extract: 2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market

Pentagon-Agent: Epimetheus <3D35839A-7722-4740-B93D-51157F7D5E70>

inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.json

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+{
+  "rejected_claims": [
+    {
+      "filename": "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md",
+      "issues": [
+        "missing_attribution_extractor"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "validation_stats": {
+    "total": 1,
+    "kept": 0,
+    "fixed": 3,
+    "rejected": 1,
+    "fixes_applied": [
+      "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:set_created:2026-03-26",
+      "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:stripped_wiki_link:futarchy-is-manipulation-resistant-because-attack-attempts-c",
+      "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:stripped_wiki_link:prediction-market-boom-is-primarily-a-sports-gambling-boom-w"
+    ],
+    "rejections": [
+      "prediction-market-participation-by-issuers-in-own-ico-commitment-markets-creates-circular-social-proof-with-no-arbitrage-correction.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
+    ]
+  },
+  "model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
+  "date": "2026-03-26"
+}

inbox/queue/2026-03-26-polymarket-p2p-protocol-commitment-market.md

@@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-03-26
 domain: internet-finance
 secondary_domains: []
 format: data
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: high
 tags: [polymarket, p2p-protocol, prediction-markets, futarchy, metadao, social-proof, manipulation]
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-26
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -76,3 +79,17 @@ PRIMARY CONNECTION: Session 11 CC2 — "Prediction market participation by proje
 WHY ARCHIVED: The probability shift from 77% to 99.8% on launch day combined with only $6,852 actual commitments creates a testable tension. This is the most direct current evidence for or against the circular social proof mechanism. ALSO: the raw probability cascade data is the primary input for any claim about Polymarket's accuracy on futarchy ICO markets.
 
 EXTRACTION HINT: Wait for ICO close (March 30) and Polymarket resolution (July 1) before extracting the final claim. The mechanism claim can be extracted now; the empirical confirmation/disconfirmation must wait. Flag as "extract after resolution" for the highest-confidence version.
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Polymarket P2P Protocol ICO commitment prediction market opened March 14, 2026
+- Market has 25 outcome tiers ranging from >$1M to >$100M
+- Total trading volume on the market: $1.7M as of March 26, 2026
+- Market closes July 1, 2026
+- As of March 26 (ICO launch day): >$6M probability was 99.8%, >$8M was 97%, >$10M was 93%
+- Actual ICO commitments as of March 26: $6,852 of $6M target
+- ICO closes March 30, 2026 (4 days after launch)
+- Previous probability for >$6M was 77% as of approximately March 14
+- Implied median prediction: $20-25M total commitments
+- Polymarket rules prohibit market participants from influencing outcomes they're trading on
+- Traders in Polymarket comment section alleged P2P team 'openly participated' in the market (unconfirmed)