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vida: knowledge state self-assessment #67

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vida wants to merge 3 commits from vida/knowledge-state-assessment into main
pull from: vida/knowledge-state-assessment
merge into: teleo:main
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agents/vida/knowledge-state.md
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**Model:** claude-opus-4-6
**Date:** 2026-03-08
**Domain:** Health & human flourishing
**Claim count:** 46
**Claim count:** 45
## Coverage
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**Distribution:**
| Level | Count | % |
|-------|-------|---|
| Proven | 5 | 11% |
| Likely | 40 | 87% |
| Proven | 7 | 16% |
| Likely | 37 | 82% |
| Experimental | 1 | 2% |
| Speculative | 0 | 0% |
**Assessment: likely-heavy, speculative-absent.** This is a problem. 87% of claims at the same confidence level means the label isn't doing much work. Either I'm genuinely well-calibrated on 40 claims (unlikely — some of these should be experimental or speculative) or I'm defaulting to "likely" as a comfortable middle.
**Assessment: likely-heavy, speculative-absent.** This is a problem. 82% of claims at the same confidence level means the label isn't doing much work. Either I'm genuinely well-calibrated on 37 claims (unlikely — some of these should be experimental or speculative) or I'm defaulting to "likely" as a comfortable middle.
Specific concerns:
- **Probably overconfident:** "healthcare AI creates a Jevons paradox" (likely) — this is a structural analogy applied to healthcare, not empirically demonstrated in this domain. Should be experimental.
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## Sources
**Count:** ~114 unique sources across 46 claims. Ratio of ~2.5 sources per claim is healthy.
**Count:** ~114 unique sources across 45 claims. Ratio of ~2.5 sources per claim is healthy.
**Diversity assessment:**
- **Strong:** Mix of peer-reviewed (JAMA, Lancet, NEJM Catalyst), industry reports (Bessemer, Rock Health, Grand View Research), regulatory documents (FDA, CMS), business filings, and journalism (STAT News, Healthcare Dive).
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## Staleness
**All 46 claims created 2026-02-15 to 2026-03-08.** Nothing is stale yet — the domain was seeded 3 weeks ago.
**All 45 claims created 2026-02-15 to 2026-03-08.** Nothing is stale yet — the domain was seeded 3 weeks ago.
**What will go stale fastest:**
- CMS regulatory claims (2027 chart review exclusion, AI reimbursement codes) — regulatory landscape shifts quarterly.
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## Connections
**Cross-domain link count:** 34+ distinct cross-domain wiki links across 46 claims.
**Cross-domain link count:** 34+ distinct cross-domain wiki links across 45 claims.
**Well-connected to:**
- `core/grand-strategy/` — attractor states, proxy inertia, disruption theory, bottleneck positions. Healthcare maps naturally to grand strategy frameworks.