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Merge pull request 'extract: 2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity' (#1285) from extract/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity into main

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inbox/queue/.extraction-debug/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.json Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
{
"rejected_claims": [
{
"filename": "helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md",
"issues": [
"missing_attribution_extractor"
]
},
{
"filename": "constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md",
"issues": [
"missing_attribution_extractor"
]
}
],
"validation_stats": {
"total": 2,
"kept": 0,
"fixed": 4,
"rejected": 2,
"fixes_applied": [
"helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
"helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md:stripped_wiki_link:falling-launch-costs-paradoxically-both-enable-and-threaten-",
"constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
"constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md:stripped_wiki_link:launch-cost-reduction-is-the-keystone-variable-that-unlocks-"
],
"rejections": [
"helium-3-supply-structure-creates-tritium-breeding-competitive-risk.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
"constrained-supply-market-projections-underestimate-addressable-market-when-new-supply-unlocks-latent-demand.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
]
},
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
"date": "2026-03-18"
}

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inbox/queue/2026-03-18-he3-market-price-supply-scarcity.md
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@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2025-12-01
domain: space-development
secondary_domains: [ai-alignment]
format: analysis
status: unprocessed
status: null-result
priority: medium
tags: [helium-3, market-analysis, supply-scarcity, quantum-computing, pricing, tritium]
processed_by: astra
processed_date: 2026-03-18
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator"
---
## Content
@ -63,3 +67,15 @@ Market data on helium-3 supply, pricing, and demand trajectory:
PRIMARY CONNECTION: water is the strategic keystone resource of the cislunar economy — He-3 supply constraints suggest it may be the keystone early commercial resource even if water is the keystone in-space resource
WHY ARCHIVED: Market data needed to calibrate He-3 extraction economics; the tritium production risk is underanalyzed and worth flagging
EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the structural supply facts (tritium decay = primary source, no scalable alternative) and the competitive risk from tritium breeding programs. Don't just repeat price numbers — the structural analysis is more durable.
## Key Facts
- Global He-3 production: low tens of kilograms per year worldwide (2024)
- Primary He-3 source: tritium decay in aging nuclear weapons stockpiles (US and Russia)
- Current He-3 pricing range: $2,000-$20,000+ per liter (gas phase at standard conditions)
- He-3 price surge: 400%+ over recent years
- He-3 market size 2024: ~$11.36M global
- He-3 market projection 2033: $202.24M (CAGR 37.6%)
- Geological He-3 confirmed at Ramsay Project (Gold Hydrogen, Australia, October 2024)
- Interlune pursuing AFWERX contract for terrestrial He-3 extraction via cryogenic distillation
- He-3 demand drivers: dilution refrigerators (quantum computing below 0.3K), neutron detection, nuclear fusion research, medical imaging (lung MRI), scientific research (NMR, low-temperature physics)