teleo-codex/inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-21-academic-prediction-market-failure-modes.json
Teleo Agents 2174c95819 extract: 2026-03-21-academic-prediction-market-failure-modes
Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>
2026-03-21 22:47:37 +00:00

46 lines
No EOL
2.8 KiB
JSON

{
"rejected_claims": [
{
"filename": "prediction-market-participation-concentrates-in-top-50-traders-approximating-expert-panels-not-crowds.md",
"issues": [
"missing_attribution_extractor"
]
},
{
"filename": "calibrated-self-reported-beliefs-match-prediction-market-accuracy-in-geopolitical-forecasting.md",
"issues": [
"missing_attribution_extractor"
]
},
{
"filename": "futarchy-metric-endogeneity-creates-circular-optimization-when-market-prices-correlate-with-target-metric.md",
"issues": [
"missing_attribution_extractor"
]
}
],
"validation_stats": {
"total": 3,
"kept": 0,
"fixed": 9,
"rejected": 3,
"fixes_applied": [
"prediction-market-participation-concentrates-in-top-50-traders-approximating-expert-panels-not-crowds.md:set_created:2026-03-21",
"prediction-market-participation-concentrates-in-top-50-traders-approximating-expert-panels-not-crowds.md:stripped_wiki_link:futarchy-is-manipulation-resistant-because-attack-attempts-c",
"prediction-market-participation-concentrates-in-top-50-traders-approximating-expert-panels-not-crowds.md:stripped_wiki_link:speculative-markets-aggregate-information-through-incentive-",
"calibrated-self-reported-beliefs-match-prediction-market-accuracy-in-geopolitical-forecasting.md:set_created:2026-03-21",
"calibrated-self-reported-beliefs-match-prediction-market-accuracy-in-geopolitical-forecasting.md:stripped_wiki_link:speculative-markets-aggregate-information-through-incentive-",
"calibrated-self-reported-beliefs-match-prediction-market-accuracy-in-geopolitical-forecasting.md:stripped_wiki_link:Polymarket-vindicated-prediction-markets-over-polling-in-202",
"futarchy-metric-endogeneity-creates-circular-optimization-when-market-prices-correlate-with-target-metric.md:set_created:2026-03-21",
"futarchy-metric-endogeneity-creates-circular-optimization-when-market-prices-correlate-with-target-metric.md:stripped_wiki_link:futarchy-markets-can-price-cultural-spending-proposals-by-tr",
"futarchy-metric-endogeneity-creates-circular-optimization-when-market-prices-correlate-with-target-metric.md:stripped_wiki_link:coin-price-is-the-fairest-objective-function-for-asset-futar"
],
"rejections": [
"prediction-market-participation-concentrates-in-top-50-traders-approximating-expert-panels-not-crowds.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
"calibrated-self-reported-beliefs-match-prediction-market-accuracy-in-geopolitical-forecasting.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
"futarchy-metric-endogeneity-creates-circular-optimization-when-market-prices-correlate-with-target-metric.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
]
},
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
"date": "2026-03-21"
}