decisions/internet-finance/metadao-meta036-hanson-futarchy-research.md

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+# META-036: Academic Research on Futarchy Information Aggregation
+
+**Proposer:** Robin Hanson (futarchy inventor)
+**Amount:** $80,007 USDC
+**Duration:** 6 months
+**Institution:** George Mason University
+
+## Structure
+
+- **Principal Investigator:** Robin Hanson (summer salary ~$30K)
+- **Co-Investigator:** Dr. Daniel Houser (~$6K)
+- **Graduate Research Assistant:** ~$19K
+- **Participant Payments:** $25K (500 students at $50 each)
+- **IRB-reviewed controlled experiments**
+
+## Significance
+
+First rigorous experimental study of futarchy's information-aggregation efficiency. The proposal itself acknowledges that Mechanism B (information acquisition and strategic revelation through financial stakes) lacks controlled experimental validation, despite being the theoretical foundation for futarchy's epistemic advantage.
+
+## Study Design Implications
+
+The controlled experiment design (500 students, laboratory conditions) will primarily test Mechanism A (calibration selection under incentives) rather than Mechanism B. Testing Mechanism B requires real-money market contexts where private information naturally flows to prices through financial stakes—difficult to replicate in controlled settings.
+
+## Market Response
+
+**Decision Market Status (as of March 21, 2026):**
+- Likelihood: 50%
+- Volume: $42.16K
+- Duration: ~2 days remaining
+
+The even split reveals community calibration about the marginal value of academic validation. Possible interpretations:
+1. Skepticism about academic validation translating to ecosystem growth
+2. Indifference to academic legitimacy among participants already convinced of futarchy
+3. Cost-benefit concerns about $80K relative to expected benefit
+
+## Recursive Epistemic Structure
+
+META-036 represents MetaDAO using futarchy governance to fund futarchy research—a recursive structure where the decision mechanism itself validates (or invalidates) the value of validating the mechanism. If passed, the market reveals belief that academic legitimacy increases ecosystem value. If failed, the market says academic validation doesn't matter for token price.
+
+## Expected Outcomes
+
+- First experimental data on futarchy information aggregation (anticipated late 2026)
+- Academic publication establishing futarchy in experimental economics literature
+- Potential follow-up studies with real-money markets to test Mechanism B
+
+## Budget Realism
+
+$80K is standard small-grant scale for experimental economics at major research universities. Hanson is treating this as serious academic work, not advisory arrangement.

inbox/queue/2026-03-23-meta036-mechanism-b-implications-research-synthesis.md

@@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-03-21
 domain: internet-finance
 secondary_domains: [mechanisms, collective-intelligence]
 format: research-note
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 priority: high
 tags: [metadao, robin-hanson, futarchy, mechanism-b, information-aggregation, academic-research, gmu]
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-23
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -64,3 +67,12 @@ The META-036 study may produce the first empirical data on Mechanism A in futarc
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds]]
 WHY ARCHIVED: Research synthesis note identifying that META-036 creates a documented gap in the KB's Mechanism B evidence — the operative theoretical claim for Belief #1 has no experimental validation, and the first study to provide it is now funded (conditional on vote outcome)
 EXTRACTION HINT: The core extraction is NOT a claim but a belief update: the Session 9 claim candidate ("two separable epistemic mechanisms") should include a scope note that Mechanism B is theoretically grounded but experimentally unvalidated. META-036 is the first attempt to close this gap.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- META-036 proposes $80,007 USDC for 6-month GMU research study
+- Study led by Robin Hanson (PI) and Dr. Daniel Houser (co-PI)
+- Budget: ~$30K Hanson salary, ~$19K GRA, $25K participant payments (500 students at $50 each), ~$6K Houser
+- Decision market status March 21, 2026: 50% likelihood, $42.16K volume, ~2 days remaining
+- Study is IRB-reviewed controlled experiment
+- Expected results late 2026