calibrate: 5 confidence downgrades based on evidence strength

- punctuated-equilibrium: experimental → speculative (Bak-Sneppen as
  THE mechanism is actively debated in biology)
- recursive-improvement: likely → experimental (broad meta-claim)
- riding-waves: likely → experimental (strategic framework, limited
  empirical testing)
- value-flows-to-scarcity: likely → experimental (framework)
- independent-judgment: likely → experimental (behavioral claim)

Kept proven: hill-climbing, simulated-annealing, mechanism-design,
Vickrey, path-dependence, product-space (all textbook/Nobel-level).
Kept likely: EMH, cascades, Hayek, Rumelt strategy claims, Markov
blankets, existential risk (all well-cited with broad acceptance).

Pentagon-Agent: Leo <D35C9237-A739-432E-A3DB-20D52D1577A9>

domains/grand-strategy/good-strategy-requires-independent-judgment-that-resists-social-consensus-because-when-everyone-calibrates-off-each-other-nobody-anchors-to-fundamentals.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 type: claim
 domain: grand-strategy
 description: "Strategic insight requires forming views from primary evidence rather than from the consensus of other strategists -- social calibration produces correlated errors that cascade"
-confidence: likely
+confidence: experimental
 source: "Rumelt (2011), Kahneman (anchoring, 1974), Soros (reflexivity, 1987), Keynes (beauty contest, 1936)"
 created: 2026-04-21
 secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence, internet-finance]

domains/grand-strategy/recursive-improvement-is-the-engine-of-human-progress-because-we-get-better-at-getting-better.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 type: claim
 domain: grand-strategy
 description: "The compounding of meta-capability -- improving the rate of improvement itself -- is the mechanism that separates civilizational progress from biological evolution"
-confidence: likely
+confidence: experimental
 source: "m3taversal (Architectural Investing manuscript), Deutsch 'The Beginning of Infinity' (2011), Mokyr 'The Lever of Riches' (1990)"
 created: 2026-04-21
 secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence, ai-alignment]

domains/grand-strategy/riding-waves-of-change-requires-anticipating-the-attractor-state-and-positioning-before-incumbents-respond-through-their-predictable-inertia.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 type: claim
 domain: grand-strategy
 description: "Strategic advantage during transitions comes from reading where the system is headed (attractor state) and positioning while incumbents are still optimizing for the current equilibrium"
-confidence: likely
+confidence: experimental
 source: "Rumelt (2011), Grove 'Only the Paranoid Survive' (1996), Gaddis 'On Grand Strategy' (2018)"
 created: 2026-04-21
 secondary_domains: [mechanisms]

domains/grand-strategy/value-flows-to-whichever-resources-are-scarce-and-disruption-shifts-which-resources-are-scarce-making-resource-scarcity-analysis-the-core-strategic-framework.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 type: claim
 domain: grand-strategy
 description: "Every disruption is a scarcity shift -- what was scarce becomes abundant and what was abundant becomes scarce, and value migrates accordingly"
-confidence: likely
+confidence: experimental
 source: "m3taversal (Architectural Investing manuscript), Christensen (commoditization/de-commoditization, 2003), Thompson (Aggregation Theory)"
 created: 2026-04-21
 secondary_domains: [internet-finance, entertainment]

domains/mechanisms/punctuated-equilibrium-emerges-from-darwinian-microevolution-without-additional-principles-because-extremal-dynamics-on-coupled-fitness-landscapes-self-organize-to-criticality.md

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
 type: claim
 domain: mechanisms
 description: "Long stasis interrupted by rapid change is not a separate evolutionary mechanism -- it's the emergent behavior of coupled adaptive systems that push each other to the edge of instability"
-confidence: experimental
+confidence: speculative
 source: "Bak and Sneppen (1993), Gould and Eldredge (1972), Kauffman 'Origins of Order' (1993), Bak 'How Nature Works' (1996)"
 created: 2026-04-21
 secondary_domains: [grand-strategy, collective-intelligence]