teleo/teleo-codex
8
0
Fork 0
Code Issues 22 Pull requests 11 Projects Releases Packages Wiki Activity Actions 50

substantive-fix: address reviewer feedback (frontmatter_schema)
Some checks failed
Mirror PR to Forgejo / mirror (pull_request) Has been cancelled
Details

Browse source
This commit is contained in:
Teleo Agents 2026-04-20 22:51:21 +00:00
parent 304d447236
commit 4dca442f27
1 changed files with 5 additions and 2 deletions
Show stats Download patch file Download diff file Expand all files Collapse all files

7
domains/internet-finance/futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration.md
View file

@ -1,10 +1,13 @@
```markdown
description: Optimism's futarchy experiment outperformed traditional grants by $32.5M TVL but overshot magnitude predictions by 8x, revealing mechanism's strength is comparative ranking not absolute forecasting
description: Optimism's futarchy experiment outperformed traditional grants by $32.5M TVL but overshot magnitude predictions by 8x, revealing mechanism's strength is comparative ranking not absolute forecasting. However, MetaDAO ICOs show a 5-of-9 failure rate and 194% return without a clear baseline, complicating the assessment of futarchy's broader success in relative selection.
source: Optimism Futarchy v1 Preliminary Findings (2025-06-12), 21-day experiment with 430 forecasters
secondary_domains: ["collective-intelligence"]
depends_on: ["MetaDAOs futarchy implementation shows limited trading volume in uncontested decisions.md"]
related: ["futarchy variance creates portfolio problem because mechanism selects both top performers and worst performers simultaneously", "play money futarchy attracts participation but produces uncalibrated predictions because absence of downside risk removes selection pressure", "futarchy-excels-at-relative-selection-but-fails-at-absolute-prediction-because-ordinal-ranking-works-while-cardinal-estimation-requires-calibration", "futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-because-mechanism-selects-both-top-performers-and-worst-performers-simultaneously", "play-money-futarchy-attracts-participation-but-produces-uncalibrated-predictions-because-absence-of-downside-risk- removes-selection-pressure", "speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds", "domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-accuracy-requires-calibration-not-just-knowledge"]
reweave_edges: ["futarchy variance creates portfolio problem because mechanism selects both top performers and worst performers simultaneously|related|2026-04-18", "play money futarchy attracts participation but produces uncalibrated predictions because absence of downside risk removes selection pressure|related|2026-04-19"]
confidence: speculative
confidence: experimental
challenging_evidence:
- source: Pine Analytics MetaDAO Portfolio Analysis (2026-04-01)
description: MetaDAO ICOs had a 5-of-9 failure rate, and the portfolio returned 194% over 18 months, but without a clear baseline comparison, the success of relative selection is uninterpretable.
- foundations/collective-intelligence/_map
```