---
type: entity
entity_type: person
name: Mikhail Samin
status: active
domains: [internet-finance]
---

# Mikhail Samin

LessWrong contributor who has written on futarchy's causal-inference properties.

## Timeline

- **2025-06-27** — Published "No, Futarchy Doesn't Have This EDT Flaw" on LessWrong, arguing that conditional markets can be structured to track causal effects

## Known Work

- Addressed earlier EDT (Evidential Decision Theory) framings of the futarchy critique, predating Rasmont's specific Bronze Bull/selection-correlation formulation
- Argued that conditional market structure can resolve the evidential-vs-causal problem

## Significance

Represents pre-Rasmont attempts to address the causal-inference problem in futarchy, though did not specifically address the selection-correlation mechanism that Rasmont later formalized.