decisions/internet-finance/metadao-meta036-hanson-futarchy-research.md

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+# META-036: Futarchy Research Funding
+
+**Proposer:** Robin Hanson (futarchy inventor)
+**Amount:** $80,007 USDC
+**Duration:** 6 months
+**Institution:** George Mason University
+
+## Research Design
+
+- **Participants:** 500 students ($50 compensation each)
+- **Co-investigator:** Dr. Daniel Houser
+- **Oversight:** IRB-reviewed controlled experiments
+- **Objective:** Produce "first rigorous experimental evidence on information-aggregation efficiency of futarchy governance"
+
+## Budget Breakdown
+
+- Hanson summer salary: ~$30K
+- Graduate Research Assistant: ~$19K
+- Participant payments: $25K
+- Houser co-PI: ~$6K
+
+## Decision Market Status (as of March 21, 2026)
+
+- **Likelihood:** 50%
+- **Volume:** $42.16K
+- **Time remaining:** ~2 days
+
+## Epistemic Significance
+
+The proposal confirms that Mechanism B (information acquisition and strategic revelation through financial stakes) is considered empirically open by futarchy's inventor. The study design can test Mechanism A (calibration selection) more directly than Mechanism B, which requires real-money market contexts. This represents the first attempt to close the documented gap between theoretical grounding and experimental validation of futarchy's core information aggregation mechanisms.
+
+## Market Interpretation
+
+The 50% likelihood reveals even split on whether academic validation benefits META token price, potentially reflecting:
+- Skepticism about academic validation translating to ecosystem growth
+- Indifference to academic legitimacy among participants who already believe in futarchy
+- Concerns about $80K cost relative to expected benefit
+
+The even split is evidence of calibration about marginal value of academic validation, not evidence against futarchy working.
+
+## Recursive Structure
+
+META-036 represents MetaDAO using futarchy governance to fund futarchy research — a recursive structure with interesting epistemic properties. If passed, the market reveals belief that academic validation increases ecosystem value. If failed, the market says academic validation doesn't matter. Either outcome is informative about the MetaDAO community's theory of legitimacy.

inbox/queue/2026-03-23-meta036-mechanism-b-implications-research-synthesis.md

@@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-03-21
 domain: internet-finance
 secondary_domains: [mechanisms, collective-intelligence]
 format: research-note
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 priority: high
 tags: [metadao, robin-hanson, futarchy, mechanism-b, information-aggregation, academic-research, gmu]
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-25
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -64,3 +67,12 @@ The META-036 study may produce the first empirical data on Mechanism A in futarc
 PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds]]
 WHY ARCHIVED: Research synthesis note identifying that META-036 creates a documented gap in the KB's Mechanism B evidence — the operative theoretical claim for Belief #1 has no experimental validation, and the first study to provide it is now funded (conditional on vote outcome)
 EXTRACTION HINT: The core extraction is NOT a claim but a belief update: the Session 9 claim candidate ("two separable epistemic mechanisms") should include a scope note that Mechanism B is theoretically grounded but experimentally unvalidated. META-036 is the first attempt to close this gap.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- META-036 proposed $80,007 USDC for 6-month academic futarchy research at George Mason University
+- Study design: 500 student participants at $50 each, IRB-reviewed
+- Budget: Hanson summer salary ~$30K, GRA ~$19K, participant payments $25K, Houser co-PI ~$6K
+- Decision market status (March 21, 2026): 50% likelihood, $42.16K volume, ~2 days remaining
+- Co-investigator: Dr. Daniel Houser
+- Research objective: 'first rigorous experimental evidence on information-aggregation efficiency of futarchy governance'