theseus: extract claims from 2026-04-22-theseus-multilayer-probe-scav-robustness-synthesis #3642

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@ -30,3 +30,10 @@ The 29-78% AUROC improvement occurs because deception-relevant concept direction
**Source:** Theseus synthetic analysis (2026-04-22)
Nordby et al.'s clean-data accuracy improvements do not translate to adversarial robustness. White-box multi-layer SCAV can suppress concept directions at all monitored layers simultaneously through higher-dimensional optimization. Open-weights models gain no structural protection from multi-layer ensembles against adversarially-sophisticated attackers with model access.
## Extending Evidence
**Source:** Theseus synthetic analysis
The 29-78% AUROC improvement is a clean-data accuracy result. Nordby et al. did not test adversarial robustness. Under white-box adversarial conditions (open-weights models), multi-layer ensembles provide no structural protection against SCAV-generalization attacks. The improvement applies only to non-adversarial monitoring contexts.

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@ -24,3 +24,10 @@ The method characterizes alignment-relevant properties as geometric patterns in
**Source:** Theseus synthetic analysis (2026-04-22)
Trajectory geometry monitoring does create adversarial attack surfaces through multi-layer SCAV generalization. The claim that geometric approaches avoid attack surface creation is incorrect for white-box adversaries with access to model weights. May need qualification to 'black-box adversaries only, contingent on rotation pattern specificity.'
## Challenging Evidence
**Source:** Theseus synthetic analysis of multi-layer SCAV feasibility
Multi-layer trajectory geometry monitoring (ensemble probes across layers) does create adversarial attack surface in white-box settings. White-box multi-layer SCAV can suppress concept directions at all monitored layers simultaneously. The claim that trajectory geometry avoids attack surfaces may need qualification: it may hold only for black-box adversaries if rotation patterns are model-specific, but not for white-box adversaries with access to model weights.

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@ -31,3 +31,10 @@ The dual-use finding now extends to multi-layer ensemble monitoring with deploym
**Source:** Theseus synthetic analysis (2026-04-22)
The dual-use vulnerability extends to multi-layer ensemble monitoring, not just single-layer probes. However, the severity is deployment-context-dependent: open-weights models (white-box adversaries) remain fully vulnerable, while closed-source models (black-box adversaries) may gain protection if rotation patterns are model-specific (untested assumption).
## Extending Evidence
**Source:** Theseus synthetic analysis of Nordby et al. + SCAV
Multi-layer ensemble probes do not escape the dual-use structure in white-box settings (open-weights models). White-box multi-layer SCAV is feasible by computing concept directions at each monitored layer and constructing a single perturbation that suppresses all simultaneously. The monitoring precision hierarchy holds: each level is structurally defeatable given sufficient attacker capability. Multi-layer ensembles raise attack cost but do not escape the dual-use structure for open-weights deployments.