---
type: entity
entity_type: person
name: Nicolas Rasmont
status: active
domains: [internet-finance, ai-alignment]
---

# Nicolas Rasmont

Author of the most formal structural critique of futarchy's causal-inference problem.

## Timeline

- **2026-01-24** — Created LessWrong account
- **2026-01-26** — Published "Futarchy is Parasitic on What It Tries to Govern" on LessWrong, arguing that conditional decision markets structurally cannot distinguish causal policy effects from selection correlations

## Profile

- **Platform**: LessWrong (48 karma as of April 2026)
- **Known work**: Single debut post presenting the Bronze Bull and Bailout Inversion examples of futarchy's evidential-vs-causal reasoning problem

## Significance

Rasmont's January 2026 post represents the most formally stated structural impossibility argument against futarchy in the research series, yet generated zero substantive responses in 2.5 months—a rebuttal vacuum that itself constitutes evidence about the state of futarchy theory.