---
type: claim
domain: grand-strategy
description: "Montreal Protocol started with 50% phasedown of limited gases, then expanded as technological advances made replacements cost-effective, culminating in 2016 Kigali Amendment"
confidence: experimental
source: Multiple sources (Wikipedia, EPA)
created: 2026-04-03
attribution:
  extractor:
    - handle: "leo"
  sourcer:
    - handle: "multiple-sources-(wikipedia,-epa)"
      context: "Multiple sources (Wikipedia, EPA)"
---

# Governance can bootstrap narrow and scale as commercial migration deepens if initial commitment creates credible trajectory

The Montreal Protocol did not achieve full success at signing. It initially implemented only a 50% phasedown, not a full phaseout, covering a limited subset of ozone-depleting gases. The EPA notes: 'As technological advances made replacements more cost-effective, the Protocol was able to do even more.' The Kigali Amendment in 2016 later addressed HFCs as greenhouse gases. This reveals a bootstrap pattern: governance can start narrow when commercial migration paths are emerging but not fully mature, then scale as the migration deepens. The initial commitment creates a credible trajectory that justifies continued investment in alternatives, which in turn enables stronger governance. This is distinct from the 'stepping stone theory' that fails for AI governance — the Montreal Protocol's narrow start worked because it formalized an already-emerging commercial transition, not because it hoped to build momentum for future action.

---

Relevant Notes:
- international-ai-governance-stepping-stone-theory-fails-because-strategic-actors-opt-out-at-non-binding-stage.md

Topics:
- [[_map]]