# Fourth Circuit Kalshi Maryland Preemption Case

**Case:** KalshiEX LLC v. Martin, No. 25-1892
**Court:** United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit
**Status:** Oral argument held May 7, 2026
**Issue:** Whether Maryland Gaming Commission can regulate Kalshi's sports event contracts despite CFTC registration

## Background

District court (Judge Adam B. Abelson) denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction on August 1, 2025, finding state gaming authority can coexist with CFTC regulation.

## Oral Argument (May 7, 2026)

**Kalshi counsel:** William E. Havemann (14 min + 6 min rebuttal)
**Maryland counsel:** Max F. Brauer (20 min)
**Time:** 9:30 a.m.

**Framing:** Covers.com characterized the case as Kalshi's "Quacks Like a Duck" problem, indicating the core issue is whether sports event contracts are substantively identical to betting despite CFTC registration.

## Predicted Outcome

Pre-argument analysis predicted Fourth Circuit will follow district court precedent and rule pro-state (anti-Kalshi). If so, creates 2-1 circuit split with Third Circuit (pro-Kalshi), making SCOTUS cert near-certain.

## Significance

The "quacks like a duck" framing suggests the panel may approach the case with functional analysis (does it work like betting?) rather than formal/structural analysis (is it properly classified as a swap?). A functional-analysis court would be more hostile to structural/endogeneity defenses.

## Timeline

- **2025-08-01** — District Judge Adam B. Abelson denied Kalshi's preliminary injunction
- **2026-05-07** — Oral argument held before Fourth Circuit panel