---
type: entity
entity_type: company
name: "Polymarket"
domain: internet-finance
handles: ["@Polymarket"]
website: https://polymarket.com
status: active
tracked_by: rio
created: 2026-03-11
last_updated: 2026-03-11
founded: 2020-06-01
founders: ["[[shayne-coplan]]"]
category: "Prediction market platform (Polygon/Ethereum L2)"
stage: growth
funding: "ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested up to $2B"
key_metrics:
  monthly_volume_30d: "$8.7B (March 2026)"
  daily_volume_24h: "$390M (March 2026)"
  daily_record: "$478M single-day (Iran strikes, March 2026)"
  february_2026_volume: "$7B+ (7.5x YoY increase)"
  election_accuracy: "94%+ one month before resolution; 98% on winners"
  valuation: "~$8B pre-money (before ICE investment)"
competitors: ["[[kalshi]]", "[[augur]]", "Coinbase", "Robinhood"]
built_on: ["Polygon"]
tags: ["prediction-markets", "decision-markets", "information-aggregation"]
---

# Polymarket

## Overview
Crypto-native prediction market platform on Polygon. Users trade binary outcome contracts on real-world events (politics, economics, sports, crypto). Built on USDC. Vindicated by 2024 US presidential election — called Trump victory when polls showed a toss-up. Now the world's largest prediction market by volume.

## Current State
- **Volume**: $390M daily avg, $8.7B 30-day (March 2026). February 2026 exceeded $7B (7.5x YoY). Daily record $478M on Iran strikes. Geopolitical events driving volume surge — Iran-related markets alone exceeded $529M in stakes.
- **Accuracy**: 94%+ one month before outcome resolution; 98% on calling winners
- **US access**: Returned to US users after CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation (November 2025). Acquired QCX LLC (CFTC-regulated exchange) in July 2025 to enable intermediated US trading through Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs).
- **Valuation**: ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested $2B (October 2025) at ~$8B pre-money. ICE role: global distributor of Polymarket's event-driven data. NYSE's parent company betting on prediction market data as financial information product.
- **Market creation**: Permissionless — anyone can create markets. Expanding beyond politics into crypto, stocks, climate, AI, pop culture, sports.
- **Content strategy**: Operating as breaking-news aggregator — tweets are "BREAKING" headlines with odds. Building audience via news, converting to market participants.

## Timeline
- **2020-06** — Founded by Shayne Coplan (age 22, NYU dropout). Pivoted from earlier DeFi project Union Market.
- **2022-01** — CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4M for operating unregistered binary options market; ordered to cease and desist. Blocked US users.
- **2024-11** — 2024 US presidential election: $3.7B total volume. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump victory; polls showed toss-up. Major vindication moment for prediction markets.
- **2025-10** — Monthly volume exceeded $3B
- **2025-11** — CFTC approved Amended Order of Designation as regulated contract market
- **2025-12** — Relaunched for US users (invite-only, restricted markets)
- **2026-03** — Combined Polymarket+Kalshi weekly record: $5.35B (week of March 2-8, 2026)

## Competitive Position
- **#1 by volume** — leads Kalshi on 30-day volume ($8.7B vs $6.8B). Dominates political/geopolitical markets.
- **Crypto-native**: USDC on Polygon, non-custodial, permissionless market creation
- **vs Kalshi**: Duopoly forming. Polymarket = crypto-native/politics-dominant. Kalshi = regulated/sports-dominant. Polymarket's ICE deal prices prediction market data as financial information product — competing on data distribution, not just trading.
- **New competitors entering**: Coinbase (acquired The Clearing Company), Robinhood, FanDuel ($200-300M from Flutter), Fanatics. Category attracting serious institutional capital.
- **Not governance**: Polymarket aggregates information but doesn't govern organizations. Same mechanism class as MetaDAO (conditional markets), different application.

## Investment Thesis
Polymarket proved prediction markets work at scale. The 2024 election vindication created a permanent legitimacy shift — prediction markets are now the reference standard for forecasting, not polls. Growth trajectory accelerating. Key risk: regulatory capture (CFTC constraints on market types), competition from Kalshi on institutional/mainstream side.

**Thesis status:** ACTIVE

## Relationship to KB
- [[Polymarket vindicated prediction markets over polling in 2024 US election]] — core vindication claim
- [[speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds]] — mechanism theory Polymarket demonstrates
- [[decision markets fail in three systematic categories where legitimacy thin information or herding dynamics make voting or deliberation structurally superior]] — boundary conditions apply to Polymarket too (thin-information markets showed media-tracking behavior during early COVID)

---

Relevant Entities:
- [[kalshi]] — primary competitor (regulated)
- [[metadao]] — same mechanism class, different application (governance vs prediction)

Topics:
- [[internet finance and decision markets]]