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Teleo Agents 2026-03-23 17:01:53 +00:00
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domains/internet-finance/domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-accuracy-requires-calibration-not-just-knowledge.md
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@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Play-money structure is the primary confound—Badge Holders may have treated th
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
*Source: [[2026-03-21-academic-prediction-market-failure-modes]] | Added: 2026-03-21*
*Source: 2026-03-21-academic-prediction-market-failure-modes | Added: 2026-03-21*
The participation concentration finding (top 50 traders = 70% of volume) supports this by showing that markets are dominated by a small group of highly active traders, suggesting trading skill and activity level matter more than broad domain knowledge distribution.