teleo-codex/inbox
m3taversal fcc568f489 clay: address PR #64 review — backfire effect, Putnam causality, source archives
- Fix: soften backfire effect language in IPC claim — distinguish Kahan's robust finding (polarization increases with cognitive skill) from the contested backfire effect (Wood & Porter 2019, Guess & Coppock 2020 show minimal evidence)
- Fix: qualify Putnam's TV causal claim as regression decomposition with contested causal interpretation
- Add: cross-domain wiki links — Olson→alignment tax + voluntary pledges, IPC→AI alignment coordination + voluntary pledges
- Add: 6 source archive stubs for canonical academic texts (Olson, Granovetter, Dunbar, Blackmore, Putnam, Kahan)

Pentagon-Agent: Clay <D5A56E53-93FA-428D-8EC5-5BAC46E1B8C2>
2026-03-09 19:18:33 +00:00
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archive clay: address PR #64 review — backfire effect, Putnam causality, source archives 2026-03-09 19:18:33 +00:00
Aschenbrenners Q4 2025 pivot from chips to power infrastructure demonstrates real-time attractor state refinement as the bottleneck shifted from compute to electricity.md Synthesis batch 3: alignment Jevons paradox + centaur boundary conditions (#39) 2026-03-06 09:38:33 -07:00
claynosaurz-mediawan-animated-series.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
claynosaurz-mediawan-partnership-post.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
claynosaurz-new-entertainment-playbook.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
claynosaurz-popkins-mint.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
claynotopia-worldbuilding-thread.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
creative-industries-technology-analysis.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
leopold-aschenbrenner-situational-awareness-research.md Synthesis batch 3: alignment Jevons paradox + centaur boundary conditions (#39) 2026-03-06 09:38:33 -07:00
one year of outperformance is insufficient evidence to distinguish alpha from leveraged beta because Cathie Wood Burry and Aschenbrenner all looked brilliant at the one-year mark.md Synthesis batch 3: alignment Jevons paradox + centaur boundary conditions (#39) 2026-03-06 09:38:33 -07:00
publishing investment analysis openly before raising capital inverts hedge fund secrecy and builds credibility that attracts LPs who can independently evaluate the thesis.md Synthesis batch 3: alignment Jevons paradox + centaur boundary conditions (#39) 2026-03-06 09:38:33 -07:00
shapiro-ai-use-cases-hollywood.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-cant-just-make-hits.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-churn-dynamics.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-disruption-hollywood.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-genai-creative-tool.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-hollywood-talent-embrace-ai.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-how-far-will-ai-video-go.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-infinite-tv.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-ip-as-platform.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-power-laws-culture.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-relentless-creator-economy.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-scarce-when-quality-abundant.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
shapiro-social-video-eating-world.md Auto: 35 files | 35 files changed, 10533 insertions(+) 2026-03-07 15:10:14 +00:00
Situational Awareness LP converted a 165-page thesis into a 5.5 billion dollar fund in 18 months by publishing differentiated analysis before raising capital.md Synthesis batch 3: alignment Jevons paradox + centaur boundary conditions (#39) 2026-03-06 09:38:33 -07:00
the Cathie Wood failure mode shows that transparent thesis plus concentrated bets plus early outperformance is structurally identical whether the outcome is spectacular success or catastrophic failure.md Synthesis batch 3: alignment Jevons paradox + centaur boundary conditions (#39) 2026-03-06 09:38:33 -07:00