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extract: 2026-03-22-fed-research-kalshi-cpi-prediction-accuracy

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@ -7,9 +7,12 @@ date: 2026-03-16
domain: internet-finance domain: internet-finance
secondary_domains: [] secondary_domains: []
format: article format: article
status: unprocessed status: enrichment
priority: medium priority: medium
tags: [prediction-markets, kalshi, federal-reserve, cpi, accuracy, academic, markets-beat-consensus, macro-forecasting] tags: [prediction-markets, kalshi, federal-reserve, cpi, accuracy, academic, markets-beat-consensus, macro-forecasting]
processed_by: rio
processed_date: 2026-03-22
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
--- ---
## Content ## Content
@ -56,3 +59,12 @@ A Federal Reserve Board paper (authors: Diercks, Katz, Wright) published March 2
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[speculative markets aggregate information more accurately than expert consensus or voting systems]] PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[speculative markets aggregate information more accurately than expert consensus or voting systems]]
WHY ARCHIVED: Federal Reserve institutional validation of real-money prediction market accuracy; complements the Mellers academic literature and rounds out the evidence base for Belief #1's grounding claims WHY ARCHIVED: Federal Reserve institutional validation of real-money prediction market accuracy; complements the Mellers academic literature and rounds out the evidence base for Belief #1's grounding claims
EXTRACTION HINT: Archive as supporting evidence for the prediction markets accuracy claim, scoped to "structured macroeconomic event prediction." The FOMC-day perfect match finding is the most archivable specific claim. Note it doesn't address financial selection. EXTRACTION HINT: Archive as supporting evidence for the prediction markets accuracy claim, scoped to "structured macroeconomic event prediction." The FOMC-day perfect match finding is the most archivable specific claim. Note it doesn't address financial selection.
## Key Facts
- Federal Reserve Board published FEDS paper by Diercks, Katz, Wright in March 2026 evaluating Kalshi prediction market accuracy
- Kalshi markets showed statistically significant improvement over Bloomberg consensus for headline CPI prediction
- Kalshi markets achieved parity with Bloomberg consensus for core CPI and unemployment forecasting
- Kalshi perfectly matched realized fed funds rate on the day before every FOMC meeting since 2022
- Fed paper published same day as CFTC ANPRM (March 16, 2026)
- Good Judgment Project superforecasters reportedly outperformed futures markets for Fed policy predictions by 66% (FT, July 2024)