling. To cite a statistic I use all the +time: by my estimate, Hollywood put out about 15,000 hours of film and TV shows in +2024 (a generous estimate, by the way) vs. about the 300,000,000 hours of creator +content uploaded to YouTube. At the same time, consumers' definition of quality. + +https://archive.ph/spTgJ + +11/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM + +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +continues to shift away from high production values. By 2030, very little of this new +content is considered good, but only an tiny proportion needs to be competitive with +Hollywood to upend the supply/demand balance. Keep in mind that 0.01% (1/100 of a +percent) of 300,000,000 hours is 30,000 hours-twice what Hollywood produces per +year. + +By 2030, YouTube's share of TV viewing surpasses 20%, up from 11% today. Consumers +have enough "good enough” content available for free on YouTube and other online +platforms that in recent years they have started to cancel streaming services; by the +end of this decade, the average number of streaming services per streaming home has +slipped, falling from 4 to 3. The have/have not divide in Hollywood widens, as subscale +monoline video companies are consolidated into larger multi-line business as it +becomes clearer that corporate video is no longer a profit center for most. + +## "Hollywood Horror Show” (high tech development, high +consumer acceptance) + +In this scenario, both technological development and consumer acceptance continue +to increase. GenAI video is virtually indistinguishable from anything shot with a +camera. Consumers aren't phased by dramas starring synthetic people and are +embracing some of the unique capabilities of GenAI video described before. + +The cost to produce video converges with the cost of compute; the below-the-line cost +(i.e., non-talent production costs) of a blockbuster-quality film falls from $1-2 million +per minute today to $10-20 per minute. There is a near infinite supply of high +production value content. Just as there are one-author books and one-artist albums, we +have one-artist feature length movies and shows. There are virtually no barriers to +high-quality content creation-competition comes from everywhere, including the +near infinite pool of independent creators, and is global. Demand for U.S. content falls +internationally as the production values and volume of local content increases. + +Infinite content meets finite demand, completely altering the economics of video creation. + +Content and culture atomize further along a continuum of experiences, reflecting the +tension between the need for individual and shared experiences. These range from +personalized content to micro-communities, subcultures, sub-mass and mass cultural +experiences, but the last category are few and far between. + +Infinite supply meets finite demand. The economic model of content creation shifts +radically, as video becomes a loss leader to drive value elsewhere—whether data +capture, hardware purchases, live events, merchandise, fan creation or who knows +what else. The value of curation, distribution chokepoints, brands, recognizable IP, +community building, 360-degree monetization, marketing muscle and know-how all go +up. + +Hollywood looks nothing like it does today. + +## Placing Some Bets + +https://archive.ph/spTgJ + +12/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM + +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +These scenarios range from incremental change to radical transformation. Before, I +wrote that we should hold off judging their likelihood. Let's now turn to that. + +The most conservative scenario, namely that the current state persists, seems highly +unlikely. The question is where we settle out among the others. + +## Technology Will Surely Advance, But How Much? + +The concept that GenAI technology will stall out here defies all logic and recent +experience-especially in light of the amazing advances in just the past two years, the +resources being thrown at it, and the practice in the Al community of sharing many +breakthroughs. + +So, we know it will keep getting better, but how much and how fast? I'm not sure +anyone knows and I certainly don't. Here are a few things we do know: + +## Training Data Will Likely Grow + +Unlike LLMs, which have apparently scraped nearly all the text on the internet, a lot of +video footage is still inaccessible to AI video models. With more data, they will get +better. + +So far, Hollywood studios have been reluctant to license their libraries for training. +However, the models need a large volume of hours more than they need specific +libraries or IP. My guess is that owners of smaller libraries, who are less worried about +the blowback from talent, public relations or (perhaps) the long-term strategic +implications, will be more willing to license training rights. If large studios see that +the window is closing to license their rights, some may follow suit. This could prove +enough. + +## Fine-Grained Control Will Improve + +There is a lot of effort underway here currently. These include fine-tuning models to +enable very specific camera controls (using more efficient, LoRA-based approaches), +more research into manipulating parameters in the inference process and creating +larger labeled datasets in pre-training. + +## Al Will Probably Achieve a Better Understanding of Physics, Not Only +for Video + +Most GenAl models are trained on abstractions of reality, as I alluded to above. LLMs +are trained on text (which is an abstraction of an abstraction; it is an abstraction of +language, which is an abstraction of thought); video models are trained on pixels; +audio models are trained on digitally-sampled notes, etc. They are not trained on the +real world. + +The next frontier of AI will require a better understanding of real-world physics and video +models would benefit. + +As also mentioned above, there are currently efforts underway to address this +deficiency by creating "world models,” some of which rely on some sort of physical + +https://archive.ph/spTgJ + +13/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM + +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +embodiment. These kinds of models are needed for more than just more lifelike video. +The next frontier in Al is real-world applications: autonomous vehicles and robots. For +these to succeed, it will be necessary for AI to develop a better understanding of the +physical world, including all its many edge cases. So, these efforts are pursuing a much +bigger prize than the payoff of achieving temporal coherence in a video model, but +video models should be among the beneficiaries. + +## Brains Want to Interpolate + +The bar for realistic video may be lower than commonly believed. + +Human brains are very good at interpolating. Vision in particular is heavily +constructed, not just perceived. Many studies (like this one) have shown that most of +the input to the visual cortex comes from our own internal models of the world, not +sensory input from our eyes. (We also have a blind spot where our optic nerves connect +to our retinas, but we don't see it because our brain fills in the gap.) We actively seek to +create cohesive images from limited information. That's why minimalist and abstract +art can be highly evocative even with a few brushstrokes or lines. + +AI models don't need to be perfect. + +The implication is that AI video models don't need to have perfect, frame-by-frame +photorealism. They only to need to provide the right cues for the brain to fill in the +rest. Where they currently fall short is when those cues are confusing or discordant. + +## There is No Technical Reason the Uncanny Valley Can't be Vaulted + +While our biology is cooperative in some areas, in others it is not. As mentioned +before, the uncanny valley is a very high bar, because we're so attuned to nuanced +facial expressions. Nevertheless, there is no technical reason AI can't overcome this +challenge. + +Following on the prior points, all video is an abstraction of reality. It comprises frames +moving past at the rate of 24 or 30 per second. These frames comprise pixels. And +what are pixels? They are just a color value that is captured by a lens, converted to +numbers, converted to bits, and then converted back to a color value. 3 + +So, when you watch iShowSpeed or Stranger Things or Downton Abbey or The +Kardashians or NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt or any other real people, doing real- +people things, everything you are watching is just pixels, no different than the pixels +produced by an Al model. Technically, video of synthetic people can be literally +indistinguishable from video of real people. + +There is no technical reason that synthetic people can't be literally indistinguishable from real +people. + +https://archive.ph/spTgJ + +14/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM + +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +And we're getting closer. As mentioned above, it is already hard to tell that the people +in the Veo demo aren't real. This mirrors the amazing improvement in image +generation models over the last couple of years; Figure 6 shows the same prompt used +in each generation of Midjourney, up through the most recent. + +Will AI ever surpass the uncanny valley? Right now, it's impossible to know, but it will +likely keep improving. The ability to capture more nuanced emotions and lip syncing +will almost certainly get better, owing to larger datasets, better markerless motion +capture (when using reference video) and multi-modal model architectures that are +better able to handle multiple data streams (like transformers that have both visual and +audio attention mechanisms). + +## Figure 6. Progression in Midjourney + +The image shows a grid of seven AI-generated portraits of a young Japanese woman smiling, each created using a different version of Midjourney. The versions are labeled V1, V2, V3, V4, V5, V6, and V6.1. The portraits show a progression in realism and detail, with the later versions exhibiting more natural lighting, skin texture, and facial expressions. The prompt used to generate the images is "high quality photograph of a young Japanese woman smiling, backlighting, natural pale light, film camera." The source is attributed to Rinko Kawauchi. + +## Consumers Will Probably Warm to Al—To a Degree + +I think that the trajectory of consumer acceptance of AI is a bigger wildcard than the +technology. + +Al is unsettling. Here's a quote from Brian Arthur in The Nature of Technology that I've +cited before, which I think captures it: + +Our deepest hope as humans lies in technology; but our deepest trust lies in nature. +These forces are like tectonic plates grinding inexorably into each other in one +long, slow collision....We are moving from an era where machines enhanced the +natural-speeded our movements, saved our sweat, stitched our clothing-to one +that brings in technologies that resemble or replace the natural-genetic + +https://archive.ph/spTgJ + +15/21 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +How Far Will AI Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +engineering, artificial intelligence, medical devices implanted in our bodies. As we +learn to use these technologies, we are moving from using nature to intervening +directly within nature. And so the story of this century will be about the clash +between what technology offers and what we feel comfortable with. + +Most depictions of AI in popular culture reflect this unease. From HAL in 2001: A +Space Odyssey, to Skynet in Terminator, to M3GAN, AI is usually something to be feared +or distrusted. It's not surprising that people would be disconcerted by content created +with AI. Will they get over this hump? Here's how I think about it: + +## TV and Film Keeps Getting More Synthetic and Consumers Haven't Revolted Yet + +Filmmaking has always involved a social contract between viewer and filmmaker: "I +will suspend my disbelief that this is fake as long as it's sufficiently believable. But I +know it's fake.” From [AI Use Cases in Hollywood](https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/ai-use-cases-hollywood-1235858103/): + +You can draw a line from George Méliès using stop motion animation in A Trip to +the Moon (1902) to the intricate sets in Fritz Lang's Metropolis (1927) to the +maquettes in King Kong (1933) to the even more sophisticated models, costumes and +make up in Star Wars (1977) to the first CGI in TRON (1982) and the continuing +evolution of computer graphics and VFX in Jurassic Park (1993), the Lord of the Rings +trilogy (2001) and Avatar (2009), to where we are today. Every step has become more +divorced from reality...[T]oday almost every mainstream film has some VFX and, in +a film like Avatar 2: Way of Water, almost every frame has been heavily altered and +manipulated digitally. + +This history of syntheticization is pictured in Figure 7. Note that, until the advent of +CGI in the early 1980s, most of the innovation in syntheticization consisted of adding +synthetic physical elements (maquettes, prosthetics, physical special effects, etc.); after +that, most of it consisted of adding synthetic virtual elements, created on a computer. +But consumers have continued to eat it up, even as films and TV shows have become +increasingly VFX-heavy. + +Figure 7: The History of Filmmaking as a Process of Syntheticization + +### SYNTHETICISM + +The image is a timeline of films and their advancements in syntheticism. + +* 1902: A Trip to the Moon. Pioneering use of stop motion animation. More sophisticated use of stop motion and maquettes. +* 1933: King Kong. Intricate models, front projection, green screen and several other new special effects techniques. +* 1968: 2001: A Space Odyssey. More advanced models, costumes and make up. +* 1977: Star Wars. Special effects. +* 1982: Tron. First extensive use of computer-generated imagery (CGI) combined with live action. +* 1993: Jurassic Park. Groundbreaking use of CGI, robotics and digital compositing. +* 2001: Lord of the Rings. Photorealistic CGI, further advancements in motion capture and blending of practical effects with visual effects (VFX). +* 2009: Avatar. More sophisticated performance capture and use of virtual cameras/simulcam technology. +* 2019: The Mandalorian. First extensive use of virtual production (VP) sets. +* 2023: Avatar: The Way of Water. Invention of underwater motion capture technology and 98% of shots use VFX. + +# 16/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +Source: Author. + +So, the question then is: Is there something about the “fakeness” of AI that is +inherently more off-putting than the “fakeness” of VFX? I think the answer is no. I +believe that the problem to date has been unnatural humans, janky motion, temporal +inconsistency and temporal incoherency - things that have just looked "off." But if +these are sufficiently resolved, I don't expect that consumers will reject AI just +because it is AI. + +Is there something about the “fakeness” of AI that is inherently more off-putting than the +"fakeness” of VFX, which consumers have embraced? + +## The Lines Between Al and Not-Al Will Blur + +It will also get harder to tell what is AI and what isn't. AI will increasingly be +incorporated in popular edit suites, native AI like Adobe Firefly or 3rd party plug-ins. +Workflows will increasingly entail some combination of live footage, Al enhancement +or augmentation, AI-assisted editing, manual cleanup, etc. At that point, who will +know what is and isn't AI in the final product? + +## Familiarity Will Probably Breed Acceptance + +The FTI Delta study mentioned above concluded that consumers are more receptive to +Al when they've used the tools. That follows a general truism: people like things (and, +for that matter, people) more when they're more familiar with them. Right now, Al is +scary partly because it's mysterious. As the mystery fades, reluctance probably will too. + +## It Doesn't Require Radical Scenarios to Produce Radical Outcomes + +A lot of people in Hollywood don't want to engage on this topic. I think they should. + +Part of the problem is that we tend to think linearly, even though the world isn't linear. +So, it can be very hard to see inflection points, even when you're standing right in front +of them. It reminds me of this cartoon from [Wait But Why](https://waitbutwhy.com/): + +Figure 7. It's Hard to See Inflection Points, Even When They're Right Next to You + +The image shows two graphs, both titled "It's Hard to See Inflection Points, Even When They're Right Next to You". The graphs depict human progress over time. The first graph shows a gradual, linear increase in human progress, followed by a sharp, exponential increase at a later point in time. The second graph shows a similar pattern, but with a slightly different shape. Both graphs illustrate the idea that it can be difficult to recognize inflection points, even when they are occurring. + +# 17/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +Source: Wait But Why. + +Another challenge is that it's easy to dismiss a risk that seems so abstract. A few +months ago, I was talking with a Hollywood executive about GenAI and he shrugged +his shoulders and said "Yeah, no one knows." The point of this scenario exercise is to +make the abstract more concrete and force us to confront what might happen. + +For the reasons described above, it is hardly imaginable that GenAI technology won't +keep progressing. Maybe it will never be entirely indistinguishable from live action +footage, but it will get closer. It's also hard (albeit not as hard), to imagine that +consumers won't warm to GenAI-enabled content over time. Perhaps we'll never fully +accept synthetic humans, but there are a lot of content genres and use cases that don't +rely on emotive actors. So, the most likely outcomes probably fall somewhere in the +messy blob in Figure 8. + +Figure 8. The Messy Blob of Likelihood + +The image is a diagram showing the messy blob of likelihood. The diagram has four quadrants: Stuck in the Valley, Novelty and Niche, The Wary Consumer, and Hit Show. The Most Likely Outcomes is in the center of the diagram. + +Source: Author. + +What does that tell us? Even short of the most radical scenarios, the business would +transform radically. Among other things, within that blob: + +* There would be a vast increase in the supply of content, especially in certain + genres. +* Consumer time and attention would continue to get drawn away from corporate + content, perhaps everything other than the most premium blockbusters and + scripted TV. +* Barriers would fall for small teams, creators and international producers who are + willing and able to work within the constraints of technology and consumer + preferences. +* As production costs fall, new revenue and distribution models would likely + emerge. + +# 18/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +* As content becomes more abundant, other things would get scarcer and more + valuable as consumers seek out both filters to navigate all that choice and human + connection. These include curation, trusted IP and brands, marketing prowess, + communities, provenance, and IRL events. + +In Figure 7, you can't tell which way the little guy is facing. Today, a lot of people in +Hollywood are looking backwards, assuming or hoping the slope won't change much. +It probably will. + +Thanks for Mike Gioia for his feedback on a draft of this post. + +1 And, for that matter, media broadly. + +2 For the sake of completeness: Entry barriers fell, paving the way for new entrants like +Netflix, Amazon and YouTube. They have radically changed the consumer video experience +and the economics of the video business. This has exerted tremendous pressure on the +incumbent video value chain, including media conglomerates, cable and satellite video +distributors, TV stations, and movie theaters, and ripple effects have been felt everywhere +else, including advertisers, ad agencies, sports leagues, talent, and talent representation. + +3 Each pixel is usually made up of three subpixels, that emit different colors: red, green, and +blue (RGB). In an 8-bit system, each of these subpixels could have any of 256 values (two +possible values for each bit raised to the 8th power = 256). So, that means that each pixel can +take on one of 16.8 million values (256 x 256 x 256)-in other words, virtually any color the +human eye can see. In an HD signal, there are over 2 million pixels per frame; a 4K image +has four-times as many, or more than 8 million. + +## Subscribe to The Mediator +By Doug Shapiro + +The Mediator is (mostly) about the long term structural changes in the media industry and the business, +cultural, and societal implications of those shifts. I write it to get closer to the frontier. + +By subscribing, I agree to Substack's [Terms of Use](https://substack.com/terms), and acknowledge +its [Information Collection Notice](https://substack.com/privacy#collection) and [Privacy Policy](https://substack.com/privacy). + +47 Likes 9 Restacks + +47 7 9 + +[Previous](#) +[Next](#) + +## Discussion about this post + +[Comments](#) [Restacks](#) + +# 19/21 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +How Far Will Al Video Go? - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +Write a comment... + +stephan pauly Feb 15 Edited +❤Liked by Doug Shapiro + +Thank you so much, what a great and solid analysis! Beats 99,9% of my linkedin feed for sure. +I'm in the advertising film business, and there's 2 things I can already tell: + +1) your second factor - audience acceptance - is irrelevant in our ecosystem as long as the quality is +good enough, which it obviously already is. The 100% ai generated COKE xmas commercials were +tested with audiences and people loved them, no pushback there. + +2) "Studios have used these technologies to marginally reduce production costs, say 15-25%." That +does not seem "marginal" to me! As we pitch each&every project against at least 2 competitors, a 20% +cost advantage is a MASSIVE business advantage over the competition. I wish we could harness Al's +potential to be 20% less costly than the competition (but then again, if we can, then the competition +also can). + +For now, these cost cutting advantages have not arrived in our ecosystem. I assume that is to a large +extent based on legal uncertainties around the use of Al, and will soon change drastically once the +legal frameworks get adjusted to what's technically achievable. + +LIKE (3) REPLY SHARE + +Jordi Martínez Subías Feb 15 +❤Liked by Doug Shapiro + +It is not true to say that people have enough video content available "for free" on YouTube: we either +pay a subscription fee or have to watch a huge amount of video ads. This means it has to be rewarding +anyhow. We might be open to spend 2 or 3 minutes watching entirely Al generated video while the +technology behind is surprising, but eventually we'll not care about how that video was made and +enjoy it for its content: the story, the characters, the setting, etc. So, I believe people will eventually +accept video Al except when the characters matter. Otherwise, it feels like an animation movie and +these are set apart even without the involvement of Al at all. + +LIKE (2) REPLY SHARE + +5 more comments... + +Top Latest Discussions + +28 Days of Media Slides +An Industry in Upheaval +JAN 7 DOUG SHAPIRO + +The image is a thumbnail for a post titled "28 Days of Media Slides" with the subtitle "An Industry in Upheaval". The thumbnail shows a calendar with the word "December" written on it, and the letters "HBO" are circled. + +53 9 + +Quality is a Serious Problem +Understanding The Changing Consumer Definition of Quality in Media +JAN 20 DOUG SHAPIRO + +The image is a thumbnail for a post titled "Quality is a Serious Problem" with the subtitle "Understanding The Changing Consumer Definition of Quality in Media". The thumbnail shows a close-up of a person's face, with a blurred background. + +91 19 + +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy +How Big it Is and Why it Will Keep Growing at the Expense of Corporate Media +DEC 1, 2024 DOUG SHAPIRO + +The image is a thumbnail for a post titled "The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy" with the subtitle "How Big it Is and Why it Will Keep Growing at the Expense of Corporate Media". The thumbnail shows a crowd of people holding up their phones, with a blurred background. + +72 10 + +# 20/21 -- 2.45.2 From 8c4ebde0339f1b3e8d9eebcfe09072f4cec78372 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:45:28 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 05/13] extract: shapiro-ip-as-platform Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-ip-as-platform.json | 35 +++++++++++++++++++ inbox/queue/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md | 20 ++++++++++- 2 files changed, 54 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-ip-as-platform.json diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-ip-as-platform.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-ip-as-platform.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c7511135 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-ip-as-platform.json @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "entertainment-ip-as-platform-enables-fan-creation-to-strengthen-franchise-value.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "fan-creation-barriers-determine-content-volume-not-fan-passion.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 2, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 5, + "rejected": 2, + "fixes_applied": [ + "entertainment-ip-as-platform-enables-fan-creation-to-strengthen-franchise-value.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "entertainment-ip-as-platform-enables-fan-creation-to-strengthen-franchise-value.md:stripped_wiki_link:the-fanchise-engagement-ladder-from-content-to-co-ownership-", + "entertainment-ip-as-platform-enables-fan-creation-to-strengthen-franchise-value.md:stripped_wiki_link:two-phase-disruption-where-distribution-moats-fall-first-and", + "fan-creation-barriers-determine-content-volume-not-fan-passion.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "fan-creation-barriers-determine-content-volume-not-fan-passion.md:stripped_wiki_link:two-phase-disruption-where-distribution-moats-fall-first-and" + ], + "rejections": [ + "entertainment-ip-as-platform-enables-fan-creation-to-strengthen-franchise-value.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "fan-creation-barriers-determine-content-volume-not-fan-passion.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-19" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md b/inbox/queue/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md index 4153fb11..b878beeb 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md +++ b/inbox/queue/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md @@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date_published: "2023-08-01" date_archived: "2025-04-23" archived_by: "clay" domain: "entertainment" -status: unprocessed +status: null-result claims_extracted: - "entertainment IP should be treated as a multi-sided platform that enables fan creation rather than a unidirectional broadcast asset" +processed_by: leo +processed_date: 2026-03-19 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator" --- # IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator @@ -367,3 +371,17 @@ Special thanks to Anthony Koithra for his feedback to a draft of this post. # 10/12 [https://archive.ph/AsshV](https://archive.ph/AsshV) + + +## Key Facts +- FanFiction.net has over 14 million stories comprising approximately 60 billion words +- Archive of Our Own (AO3) has 5 million fanfic stories including 500K about MCU, 400K about Harry Potter, 300K about DC, 250K about Supernatural +- The most-read work on AO3 has over 9 million hits +- Fandom has over 250,000 fan-created wikis with Marvel and Star Wars wikis containing 280K and 180K pages respectively +- AO3 won a Hugo Award in 2019 +- According to Troika study, 85% of people say they are a fan of something, 97% of people aged 18-24 +- Over 40 million games have been created with Roblox Studio +- According to Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney, half of all play time on Fortnite is now on games made by 3rd parties using Fortnite Creative +- Twitch viewers watched 22 billion hours on the platform in recent period +- Minecraft videos have received 1 trillion views on YouTube +- The compulsory copyright license in music is administered by the Harry Fox Agency and statutory mechanical royalty rate is set by the Copyright Royalty Board -- 2.45.2 From ccc22dde6f30f5714a30294e3bb3de72d2a23794 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:47:02 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 06/13] pipeline: archive 1 source(s) post-merge Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../archive/general/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md | 369 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 369 insertions(+) create mode 100644 inbox/archive/general/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..019be0dd --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-ip-as-platform.md @@ -0,0 +1,369 @@ +--- +source_type: "article" +title: "IP as Platform" +author: "Doug Shapiro" +url: "https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/ip-as-platform" +date_published: "2023-08-01" +date_archived: "2025-04-23" +archived_by: "clay" +domain: "entertainment" +status: processed +claims_extracted: + - "entertainment IP should be treated as a multi-sided platform that enables fan creation rather than a unidirectional broadcast asset" +--- +# IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +4/23/25, 6:56 PM +archive.today Saved from https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/ip-as-platform +search +23 Apr 2025 17:52:34 UTC +no other snapshots from this url +All snapshots from host dougshapiro.substack.com +Webpage +Screenshot +webpage capture +download.zip +report bug or abuse + +## IP as Platform + +How Entertainment Companies Can Capitalize on Infinite Content + +[Image of Doug Shapiro] +DOUG SHAPIRO +FEB 21, 2023 + +2 +1 +share + +[Note that this essay was originally published on Medium] +Share + +[Image of a crowd of people walking towards a swirling vortex of colorful figures] +Source: Midjourney, prompt: "an abstract image of an infinite number of people +collaborating on a work of art" + +Last month, I published a post called Forget Peak TV, Here Comes Infinite TV. It +made the case that over the next 5-10 years, several technologies (including virtual +production and AI) will cause the quality distinction between professionally-produced +and user-generated content to blur, resulting in effectively “infinite” high-quality +video. + +Putting aside the specific technologies, there are two basic ideas here that I think are +hard to refute: 1) technology generally makes it possible to do more with less; and 2) +https://archive.ph/AsshV +1/12 + +## IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +4/23/25, 6:56 PM +the collective creative energy of the general population is far greater than the tiny +percentage of people who have navigated the established system for creating content. + +We have already seen both play out in journalism and music. What once required an +entire newspaper printing and distribution infrastructure to accomplish can now be +done with Substack; what once required a record label now can be done with Logic Pro +and Spotify. The vast, vast majority of self-published writing and music is not worth +reading or listening to. But some is. Today, some of the best journalists in the world +never worked at a newspaper and most new superstar music acts emerge from the tail +of self-distributed music. The arc of technology suggests that inevitably film and TV +will face the same dynamics. This doesn't mean the end of Hollywood. But it has the +potential to be extremely disruptive. + +Rather than focus on the threat, let's focus on the opportunity. Suppose you were +running an entertainment company and you bought the premise. Could you capitalize +on it? Even if you think the trends I'm describing are years away, the recent explosion +of activity and attention around Al make the question worth asking now. + +One way to harness this creative energy, as opposed to fighting or dismissing it, is to +think of your IP as a platform. + +Tl;dr: + +* It's easy to see why "infinite TV" could be extremely disruptive for entertainment + companies. But they can also capitalize on it. +* "IP as platform" means enabling and encouraging creators to expand on your + intellectual property and curating this fan content for consumers. +* This may sound like a radical idea, but fan art is an inherent part of the music + business and the gaming industry has been built by commercializing emergent fan + behaviors. +* Not every entertainment franchise will inspire fan creation. But facilitating fan art + could have several benefits for entertainment companies, such as strengthening + their relationships with their most ardent fans and attracting new ones; providing + free marketing; possibly sourcing new stories and talent; and boosting revenue. + Plus, it might be hard to prevent even if they wanted to. +* I discuss a basic framework for how all this might work. + +Thanks for reading The Mediator! Subscribe for +free to receive new posts and support my work. + +## What Does "IP as Platform" Mean? + +Let's break down "IP as platform" into its components, starting with intellectual +property (IP). From Infinite TV: + +The most valuable franchises may become even more valuable. With new tools and +lower costs, many creators will want to dream up entirely new stories. A lot will also +https://archive.ph/AsshV +2/12 + +## IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +4/23/25, 6:56 PM +probably want to expand on their favorite fictional worlds, whether Harry Potter, +the MCU or Game of Thrones—or create mash-ups between them. Historically, +Hollywood has guarded its IP closely and has been more inclined to view fan fiction +as copyright infringement than enhancement. But progressive rights owners would +be wise to harness all the potential creative energy, not stifle it. + +By platform, I mean a multi-sided market-a business that facilitates the interaction +of 3rd parties and consumers. Prototypical platform businesses include Microsoft +Windows, which enables developers to create applications for PC owners, or Uber, +which connects drivers and riders. + +What would "IP as platform" mean for an entertainment company? Below I discuss +what this might mean in practice, but in theory it means enabling and encouraging 3rd +party creators to produce content that builds on their IP and making that content +available to consumers. + +"IP as platform” means enabling and encouraging creators to expand on your intellectual +property and surfacing it for consumers. + +The analogy only extends so far. Platform businesses are usually characterized by +strong network effects on each side of the market, which are key to their value +proposition, competitive moats and consumer lock in. As a result, they have a “cold +start" problem (they need to have a lot of buyers and sellers to attract a lot of sellers +and buyers) and platform businesses with particularly strong network effects often +create winner-take-most markets. Neither would be the case here. The most popular +entertainment franchises definitionally already have rabid fan bases and, because they +are so highly differentiated, there won't be winner-take-most markets (Harry Potter, +the MCU and James Bond can all succeed). + +Hollywood is very precious about its IP and the idea of providing access to the general +populace might sound like heresy. + +Here's why it shouldn't. + +## Hollywood Needs Fans + +As the world transitions to infinite content, IP owners need fans more than ever. +"Users" are dispassionate; “consumers” don't give anything back. “Fans” are...fanatical. + +According to a study by Troika, 85% of people say they are a fan of something, and 97% +of people aged 18–24. Especially at a time when religious affiliation continues to +decline, for a lot of these people, their fandom is a vital part of their identity. (That's +exemplified by the prevalence of brand tattoos.) + +For many people, the object of their fandom is entertainment IP. Anyone who has been +to ComicCon, E3 or a Harry Styles concert has seen that, as does anyone who has been +on the wrong side of fan backlash. +https://archive.ph/AsshV +3/12 + +## IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +4/23/25, 6:56 PM +Fans are loyal. Fans are unpaid marketers. And fans are lucrative. In theory, for every +product that has a downward sloping demand curve, every unit of demand to the left of +the market clearing price is willing to pay more than that price. Those points on the +curve represent fans. Consulting firm Activate has been particularly vocal about the +need for media companies to target “Superusers.” According to their research, +Superusers represent a disproportionate amount of both time spent (Figure 1) and +dollar spend (Figure 2). + +Figure 1. Superusers Represent a Disproportionate Amount of Time Spent... + +[Image of a bar graph comparing the average daily time spent with media per user between all other users and super users. The graph shows that all other users spend an average of 9 hours and 21 minutes, while super users spend an average of 18 hours and 55 minutes. The graph also shows that super users make up 22% of the user population.] + +1. Includes time spent watching video, playing video games, listening to music, listening to + podcasts, and using messaging / social media services. Does not account for multitasking. + Sources: Activate analysis, Activate 2022 Consumer Technology & Media Research Study (n = + 4,001), Company filings, Comscore, Conviva, eMarketer, GWI, Music Biz, Newzoo, Nielsen, + NPD Group, Pew Research Center, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. + +Figure 2. ...And Spend + +[Image of a bar graph comparing the monthly dollar spend by media type between all other users and super users. The graph shows the total video spend, total gaming spend, and total music spend for each group. The graph also shows the percentage of the user population that each group represents.] + +1. Includes money spent on all videos and video services, including traditional/virtual Pay TV, + video streaming subscription services, and video purchases/rentals. 2. Includes money spent on + video games and other video gaming purchases (e.g. in app purchases, video gaming + subscription services) across all devices. 3. Includes money spent on music and music services. + Sources: Activate analysis, Activate 2022 Consumer Technology & Media Research Study (n = + 4,001), eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, Grand View Research, IFPI, Newzoo, Omdia, + PricewaterhouseCoopers, Recording Industry Association of America, SiriusXM, Statista. +https://archive.ph/AsshV +4/12 + +## IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +4/23/25, 6:56 PM +Fans Want to Create + +For fans, fan art is a love letter to the object of their fandom and a way to strengthen +their bond with the fan community. The most prevalent form-because it has the +lowest barrier to entry—is fan fiction (or fanfic, FFs or just fics). + +Figure 3. By One Estimate, the Volume of Fanfic Rivals All Fiction, Ever + +[Image of a graphic comparing the volume of fanfiction to all other fiction. The graphic shows that fanfiction.net has 60 billion words, while all of human history has 80 billion words.] + +Note: “All of Human History” comprises all the words in the Google English fiction corpus. +Source: Cecelia Aragon. + +The modern history of fanfic dates back to science fiction fanzines in the 1940s and +the first TV-related fanzines, about Star Trek, in the late '60s. But fanfic surged with +the advent of the Internet. There are now over 14 million stories on the largest fan +fiction website, FanFiction.net. According to one researcher, this comprises 60 billion +words, compared to the 80 billion words in the entire Google English fiction corpus +over the prior five centuries (Figure 3). + +There are 5 million fanfic stories on Archive of Our Own (AO3), including 500,000 +stories about the MCU, 400,000 about Harry Potter and 300,000 about DC, among +many other fandoms. Sometimes even less well-known franchises have a rabid (or +prolific) fan base; the TV series Supernatural has over 250,000 stories. The most-read +work on AO3 (which occurs in the world of Harry Potter) has over 9 million hits. The +fan site Fandom has over 250,000 fan-created “wikis,” where fans post fanfic, videos +and articles that explain the official canon. Marvel and Star Wars, two of the largest +wikis, include 280,000 and 180,000 pages, respectively. + +It has also been legitimized. Initially, fan fiction lurked in the dark corners of the +Internet. While much of the content is still graphic, in recent years it has become +increasingly mainstream. In 2019, AO3 won a Hugo Award, the most prestigious +award in science fiction. And a number of fan fiction works have achieved broad +commercial success, like 50 Shades of Gray (which was originally Twilight fan fiction); +The Mortal Instruments series (based off Harry Potter); and the zombie-Jane Austen +mash-up Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. + +Star Wars: X-Wing | A Star Wars Fan Film +Copy link +https://archive.ph/AsshV +5/12 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:56 PM + +Watch on ►YouTube + +IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +If you search "fan film" in YouTube, some astounding stuff comes up, like the video embedded above. Seriously, watch at least the first minute. Or consider this fan-made re-imagining of *The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air*, which resulted in the show *Bel-Air* on Peacock and landed the creator an Executive Producer role. But video fan art is far less common than fanfic for the obvious reason. It's really hard to do. (In the video embedded above, all the 3D models were made from scratch and the project took four years.) + +What happens when it isn't? + +# Music and Gaming as Models + +Hollywood and the literary community have ambivalent relationships with fan fiction. Whether non-commercial fan fiction falls under fair use protection is not clear cut, as fair use is determined on a case-by-case basis. Studios and book publishers have generally turned a blind eye-unless it is commercialized, in which case they (understandably) spring into action. Famous examples include J.K. Rowling shutting down a fan-made *Harry Potter* encyclopedia, J.D. Salinger suing to prevent a sequel of *Catcher in the Rye* or CBS/Paramount successfully stopping a *Star Trek* feature film. + +Let's look at two media for which fan creation is much more closely tied to the business: music and gaming. + +# Songwriters Must Enable Fan Art by Statute + +Fan art is a critical part of the music business owing to the compulsory copyright license. Anyone granted a copyright for a musical work in the U.S. must issue a license to anyone who wants to record the music. + +In other words, anyone can cover a song—and commercialize it—as long as they secure a so-called "mechanical license." (Most of these licenses are administered by the Harry Fox Agency, which issues licenses and collects royalty payments.) Some streaming services, like Spotify and Apple Music, even handle that for cover artists. The statutory mechanical royalty rate is set by the Copyright Royalty Board, which is overseen by the Library of Congress. Total mechanical royalties aren't a huge part of music publishers' revenue, but successful covers generate additional royalties and can substantially boost the popularity of the original recording. + +This isn't to suggest that entertainment companies develop a similar framework-they probably don't want three judges who were appointed by the Librarian of Congress to + +# 6/12 + +[https://archive.ph/AsshV](https://archive.ph/AsshV) + +# 4/23/25, 6:56 PM + +IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +decide the licensing terms for their IP. The point is that while we may not usually think of song covers this way, “fan art” is an inherent part of the music business. + +# Gaming Was Built by Commercializing Emergent Fan Behaviors + +While Hollywood has a low tolerance for fan art and the music industry has a mutually beneficial relationship (and no choice), the videogame industry has fully embraced fan creation. It is arguably built on the back of emergent fan behaviors. + +Part of the reason is that, unlike passive media like TV, radio or print, gaming requires users to interact with the content and each other, which often leads in unexpected directions. Plus, the origins of gaming have close ties to the hacker/DIY community and many hardcore gamers have a high degree of technical proficiency and therefore the ability to alter games as they see fit. + +Whatever the reason, progressive developers have long recognized these hacks and workarounds as unmet jobs to be done and commercialized them. I'm not talking about tangential features-much of the innovation in the videogame business originated with fan behavior. + +*The videogame industry is built on the back of unexpected fan behaviors.* + +# Modding + +Modifying videogames, or “modding,” has been an essential part of gaming for decades. Initially, developers didn't encourage it, but in 1983, id Software released DOOM with a separate game engine and data file, which enabled the creation of game mods. Since then, it is more common than not that games permit or encourage modding and there are numerous platforms for creating and discovering mods, like Steam Workshop. + +Some of the most successful games today are mods of other games: Counter-Strike is a mod of Valve's *Half-Life*; Dota 2 is a sequel to Dota, which is a mod of Blizzard's *Warcraft III*; and in turn League of Legends was inspired by Dota and is also built on the *Warcraft* engine. + +Figure 5. Creating is Intrinsic to Roblox + +The image shows a screenshot of the Roblox Studio interface. The interface is colorful and features a prominent "Start Creating" button. The text "Make Anything You Can Imagine" is displayed above the button, emphasizing the creative possibilities within the platform. The interface also includes options like "Discover," "Avatar Shop," and "Create," suggesting a comprehensive environment for game development and community interaction. + +Some of the most successful games today have taken modding to its logical conclusion: rather than just provide separate tools for modding, it is an integral part of the + +# 7/12 + +[https://archive.ph/AsshV](https://archive.ph/AsshV) + +# 4/23/25, 6:56 PM + +IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +experience. Over 40 million games have been created with Roblox Studio and although there are a handful of native games on Roblox, all of the top-ranked games were made by creators. According to Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney, half of all play time on Fortnite is now on games made by 3rd parties using Fortnite Creative. + +# Virtual Goods + +The first virtual goods to be exchanged for real money (“Real Money Trade”) were items made for multi-user dungeons (MUDs) in the 1970s and massively multiplayer online games (MMOGs) in the early 1980s, traded on local message boards and later on Ebay. These trades were the first indications of user willingness to spend real money on virtual items. Today, virtual goods are the foundation of free-to-play gaming and people spend an estimated $80 billion annually on virtual goods in videogames. + +# Competitions and Esports + +Since videogames originated prior to widespread Internet adoption and, of course, broadband access, originally competitive online play of fast (“twitch”) games was impossible. However, as early as the 1970s groups of gamers held “LAN parties," at which they would bring their own PCs and hook them into a LAN. According to Mitch Lasky in the (highly-recommended) podcast Gamecraft, *Quake III Arena*, also from id, was the first game to be geared largely around online multiplayer play. Today, almost all games include multiplayer online gameplay modes and many games can't be played offline at all. + +While the idea that people would want to play with other people online was a no-brainer, it was not at all as obvious that people would want to watch other people play videogames. In 1999, South Korean broadcaster ON Media sought content to fill up airtime in the evening on its cartoon network, Tooniverse, and broadcast a *StarCraft* tournament. It was such a phenomenon that the next year it launched a dedicated esports network, OnGameNet (OGN). + +Today, League of Legends World Championship tickets sell out in minutes and last year Twitch viewers watched 22 billion hours on the platform. YouTube recently announced that Minecraft videos have now received a mind-boggling 1 trillion views. The game would likely never have been nearly as popular without all that free marketing. Whether esports is a good business is a fair question. But publishers of popular multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) and first-person shooter games, like Riot, Blizzard-Activision and Valve, now rely on both live events and livestreaming platforms as critical marketing tools for their games. + +# How Would You Do It? + +So, fan art, broadly defined, is an important or even critical part of other media. As mentioned, historically this has been very hard to do in video, but as I described in Infinite TV, technology is on a path to make it much easier. For entertainment companies, they may not be able to stop this even if they want to. As also mentioned above, whether non-commercial fan fiction falls under fair use is a legal gray area and determined on a case by case basis. The democratization of high production value creation tools could result in a tsunami of non-commercial fan content. Even if these fans aren't competing for dollars, a flood of high quality Batman or Star Wars fan films could compete for attention. + +# 8/12 + +[https://archive.ph/AsshV](https://archive.ph/AsshV) + +# 4/23/25, 6:56 PM + +IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +Entertainment companies may not be able to stop it even if they want to and embracing it could bring several benefits. + +As a result, enabling fan art could be defensive. If done right, it could also provide numerous benefits. It would strengthen entertainment companies' relationship with their most ardent fans; could attract new fans; provide free marketing; might be an inexpensive way to source new stories and talent; and could boost revenue. + +Figure 6. Unreal Engine Marketplace + +The image shows a screenshot of the Unreal Engine Marketplace. The marketplace is a digital storefront where users can purchase and download assets for use in the Unreal Engine. The interface is clean and organized, with a search bar, filtering options, and various categories of assets. The assets displayed include environments, characters, and other 3D models. The image highlights the wide range of content available on the marketplace, suggesting its importance as a resource for game developers and other creators. + +What does "done right" mean? This is just a sketch of an idea, but a framework would probably need a few components: + +* Tools. The easiest way to provide creation tools would be to leverage existing real-time rendering engines, namely Unreal Engine and Unity. IP owners could offer creators packs of digital assets associated with different franchises (The Wizarding World of Harry Potter, the MCU, Minions, etc.), including characters (in different outfits, at different ages), environments, vehicles, props and even music and sound effects. These assets should be in a consistent style and aesthetic (across a franchise and, possibly, even the entire corporate umbrella) so creators can seamlessly combine them. The other benefit of tightly integrating with gaming engines would be the potential for these assets to be used for more than just linear storytelling, such as gaming and other interactive applications. They could go even further, and work with Unreal and Unity to offer a suite of assets let's say a "Warner Bros. Filmmaker" plug-in—that would offer easy set-up, editing, pre-set character animations, etc., so that complete beginners could make rudimentary films without extensive training. (This is loosely analogous to what Disney allowed in toy box mode of the now defunct Disney Infinity, albeit for game design, not filmmaking.) These assets and plug-ins could be available on new official fan creation sites and/or in the existing Unreal and Unity asset marketplaces (the Unreal Marketplace is shown in Figure 6 above). Epic and Unity could probably be persuaded to create storefronts for different franchises, to make navigation easy. +* Rights. Entertainment companies would need to ensure they have the rights for all the digital assets they provide, especially the characters. Would the 3D digital + +# 9/12 + +[https://archive.ph/AsshV](https://archive.ph/AsshV) + +# 4/23/25, 6:56 PM + +IP as Platform - by Doug Shapiro - The Mediator + +* Tony Stark look like Robert Downey Jr.? That probably depends on what "image and personality" rights he signed away in his contract. +* A legal framework. The digital asset licenses would need to have some sort of stipulation how the assets may be used. These should probably be as permissive as possible but include prohibitions against obscenity, whatever that is. IP owners would probably also want some sort of safe harbor protection against creators uploading fan art and then claiming that subsequent official releases were based on their ideas. +* A distribution platform. Creators would need a way to distribute their work. Perhaps they should be allowed to distribute any way they want (YouTube, TikTok), perhaps not. But it would also be important to create an "official" dedicated distribution outlet for this content, such as within entertainment companies' streaming services or YouTube channels created specifically for fan content. This official platform would also be a natural place for fan communities to gravitate, where they could comment and vote on their favorite fan works. +* A big carrot: the promise of validation. To tie this all together it would also make sense to add a strong incentive for creators to adhere to guardrails and post on the "official" distribution platform: validation. Entertainment companies could curate the best fan content, selectively provide some sort of Good-Housekeeping-seal-of-approval for some content (“Disney approved!") ("featured fan film of the month") and even hold out the promise of hiring the most talented creators for future work. The possibility of validation by IP owners would be a dream come true-and huge draw-for creators. +* An economic framework. There would need to be some established revenue sharing arrangement for any monetization of the content (and probably a watermarking system to ensure the entertainment companies/creators get credit). +* Careful management of the canon. Entertainment companies would also need to carefully manage what they deem official canon. But this already happens today. For instance, in 2014 Disney rebranded the Star Wars Expanded Universe (all non-film media, like books and comics) as *Star Wars Legends*, meaning that these stories were no longer canon and future films and stories wouldn't be bound by them. Disney also cleverly introduced the multiverse concept to the MCU, meaning that everything (and, I guess, nothing) is canon, because anything is possible. Official DC canon is also presumably up in the air with the recent arrival of James Gunn and Peter Safran to run the franchise. + +As described at the beginning, the quality differential between the "head" and the "tail" has already blurred in lower-barrier media, like journalism and music. It hasn't happened yet in video because the barriers are so much higher, but the usual arc of technology suggests those high barriers only delayed the inevitable. If you buy the premise, then entertainment companies have a choice: they can fight the tide or ride it. Since the former may be futile, the latter may be the only viable option. + +Special thanks to Anthony Koithra for his feedback to a draft of this post. + +# 10/12 + +[https://archive.ph/AsshV](https://archive.ph/AsshV) -- 2.45.2 From a9251ce48232075964d30e26b47732f6169cd6c2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:46:40 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 07/13] extract: shapiro-power-laws-culture Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-power-laws-culture.json | 44 +++++++++++++++++++ inbox/queue/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md | 20 ++++++++- 2 files changed, 63 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-power-laws-culture.json diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-power-laws-culture.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-power-laws-culture.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..02caef3d --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-power-laws-culture.json @@ -0,0 +1,44 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "information-cascades-create-power-law-distributions-in-culture-because-consumers-use-popularity-as-quality-signal-when-choice-is-overwhelming.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "recommendation-algorithms-amplify-or-dampen-power-laws-depending-on-collaborative-filtering-weight-because-algorithms-that-surface-popular-content-reinforce-network-cascades.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "the-middle-of-cultural-markets-is-disappearing-because-power-law-amplification-concentrates-returns-at-the-head-and-tail-simultaneously.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 3, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 7, + "rejected": 3, + "fixes_applied": [ + "information-cascades-create-power-law-distributions-in-culture-because-consumers-use-popularity-as-quality-signal-when-choice-is-overwhelming.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "information-cascades-create-power-law-distributions-in-culture-because-consumers-use-popularity-as-quality-signal-when-choice-is-overwhelming.md:stripped_wiki_link:meme-propagation-selects-for-simplicity-novelty-and-conformi", + "information-cascades-create-power-law-distributions-in-culture-because-consumers-use-popularity-as-quality-signal-when-choice-is-overwhelming.md:stripped_wiki_link:network-effects-create-winner-take-most-markets-because-each", + "recommendation-algorithms-amplify-or-dampen-power-laws-depending-on-collaborative-filtering-weight-because-algorithms-that-surface-popular-content-reinforce-network-cascades.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "recommendation-algorithms-amplify-or-dampen-power-laws-depending-on-collaborative-filtering-weight-because-algorithms-that-surface-popular-content-reinforce-network-cascades.md:stripped_wiki_link:agents-that-raise-capital-via-futarchy-accelerate-their-own-", + "the-middle-of-cultural-markets-is-disappearing-because-power-law-amplification-concentrates-returns-at-the-head-and-tail-simultaneously.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "the-middle-of-cultural-markets-is-disappearing-because-power-law-amplification-concentrates-returns-at-the-head-and-tail-simultaneously.md:stripped_wiki_link:disruptors-redefine-quality-rather-than-competing-on-the-inc" + ], + "rejections": [ + "information-cascades-create-power-law-distributions-in-culture-because-consumers-use-popularity-as-quality-signal-when-choice-is-overwhelming.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "recommendation-algorithms-amplify-or-dampen-power-laws-depending-on-collaborative-filtering-weight-because-algorithms-that-surface-popular-content-reinforce-network-cascades.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "the-middle-of-cultural-markets-is-disappearing-because-power-law-amplification-concentrates-returns-at-the-head-and-tail-simultaneously.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-19" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md b/inbox/queue/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md index 8450d8f3..3681cf5a 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md +++ b/inbox/queue/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md @@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date_published: "2023-03-01" date_archived: "2025-04-23" archived_by: "clay" domain: "entertainment" -status: unprocessed +status: null-result claims_extracted: - "information cascades create power law distributions in culture because consumers use popularity as a quality signal when choice is overwhelming" +processed_by: leo +processed_date: 2026-03-19 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 3 claims, 3 rejected by validator" --- # 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro @@ -855,3 +859,17 @@ Subscribe https://archive.ph/0cYxS ## 20/20 + + +## Key Facts +- Spotify has over 80 million tracks with 100,000 new songs uploaded daily as of 2023 +- Top Gun Maverick generated over $700 million domestic box office in 2022 +- Bad Bunny had 18.5 billion Spotify streams in 2022 +- 142 million households watched Squid Game Season 1 in first 28 days per Netflix +- Patreon has 250,000+ creators and 13 million patrons +- Netflix reports 80% of watch time comes from recommendations, 20% from direct search +- Spotify reports 1/3 of new music discovery occurs through algorithmic recommendation +- Major labels (Universal, Sony, Warner) plus Merlin represented 87% of Spotify streams in 2017, declining to 77% by 2021 +- In Salganik/Dodds/Watts experiment, 14,000 subjects rated 48 unknown songs across 9 groups (1 independent, 8 social influence) +- Box office distribution slope became increasingly negative (more extreme) from 2000 to 2022 +- Netflix top 10% of originals represented 95%, 85%, and 75% of global demand in 2018, 2020, and 2022 respectively during period of massive international expansion -- 2.45.2 From ff46d2ad7132eaa6c3c70377b432b861370127f5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:48:16 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 08/13] pipeline: archive 1 source(s) post-merge Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../general/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md | 857 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 857 insertions(+) create mode 100644 inbox/archive/general/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c2d299d0 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-power-laws-culture.md @@ -0,0 +1,857 @@ +--- +source_type: "article" +title: "Power Laws in Culture" +author: "Doug Shapiro" +url: "https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/power-laws-in-culture" +date_published: "2023-03-01" +date_archived: "2025-04-23" +archived_by: "clay" +domain: "entertainment" +status: processed +claims_extracted: + - "information cascades create power law distributions in culture because consumers use popularity as a quality signal when choice is overwhelming" +--- +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +archive.today Saved from https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/power-laws-in-culture + +webpage capture +All snapshots from host dougshapiro.substack.com +search +no other snapshots from this url +Webpage +Screenshot +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +the mediator + +Subscribe +Sign in + +## Power Laws in Culture + +Why Hits Will Persist in an Infinite Content World + +DOUG SHAPIRO +MAR 16, 2023 + +[Note that this essay was originally published on Medium] + + + +Source: Hurca!/stock.adobe.com + +* Almost 20 years ago, Chris Anderson wrote The Long Tail, which accurately predicted that the Internet would fragment attention and consumption would shift into the "tail.” But Top Gun Maverick generated over $700 million at the domestic box office last year, Bad Bunny had 18.5 billion streams on Spotify last year and 142 million households reportedly watched Squid Game Season 1 in its first 28 days. Why are there still hits in a fragmenting world? + +* I recently posted an essay called Forget Peak TV, Here Comes Infinite TV. It made the case that over the next decade video will follow the path of text, photography and music and the quality distinction between “professionally-produced" content and "independent/creator/user-generated" content will increasingly blur. This will result in practically infinite quality video content. Will there still be hits then, or only personalized niches? + +* Have you ever wondered why so many blockbuster movies are about superheroes? Is Hollywood lazy or are consumers' tastes becoming dumber and more homogenized? Or neither? + +## 1/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +* Why does something go viral, anyway? + +* Do content recommendations push you to the most popular shows, movies and songs or are they tailored just for you? Or do they have a different agenda? + +* Will web3 really be the savior of small creators? + +* When Billie Eilish, Lil Nas X, Mr. Beast or PewDiePie emerge from obscurity, was it inevitable that their talent would be recognized or just luck? + +* Are the top rated reviews on Amazon or answers on Quora really the most helpful? + +All of these are questions about the distribution of popularity. And the same phenomenon underlies the answers: networks. + +This essay may be a little wonky, but the topic is something I've been thinking about for more than a decade. (Off and on, not continuously.) + +I explain why power law-like distributions—meaning a few massive hits and a vast number of misses—are an inherent feature of networks; describe how recommendation systems can either dampen or reinforce social signals; show some examples of the persistence of power law-like distributions in media across movies, TV, music and the creator economy; and discuss why all this matters. + +Tl;dr: + +* In an apparent contradiction, the Internet both fragments and concentrates attention. + +* The reason for the former is intuitive. More stuff, less attention per unit of stuff. The reason for the latter is not. It happens because networks are subject to powerful positive feedback loops. On a network, people's choices are influenced by others' decisions, amplifying "hits.” + +* There are two mechanisms underlying this: information cascades (when people treat others' choices as signals of quality) and reputational cascades (when people conform with the group decision). As choice has exploded on the Internet and it has become easier to both observe others' choices and share your own, these mechanisms have become more powerful. + +* Consumers also rely heavily on recommendation algorithms to make choices, intentionally and unintentionally. Depending on how they're constructed, these systems can either boost or dampen the social signals arising from the network. + +* The result is that the distribution of consumption in almost all media persistently, and in some cases increasingly, looks like a power law: a few massive hits and a very, very (very) long tail. I provide a framework for thinking about the "extremeness" of the distribution and show a few examples: box office, Netflix original series, Spotify streams and Patreon patrons. + +* There are a number of important implications for media companies. The good news is that there will likely always be big hits, even in a world of practically infinite content. The bad news is just about everything else: the lucrative middle is being hollowed out; the randomness—and therefore risk-in producing hits is climbing; the tail is become more competitive for hits; more economic rent will + +## 2/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +likely shift to talent; content producers are increasingly at the mercy of curators' algorithms; and paid media is being devalued. + +Thanks for reading The Mediator! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. + +## The Long Tail Was Half Right + +The idea that the Internet would cause media fragmentation is almost as old as the modern Internet itself. (Or maybe older. The line often misattributed to Andy Warhol that "in the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes” was a pre-Internet prediction of fragmentation.) In 1999, Qwest Communications produced an ad featuring a motel with “every movie ever made in every language" (Figure 1). [The Long Tail](https://www.wired.com/2004/10/tail/), published in 2004, argued that because the Internet dramatically lowered the cost to store and transport information goods, it would result in practically infinite shelf space. Faced with far more choice, consumers would shift most of their consumption to the "tail,” heralding the end of mass culture and waning importance of hits. If anything, Anderson underestimated the size of the tail because he didn't anticipate social media. The tail is not Icelandic synth pop, as it turns out, but an endless amount of user generated content. + +Figure 1. Qwest Envisioned Media Fragmentation 25 Years Ago + + + +Source: Qwest Communications print advertisement, 1999. + +That the Internet would yield more choice and, therefore, more fragmentation was intuitive then and is indisputable now. But it only tells half the story. Though it seems contradictory, the Internet both fragments and concentrates attention. This latter idea was explored by Anita Elberse in her book [Blockbusters: Hit-making, Risk-taking, and the Big Business of Entertainment](https://www.amazon.com/Blockbusters-Hit-making-Risk-taking-Business/dp/0547248912), which was in part a rebuttal to The Long Tail. But that book + +## 3/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +was more focused on why suppliers should pursue blockbuster strategies and less about the underlying demand-side dynamics that create hits. + +Understanding those dynamics matters. The contention that there are still hits may seem uncontroversial and certainly feels right intuitively. We know that when Beyonce or Taylor Swift releases an album or the next season of Stranger Things or Game of Thrones drops, the collective attention of popular culture, much like the eye of Sauron, will be trained on it—at least until the next thing comes along. But understanding why there are still hits provides insight into whether this will persist as the supply of content keeps growing faster than demand. + +Understanding why there are still hits provides insight into whether this will persist and the implications. + +The reason the Internet concentrates attention is that it connects everyone in a big network. And networks are subject to powerful feedback loops. Since consumers increasingly both discover and consume content through information networks, their decisions are increasingly influenced by other people's decisions. These feedback loops amplify the popularity of a small number of choices-hits. + +The net result of these opposing forces-fragmentation and concentration-is that media consumption, and culture more broadly, is persistently, and in some cases, increasingly observing power-law like distributions. That means that few TV shows, movies, songs, books, video games, journal articles, newsletters, short form videos and tweets will be wildly popular, while the vast (vast, vast, vast...) majority will be hardly consumed at all. + +## What is a Power Law? + +One of the first statistical concepts we are taught in school, right after mean, median and mode, is the "bell curve," aka the normal or Gaussian distribution. The intuition behind a normal distribution is that if you have enough random independent observations most observations will be relatively close to the average (or mean) and equally distributed on either side of it. Many independent natural phenomena approximate this distribution, especially when the extremes are bounded, like height, weight, test scores or rolling two six-sided dice. + +Figure 2. Normal and Power Law Distributions + + + +## 4/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +Power law distributions, by contrast, look very different. A power law simply means that the dependent variable is a “power” of the independent variable. For instance, the volume of a cube is a “power” of the length of the sides, because volume increases 3 units for each 1 unit in length. Generally, they can be expressed as: + +y = ax + +In a power law probability distribution, the exponent is negative, which results in a downward sloping curve (as illustrated crudely in Figure 2). As shown, power law distributions are characterized by a large number of very small observations and a small number of very large observations. + +There are plenty of places to explore the technical differences between a normal and power law distribution, including the excellent book [Networks, Crowds and Markets](http://www.cs.cornell.edu/home/kleinber/networks-book/), available for free here (see Chapter 18). + +For our purposes, the main point of this comparison is shown in the graph furthest to the right in Figure 2, which superimposes a power law distribution over a normal distribution: the likelihood of both extremely small and extremely large observations is much greater in the former than the latter. + +The main point: in a power law, both extremely small and extremely large observations are much more common. + +Perhaps the best way of thinking about these differences is a framework popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan. Think of the world of normal distributions as Mediocristan-a place where everything hovers somewhere around the average and the world of power-law distributions as Extremistan-a place where seemingly extreme things happen much more often. + +## Why Do Power Laws Occur in Culture? Networks + +As mentioned above, the idea that the Internet causes media fragmentation is intuitive but the idea that it also amplifies hits is not. Let's explore why that happens. + +Power laws (or, strictly speaking, power-law like distributions) show up in a lot of places: the incidence of earthquakes, the occurrence of words in any given publication (called Zipf's Law), the population of cities, metabolic scaling among mammals and a whole lot else. + +The mechanisms behind these power laws are not always clear (there is debate whether power laws are an inherent property of complex systems). But power laws are common in networks because network phenomena tend to be dependent, meaning there are feedback loops. Each node on the network influences, and is influenced by, other nodes. + +## 5/20 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +Popularity follows power-law like distributions because people's choices are subject to +feedback loops. + +This is particularly true for popularity. Power-law like distributions are everywhere in +media, as shown in this [article](https://archive.ph/o/0cYxS/https://stratechery.com/2023/power-laws-in-culture/) by Michael Tauberg. + +## Social Signals Influence Our Choices + +So, if networks tend to amplify hits because people often base their choices on what +they see other people do, the next question is: why? For two reasons: 1) it is often +rational to assume that other people's choices contain valuable information; and 2) +people care what others think of them. + +These are two distinct phenomena, what social scientists call “information cascades” +and "reputational cascades." + +* Information cascades. What do you do when you have to make a choice and have + incomplete information? It probably depends on how hard it is to determine the + quality of your options yourself (“search costs”), as well as the consequences + (including the reversibility) of making a bad choice (“opportunity costs”). Search + costs are a function both of the number of choices and the time required to + ascertain the quality of each choice. For instance, it is easy to quickly judge + quality when scrolling TikTok and hard when looking for the next multi-season + TV series. The opportunity cost of listening to the first 8 seconds of a + recommended song on Spotify is very different than getting a babysitter and going + to the movies. When search and opportunity costs are low, you may choose to + figure it out yourself. When they are high and you can see what other people have + done, it is reasonable to presume that (collectively) other people have more + information than you do and base your decisions on theirs. When many people do + this successively, it results in something called an "information cascade." This is + sometimes called cumulative advantage, preferential attachment or the “rich-get- + richer effect," whereby popular things tend to get more popular and unpopular + things stay unpopular. + +Taking signals from the network is a rational choice when confronted with high search and +opportunity costs. + +* Social conformity and reputational cascades. When you can see people's choices + and they can see yours, you may conform, consciously or subconsciously. As a + generality, we all feel pressure to conform, as was corroborated by famous social + science experiments in the 1950s-1970s, such as those conducted by Solomon + Asch. Alternatively, you may intentionally choose to follow the group's decisions + because you want to signal your allegiance and worthiness of belonging, or what is + called a reputational cascade. + +# 6/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +(There is also a third reason that people are often influenced by other's choices that +I'm overlooking: network effects. Sometimes people follow the crowd because they +benefit directly from a larger network. This may be a significant factor for fax +machines, operating systems or electric vehicles, but probably has less relevance in +culture. The direct benefits of more developers building apps for Windows or more +Tesla rapid-charging stations are clear; the network effects from a lot of people +watching your favorite TV show or listening to your favorite band are questionable +and may actually be a drawback for people who believe they have unique taste.) + +## Social Signals are Becoming More Important + +So, people are more likely to be influenced by what other people do when: 1) there are +a lot of choices; and 2) it is easy to observe what other people do. + +Over the last two decades, the conditions that lead to cascades have become more prevalent: +choice has exploded and it is far easier to observe others' actions and to be observed. + +Both of those conditions have increased dramatically in the last few decades: + +* The amount of content available has exploded, making search costs + astronomical and increasing opportunity costs. It is obvious that more choice + means higher search costs. It also means higher opportunity costs, because when + you make a choice today there are many more things you are choosing not to do. +* Owing to online networks, people are much more likely to be influenced + (directly and indirectly) by what other people choose. Many people explicitly + outsource their content curation to their friends (by relying on the Facebook + newsfeed), their hand-selected panel of “experts” (on their Twitter timeline) or + their favorite celebrities or influencers (on Instagram). But sometimes we forget + that elements of social networking are embedded in non-social networking + applications too. Go to the Apple app store, Amazon, OpenTable, or even look for + “restaurants near me" on Google Maps-in every case, you will probably be + influenced by other people's opinions. Most recommendation algorithms also rely + in part on collaborative filtering, discussed more below, which is based on the + collective choices of a group or subgroup. When you accept an algorithm's + recommendation you are often indirectly influenced by what other people choose, + whether you know it or not. + +Taken together, this means that today, people are much more likely to base their +choices on other people's decisions. This explains the paradox described at the +beginning: while the Internet fragments attention, it also causes cascades that +concentrate attention. + +## Recommendation Engines Can Help or Hurt + +Confronted with so much choice, consumers don't only depend on the organic social +signals they receive from the network, they also rely (to varying degrees, depending on +the person and type of media) on recommendation systems. Those systems may +amplify or dampen the influence of the network, depending on how they are +engineered. + +# 7/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +Recommendation algorithms are based on two primary types of models: collaborative +filtering and content models. In the former, the algorithm recommends content or +products based on what other people have chosen. In the latter, recommendations are +based on certain attributes of the content or products themselves. + +Recommendation systems can amplify or dampen social signals, depending on how +they're built. + +It is common for these algorithms to include elements of both models. For instance, in +its recommendation system Netflix incorporates all kinds of metadata associated with +each content asset (director, actors, genre, age rating, tone) and popularity (viewership, +completion rates and ratings) among cohorts it believes are similar to the customer, as +well as prior viewing behavior by the customer (device, time of day, time spent +viewing). TikTok similarly bases its algorithm on user behavior, collaborative filtering +and specific content attributes, among other things. By contrast, Pandora's +recommendation system is uncommon because it is based solely on content attributes, +not on any collaborative filtering. + +## A Simple Framework + +As mentioned, power-law like distributions are ubiquitous in media, but to varying +degrees. Synthesizing the last two sections, I'll propose a few rules of thumb for +predicting when distributions will be more, or less, extreme: + +* Higher search costs = more extreme distributions (because people need to rely + more heavily on social signals) +* Higher opportunity costs = more extreme distributions (also because people are + more likely to seek out social signals before committing) +* Recommendation systems that lean heavily toward collaborative filtering = more + extreme distributions (because the algorithm amplifies the social signals) + +## A Little Math + +How do we know a popularity distribution is a power law and how do we measure +"extreme?" + +Answering those requires a little more math. As shown above, the general +mathematical expression of a power law looks like this: + +y = ax + +In a pure power law, c is a constant, which can be thought of a scaling factor. In a +power law distribution, c is also negative, which is why the curve is downward sloping. +It can be hard to tell whether this scaling factor is constant just by looking-and +therefore whether it is really a power law. An easier way is to convert the data to a log- +log plot and determine whether the resulting relationship is linear. To see why, we +take the log of both sides of the equation above: + +# 8/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro +log (y) = log (a) + c log (x) + +That is a linear function, equivalent to y = b + mx. In other words, if we really have a +power law (or something power-law like), the log-log plot should look like a straight +line, where the slope is c and, the larger (or more negative) the value of c, the more +"extreme" it is. We can also test how straight it is, and therefore whether the scaling +factor is really a constant, by calculating the r². + +Figure 3. Popularity Distributions Usually Show Value as a Function of Probability (or Rank) + +The image shows two graphs. The first graph has "Value" on the x-axis and "Probability of value" on the y-axis. The graph shows a curve that starts high on the y-axis and decreases as it moves to the right on the x-axis. The second graph has "Probability of value" on the x-axis and "Value" on the y-axis. The graph shows a curve that starts high on the y-axis and decreases as it moves to the right on the x-axis. The graph is labeled with "The 'head'" and "The 'tail'". + +## A Few Examples (and Caveats) + +Below, I look at some representative time series of consumption distribution for a few +media: box office, TV series on Netflix, streams on Spotify and Patreon creators. + +(One quick note: In the power law distribution above in Figure 2, the Y-axis is +probability and X-axis is value to better compare normal and power law distributions. A +more intuitive and common way to discuss popularity distributions is to flip the axes +so that the Y-axis is the value and the X-axis is the probability, which is also a power +law (Figure 3). This shows that only a handful of observations will be extremely large +(what is colloquially called the “head”) and a vast number will be very small (the “tail”). +This is how I discuss popularity distributions below.) + +This analysis is imperfect, for a few reasons. I would like to have longer time series +than I show here (box office is great, at ~20 years, but it would be great to have 20 years +of music data too). Also, the data for Spotify and Patreon only show the distribution of +consumption at the head of the curve. Since power laws are self-similar (or "scale +invariant"), in theory the distribution at the head of the curve is representative of the +entire distribution, but if these are not pure power laws that may not be the case. + +Putting those aside, all four of these examples show persistently extreme distributions +that closely approximate power laws. + +## Box Office + +Relative to most other media, moviegoers face very few choices but extraordinarily +high opportunity costs. Not surprisingly, the relative distribution of consumption has +become even more concentrated in the top hits in recent years. Figure 4 shows the +distribution of total U.S. box office in 2000, 2010, 2019 and 2022 and the same data on a +log-log basis. As shown by the r-squared values in the log-log plots, these are close to + +# 9/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro +power law distributions. As also shown, over that time period the distribution has +gotten increasingly extreme (i.e., the slope on the log-log plots has gotten increasingly +negative); on a relative basis, the biggest hits are bigger than ever. + +Figure 4. Distribution of Box Office Getting More Extreme + +The image shows two graphs related to the distribution of total US box office revenue. + +The first graph, titled "DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL US BOX OFFICE," displays the percentage of total US box office revenue against release rank for the years 2000, 2010, 2019, and 2022. The graph shows that the top-ranked movies account for a larger percentage of the total box office revenue in more recent years. + +The second graph, titled "DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL US BOX OFFICE LOG-LOG," presents the same data on a log-log scale. This transformation helps to visualize the power-law distribution of box office revenue. The graph includes R² and Slope values for each year, indicating the goodness of fit of the power-law model. The R² values are close to 1, suggesting a strong fit, and the slopes are negative, indicating a decreasing trend. + +Source: Box Office Mojo, Author analysis. + +## Netflix TV Series + +In TV, the search and opportunity costs of finding and committing to a TV series are +pretty high, which should lead to relatively extreme distributions. But it's tough to test +shifts in popularity distributions over time for all of TV because there is no good +cross-platform (linear and streaming) measurement. And although Nielsen now +provides streaming ratings, it's only been doing so for a couple of years. + +The best data I could find was from the good people at Parrot Analytics, who provided +me a time series of global demand for Netflix original series. Parrot's demand metric + +# 10/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM + +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +incorporates a variety of inputs (social, fan and critic ratings, piracy, wikis, blogs, etc.) +to gauge the popularity of each series and movie on each streaming service. + +The most remarkable takeaway from this data is that it remains relatively skewed and +is becoming more power-law like over time despite Netflix's big international push +over this timeframe. As noted, this is global demand and measures a period when +Netflix added about 100 million subscribers, almost all of which were international, +and its annual cash content spend increased from $13 billion to $17 billion, much of +which was local content. + +Despite its growth and increased spend internationally, as shown in Figure 5, globally +demand remains concentrated in relatively few titles. Note that in 2018, 2020 and 2022, +the top 10% of originals represented ~95%, 85% and 75% of all global demand on +Netflix, respectively. + +Figure 5. Demand for Netflix Series Has Remained Skewed Despite Big International +Expansion + +The image shows two line graphs related to the distribution of global demand among the top 250 series on Netflix. The first graph shows the distribution on a linear scale, while the second graph shows the distribution on a log-log scale. Both graphs plot data for the years 2018, 2020, and 2022. The log-log graph also includes R-squared values and slopes for each year. The graphs illustrate how demand is concentrated among a few top series, and how this concentration has changed over time. + +Note: Parrot Analytics' demand metric incorporates a variety of inputs to measure the +popularity of series and movies. Source: Parrot Analytics, Author analysis. + +Spotify Streams + +Music is an interesting case because there are factors working in both directions. On +the one hand, with so much choice (Spotify has over 80 million tracks and 100,000 new +songs uploaded every day), listeners use both social signals and recommendation +engines to discover new music. And most streaming services' recommendation + +[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS) + +11/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM + +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +engines rely heavily on collaborative filtering (see a description of Spotify's +recommendation engine here). This implies a relatively extreme distribution. + +On the other hand, the search costs and opportunity cost of trying a new song are very +low and easily reversed (you can easily skip to the next song). Both of those factors +support a broader dispersion of consumption. + +The result is that consumption in the head is extremely skewed toward the biggest +hits, but also that more aggregate consumption is shifting into the tail. By implication, +the "middle" is even skinnier than you would see in a pure power law. + +Figure 6 shows the distribution of consumption among all the songs that appeared in +Spotify's Global Top 200 Weekly at least once, in both 2017 and 2022 (and the same +data on a log-log basis). In both years, that was about 1,000 songs. (This is the very +head of the curve-it's the top 1,000 songs out of 80 million, or the top 0.001%.) As +illustrated by the slope on the log-log plots, the distribution is very extreme, even +more so than box office. As is also evident, the slope is not constant; it becomes more +negative as you move past the 100th most popular song. That means the biggest hits +are even bigger on a relative basis and even more consumption is occurring in the tail +than would occur in a true power law. + +Figure 6. The Head of the Spotify Curve Remains Extreme... + +The image shows two line graphs related to the distribution of top songs on Spotify. The first graph shows the percentage of total streams among songs appearing in the weekly chart of top 200 songs globally, plotted against song rank. The second graph shows the same data on a log-log scale. Both graphs plot data for the years 2017 and 2022. The log-log graph also includes R-squared values and slopes for each year. The graphs illustrate how consumption is skewed towards the top songs, and how this skewness has changed over time. + +[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS) + +12/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM + +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +Source: Spotify, Author analysis. + +The idea that more consumption is shifting to the tail is corroborated by aggregate +consumption data. As shown in Figure 7, based on Spotify's reporting, the three +majors (Universal, Sony and Warner Music) and Merlin (a partnership of independent +labels) represented 77% of total streams in 2021, down 10 percentage points from 2017. + +Figure 7. ...But More Consumption is Also Shifting to the Tail + +The image is a bar graph showing the combined distribution market share of annual Spotify plays for Universal Music, Sony Music, Warner Music, and Merlin (%). The graph displays data from 2017 to 2021, with the market share decreasing from 87% in 2017 to 77% in 2021. + +Source: Spotify company reports, via Music Business Worldwide. + +Patreon Creators + +Patreon provides a backend solution for creators to sell subscriptions, with more than +250,000 creators on the platform and 13 million patrons. It is also an interesting +example because consumption distribution is unaffected by recommendation +algorithms. While Patreon.com features a handful of creators on its landing page, few +consumers visit it. They primarily navigate directly to creators' Patreon pages from +wherever their work is featured, such as YouTube, Apple podcasts or their websites. + +With no amplifying effect from recommendation algorithms, it should show a slightly +less skewed distribution than some other examples. Figure 8 shows the distribution of +the top 1,000 creators at the end of both 2016 and 2022 and the log-log data. Again, this +is the head of the curve, or 0.4% of creators in 2022. As shown, the distribution tracks +almost exactly as a power law, but the slope is less extreme than the prior examples. + +Figure 8. The Creator Economy Observes Power Laws Too + +[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS) + +13/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM + +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +The image shows two line graphs related to the distribution of patrons to top creators on Patreon. The first graph shows the distribution on a linear scale, while the second graph shows the distribution on a log-log scale. Both graphs plot data for the years 2016 and 2022. The log-log graph also includes R-squared values and slopes for each year. The graphs illustrate how patrons are distributed among the top creators, and how this distribution has changed over time. + +Source: Graphtreon, Author analysis. + +So What? Understanding the Pervasive Implications of +Power Laws + +As my 11th grade history teacher Mr. Conroy used to say "So what?" The persistence +of these highly skewed consumption distributions has very important practical +implications for the media business and culture more broadly. + +Hits Will Persist in an Infinite Content World + +As mentioned at the top, lately I have been writing about the inevitability of Infinite +TV as the quality distinction between professional and independent/creator content +blurs. + +One of the questions I got back was: will there still be hits in such a world? + +The short answer: there will likely always be hits, if not even larger ones. As described +above, the more choice, the more consumers need to rely on social signals and +recommendation engines (which in turn rely on social signals) to manage search costs. +This is already evident in music. High production value tools have been democratized, +leading to a practically infinite amount of high production value music. But massive +hits persist. + +[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS) + +14/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM + +Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +OK, but can we really use the word "always"? Let's go really far out. What if eventually +generative Al is able to create distinct personalized content for each individual? In a +recent post about generative AI, Sequoia posited that by 2030, movies will be +"personalized dreams” (Figure 9). + +Figure 9. Will All Content be “Personalized Dreams"? + +The image is a table that outlines the evolution of AI capabilities in content creation across different media types (text, code, images, video/3D/gaming) from pre-2020 to a projected 2030. It shows a progression from basic tasks like spam detection and auto-complete to advanced capabilities like generating final drafts better than professional writers and developers, and ultimately, personalized video games and movies by 2030. + +Source: Sequoia. + +This may not be as far fetched as it sounds, at least technologically. Let's say that by +2035 we are all wearing AR glasses, which record data about us that put Google and +Facebook to shame. They track our gaze, including the length of time we linger on +anything and the dilation of our pupils, respiration and heart rate (h/t Rony Abovitz). +They might know more about us than we know ourselves. Let's go even further. +Perhaps we'll wear devices that record brain activity as we sleep and reconstruct the +imagery from our dreams. Sound crazy? Researchers in Japan just showed that this is +already possible. + +There is no way to disprove the concept of individualized content. But just because it +might be technically possible doesn't mean it will be popular. It runs counter to two +fundamental human needs: 1) People want agency (or at least the appearance of +agency) in their choices-they don't want to be reduced to an algorithm. (Which is +why Netflix recently removed its "Surprise Me" button.) 2) More important, we are +ultimately social animals and have a need to coalesce around common experiences. As +I discussed in another recent essay, for many people, those shared experiences are +entertainment (sports, music, gaming, movies, TV shows). At a time when loneliness is +considered a public health crisis, it is hard to imagine that we would forego shared +experiences and retreat to lonely theaters of one. + +Bye, Bye Middle + +If the biggest hits are as big as ever-or bigger—and the tail is also getting bigger, +another implication is that the middle is going away. + +What's the middle? Consider the middle any content that attracted attention (and +economics) solely because it benefited from formerly scarce distribution: local +newspapers largely comprising syndicated news, TV stations with weak local +coverage, radio stations without distinctive on-air personalities, middling general +entertainment cable networks populated with second-tier reruns or inexpensive reality +programming, mid-budget me-too theatrical releases, etc. It's hard to define "the + +[https://archive.ph/0cYxS](https://archive.ph/0cYxS) + +15/20 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +middle" with precision, but it's safe to say that historically the middle has collectively +generated a substantial proportion of profits in every media vertical. + +The dwindling middle has generated a substantial portion of profits in every media vertical. + +## Hits Include a Big Dose of Luck + +Another important implication of this "power-lawing" is that hits are increasingly +random because of how information cascades work. To be clear, I'm not arguing that +all hits are random, but that luck is becoming more important. + +Hits are not completely random, but the role of luck is increasing. + +[Meta Comment: Link to archive.ph] +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +More than 15 years ago, researchers Matthew Salganik, Peter Dodds and Duncan +Watts conducted an experiment to determine the effect of social influence on content +choices. They split 14,000 subjects into nine groups, one "independent group" and +eight "social influence groups." All the subjects were invited to visit a website where +they were asked to rate 48 unknown songs by unknown bands. They were able to +download the songs if they chose. In the eight social influence groups, subjects could +see how many times each song had been downloaded by prior visitors from their +group; in the independent group, they couldn't. At the end, the researchers tallied the +popularity of the songs in each group. + +The major conclusions were twofold: 1) each of the nine groups had different rankings +of the songs (while some songs tended to be more popular and some songs were +consistently less popular, other than that the rankings were quite different); and 2) the +distribution of popularity within the social influence groups was more extreme than in +the independent group. The second conclusion supports the main point of this essay, +namely that the presence of social signals will cause the distribution of popularity to +be more skewed. (And keep in mind that in this experiment the only signal was the +number of previous downloads, so the participants were only subject to information +cascades, not pressure to conform or reputational cascades. In the real world, the +social signals are a lot stronger.) + +But let's think about the implications of the first conclusion, namely that each group +produced a different popularity ranking. It implies that hits require a high degree of +luck. + +To see why this happens, try out a thought experiment (borrowed from Michael +Mauboussin). Imagine a barrel with 1,000 balls in it, each of which is numbered 1-10, +and there are 100 of each number (100 #1s, 100 #2s, etc.). Also imagine you have 10 +urns, each marked 1-10. Now randomly pick 10 balls out of the barrel and, based on +the number marked on each, put each ball in its corresponding urn. Replace the 10 +balls you removed from the barrel with new balls, but this time the distribution of new +balls will be equivalent to the distribution of balls in the urns. (If there are two balls in +urn #2 and none in #3, then two of the new balls should be marked #2 and none should + +## 16/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +be marked #3.) Keep running the process, removing 10 balls from the barrel at random, +placing them in the corresponding urns, and adding new balls to the barrel based on +the distribution of balls in the urns. After you run this process for enough cycles, what +you find is that the urns with more balls are increasingly likely to have more balls +added each time. + +Or think of a real-world example: Amazon reviews. The Amazon algorithm places the +reviews with the most "helpful" votes at the top. Naturally, most people start at the top +and read just a few reviews. The first reviews written for a new book will appear at the +top of the page (for lack of many reviews). So, they are more likely to be read and +deemed helpful than subsequent reviews. This creates a positive feedback loop: they +are more likely to remain near the top of the page, making it likely that new visitors +will mark them as helpful, cementing their position at the top of the page. + +In a networked environment, hits are highly sensitive to initial conditions. + +[Meta Comment: Link to archive.ph] +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +This phenomenon (which above I referred to as the rich-get-richer effect, cumulative +advantage or preferential attachment) shows that in a networked environment +popularity is influenced by luck and highly sensitive to initial conditions. The balls +that happen to be selected first (or the reviews that are written first) have a much +higher likelihood of dominating. Even in a hypothetical world in which all content was +of equal quality there would still be massive, random hits. Was the success of +PewDiePie or Charlie Puth inevitable? Hard to say. + +As content consumption is increasingly affected by network dynamics, this means that +hits will become more unpredictable. And just as in the financial markets, higher +volatility means higher risk, and higher risk means lower returns. + +## Hits Can (and Will) Emerge from the Tail + +A corollary of the prior point is that hits can, and will, emerge from the tail. Again, +this is already evident in music. As I wrote in Infinite TV: + +[A]lmost all of the new breakout acts of the last few years-like The Weeknd, Billie +Eilish, Lil Uzi Vert, XXXTentacion, Bad Bunny, Post Malone, Migos and many +more-emerged from the tail of self-distributed content, not from A&R reps +hanging around at 2AM for the last act. + +Writing compelling fiction, composing a catchy pop song, conceiving innovative +gameplay or writing a great screenplay are extraordinarily rare talents. It is reasonable +to think that many of the people capable of doing these things, with persistence and +luck, are able to succeed through the traditional channels of content production and +win the support of the small handful of people who control resources at places like +HarperCollins, Republic Records, Blizzard or Universal Pictures. But how many +creative "lost Einsteins" are there who have fell through the cracks? Thousands? Tens +of Thousands? Hundreds of thousands? + +Just has occurred with the music labels, every traditional producer of any type of +content should be prepared to both discover talent that emerges from the tail and + +## 17/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +compete with it. + +## There's a Reason Every Movie Star Wears Tights + +If it sometimes feels like every movie is a prequel or sequel or about superheroes (or +both) and every new TV show is a spinoff or reboot, that's because a disproportionate +percentage of them are (as discussed in this article by Adam Mastroianni). + +[Meta Comment: Link to article] +this article + +The reasons often cited for this include entertainment companies' crass +commercialism, the death of creativity and the dumbing-down of the American +consumer, among others. But looking at this through the lens of the network dynamics +described in this essay suggests several other reinforcing reasons. Established IP +reduces risk because it: + +* Lowers consumer search costs. As discussed above, consumers are overwhelmed + by choice and the resulting high search costs. Well-known brands, talent and + franchises reduce those costs, making consumers less reliant on network signals. +* Benefits from a pre-existing community. As also discussed, consumers + sometimes choose content because of a desire to join a community or enhance + their standing within it. Established IP has established communities, increasing + the community's influence. + +Whether this is good or bad is a different question. There is a risk that major media +companies lean too heavily on established IP and all the innovative ideas instead +emerge from the tail. But there is a clear logic behind it. + +## Rents Will Likely Shift Even More Toward Top Talent + +The details of how talent is compensated in creative businesses can be extraordinarily +complicated and opaque. If you abstract it out, however, ultimately talent +compensation is a function of the underlying economic structure of the industries in +which they operate. + +At a time when there is both more transparency of performance data and greater +competition for superstars, a more extreme distribution of consumption will likely +shift even more bargaining power to the top talent. + +## No One is Policing the Algorithm + +Algorithms clearly influence the distribution of consumption and they will become +increasingly important. According to Spotify, 1/3 of new music discovery occurs +through algorithmic recommendation. Netflix says that 80% of watch time comes from +its recommendations and 20% from direct search (but it also concedes that "users tend +to come to the service with a specific show, movie or genre in mind"). All things equal, +the more choice, the more consumers will seek help in choosing, whether from the +organic social signals that emerge from the network or recommendation systems. + +Platforms have a strong incentive to surface the best recommendations. More usage +increases consumer affinity, improves retention and, for ad supported platforms, +increases revenue. But, at least on the margin, they may have other incentives. Spotify +and Netflix both have an incentive to reduce their reliance on their largest suppliers. +Both Spotify and TikTok disclose that “commercial considerations” influence their +recommendations. Not much can or will likely be done about this, but the opacity and + +## 18/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +importance of algorithms will become an increasingly important competitive +advantage for content aggregators over time. + +## The Creator Economy and Web3 Live in Extremistan Too + +Much has been written (including by me) about the rise of the creator economy and +platforms and tools that enable creators to connect directly with—and generate +revenue from-fans (not just Patreon, but Substack, OnlyFans, Cameo and many +others). Web3 promises an even more decisive step in that direction. Since web3 +applications are decentralized, data is not mediated by centralized servers and creators +retain ownership of their product. For many people, the greatest promise of web3 is to +redistribute power and value from centralized institutions to creators and users. + +While both the evolution of the creator economy and web3 should enable more +creators to make a living wage, redistribution should not be confused with equal +distribution, something I also discussed here. As shown in the popularity distributions +for Patreon creators above, as long as there are network dynamics, there will be power- +law like popularity distributions. + +## Earned Media is Increasingly Important + +Back to Salganik, Dodds and Watts for a moment. As mentioned, some of the subjects +were placed in an independent group that received no social signals at all. The +researchers used this group's popularity ranking of songs as a proxy for “quality." What +they found among the other groups was that the songs considered best by the +independent group rarely did poorly and the songs considered the worst rarely did +very well, but anything else could happen. + +Quality matters in popularity. Complete crap will fail. But, above some threshold of quality, +popularity is highly reliant on network dynamics. + +The implication is that, as any marketer would tell you, marketing matters. Quality +will not necessarily naturally rise to the top. The question is how to market. + +Marketers draw a distinction between paid, earned and owned media. Paid is +traditional advertising: TV, outdoor, print, radio, retail media, display, search and +social. Earned is PR and word-of-mouth, increasingly through influencers. And owned +is the brand's own marketing channels, such as its branded content, website, retail +outlets, catalogs, etc. Media companies tend to rely very heavily on paid media-think +of massive advertising campaigns to launch a new show or movie. As more content +discovery occurs through the network itself, the value of paid media is increasingly +diluted. It also becomes more important for marketers to understand what signals are +emerging organically and how to use both paid and earned media to amplify or +counter those signals. + +## We're Not in Kansas Anymore + +Almost 30 years since the IPO of Netscape, the media industry is still coming to grips +with the implications of the Internet. The reality that it fragments attention is +intuitive. The reasons why it also amplifies hits are less well understood. + +## 19/20 + +# 4/23/25, 6:53 PM Power Laws in Culture - The Mediator by Doug Shapiro + +For media companies, the implications of operating in a networked world are a mixed +bag, at best. The good news is that hits still matter and likely always will. The bad +news is just about everything else: the lucrative middle is being hollowed out; risk is +climbing; the tail is become more competitive for hits; bargaining power is shifting to +the top talent; content producers are increasingly at the mercy of curators' algorithms; +and paid media is being devalued. As consumers grapple with a growing tsunami of +options, these dynamics will become more pronounced. None of this will get easier. + +[Meta Comment: Social Media Icons] +D + +Previous + +Comments + +Write a comment... + +Share + +Next → + +Top +New Community + +Q + +No posts + +Ready for more? + +Type your email... +Subscribe + +[Meta Comment: Link to archive.ph] +https://archive.ph/0cYxS + +## 20/20 -- 2.45.2 From 088ea1d42f54a79fa357484395cc2b9c47f6b17e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:47:55 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 09/13] extract: shapiro-relentless-creator-economy Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.json | 43 +++++++++++++++++++ .../shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md | 23 +++++++++- 2 files changed, 65 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.json diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8aa10772 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.json @@ -0,0 +1,43 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "creator-and-corporate-media-are-zero-sum-because-total-time-is-stagnant.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "genai-reduces-creative-decisions-not-just-execution-cost-which-is-categorically-different-from-prior-tools.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "genai-as-general-purpose-technology-advances-faster-than-domain-specific-tools-because-breakthroughs-compound-across-modalities.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 3, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 6, + "rejected": 3, + "fixes_applied": [ + "creator-and-corporate-media-are-zero-sum-because-total-time-is-stagnant.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "creator-and-corporate-media-are-zero-sum-because-total-time-is-stagnant.md:stripped_wiki_link:two-phase-disruption-where-distribution-moats-fall-first-and", + "genai-reduces-creative-decisions-not-just-execution-cost-which-is-categorically-different-from-prior-tools.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "genai-reduces-creative-decisions-not-just-execution-cost-which-is-categorically-different-from-prior-tools.md:stripped_wiki_link:metis-is-practical-knowledge-that-can-only-be-acquired-throu", + "genai-as-general-purpose-technology-advances-faster-than-domain-specific-tools-because-breakthroughs-compound-across-modalities.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "genai-as-general-purpose-technology-advances-faster-than-domain-specific-tools-because-breakthroughs-compound-across-modalities.md:stripped_wiki_link:technology-advances-exponentially-but-coordination-mechanism" + ], + "rejections": [ + "creator-and-corporate-media-are-zero-sum-because-total-time-is-stagnant.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "genai-reduces-creative-decisions-not-just-execution-cost-which-is-categorically-different-from-prior-tools.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "genai-as-general-purpose-technology-advances-faster-than-domain-specific-tools-because-breakthroughs-compound-across-modalities.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-19" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md b/inbox/queue/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md index 824245ce..caf44595 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md +++ b/inbox/queue/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md @@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date_published: "2023-06-01" date_archived: "2025-04-23" archived_by: "clay" domain: "entertainment" -status: unprocessed +status: null-result claims_extracted: - "creator and corporate media economies are zero-sum because total media time is stagnant and every marginal hour shifts between them" +processed_by: leo +processed_date: 2026-03-19 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 3 claims, 3 rejected by validator" --- # 4/23/25, 6:54 PM The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy @@ -852,3 +856,20 @@ JAN 7 DOUG SHAPIRO https://archive.ph/wTgnR # 21/22 + + +## Key Facts +- Global M&E market grew at ~5% annually 2019-2023 (PwC/Omdia estimates) +- Creator media economy grew ~25% annually 2019-2023 (Shapiro estimate) +- Corporate media grew ~3% annually 2019-2023 (Shapiro estimate) +- Creator media economy was ~$250B globally in 2023 (~15% of total M&E) +- Creator media accounted for almost half of total M&E revenue growth 2019-2023 +- Social video represents ~1/4 of all video consumption time in U.S. (Maverix/Nielsen data) +- ~25% of Spotify streams are from artists not represented by majors or Merlin +- YouTube has 114 million channels and users upload ~250 million hours annually +- Spotify has 10 million+ total artists uploading ~37 million tracks per year (vs 225K professional/professionally-aspiring) +- Steam has 100,000 games vs 3,000 supported on Xbox +- Kodak estimated 80 billion photos taken in 2000; current estimates close to 2 trillion for 2023 (25x increase) +- 83% of TikTok users have posted a video (2021 study) vs ~4% of YouTube users who create +- Over 4 million podcasts exist today vs only a few thousand in 2004 +- Major labels and Merlin accounted for 74% of Spotify streams in 2023 -- 2.45.2 From 6d3218abe84202b9ad3f25131e5a540eabb011cd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:49:30 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 10/13] pipeline: archive 1 source(s) post-merge Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md | 854 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 854 insertions(+) create mode 100644 inbox/archive/general/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fb06ae9f --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md @@ -0,0 +1,854 @@ +--- +source_type: "article" +title: "The Relentless Inevitable March of the Creator Economy" +author: "Doug Shapiro" +url: "https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/the-relentless-inevitable-march" +date_published: "2023-06-01" +date_archived: "2025-04-23" +archived_by: "clay" +domain: "entertainment" +status: processed +claims_extracted: + - "creator and corporate media economies are zero-sum because total media time is stagnant and every marginal hour shifts between them" +--- +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +Thanks for reading The Mediator! Subscribe for +free to receive new posts and support my work. + +This post is sponsored by WSC Sports. + +The NBA, Top Rank, Euroleague and more are already working with the WSC Sports' Creators +Program to expand reach to fans and monetize archival and near live sports content. + +Fans are following influencers, so give influencers official tools to provide new perspectives and +storylines to their audiences. The Creators Program exposes your content to new potential fans +and generates additional revenues. + +WSC Sports' Creators Program provides a turnkey solution for rights holders by offering: + +* Full rights holder control over content +* Options for creator access and types of accessible content +* Performance metrics and valuable data + +Reach out to WSC Sports to learn more. + +To contact me about sponsorship opportunities for The Mediator, reach me here. + +## Defining the Creator (Media) Economy + +Let's establish some definitions. + +There isn't a consensus definition of "creator." Sometimes creators are considered +synonymous with influencers. That's relatively narrow, because it confines the creator +economy mostly to Instagram, TikTok and YouTube. Sometimes creators are +considered those who distribute content online strictly to commercialize it. On a +recent episode of The Colin and Samir Show, Samir drew the distinction between a +creator and a creative: + +> ...a creator is someone with a distribution mind. They're thinking about what do I +make that's going to reach the most amount of people? They're an independent +media company....And they're trying to solve how they can get their content seen at +a large scale on platforms...A creative is working on the craft, right? They're +working on the skill set and they typically get hired to direct stuff or support other +people in making their thing. + +Figure 1. The Corporate Media Economy + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +3/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +The image is a diagram illustrating the corporate media economy. It shows a linear process starting with "IDEATION" and ending with "CONSUMPTION". The process includes steps such as "PRODUCTION", "MARKETING", "DISTRIBUTION", and "MONETIZATION". On the right side of the diagram, there are examples of creative roles (e.g., Writer, Musician, Director), producers/publishers (e.g., Music Label, Newspaper, TV and Film Studio), aggregators/distributors (e.g., Retailer, Streaming Service, Theater), and traditional intermediaries (e.g., Sony, Netflix, Disney+). The diagram visually represents the flow of content creation and distribution in the corporate media landscape. + +IDEATION +PRODUCTION +MARKETING +DISTRIBUTION +MONETIZATION +CREATIVE +Writer | Musician +Director | Actor | Producer +Makeup Artist | Designer +DP | Journalist +Developer | Photographer +Editor | Animator +VFX Artist +PRODUCER/ +PUBLISHER +Music Label +Newspaper +Magazine +Videogame Publisher +TV and Film Studio +CONSUMPTION +MONETIZATION +DISTRIBUTION +100000 +MARKETING +IDEATION +Writer | Musician +Director | Actor | Producer +Makeup Artist | Designer +DP | Journalist +Developer | Photographer +PRODUCTION +Editor | Animator +VFX Artist +CREATIVE +AGGREGATOR/ +DISTRIBUTOR +Retailer (electronic or +physical) | Streaming +Service | Theater +TV/Radio Station | Cable +Network | Cable +Systems/Satellite/Telco +TRADITIONAL INTERMEDIARIES +SONY +The WALT Disney Studios +ACTIVISION A NETFLIX tv+ +CONDÉ NAST +Disney+ +NBC UNIVERSAL The New York Times +VALVE +Paramount +UNIVERSAL +WARNER MUSIC GROUP +prime video +Discovery Turner +spectrum +iHeart Xfinity +RADIO +Nexstar +amazon +tv CINEMARK +Walmart +GameStop +CONSUMER + +Source: Author. + +Since I focus on the business of media, to me the most interesting distinction is +between traditional media, or what we could call corporate media, and creator media. +Let's define two, mutually-exclusive, economies: + +* The corporate media economy is the ecosystem of traditional content creation, +distribution and monetization, which usually entails institutional ownership, +centralized decision making, portfolio-level risk management and several intermediaries +between creative 1 and consumer who provide financing, marketing and distribution +(Figure 1). As shown in Figure 2, most of the household names in the media and +entertainment business are intermediaries. +* The creator media economy, as I'm defining it here, encompasses all other media +monetization. It is the ecosystem of content creation activities in +which independent creators create content on a self-directed basis, they have a direct +relationship with consumers, and this content is monetized. The passive voice in the +last clause signifies that the content is monetized by someone, even if not by the +creators themselves. (So, under this definition, everyone who posts anything that +generates revenue is a creator, even if it is Meta or X/Twitter who monetizes it, +not them.) (Figure 3.) A gray area is small independent teams, of, say, 50 people or +fewer. I put these in the creator category. Mr. Beast runs a full-fledged production +company, with multi-million dollar budgets, but for these purposes he is a creator. +2 + +Figure 3. The Creator Media Economy + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +4/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +The image is a diagram illustrating the creator media economy. It shows a linear process starting with "IDEATION" and ending with "CONSUMPTION". The process includes steps such as "PRODUCTION", "MARKETING", "DISTRIBUTION", and "MONETIZATION". On the left side of the diagram, there are examples of creator roles (e.g., Blogger, Singer, Musician, Comedian), and on the right side, there are enabling tools/platforms (e.g., Unity, Ableton, Instagram, YouTube, Spotify). The diagram visually represents the flow of content creation and distribution in the creator media landscape. + +IDEATION +PRODUCTION +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy +ENABLING TOOLS/PLATFORMS +Unity UNREAL +MARKETING +DISTRIBUTION +CREATOR +Blogger | Singer +Musician | Comedian +Actor | Game Developer +Influencer | Journalist +Photographer +Podcaster | Digital Artist +Video Creator +Streamer | Animator +IIII Ableton +Logic Pro +Instagram Tik Tok +DISCORD +► YouTube Spotify substack +MONETIZATION +CONSUMPTION +STEAM +CONSUMER +SOUNDCLOUD +PATREON + +Source: Author. + +The Relationship Between Corporate Media and Creator +Media is Zero Sum + +As I have written about before (like here and here), the overall media and +entertainment (M&E) market is not growing much globally, slightly less than the rate +of inflation (Figure 4). + +Figure 4. Globally, Media Isn't Growing on a Real Basis + +Value of the Global Entertainment and Media Market, +Nominal and Real + +$, in Trillions +$2.5 +$2.0 +$1.5 +$1.0 +$0.5 +$0.0 +2019 +2020 +2021 +2022 +2023 +2024 +2025 +2026 +2027 +2028 +Nominal +Real + +Note: Includes PwC estimates for “Consumer” and “Advertising,” but not “Connectivity." +Sources: PwC and Omdia, IMF, Author analysis. + +The reason is that time spent with media has stagnated in recent years. It grew with +the advent of mobile starting in 2008 and then had a COVID bump in 2020, but has +been flat or declined since (Figure 5). Since M&E revenue is derived by monetizing +consumer time and engagement, it is tough for the overall market to grow faster than +inflation if time spent is not growing. + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +5/22 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +Since M&E revenue is derived by monetizing consumer time and engagement, it is tough for +the overall market to grow if time spent is not. + +Figure 5. Time Spent is Not Growing Either + +The image is a line graph showing the average daily time spent with media by U.S. adults from 2008 to 2022. The y-axis represents time in hours and minutes, ranging from 0:00 to 14:24. The x-axis represents the years from 2008 to 2022. The graph includes several categories of media: Print, Radio, TV, PC, Mobile, and Other Connected Devices. The "Other Connected Devices" category shows the most significant growth over the period, reaching 13:11 in 2022. The other categories show varying degrees of change, with some declining and others remaining relatively stable. + +Source: eMarketer, April 2022. + +As mentioned, my intention is that these two economies are mutually exclusive and +cumulatively exhaustive (or MECE, as they say in consulting land). Every dollar of end- +market M&E revenue is either one or the other. As there is only one pool of consumer +time, the relationship between the corporate and creator media economies is largely +zero sum. The growth in the latter mostly comes at the expense of the former. + +Creators Generate Revenue on a Lot of Platforms + +Under my definition above, creators' work is monetized (there's the passive voice +again) on a wide variety of outlets and platforms. These include: + +* Social Networking (Meta, YouTube, Douyin, TikTok, Kuashiou, Snap, Pinterest, X, + Bilibili, Weibo, VK, etc.) +* Patronage/Community (OnlyFans, Patreon, Discord, etc.) +* Gaming (Mobile Gaming, Steam, Epic, Roblox) +* Livestreaming (Twitch, Bigo Live, Huya, DouYu) +* Music (Spotify, Apple Music, Soundcloud, Bandcamp, etc.) +* Podcasting +* Influencer Marketing +* Writing (Substack, Medium, Ghost, Beehiiv, etc.) + +The proportion of total revenue on these outlets that is attributable to creators can +range from very little to all of it. + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +6/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +For instance, in gaming, a relatively small proportion of mobile game (iOS and Google +Play) revenue is attributable to independent developers (I estimate ~5-10%), slightly +more for Epic, slightly more for Steam, and, for Roblox, almost all revenue is +attributable to independent developers (other than the few games that Roblox creates +itself). In music, Spotify reported that the major labels and Merlin accounted for 74% +of streams last year, so we can attribute ~25% of revenue to independent and individual +creators, but almost all of the revenue on Bandcamp likely comes from creators. On +social networking and patronage platforms like Patreon, the majority or virtually all of +the revenue is attributable to creators. Likewise, influencer marketing represents the +sponsorship fees paid by brands directly to influencers and so is also 100% attributable +to creators. This continuum of creator attribution can be seen in Figure 6. + +Figure 6. The Proportion of Revenue Attributable to Creators Varies Widely + +The image is a bar graph showing the proportion of platform revenue attributable to creators for various platforms. The y-axis represents the percentage, ranging from 0% to 100%. The x-axis lists different platforms, including Mobile Gaming (Google Play & iOS), Steam, Spotify, Discord, Pinterest, Podcasts, Epic Games, Apple Music, Meta Platforms (Facebook & Instagram), X/Twitter, YouTube Premium, Weibo, YouTube (Advertising), Snap, VK (VKontakte), Huya, DouYu, Tik Tok, Douyin, Kuaishou, Bilibili, Bigo Live, SoundCloud, Twitch, Bandcamp, Roblox, Influencer Marketing, OnlyFans, Patreon, Substack, and Medium. The bars vary in height, indicating the different proportions of revenue attributable to creators for each platform. For example, Influencer Marketing, OnlyFans, Patreon, and Roblox have bars reaching 100%, while Mobile Gaming (Google Play & iOS) has a very low percentage. + +Source: Company reports, Author estimates. + +How Big is It? + +In Figure 7, I show my bottoms-up estimate of the aggregate end-market revenue of +the creator media economy, i.e., all advertising, subscription and transactional revenue +attributable to creator content, globally. I derived this by applying the proportions in +Figure 6 to the reported or estimated revenue for each outlet. As shown, I calculate +that total creator media economy revenue was a little shy of $250 billion last year. + +Figure 7. The Creator Media Economy Approached $250 Billion Globally Last Year + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +7/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +The image is a stacked bar graph showing the creator media economy revenue from 2019 to 2023. The y-axis represents the revenue in billions of dollars. The x-axis represents the years from 2019 to 2023. The graph is divided into several categories: Social Networking (Meta, YT (Ad and Premium), Douyin, Tik Tok, Kuashiou, Snap, Pinterest, X, Bilibili, Weibo, VK, etc.), Influencer Marketing, Patronage/Community (OnlyFans, Patreon, Discord, etc.), Gaming (Mobile Gaming, Steam, Epic, Roblox), Livestreaming (Twitch, Bigo Live, Huya, DouYu), Music (Spotify, Apple Music, Soundcloud, Bandcamp, etc.), Podcasting, Writing (Substack, Medium, Ghost, Beehiv, etc.), and Other. The total revenue increases over the years, with Social Networking being the largest contributor. + +estimates that the total M&E has grown at 5% annually over the past four years, I +estimate that the creator media economy has grown ~25% per year and corporate +media has grown at 3%. So, although creator media is a relatively small portion of the +total M&E market, it has accounted for almost half the growth. + +The creator media economy has accounted for about half of total M&E revenue growth over +the last four years. + +Figure 8. The Creator Media Economy is ~15% of Global M&E and Half its Growth + +The image is a combination of a bar graph and a line graph showing the global corporate media vs. creator media revenue from 2019 to 2023. The left y-axis represents the revenue in billions of dollars, and the right y-axis represents the percentage. The x-axis represents the years from 2019 to 2023. The bar graph shows the revenue for the Creator Media Economy and the Corporate Media Economy. The line graph shows the Creator Economy % of Total Media Economy. The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the Creator Media Economy is highlighted as 26%, while the CAGR for the Corporate Media Economy is 3%. The Creator Economy % of Total Media Economy is around 15% in 2023. + +Note: Global M&E includes PwC estimates for “Consumer” and “Advertising,” but not +"Connectivity." Source: Company reports, PwC and Omdia, eMarketer, Statista, Sacra, Wall +Street Zen, Fast Company, Video Game Insights, MoffettNathanson, Influencer Marketing +Hub, CB Insights, Music Business Worldwide, Author estimates. + +The Creator/Independent Media Economy Will Inevitably +Keep Taking Share + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +8/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +A simple math exercise shows how much larger and relatively more important the +creator media economy will be by the end of the decade, if it keeps growing anywhere +close to its recent pace. 3 Presuming that the total M&E market grows in line with the +PwC and Omdia estimate of ~4% through the end of the decade, then: + +* If the creator media economy grows at 10% annually, by 2030 it will be $460 billion + and 20% of the M&E market; +* If it grows at 15% growth annually it would reach $630 billion and exceed 25% of + the market; +* And, at 20% annual growth it would approach $850 billion and exceed 35% of the + market. + +Figure 9 shows the mid case, 15% annual growth. + +Figure 9. The Creator Media Economy Could Easily Reach ~25% of Global M&E by the End +of the Decade + +The image is a combination of a bar graph and a line graph showing the global corporate media vs. creator media revenue from 2019 to 2030 (estimated). The left y-axis represents the revenue in billions of dollars, and the right y-axis represents the percentage. The x-axis represents the years from 2019 to 2030. The bar graph shows the revenue for the Creator Media Economy and the Corporate Media Economy. The line graph shows the Creator Economy % of Total Media Economy. The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the period 2023-2030 is 4%. The Creator Economy % of Total Media Economy is estimated to reach around 25% by 2030. + +Note: Global M&E includes PwC estimates for “Consumer” and “Advertising,” but not +“Connectivity.” Source: Company reports, PwC and Omdia, eMarketer, Statista, Sacra, Wall +Street Zen, Fast Company, Video Game Insights, MoffettNathanson, Influencer Marketing +Hub, CB Insights, Music Business Worldwide, Author estimates. + +Since no one likes wishy washy, let's go with a point estimate: I forecast that the +creator media economy will more than double by the end of the decade, exceeding +$600 billion and 25% of the entire M&E market. + +Powerful technological, cultural and demographic trends are tailwinds for the creator +economy. + +But there are a whole host of reasons-powerful technological, cultural, demographic +and economic trends-why it could grow even faster than that. Let's walk through +them. + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +9/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +1. The Volume of Creator Content Will Keep Growing Fast +(Even Without GenAl) + +There is already a vast amount of creator/independent content. + +A few examples to make the point are shown in Figure 10. Consider: 20,000 times as +much video is uploaded to YouTube each year as is produced by Hollywood (in other +words, the equivalent of Hollywood's annual output is uploaded every ~30 minutes, +24/7); 98% of artists on Spotify are hobbyists and they upload ~100,000 tracks per day; +there are more than 30x as many games on Steam as are supported by Xbox (and it is +set to add 17,000 new games this year). + +Still, this gulf between the amount of creator content and “corporate” content will +undoubtedly widen. + +Figure 10. Some Examples of the Relative Scale of Creator Content + +| | Traditional +The image is a table describing the relative scale of creator content. The table has two columns, "Traditional" and "New," and three rows, "TV and Film," "Music," and "Games." The "Traditional" column provides information about the traditional media industry, such as the number of hours of TV and film produced by Hollywood annually. The "New" column provides information about the amount of content uploaded by users to platforms like YouTube, Spotify, and Steam. The table highlights the significant difference in scale between traditional media and creator content. + +* TV and Film: Hollywood produces about 15,000 hours of TV and film annually in the U.S. Users upload ~250 million hours of video to YouTube annually, across 114 million channels. +* Music: There are 225,000 professional and "professionally-aspiring" musicians on Spotify, uploading about 5 million tracks per year. There are 10 million+ total artists on Spotify, uploading roughly 37 million tracks per year. +* Games: There are 3,000 games supported on Xbox. There are 100,000 games on Steam and ~500,000 games on the iOS app store. + +Source: YouTube upfront May 2019, Tim Queen, Spotify 4Q21 earnings release, Spotify +"Loud&Clear" Top Takeaways 2023, Wikipedia, Steam, Business of Apps, Author estimates. + +Part of the reason is that the more accessible it is to create, the more people create. Without +probing the psychological or evolutionary roots of it, it is clear that humans have an +innate desire to create. Closer to the bottom of Maslow's hierarchy than the top, +creativity emerges spontaneously in children (until it is wrung out of most of us by +society, criticism or something else); throughout history, every known culture has +produced art, music and stories; and people create art in the most extreme hardship, in +prison, during war, and in dire poverty. + +As evidence of this innate need, people create more when creation is more accessible. + +The empirical evidence shows that people make more when creation is more +accessible. Some examples: + +* While Kodak estimated that 80 billion photos were taken in 2000, current + estimates are close to 2 trillion for this year, a more than 20-fold increase— + obviously driven by the current constant availability of cameras. +* YouTube has 2.7 billion MAUs and an estimated 114 million channels. Even if + each of these channels is run by a discrete user and all of these channels are active + (neither of which is true), that means about 4% of users also create. By contrast, + TikTok makes creation much easier. It has a camera function in the app and offers + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +10/22 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +* in-app editing tools, filters, music libraries, text overlays, stitches, etc. According to a 2021 study by TikTok, 83% of users have posted a video. +* In 2004, there were only a few thousand podcasts. Today, thanks to tools like Riverside FM, Zencastr, cheap webcams, high-quality mics and the like, there are currently over 4 million. + +Through the natural progression of software development and the move toward no- code/low-code, creation tools will undoubtedly keep getting more user friendly: better and easier video editing tools; music sample and beat marketplaces and collaboration tools; no-code/low-code game development on UGC gaming platforms, etc. But the most significant innovation is likely to be generative AI (GenAI). + +## 2. GenAl Will Trigger a Tsunami of Creator Content + +If I were to distill the last couple of years of my writing into one sentence, it would be this: the last two decades in media were defined by the disruption of content distribution, facilitated by the internet, the next decade will be defined by the disruption of content creation, enabled by GenAI. + +It not controversial to write that GenAI will result in a lot more content, but let's tease apart the two key reasons. + +Prior innovations in content creation technology have mostly reduced the cost for humans to execute creative decisions. GenAI reduces the number of creative decisions. + +### GenAl Automates Creative Decisions + +Prior innovations in content creation technology have mostly made it easier and cheaper for humans to execute creative decisions. But they have not materially reduced the number of creative decisions. GenAI, in contrast, can automate creative decisions. Humans can decide what proportion of creative decisions they delegate to AI, anywhere from almost all of them to relatively few. (Whether the output in the former case will be any good is a different question.) But even when there is substantial human direction and oversight, it can automate a lot of creative decisions, dramatically speeding the creative process. (See GenAI is Foremost a Creative Tool for a more detailed discussion.) + +### As a General Purpose Technology, GenAl is Advancing Incredibly Fast + +GenAI is clearly moving at a blistering pace. One of the key reasons this is happening is because it is a general purpose technology (GPT). + +Most of the innovations in content creation over the last 5-10 years have been medium or domain-specific: ubiquitous cameras on mobile phones; cheaper in-home production equipment, like microphones; digital audio workstation (DAWS) software; free gaming engines for small developers from Epic and Unity; inexpensive and easy-to-use photo and video editing tools, etc. Advances in one domain didn't necessarily benefit others. DAWs didn't help anyone make videos faster. + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +11/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +Just as bits were a new atomic unit for the distribution of information goods, tokens are a new atomic unit for the creation of information goods—text, audio, images, video and more. + +GenAI, like the internet, is a GPT. And just as bits were a new atomic unit for the distribution of information goods, tokens are a new atomic unit for the creation of information goods-text, audio, images, video and more. + +It is hard to overstate the significance of the universality of tokens. + +It is hard to overstate the significance of the universality of tokens. GPTs tend to advance much faster than narrow purpose technologies for many reasons: since they have such broad applicability, they attract orders of magnitude more resources (more capital, more labor, more brain power); breakthroughs in one domain (or modality) often benefit others; they tend to create new bottlenecks that lead to adjacent innovations (for instance, the compute and energy demands of GenAI will undoubtedly propel advancements in both); and wider adoption means a broader user base and a faster feedback loop. So, I don't only mean advancements in the GenAI models themselves, but in tooling (like user-friendly interfaces and workflows) and integration with existing workflows and software. Like all technology, over time GenAI will get further abstracted away and will be seamlessly embedded in Adobe, YouTube Studio, TikTok, Soundcloud, Roblox, and probably ever other content creation tool and platform. + +General purpose technologies tend to advance far more quickly because they attract a lot more resources; breakthroughs yield benefits across domains; they compel complementary innovations; and they benefit from a much faster feedback loop. + +GenAI will greatly enhance current creators' capacity to create and, probably, the number of creators too. It may feel like there are a lot of creators already, but 114 million channels on YouTube, 10 million artists on Spotify, 4 million podcasts or 80,000 developers on Steam are all miniscule relative to the potential global population of would-be creators. + +## 3. The Quality Distinction Between Corporate and Creator Content Will Blur + +The biggest knock against creator content is that it's low quality, sh*t, crap, slop, garbage, choose your pejorative. + +The thing about this criticism is that it is objectively true. No one watches, listens to or plays most of the stuff on YouTube, Spotify or even Steam. On average, it is crap. The other thing about this criticism is that it is irrelevant. In a power law, there is no arithmetic average, and in a power law popularity distribution, the average is + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +12/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +inconsequential. What matters is the head of the curve, the most popular stuff. That's what's competing for consumers' time. And the "quality" of the head will likely keep getting better relative to corporate-produced content. + +Most creator content is not good, but most isn't what matters; the best, most popular stuff is what matters. + +### GenAl Production Values Will Keep Improving + +I won't belabor this, because anyone who has been paying attention knows that the output quality of GenAI text, image, audio and video models-whether Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Midjourney v6 (see below), Suno v.4 or Runway Gen-3-is advancing at a dizzying pace. + +The image shows a grid of faces, presumably generated by AI, labeled V1 through V6. The faces appear to be of older men with varying skin tones and facial features. The progression from V1 to V6 suggests an improvement in the realism and detail of the AI-generated faces. + +Source: Henrique Centieiro and Bell Lee. + +### The Consumer Definition of Quality is Shifting Toward Creator Content + +Another reason the quality distinction will blur is because the definition of quality itself is changing. + +Corporate media will have the edge in production values for some time, but production values are becoming less important to consumers. + +I often write about the shifting consumer definition of quality, such as here. In a nutshell, the idea is that quality is not a stated opinion or judgment, but is revealed preference: people's choices implicitly indicate that what they choose is higher quality to them than what they don't. These choices—and therefore the definition of quality- change over time. + +One of the biggest challenges for anyone who has been in a field for a long time is that they tend to get anchored to a relatively fixed definition of quality. Consumers' + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +13/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +definitions, however, are fluid. When new entrants enter markets with new features, they often change consumers' definition of quality in the process. This is especially true of younger consumers, whose definitions of quality aren't as established. + +The creator economy is introducing new attributes that are changing the consumer definition of quality, like authenticity, relatability, intimacy, social relevance (whether to a small community or to broad cultural fluency), digestibility, indie, underground, niche, low friction, etc. + +By inference, that's happening today across media. The creator economy is introducing new attributes that consumers clearly value, like authenticity, relatability, intimacy, social relevance (whether to a small community or to broad cultural fluency), digestibility, indie, underground, niche, low friction, etc. Every time that someone slumps on the coach and picks up their phone to scroll through Reels, rather than watch Netflix on the TV that sits mere feet away, they are implicitly indicating that Reels is "higher quality” than Netflix, at least in that context. + +It's also backed up by research. In a recent study of 12,000 video viewers by YouTube, 90% of respondents said that quality is determined by both technical (i.e., production value) and emotive markers. These emotive markers include "really means something to me personally," "is relevant to my interests and preferences,” and “is authentic and relatable." + +Very little of creator content needs to be good for it to yield a lot of good content. + +### Internet Scale + +The vast scale of creator content means that very little of it has to be good for it to yield a lot of good content. + +Refer back to Figure 10. Hollywood produced about 15,000 hours of new TV and film last year, compared to close to 300 million hours uploaded to YouTube. That means that if only 0.01% of YouTube content is considered competitive with Hollywood content (not comparable, but competitive for time), it would yield 30,000 hours of competitive content, 2x Hollywood's annual output. + +### Some Established Talent Will Defect + +One of the four "tectonic” trends in media that I write about is disintermediation: technology is making it easier for creators (and creatives, who are all latent creators) to produce, market, distribute and monetize content by themselves, increasing their bargaining power over intermediaries or enabling them to circumvent them altogether. + +Over the next decade, more established talent may start to question the relative benefit of sticking with traditional intermediaries. As economic pressure grows on traditional media companies, they will become more risk averse, stingier and generally less fun to + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +14/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +work with. At the same time, it will become increasingly viable and potentially more lucrative for talent to go it alone. + +This has already occurred in journalism. Top journalists like Matt Taibbi, Bari Weiss, Glenn Greenwald, Matt Yglesias, Casey Newton and others have left established news outlets for Substack to gain freedom and, apparently, generally make more money. Over time, this may become more common in other media too. + +## 4. Rising Distrust of Centralized Institutions and Demand for Authenticity Structurally Favors Creators + +In the U.S., and probably most of the west, trust in centralized institutions has been falling for decades. Trust in government is at all-time lows (Figure 11) and, more to the point, so is trust in mass media (Figure 12). + +Figure 11. Trust in Government Has Been Falling for Decades... + +The image is a line graph showing the public trust in government over time. The x-axis represents the years from 1960 to 2020, and the y-axis represents the percentage of people who trust the government. The graph shows a significant decline in public trust in government over the decades. + +Figure 12. ...As Has Trust in Mass Media + +The image is a line graph showing Americans' trust in mass media from 1972 to 2024. The graph shows a decline in the percentage of Americans who have a great deal or fair amount of trust in the mass media, while the percentage of those with not very much or no trust at all has increased. + +[https://archive.ph/wTgnR](https://archive.ph/wTgnR) + +15/22 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +Source: Gallup. + +Trust and authenticity are complicated issues in the creator economy. Many creators +aren't considered authentic. Those who are can quickly lose trust and audience if they +are perceived as too commercial. + +Structurally, the direct relationship between creators and consumers creates more natural +conditions for perceived authenticity. + +But the creator-consumer relationship is parasocial: because it is often unvarnished, +unmediated and “un-institutional,” fans feel like they personally know the creator. +Structurally, this unmediated relationship creates more natural conditions for +perceived authenticity. Also, when a creator earns trust, it tends to be more personal +and resilient compared to institutional trust. + +## 5. The Demise of Monoculture + +Many have lamented the end of “monoculture,” big shared cultural experiences. As I +explained in Power Laws in Culture, cultural touchstones still exist-Taylor Swift, the +Super Bowl, Barbenheimer, GTA 6—but they are fewer and further between. +Underscoring the degree of atomization today, according to YouTube's recent Culture +and Trends Report, half of GenZ respondents say that they belong to a fandom that +"no one they know personally is a part of." + +We might be nostalgic for monoculture, but recall that mass media is only 100 years old. It +might not be the natural state. + +Most of the people reading this likely grew up with monoculture-I distinctly +remember the finale of M*A*S*H*, when over 100 million people tuned in-but keep in +mind that mass media is only 100 years old. We might be nostalgic for monoculture, +but perhaps it is not our natural state, at least not most of the time. + +Attention has atomized not only because there is much more choice, but, by inference, people +don't actually want a monoculture. + +Part of the reason that attention has fragmented is the massive increase in choice. +(Again, see Figure 10.) But the mere availability of vastly more stuff is an insufficient +reason. It must also be the case that people are choosing to spend their time with a +wider variety of content choices, or what we could call microcultures. + +Put differently, whether you think the decline of monoculture is good or bad, it's +happening because people prefer the alternative. We can infer a bunch of reasons why. +People have varied taste and they no longer need settle for homogenous content; in a +https://archive.ph/wTgnR +## 16/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy +world of near infinite choice, what you read/watch/listen to becomes a more powerful +way to signal identity and individuality; and it's more fulfilling to be part of a smaller, +more passionate, more engaged community, etc. + +But the reasons don't really matter. When offered more choices, consumers are taking +them. The implication is that as the relative volume of creator/independent content +choices grow, consumer attention will fracture even more. Economically, corporate +media is only viable if it programs to a wide audience. Further atomization into +microcultures definitionally means more share shift away from corporate media. + +## 6. Demographics Foretell a Perpetual Shift Toward Creators + +If you ever spend time around GenZ, or even occasionally see them slouched over a +phone at a neighboring table at a restaurant, it seems obvious that younger consumers +spend more of their time with creator content than do other age cohorts. It is probably +not worth litigating the point, but here are a few graphs for the heck of it: + +Figure 13. Over 1/3 of GenZ is on Social Media >2 Hours Per Day + +The image is a bar graph titled "Time spent on social media daily, 1% of respondents (n = 41,960)". The x-axis represents the amount of time spent on social media daily, divided into five categories: ">2 hours", "1-2 hours", "10 minutes-1 hour", "<10 minutes", and "Don't use social media". The y-axis represents different generations: Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and Baby boomers. Each bar represents the percentage of respondents in each generation who spend a certain amount of time on social media daily. For example, 35% of Gen Z respondents spend more than 2 hours on social media daily, while 23% spend 1-2 hours, 36% spend 10 minutes-1 hour, 4% spend less than 10 minutes, and 2% don't use social media. + +(1) Question: How much time, on average, do you spend on social media (not including +messaging apps) per day. Source: McKinsey Health Institute survey, April 2023. + +Figure 14. Almost 3/4 of Adults 18-29 Follow Creators + +The image is a horizontal bar graph titled "Follow influencers or content creators on social media". The y-axis represents different age groups: Total, Men, Women, Ages 18-29, 30-49, 50-64, and 65+. The x-axis represents the percentage of respondents in each age group who follow influencers or content creators on social media. For example, 40% of total respondents follow influencers or content creators on social media, while 36% of men, 42% of women, 72% of ages 18-29, 44% of ages 30-49, 26% of ages 50-64, and 12% of ages 65+ follow influencers or content creators on social media. + +Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. Adults, July 5-17, 2022. + +Demographics are destiny. + +As time marches on, these younger demos will make up a larger portion of the +consumer base and today's older demos will, well, not. If younger demos maintain +https://archive.ph/wTgnR +## 17/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy +their disproportionate usage of creator content as they age, it will be a perma-tailwind +for the creator economy. + +## 7. The Monetization Gap Should Narrow + +The creator media economy's share of M&E revenue lags its share of time spent, +although it's hard to tell how much. + +Above, I estimated that the total creator media economy is about 10% of M&E revenue +globally. That's probably substantially lower than its share of time. As shown in Figure +15, I estimate that social video represents about 1/4 of all time spent with video in the +U.S. (For more detail on how I derived this, see here.) And, as shown in Figure 16, +according to Spotify, about 1/4 of all streams are now derived from artists not +represented by the majors or Merlin. These are probably decent proxies for the share +of total media time spent with creator/independent content. + +Figure 15. Social Video is ~1/4 of Total Video Consumption + +The image is a bar graph titled "Social Video Time Spent vs. Other Video Total Sample (ADJUSTED)". The y-axis represents "Hours: Minutes" ranging from 0:00 to 9:36. The x-axis is labeled "2024". The graph shows the time spent on different types of video: Linear, SVOD, FAST, and Social Video. Social Video accounts for 24% of the total video consumption. + +Source: Maverix Insights MIDG data, Nielsen, Author analysis. + +Figure 16. Similarly, About 1/4 of Spotify Streams are Attributable to Creators/Independents + +The image is a line graph titled "Share of Spotify Streams for Majors and Merlin". The y-axis represents the percentage ranging from 50% to 100%. The x-axis represents the years from 2017 to 2023. The graph shows a downward trend, indicating that the share of Spotify streams for majors and Merlin has decreased over time. + +Source: Spotify. +https://archive.ph/wTgnR +## 18/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy +Over time, the gap between creator economy share of money and share of time should narrow. + +Over time, this monetization gap should narrow, even if it won't likely close +completely. + +* "Money follows eyeballs, with a lag.” This is an old expression in the marketing + business. It lags because new outlets necessitate new formats and creative; + measurement and attribution; planning and budgeting processes and cycles, etc. + Plus, a lot of ad allocations are still driven by relationships. Most advertisers don't + do zero-based budgeting, starting from scratch each year, but base their current + year media plans in part on last year's. But, as new practices, processes and + systems fall into place, budgets eventually shift. +* There is an ongoing mix shift to digital-native enterprises. Just as younger + consumers tend to spend more of their time and money on creator content, + younger businesses do too. There is a kind of "demographic effect" in the + enterprise. These digital-native businesses allocate more of the their budgets to + the creator economy, so as they inevitably become a larger proportion of the + global economy, this represents another tailwind. +* Creator monetization models should continue to mature. Current creator + monetization models are still relatively young. Subscription and patronage + platforms like Patreon and Substack only emerged in the last decade (Patreon + launched in 2013, Substack in 2017). Primarily ad-supported platforms, like + Instagram, YouTube and X/Twitter, have only recently enabled creators to offer + subscriptions. Just as traditional media took decades to optimize its business + models (cable bundles, retransmission fees, windowing strategies), the creator + economy should see similar refinement and "hardening" of business models over + time. + +## "Less Than" or Not, It's Where the Growth Is + +I used the words “inevitable and relentless” in the title of this piece because there are +so many tailwinds at the back of creator media, it's hard to see why the trend reverses. +It's really just a question of how fast it proceeds. + +For creators, the future is likely a mixed bag. It's great to have the wind at your back +and monetization tools and models should continue to improve. The offset is that +competition is near infinite, power laws are merciless, and the ranks of losers will +outnumber the winners by many orders of magnitude. + +Creatives will face a perpetual question of when and whether it is better to +disintermediate traditional intermediaries and go direct. For many creatives, they have +not historically thought like owners, but ownership of their output—and creative +control-will be an increasingly viable option. + +For traditional media companies, the growth of creator media may be unsettling, but +it's time to move into the acceptance phase of the five stages of grief. There are only +two choices: figure out how to participate in the creator economy or accept a +perpetually shrinking business. +https://archive.ph/wTgnR +## 19/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +The image is an advertisement for WSC Sports. The ad features the text "WSC SPORTS" in a white, bold font. Below that, it says "Monetize content by starting your own official creators program" in a larger, white font. There is a "LEARN MORE" button in yellow. To the right of the text, there are four images of sports highlights. + +1 In a nod to Samir's distinction between creative and creator, note that I've used the term +"creative" in Figures 1 and 2 and "creator" in Figure 3. + +2 Note also that I have avoided using the word "professional" in these definitions, because +plenty of creators earn money and are, therefore, professionals. + +3 Through the first nine months of 2024, Meta and YouTube advertising have grown by 22% +and 15%, respectively, good proxies for overall creator media economy growth. + +Subscribe to The Mediator +By Doug Shapiro + +The Mediator is (mostly) about the long term structural changes in the media industry and the business, +cultural, and societal implications of those shifts. I write it to get closer to the frontier. + +By subscribing, I agree to Substack's Terms of Use, and acknowledge +its Information Collection Notice and Privacy Policy. + +72 Likes. 17 Restacks + +72 +10 +17 + +Previous +Discussion about this post +https://archive.ph/wTgnR +Comments Restacks +Share +Next → +## 20/22 + +# 4/23/25, 6:54 PM + +The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy + +Write a comment... + +Jonathan Glazier Dec 1 +❤Liked by Doug Shapiro +Great post. I probably take slight issue with the characterisation that "we" the establishment are a bit +sniffy toward the creator community. I think we rather look toward it with envy. The envy born from the +creative freedom and lack of barriers to entry. When the internet was conceived by Tim his vision was +for democratisation of content IP writing etc now the internet is owned by big players, manipulation by +agents on all sides is rife and algorithms have become the new gate keepers. And the creator +community is becoming owned and controlled in the same way. So the platforms used by the creators +are used just as much by the establishment a video clip from one of my shows featuring the sacred +Rihanna is still up there in terms of views. Every production has a digital strategy. So do I see the two +entities as warring factions, no and I certainly don't treat it or any new creators with any lack of respect. +I look to them for inspiration! +LIKE (4) REPLY SHARE + +☑ Spencer Parlier Dec 26 +❤Liked by Doug Shapiro +This is brilliant, Doug. Enjoyed the post-Christmas reading. + +One platform to watch in 2025 is Bleacher Report, especially regarding your last paragraph. B/R (a +subsidiary of WBD/TNT Sports) has made it a mission to embrace the creator economy while remaining +under the traditional corporate media umbrella. + +The platform always invited users to engage with, and sometimes, create their content, but mainly via +the written form (this was the original mission of B/R before it got scooped up by Turner when the +blogosphere was still dominating as the "new kid on the media block"). Now they have launched their +"creator program," allowing users to "go live" on video in their product as a reaction to certain games +and other tentpole events in the sports world. + +While leaning toward the slightly vague branding as "Twitch but for Sports" B/R still hasn't reached the +level of Amazon's platform as it still has creators go through a thorough vetting process before +allowing them the tools to go live, strongly gatekeeping who and who can't use their live video tools in +their app. I believe the vetting process /before/ going live is probably constrained due to staffing on +the content moderation side. (Maybe Al can help alleviate this problem down the road...?). + +Although I can't go into too much detail, I do know that B/R is going to lean into this strategy even +more in 2025 with the launch of an updated product. This paired with B/R's partnership with House of +Highlights and its Creator League (https://www.youtube.com/@CreatorLeague) makes it a brand to +watch as creator and corporate economies continue their tug-of-war in the back half of this decade. +LIKE (2) +REPLY SHARE + +1 reply by Doug Shapiro + +8 more comments... + +Top Latest Discussions + +The image shows a card with the title "28 Days of Media Slides" and the subtitle "An Industry in Upheaval". It also includes the date "JAN 7 DOUG SHAPIRO" and some social media interaction icons with numbers 53 and 9. There is a thumbnail image on the right side of the card. + +28 Days of Media Slides +An Industry in Upheaval +JAN 7 DOUG SHAPIRO +53 +9 + +https://archive.ph/wTgnR + +# 21/22 -- 2.45.2 From f205ec04f36b07d5f8de8068ee9d29a6a88632cb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:48:58 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 11/13] extract: shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.json | 34 +++++++++++++++++++ .../shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md | 16 ++++++++- 2 files changed, 49 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.json diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..bc86da2a --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.json @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "consumer-quality-definition-is-revealed-preference-not-production-value.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "value-accrues-to-scarce-resources-and-shifts-when-relative-scarcity-changes.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 2, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 4, + "rejected": 2, + "fixes_applied": [ + "consumer-quality-definition-is-revealed-preference-not-production-value.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "consumer-quality-definition-is-revealed-preference-not-production-value.md:stripped_wiki_link:disruptors-redefine-quality-rather-than-competing-on-the-inc", + "value-accrues-to-scarce-resources-and-shifts-when-relative-scarcity-changes.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "value-accrues-to-scarce-resources-and-shifts-when-relative-scarcity-changes.md:stripped_wiki_link:giving-away-the-commoditized-layer-to-capture-value-on-the-s" + ], + "rejections": [ + "consumer-quality-definition-is-revealed-preference-not-production-value.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "value-accrues-to-scarce-resources-and-shifts-when-relative-scarcity-changes.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-19" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md b/inbox/queue/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md index 3213b6a0..50b3e624 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md +++ b/inbox/queue/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md @@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date_published: "2023-10-01" date_archived: "2025-04-23" archived_by: "clay" domain: "entertainment" -status: unprocessed +status: null-result claims_extracted: - "consumer definition of quality is fluid and revealed through preference not fixed by production value" - "fanchise management is a stack of increasing fan engagement from content extensions through co-creation and co-ownership" +processed_by: leo +processed_date: 2026-03-19 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator" --- # What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro @@ -555,3 +559,13 @@ JAN 20 DOUG SHAPIRO * The first image is a thumbnail for "28 Days of Media Slides" and features a dark blue background with white text that reads "28 Days of Media Slides" in a stylized font. * The second image is a thumbnail for "Quality is a Serious Problem" and features a person sitting in front of a television screen displaying the HBO logo. The person is looking at the screen with a thoughtful expression. + + +## Key Facts +- Hollywood released approximately 15,000 hours of new TV and film content in the U.S. in 2022 (496 films averaging 100 minutes plus ~2,000 TV series averaging 10 episodes of 40 minutes each) +- YouTube disclosed in 2019 that 500 hours of new video are uploaded every minute, or 30,000 hours per hour, equivalent to over 250 million hours per year +- According to Nielsen (August 2023), YouTube is the most-streamed service on U.S. TVs at 9.1% share, exceeding Netflix (8.2%) and equal to Hulu, Disney+, Max, Peacock, and Paramount+ combined +- Mr. Beast's recent video 'World's Most Dangerous Trap!' garnered over 100 million views in its first week with a 20-minute runtime, comparable to Netflix's top global series +- Warner Bros. library consists of more than 145,000 hours of programming including 12,500 feature films and 2,400 television programs +- Manifold Markets bettors gave 26% probability that a film created using text-to-video generator will be nominated for an Academy Award by 2030 (as of October 2023) +- Impact investing is a $1.57 trillion market with 92% of investors citing fragmented measurement as a concern and $19.6 billion fleeing U.S. ESG funds in 2024 -- 2.45.2 From bd2b7b6188bde3c47e0706c6b61725b5e6addeda Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:50:11 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 12/13] pipeline: archive 1 source(s) post-merge Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md | 557 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 557 insertions(+) create mode 100644 inbox/archive/general/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md diff --git a/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ed60be8f --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/archive/general/shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md @@ -0,0 +1,557 @@ +--- +source_type: "article" +title: "What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant" +author: "Doug Shapiro" +url: "https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/what-is-scarce-when-quality-is-abundan" +date_published: "2023-10-01" +date_archived: "2025-04-23" +archived_by: "clay" +domain: "entertainment" +status: processed +claims_extracted: + - "consumer definition of quality is fluid and revealed through preference not fixed by production value" + - "fanchise management is a stack of increasing fan engagement from content extensions through co-creation and co-ownership" +--- +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +archive.today Saved from https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/what-is-scarce-when-quality-is-abundan + +23 Apr 2025 14:29:31 UTC + +All snapshots from host dougshapiro.substack.com + +## What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant + +Where Does Value Accrue? + +DOUG SHAPIRO + +OCT 22, 2023 + +3 +2 +Share + +[Note that this essay was originally published on Medium] + +### Image: Vizcom rendering of my sketch + +The image shows a Vizcom rendering of a sketch. The rendering depicts a set of scales with a flat base. On one side of the scale, there is a flat, round weight. On the other side, there is a stack of coins. The scales are balanced. + +Many of my recent posts explore the following idea: the last decade in film and TV was +defined by the disruption of content distribution and the next decade will be defined +by the disruption of content creation. The premise is that over the next five-seven +years several technologies, particularly AI (including GenAI), will further blur the +quality distinction between professionally-produced (or "Hollywood") content and +creator or independent content, resulting in effectively “infinite" quality. + +This idea raises a lot of questions, some of which I've tried to answer in posts like +Forget Peak TV, Here Comes Infinite TV, How Will the Disruption of Hollywood Play +Out? and AI Use Cases in Hollywood. But here's another question: what becomes +scarce when quality is abundant? Where will value accrue in an abundant quality +world? + +Tl;dr: + +* In analyzing any industry, it's critically important to understand which resources + are abundant and which are scarce. That's because value accrues to the scarce + +## 1/17 + +* resource in a value chain and, accordingly, it shifts along the chain when the + relative abundance/scarcity of resources changes. +* Hollywood will need to prepare for abundant quality content. +* Last year, Hollywood released about 15,000 hours of new TV episodes and films in + the U.S. Creators upload 500 hours of content to YouTube each minute, or over + 250 million hours per year. If consumers consider just 0.01% of this to be + competitive with Hollywood, that would double Hollywood's annual output; if + they consider 0.1% competitive, it would be 20x. +* Al is set to democratize high production values. At the same time, many + consumers' definitions of quality are shifting away from high production values + and therefore lowering the bar at least some of the time. YouTube is already the + most streamed service in the U.S. to TVs, equivalent to Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max, + Peacock and Paramount+ combined. Or, consider that Mr. Beast's last video, + which is performing near his average, got enough viewing to be a top 10 series on + Netflix globally. +* So, what becomes scarce (and more valuable) when quality becomes abundant? A + few things: consumer time and attention; hits; marketing prowess; curation; + fandom and community; IRL experiences; premium IP; library; and (maybe) + certain picks and shovels. +* Big media companies should invest in scarce resources where they can. +* One opportunity is a much more purposeful effort to cultivate fandom, or what I + refer to as "fanchise management.” Below, I discuss what this might mean in + practice. + +Thanks for reading The Mediator! Subscribe for +free to receive new posts and support my work. + +### Scarcity, Abundance and Value + +In analyzing any industry, understanding the relative scarcity and abundance of key +resources is critically important for two simple reasons: 1) value accrues to whomever +controls the relatively scarce resource(s); and 2) when the relative abundance and +scarcity of resources changes, value shifts along the value chain. + +### Value Flows to the (Relatively) Scarce Resource + +The idea that value flows toward scarce resources is a foundational concept in +economics. Somewhere in the second or third chapter of every Econ 101 textbook is a +discussion of market structures. It usually includes a few charts with a bunch of +intersecting supply, demand, marginal revenue and marginal cost lines that illustrate +the differences between pricing, profits, consumer surplus and producer surplus +(among other things) for different market structures. + +The two extremes in these textbooks, perfect competition and monopoly, illustrate +why value flows to the scarce resource. + +## 2/17 + +* In perfect competition, no company controls the key resources, all competitors are + price takers and they generally only earn enough profit to offset their cost of + capital (if that), earning no economic profit. +* In a monopoly, at the other extreme, one company controls the scarce resource. As + a result, it can set prices and extract profits above its cost of capital. + +The graphs usually look something like Figure 1. As shown, relative to a perfectly +competitive firm, a monopoly extracts much more producer surplus (and consumers +extract less consumer surplus) because it controls the scarce resource(s). + +### Figure 1. Value Flows to Whomever Controls the Scarce Resource + +The image shows two graphs illustrating market structures. The first graph represents perfect competition, and the second represents a monopoly. Both graphs have axes labeled "Q" (quantity) and "P" (price). + +In the perfect competition graph, the supply curve (MC) intersects the demand curve (D=MR) at the equilibrium point (Pc, Qc). The area above the equilibrium price and below the demand curve represents consumer surplus, while the area below the equilibrium price and above the supply curve represents producer surplus. + +In the monopoly graph, the marginal revenue curve (MR) lies below the demand curve (Dmarket). The monopolist maximizes profit by producing at the quantity where marginal revenue equals marginal cost (Qm), resulting in a higher price (Pm) compared to perfect competition. The consumer surplus is smaller, and the producer surplus is larger. There is also a deadweight loss, representing the loss of economic efficiency due to the monopolist's restriction of output. + +Note: Consumer surplus is the difference between what consumers would be willing to pay and +the market clearing price; producer surplus is the difference between the price at which +producers would be willing to supply and the market clearing price; and dead weight loss is the +loss to society from market inefficiency (i.e., units that could have been bought/sold but are +not). Source: Every economics textbook ever. + +### Value Shifts When Relative Scarcity and Abundance Change + +It follows that when the relative scarcity and abundance of key resources changes (and +consequently who controls the scarce resource(s) changes), value shifts along the +chain. Industries are often disrupted expressly because a key input that was scarce +becomes abundant and entry barriers fall. + +As an example, here's an excerpt from Web3 Could be Even More Disruptive than You +Think describing the shifting relative scarcity and abundance of bandwidth and +processing power over the last 60-70 years: + +* In the first enterprise computing systems, local bandwidth was cheap and processing power + was expensive. Dumb terminals were connected over a local area network to a centralized + mainframe, which performed the processing. +* In 1971, Intel invented the microprocessor and processing power became more abundant + than bandwidth. That change birthed the modern computer industry and everything related + to it the PC, peripherals, consumer software, enterprise software, video games and + mobile phones, etc., etc. + +## 3/17 + +* With all that distributed (and eventually commoditized) processing power in place, capital + flowed toward the new scarce resource, bandwidth. During the '90s and '00s billions of + dollars were spent laying fiber and putting up cell towers which, along with improved + multiplexing technologies, compression algorithms and network architectures, flipped the + script again, making bandwidth relatively inexpensive and processing power again relatively + scarce. In turn, from cheap bandwidth emerged the cloud, the SaaS business model, + streaming media and mobile gaming, among many other things. + +The biggest beneficiaries of technological change are those who can anticipate which +resources will become abundant and which will become scarce and are able to +squander the abundant resource to corner the scarce one. + +### The Math of Abundant Quality Video + +Let's turn to the math. + +To use round numbers, Hollywood put out around 15,000 hours of new film and TV +content in 2022 in the U.S. That includes 496 films with an average running time of +about 100 minutes, or about 800 hours of film content. As shown in Figure 2, last year +there were an estimated 2,000 original series on TV in the U.S., including almost 600 +scripted series. Assuming an average of 10 episodes per series and 40 minutes per +episode, that is another 13,000 hours of original video. So, we'll call it 15,000 total, if +we're rounding up. + +### Figure 2. There Were ~2,000 Originals on TV in the U.S. Last Year + +The image is a bar chart titled "Scripted and Unscripted Originals on Broadcast, Cable and SVOD." The chart displays the number of original series on television in the United States from 2002 to 2022. The figures shown are for networks and services in the U.S. + +The chart shows a general upward trend in the number of original series over time. The number of series increased from 125 in 2002 to 2,024 in 2022. + +## 4/17 + +By contrast, in 2019 YouTube disclosed that 500 hours of new video are uploaded every +minute, or 30,000 hours per hour. That is double the amount of new content released +annually by Hollywood and equivalent to Netflix's entire domestic library every hour. +And keep in mind that was in 2019. It has surely increased since then. + +### Figure 3. A Vast Amount of Content is Uploaded to YouTube + +The image shows a person standing in front of a large red screen displaying the text "> 500 hours of content are uploaded every minute." The person is wearing a dark suit and tie and appears to be presenting or speaking about the information on the screen. The background is blurred, suggesting the photo was taken at an event or conference. + +Source: YouTube Newfronts presentation, May 2019. + +But let's stick with the 30,000 hours per hour (or over 250 million hours per year). +Obviously, most of that is not considered competitive with professionally-produced, +Hollywood content. But consider this: if 0.01% of it is, that would equate to ~30,000 +hours of new, competitive content produced annually by independent creators, or +double Hollywood's annual output. If 0.1% is considered competitive, that would be +20x what Hollywood produces per year. Either way, it would be enough to completely +upend the supply-demand dynamic. + +If 0.01% of independent content is considered competitive with Hollywood, that would equate +to 2x Hollywood output annually. + +### Defining "Quality" + +How realistic is it that consumers will eventually consider 0.01% or even 0.1% of +independent content to be of sufficiently good quality to compete with Hollywood? +Pretty realistic. + +There are two primary reasons for this. The first, which is causing hand wringing +throughout Hollywood, is that Al is democratizing high quality production. In a +recent post (AI Use Cases in Hollywood), I discussed in detail both current and +potential future AI use cases in film and TV production and why (and how) they may +dramatically reduce production costs. The second reason, which is more subtle, is that +many consumers' definition of quality is shifting away from high production values. + +## 5/17 + + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +The assertion that independent content will increasingly be able to compete with Hollywood content is sometimes misconstrued to mean that the production values of independent content will match the upper echelon of blockbuster movies and premium TV. I'm not making that case. The question is not whether the production values of independent content will be comparable to the best Hollywood output, it is whether consumers will consider it competitive for similar use cases based on their own definitions of quality. + +The question is not whether the production values of independent content will be comparable, it is whether consumers will consider it competitive for similar use cases based on their own definitions of quality. + +## The Definition of Quality is Fluid + +I've written about quality before, such as in The Four Horsemen of the TV Apocalypse, but I'll revisit it briefly. The word "quality" is hard-to-define, but here's what I mean: quality is the weighted combination of attributes one considers when choosing between identically-priced choices. So, quality is based on revealed preference; each person may have a different definition of quality; it is context dependent (e.g., you will have a different definition of quality when settling down with your family on a Sunday night than while sitting on a long flight); and it can change over time. + +Quality is the weighted combination of attributes one considers when choosing between identically-priced choices. + +It is self-evident to most younger consumers, or anyone who observes younger consumers, that social video is changing the definition of quality for many. Some Hollywood executives may define TV and film quality as high production values, good writing, well-known above the line talent (writers, directors, showrunners, actors), expensive effects, etc. But social video has introduced all kinds of potential new attributes to many consumers' quality algorithms, like accessibility (low friction), digestibility (easy and quick to watch), authenticity, virality and relevance to my sub-community or social circle, etc. The introduction of these new attributes lowers the weighting of more traditional attributes. That's not to say that high production values no longer matter, just that the introduction of new attributes necessarily means they matter less. + +The introduction of new quality attributes necessarily means that traditional measures of quality, like high production values, matter less. + +Let's make this less abstract. My wake up call occurred years ago, when I saw my son switch his Saturday-morning viewing from Teen Titans Go on Cartoon Network to watching gaming streamers DanTDM and LazarBeam on YouTube. Since he didn't pay + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +## 6/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +the bills then (and still doesn't), his marginal cost to view everything was zero. So, when he chose a streamer over traditional TV, he revealed that he considered the former to be higher quality than the latter (at least at that moment). Or consider your own experience. If you subscribe to one or more streaming services, your marginal cost of consumption is also zero. If you've ever plopped down on the coach and scrolled through TikTok for 30 minutes rather than watch Netflix, you've signaled that TikTok was higher quality than Netflix at that moment — whether you explicitly thought about it that way or not. + +## The Data Illustrate that the Definition is Changing + +As shown in Figure 4, according to Nielsen, YouTube is the most streamed service in the U.S. to televisions. It gets the same viewing as Hulu, Disney+, Max, Peacock and Paramount+ combined. Note that this excludes viewing of the YouTube TV vMVPD service and YouTube viewing on PC, mobile or other devices. The usual rationale for why independent or creator content doesn't compete with Hollywood is that it is a very different use case. But this comparison is measuring precisely the same use case — watching on a TV. When looking to be entertained on their TVs, more people pick up a remote and select YouTube than any other service. + +YouTube already surpasses every other streaming service for their primary use case — watching on a TV. + +Figure 4. YouTube is Already the Most Streamed Service on TVs + +The image is a pie chart showing the streaming service market share on TVs, according to Nielsen data from August 2023. The chart shows that YouTube has the largest share at 9.1%, followed by Netflix at 8.2%, Broadcast at 20.4%, Cable at 30.2%, Streaming SVOD at 38.3%, and Other at 11.1%. The streaming SVOD category includes Hulu (3.6%), Prime Video (3.4%), Disney+ (2.0%), Tubi (1.3%), Max (1.3%), Peacock (1.2%), Roku Channel (1.1%), Paramount+ (1.1%), and Pluto (0.9%). + +Source: Nielsen. + +To underscore the point, Figure 5 compares the first week viewing of Mr. Beast's latest video on YouTube (World's Most Dangerous Trap!) to the most watched English-language series on Netflix globally around the same period. The video garnered over 100 million views in its first week, which is about the (recent) average for a Mr. Beast video. With a 20 minute running time, it would rank right alongside Netflix's top viewed series whether you assume a 75%, 50% or even 25% completion rate. + +Figure 5. Mr. Beast's Last Episode Would Rank With Netflix's Top Series Globally + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +## 7/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +The image is a bar chart comparing the viewership hours of Netflix Global Top 10 Series (10/2/2023-10/8/2023) with the last Mr. Beast Episode (10/7/2023-10/13/2023). The y-axis represents hours, ranging from 0 to 70,000,000. The x-axis lists various series and the Mr. Beast episode with different completion rates (75%, 50%, 25%). The chart shows that the Mr. Beast episode, even at a 25% completion rate, has comparable viewership hours to some of the top Netflix series. + +Source: Netflix, YouTube, Author (concept from Benedict Evans). + +According to the collective judgment of bettors on Manifold Markets, at the time of this writing there is a 26% chance that a film created using a text-to-video generator (like Runway) will be nominated for an Academy Award (in any category) by 2030. But the bar is far lower than that. "Abundant quality" merely means that there will be a lot more content that competes with Hollywood in similar use cases and similar contexts, for a sufficient number of people. + +## What Becomes Scarce When Quality is Abundant? + +Let's paint a blurry picture of 2030. + +* The cost to produce "quality" video content (as defined above) has dropped several orders of magnitude as a larger proportion of what appears on screen is synthetic. +* In 2027, Runway achieves its stated goal of enabling the first (watchable) feature-length film entirely created by stitching together text/image/video-to-video generated video, so by 2030 it is common to see video that largely or entirely comprises synthetic scenes. Human actors are still prevalent in comedies and dramas, but less so in sci-fi, fantasy, action/adventure and horror genres. +* With much lower cost, and risk, it is economically feasible to distribute content for free on ad-supported platforms, like YouTube and maybe TikTok. +* The ability to render video near-real time enables dynamic, contextually relevant or perhaps even personalized content. +* In 2029, three of the top 10 most popular shows in the U.S. are distributed on YouTube and TikTok, for free (ad supported). +* YouTube exceeds 20% share of viewing by seamlessly combining Hollywood content and creator content, premium and ad-supported, in one consumer experience. For consumers, the distinction between “professionally-produced" and "creator" content becomes even less meaningful. + +In other words, while it already feels like consumers are faced with infinite choice, it will become even “more infinite” (yes, there is such a thing). + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +## 8/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +So, back to the questions I posed at the very beginning: When quality is abundant, what is scarce? Where does value flow? + +Some of my answers below are obvious, in part because we've already seen this play out with other media, and only warrant a few sentences. Others would justify (or already have justified) an entire essay in themselves: + +## Consumer Time and Attention + +Consumers will clearly benefit. With more people competing for their time and attention, consumers will have even more choice, at higher quality and lower cost. We may not always think about consumers as competing for value within the value chain, but they do. + +Beneficiary: consumers + +## Hits + +Hits will be scarcer and more valuable than ever. I discussed why in an essay a few months ago, called Power Laws in Culture, which has been one of most-read posts. As I wrote in that piece though, hits are hard to harness because they include a large dose of luck. + +Here's a quick summary. When confronted with so much choice, consumers need filters. One of those filters is popularity, because people assume that other people's choices contain valuable information (i.e., “the most popular stuff must be popular for a reason, right?”). This causes an “information cascade,” a powerful positive feedback loop that amplifies hits. Across media this is resulting in persistently, and sometimes increasingly, extreme power law-like popularity distributions — a few huge hits and a massively long tail of misses. (In the essay, I show this empirically for Netflix shows, songs on Spotify, U.S. box office and Patreon patrons.) Over time, these distributions may become relatively more extreme as the tail gets ever longer. While in the future the hits may not be absolutely bigger, they will be relatively bigger, and therefore more valuable, than ever. + +Who benefits from this? As I discuss in the Power Laws essay, information cascades are "highly sensitive to initial conditions" that are difficult to predict or control. So, while successful content must exceed some quality threshold, hits are heavily influenced by luck. + +Beneficiary: a lucky few + +## Marketing Prowess + +Another implication of abundant quality is that marketing becomes more important and a lot harder. + +An instructive example is the major music labels, as I discussed in Will Radio Save the Video Star? They already confront “infinite quality" (Spotify boasts 100 million tracks and an estimated 100,000 new songs are uploaded to streaming services each day). Plus, the value they provide artists — which was historically financing, marketing and distribution — has changed as technology has made it easier for artists to do these things themselves. But they have maintained their primacy in the value chain, and + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +## 9/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +their value to artists, in part because of their marketing prowess and ability to manage artists' brands and images holistically. + +But marketing also gets tougher, for a bunch of reasons: there is much more competition for users' attention; fragmentation makes it harder to reach consumers using traditional mass media; the consumer decision journey becomes more complex, as does attribution; the rising ability to segment and target consumers raises the bar (and the cost) for everyone; and you need to monitor and, if possible, dynamically influence or counter, the organic signals arising from the network itself. So, the job becomes a lot more analytical, data intensive and difficult to manage. + +Beneficiary: good marketers + +## Curation + +Another filter consumers use is curation. This obviously shifts value to the platforms that control distribution. They have reams of data and control the UI. When done correctly, recommendation systems give the platforms the power to increase consumer usage, engagement and retention and perhaps steer viewers to content in which they have a vested interest (such as content they own or for which they pay lower license fees). + +But there are limits. As I also discussed in Power Laws in Culture, not all recommendation algorithms are equally valuable. Consumers' dependence on recommendation engines seems directly correlated with search costs and inversely correlated with the opportunity cost of consumption. In music, for instance, the search costs are extremely high (100,000 new tracks per day!) and the opportunity cost of trying out a new song is very low (and easily surmounted by skipping it). By contrast, in TV the search costs are not as high (there are a lot of shows, but not as many) and the opportunity cost of watching a few episodes of a new series is very high. It is telling, for instance, that Netflix recently eliminated its “Surprise Me" button because “users tend to come to the service with a specific show, movie or genre in mind.” Rather than rely on recommendation algorithms, some consumers prefer to carefully manage their curation, outsourcing it to their most reliable friends on Facebook, favorite influencers on Instagram or TikTok, tastemakers on Spotify or chosen thought leaders on Twitter/X. Or, in some cases, they rely on good old word-of-mouth. + +In addition, there's an open question whether technology will ultimately supplant the recommendation algorithm as we know it. Today, Spotify, Netflix or YouTube benefit by observing our behavior on-platform and perhaps appending additional first-party data they obtain through ownership of adjacent platforms or third-party data (such as might be obtainable if they have personally identifiable information (PII), like credit cards). But everything they know about us is by inference and they can't see all our behavior across digital platforms and offline. In the future, will we all have Al agents that both know our intentions (“pull me up a Lizzo-vibe playlist” or “what was that article I bookmarked on Twitter the other day?" or "give me a list of the top 10 movies I should watch with my 6-year-old daughter and 10-year-old son”) and have access to behavioral data across platforms and even IRL? Probably. + +Beneficiary: the platforms, for now + +## Fandom/Community + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +## 10/17 + + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +4/23/25, 6:48 PM + +Yet another filter consumers will use to choose content is fandom or community. As Ben Valenta and David Sikorjak explain in their recent book Fans Have More Friends, fandom is ultimately driven by a deep-seated need for belonging. Fandoms provide a sense of connection, a common vernacular and perhaps even a shared value system. (We've all had that experience of meeting someone and realizing we share similar tastes in music, TV series or authors, and feeling a tighter bond.) When confronted with infinite choice, people will not only gravitate to content about their fandom, they will actively seek it out. + +In the future, having an engaged, loyal fan base will be more important than ever. + +The challenge for IP owners is how best to foster this fandom. For most traditional entertainment companies, it is an afterthought today. But as the volume of quality content explodes, having an engaged, loyal fan base will be more important than ever. Below, I discuss how entertainment companies should think about what I call "fanchise management." + +Beneficiary: IP owners, if they prioritize it + +## Premium Brands and IP + +Following from the prior point, diehard fans will actively seek out content that relates to their fandom. But even casual fans will lean on well-known brands and IP as yet another filter to help them cut through the clutter. This is partly due to what behavioral economists call the “mere exposure effect:" people tend to like something just because they've been exposed to it before. + +The big media companies already know this, as evidenced by Disney's investments in Star Wars and the MCU, WarnerBros. Discovery's announcement of a reboot of Harry Potter or NBCU's reported interest in bringing back The Office. + +With lower production costs, it becomes less risky to resuscitate dormant or underleveraged IP. + +Of course, you can take this too far and risk weakening the value of IP by creating so- called franchise fatigue. Perhaps a more interesting opportunity is to leverage falling production costs to try to resuscitate dormant or elevate underleveraged IP. Think it might be time to bring back Thundercats or reach deeper into the DC library and give Ragman or Metamorpho a shot? Might as well. + +Beneficiary: IP owners + +## Library + +The major media companies have enormous libraries of content. For instance, this is from the Warner Bros. website (and this doesn't include HBO or the Turner networks): + +The company's vast library, one of the most prestigious and valuable in the world, consists of more than 145,000 hours of programming, including 12,500 feature films and 2,400 + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +11/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +4/23/25, 6:48 PM + +television programs comprised of more than 150,000 individual episodes. + +No matter how inexpensive it gets to create new content, these libraries will retain value: they can be re-monetized through licensing or owned SVOD or FAST networks; they can be licensed to train generative Al models; they can be trained for proprietary internal generative models; it may be possible to upscale 2D content to 3D (using technologies such as NeRF or Gaussian Splatting) to give some of this content a new life and enable new experiences or create digital asset libraries for future games or productions; and, using new dubbing technologies, it may be possible to re-exploit them in non-English language countries. + +In many cases, the owners of these libraries don't know exactly what they have, where it is, what rights they have in different jurisdictions or how to administer royalties if they can monetize them again. This is one of those big problems that sound really un- sexy but could unlock a lot of value. + +Beneficiary: Big media owners, if they can figure it out + +## IRL Experiences + +There's a trope that when information goods get cheaper, experiences get more expensive. That's certainly been true in music. Live experiences offer a number of benefits that you can't get at home: the exclusivity itself is a draw, the communal experience, the social status (such as posting online that you "were there"), the signaling of the degree of your fandom and establishing a lasting memory. + +In film and TV, that probably benefits the companies who are best poised to create live experiences around their IP, namely Disney and NBCUniversal, who own theme parks. But that is an extremely capital intensive business and it's highly unlikely any other major media company will take the plunge. + +It is possible to create live experiences around entertainment IP with less investment, such as stage versions (like musical versions of Disney films) or traveling live shows (such as for Impractical Jokers). Netflix just announced plans to open brick and mortar locations for retail, dining and other live experiences. The challenge is that these businesses are definitionally tough to scale. Will it eventually be possible to create synthetic “metaverse”-type experiences that are compelling and exclusive, at scale? We'll see. + +Beneficiary: Disney and NBCU + +## Picks and Shovels, Maybe (?) + +Many companies are currently trying to position themselves as the enablers of the democratization of content production. It's very much an open question whether it is possible to establish a competitive moat around enabling tools. For instance, Runway has established itself as the frontrunner in Al video generation and just secured a $1.5 billion valuation in its last funding round. But competitors seem to crop up every month or so, such as recent entrants Replay and Moonvalley. Adobe could be an even bigger competitive threat as it adds its Firefly generative AI features inside Premiere Pro and After Effects, since this is already the most-used edit suite in the industry. Alternatively, OpenAI will surely eventually launch a video generator, so maybe multi- modal AI (text, image, video and probably audio) in one platform ultimately wins. + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +12/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +4/23/25, 6:48 PM + +Will someone create the “TikTok” of high-quality content that provides easy-to-use, no code tools for content creation and a distribution platform all in one place? (And if so, why isn't this TikTok itself or the evolution of Fortnite Creator?) Will someone create the digital watermarking system that enables content to be tracked and monetized wherever it appears online? Will someone solve the library rights management problem I cited above? + +The answer to all these questions is a resounding: who knows? It's too early to tell. + +Beneficiary: if you know, tell me + +## What's Big Media to Do? + +As I've written before, disruption is never good for incumbents. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't play the hand you're dealt as best you can. + +If you're a big media company, what do you do? When the relative scarcity/abundance of resources shifts, successful companies invest in the scarce resource. Looking through the list above, many of these new areas of scarcity aren't accessible for media companies. There is no way to corner the market for hits and there is little opportunity to control curation. But there are a few areas where the big media companies should invest (and, in some cases, they already are): + +* Premium IP and brands (particularly those that have the best potential to cut through the noise, such as those with rich mythologies). +* Marketing science. +* Library rights management and monetization. +* "Fanchise management.TM" + +The first three are pretty self explanatory, so let's spend a moment on the last one. + +(I didn't really trademark "fanchise management," but I should, right?) + +## From Franchise Management to “Fanchise Management" + +Above, I made the case that fandom and community will be an increasingly important filter as consumers confront infinite choice. What can entertainment companies do to foster it? + +## Fandom as Output, Not Input + +Historically, Hollywood had a largely one way relationship with its fans, partly because there was no practical alternative. A TV series or film was made by a relatively small team of creatives and released and, if it succeeded, a fandom would emerge. Fandom was considered an output of the creation process, not an input. These fandoms started as fan clubs (sometimes "official", sometimes not) and have evolved into dedicated websites, wikis and subreddits and conversations that happen on Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, etc. The most dedicated fans create their own fanfics or fan films, something I discussed in depth in IP as Platform. + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +13/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +4/23/25, 6:48 PM + +Even today, fandom is often viewed as something to manage, not cultivate. + +Today, marketers engage with fans by establishing an official online presence, like dedicated Facebook pages or posts on YouTube, TikTok, Reels, etc., and use tools like sentiment analysis to monitor the online conversation. They'll also engage key influencers and have special screenings or sneak previews and talent panels at events like ComicCon. Studios try to listen and cater to the fans you definitely don't want to piss them off - but fandom is often viewed more so as something to manage than cultivate. And almost all of these fan conversations are happening on platforms the studios don't control. + +Fanchise management is a much more purposeful approach to cultivating fandoms and developing community around them. + +## Fanchise Management + +To truly foster fandom, studios need to move from franchise management to "fanchise management." Most studios have some sort of franchise management function, the goal of which is to think holistically about a specific franchise and coordinate across the company on long-term creative strategy, brand marketing, merchandising, live events, licensing, gaming, etc. Sometimes it's done well and sometimes it's not, although it is often hard to tell from the outside (and sometimes even from the inside) whether this function is effective. + +Figure 6. The Fanchise Management Stack + +The image is a diagram illustrating the "Fanchise Management Stack." It's structured as an upward-pointing arrow, with "FAN ENGAGEMENT" written vertically along the left side, indicating that engagement increases as you move up the stack. The arrow is divided into several horizontal sections, each representing a different level or component of fanchise management: + +1. **Good Content:** This forms the base of the stack, suggesting it's the foundational element. +2. **360° Content Extensions:** This level builds upon good content, implying broader engagement opportunities. +3. **Loyalty and Engagement Incentives:** This section focuses on rewarding and motivating fan participation. +4. **Community Tooling:** This level emphasizes providing tools and platforms for fans to connect and interact. +5. **User-Generated Content/Co-Creation:** This section highlights the importance of involving fans in content creation. +6. **Co-Ownership:** This is at the top of the stack, suggesting the highest level of engagement where fans have a sense of ownership. + +The diagram is intended to show how different elements of fanchise management contribute to increasing fan engagement, with each level building upon the previous one. + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +14/17 + +# What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +4/23/25, 6:48 PM + +Fanchise management would be an extension of this, but with a much more purposeful approach to encouraging fandoms and developing community around them. In Figure 6, I show an illustrative “fanchise management stack” with a series of capabilities that correspond to a higher degree of engagement as you move up the stack. Also note that most studios are currently trying to do some of this (especially the bottom two layers), but much less so as you move up the stack. + +* The foundation is, as always, making good stuff. +* On top of that is multiple, year-round content extensions that give fans the opportunity to engage with the IP and keep it top of mind, even outside of the normal content (TV, film) release cycle. This could include digital shorts, book or comic book publishing, mobile games, IRL events, podcasts, immersive experiences (eventually), physical and digital collectibles, etc. These are all potential revenue opportunities, but building fandom may be equally or even more valuable. +* From there it gets progressively less common. Loyalty and engagement incentives might include digital collectibles or badges in exchange for viewing, commenting, sharing, etc. They could also be paired with utility tokens that could be exchanged for discounts or exclusive merchandise or events. In Every Media Company Needs an NFT Strategy-Now, I discussed how NFTs could facilitate this. NFT has become a four-letter word of late, so perhaps we should just call them unique digital assets, but the infrastructure keeps maturing and it is increasingly possible to abstract away the “crypto” so that consumers aren't even aware of it. For instance, Feature is currently partnering with media companies to create blockchain-enabled fan loyalty and engagement programs. +* On top of that is community tooling. Today, the conversations about IP are spread between multiple platforms, so the goal would be to aggregate more of those conversations in one place. That would require either adding social tools in the places where fans already congregate, namely streaming apps, or creating new products or services that draw fans and also have social features. That's a good segue to the next layer. +* Co-creation refers to giving fans input into content creation. At the most conservative end of the spectrum, copyright owners could tightly control what elements of the story fans are able to influence. For instance, viewers could choose between a few plot developments. At the other end, creators would be encouraged to make entirely new content using the copyright owner's IP, something I discussed in IP as Platform. I won't repeat the entire essay, but the bottom line is that encouraging fan creation (with the appropriate guardrails) would strengthen the entertainment companies' relationships with their most avid fans and attract new ones. (It might also provide free marketing; possibly source new stories and talent; and, to the degree they can monetize some of this new content, boost revenue.) +* By co-ownership, I mean the opportunity for fans to have an economic interest in the success of an IP. This is a natural outgrowth of some of the prior ideas. For instance, the value of rare digital collectibles would likely increase if a show or movie becomes more successful. Similarly, if fan-created content can be monetized, the creator should get a cut. Providing fans an economic interest in their favorite IPs would make them even more ardent evangelizers. + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +15/17 + + +# 4/23/25, 6:48 PM + +What is Scarce When Quality is Abundant - by Doug Shapiro + +## Hollywood Needs to Prepare + +Right now, some of this might seem “out there." But keep in mind that I'm writing about trends that will play out over the next five-10 years. In 2009, the idea that Netflix would upend the entire pay TV ecosystem – globally seemed out there too. + +Hollywood should be working overtime to position itself. + +## Subscribe to The Mediator + +By Doug Shapiro + +The Mediator is (mostly) about the long term structural changes in the media industry and the business, cultural, and societal implications of those shifts. I write it to get closer to the frontier. + +By subscribing, I agree to Substack's [Terms of Use](https://substack.com/terms), and acknowledge its [Information Collection Notice](https://substack.com/privacy). and [Privacy Policy](https://substack.com/privacy). + +* 3 Likes 2 Restacks + + * 3 + * 2 + +[Previous](#) +[Next](#) + +## Discussion about this post + +Comments Restacks + +Write a comment... + +Top Latest Discussions + +### 28 Days of Media Slides + +An Industry in Upheaval +JAN 7 DOUG SHAPIRO +53 +9 + +### Quality is a Serious Problem + +Understanding The Changing Consumer Definition of Quality in Media +JAN 20 DOUG SHAPIRO +91 +19 + +[https://archive.ph/nhtA3](https://archive.ph/nhtA3) + +## 16/17 + +**Image Descriptions:** + +* The first image is a thumbnail for "28 Days of Media Slides" and features a dark blue background with white text that reads "28 Days of Media Slides" in a stylized font. +* The second image is a thumbnail for "Quality is a Serious Problem" and features a person sitting in front of a television screen displaying the HBO logo. The person is looking at the screen with a thoughtful expression. -- 2.45.2 From 9a44720bda87148d24b8e9a8301efb3a23d7eed0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Teleo Agents Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:40:23 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 13/13] extract: shapiro-disruption-hollywood Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70> --- .../shapiro-disruption-hollywood.json | 48 +++++++++++++++++++ inbox/queue/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.md | 26 +++++++++- 2 files changed, 73 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) create mode 100644 inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.json diff --git a/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.json b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d6f406b9 --- /dev/null +++ b/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.json @@ -0,0 +1,48 @@ +{ + "rejected_claims": [ + { + "filename": "five-factors-determine-disruption-speed-and-extent.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "hollywood-vulnerable-to-disruption-because-consumer-adoption-barriers-are-zero-while-high-end-market-is-stagnant.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + { + "filename": "social-video-already-disrupting-hollywood-at-low-end-with-ai-tools-accelerating-upmarket-movement.md", + "issues": [ + "missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + } + ], + "validation_stats": { + "total": 3, + "kept": 0, + "fixed": 11, + "rejected": 3, + "fixes_applied": [ + "five-factors-determine-disruption-speed-and-extent.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "five-factors-determine-disruption-speed-and-extent.md:stripped_wiki_link:disruptors-redefine-quality-rather-than-competing-on-the-inc", + "five-factors-determine-disruption-speed-and-extent.md:stripped_wiki_link:good-management-causes-disruption-because-rational-resource-", + "five-factors-determine-disruption-speed-and-extent.md:stripped_wiki_link:incumbents-fail-to-respond-to-visible-disruption-because-ext", + "hollywood-vulnerable-to-disruption-because-consumer-adoption-barriers-are-zero-while-high-end-market-is-stagnant.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "hollywood-vulnerable-to-disruption-because-consumer-adoption-barriers-are-zero-while-high-end-market-is-stagnant.md:stripped_wiki_link:AI-optimization-of-industry-subsystems-induces-demand-for-mo", + "hollywood-vulnerable-to-disruption-because-consumer-adoption-barriers-are-zero-while-high-end-market-is-stagnant.md:stripped_wiki_link:purpose-built-full-stack-systems-outcompete-acquisition-base", + "hollywood-vulnerable-to-disruption-because-consumer-adoption-barriers-are-zero-while-high-end-market-is-stagnant.md:stripped_wiki_link:two-phase-disruption-where-distribution-moats-fall-first-and", + "social-video-already-disrupting-hollywood-at-low-end-with-ai-tools-accelerating-upmarket-movement.md:set_created:2026-03-19", + "social-video-already-disrupting-hollywood-at-low-end-with-ai-tools-accelerating-upmarket-movement.md:stripped_wiki_link:disruptors-redefine-quality-rather-than-competing-on-the-inc", + "social-video-already-disrupting-hollywood-at-low-end-with-ai-tools-accelerating-upmarket-movement.md:stripped_wiki_link:two-phase-disruption-where-distribution-moats-fall-first-and" + ], + "rejections": [ + "five-factors-determine-disruption-speed-and-extent.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "hollywood-vulnerable-to-disruption-because-consumer-adoption-barriers-are-zero-while-high-end-market-is-stagnant.md:missing_attribution_extractor", + "social-video-already-disrupting-hollywood-at-low-end-with-ai-tools-accelerating-upmarket-movement.md:missing_attribution_extractor" + ] + }, + "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5", + "date": "2026-03-19" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/inbox/queue/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.md b/inbox/queue/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.md index 5f897b0d..ac0dd24d 100644 --- a/inbox/queue/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.md +++ b/inbox/queue/shapiro-disruption-hollywood.md @@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date_published: "2023-07-05" date_archived: "2025-04-23" archived_by: "clay" domain: "entertainment" -status: unprocessed +status: null-result claims_extracted: - "five factors determine the speed and extent of disruption including quality definition change and ease of incumbent replication" +processed_by: leo +processed_date: 2026-03-19 +extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5" +extraction_notes: "LLM returned 3 claims, 3 rejected by validator" --- # How Will the "Disruption" of Hollywood Play Out? @@ -432,3 +436,23 @@ Comments Restacks https://archive.ph/nk30T ## 18/19 + + +## Key Facts +- YouTube has 2.6 billion global users and ~100 million channels uploading 30,000 hours of content every hour +- TikTok has 1.8 billion users with 83% also uploading content +- Nielsen data shows YouTube is #1 streaming destination on TVs at 8.1% of total TV viewing vs Netflix at 6.9% (as of data shown in article) +- CoComelon has over 160 million YouTube subscribers +- Mr. Beast has over 160 million subscribers and over 1 billion views per month +- According to TikTok, 35% of users were consciously watching less TV since starting TikTok as of March 2021 +- Spotify has 11 million artists and 100 million tracks as of 4Q21, with only 200,000 considered 'professional' +- An estimated 100,000 new songs are uploaded to streaming services each day +- Three major music labels (UMG, SME, WMG) have gained revenue share over independents in recent years +- Majors and Merlin represent about 75% of Spotify streams despite explosion of independent music +- According to Luminate, 72% of U.S. music consumption in 2022 was catalog (18+ months old) +- CD Projekt Red spent over $300 million developing Cyberpunk 2077 +- Mobile game development costs ~$10,000-$100,000, or 3-4 orders of magnitude less than AAA console titles +- There are over 50,000 PC games on Steam but hundreds of thousands of mobile games on iOS and Google Play +- Mobile gaming is now approximately 50% of the global video game market +- Average adult watches more than 5 hours of video per day +- U.S. newspaper industry revenue declined from ~$60 billion in 2000 to ~$20 billion by 2020 (down 2/3) -- 2.45.2