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inbox/archive/general/2026-03-02-noahopinion-superintelligence-already-here.md Normal file
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---
title: "Superintelligence is already here, today"
author: Noah Smith
source: Noahopinion (Substack)
date: 2026-03-02
processed_by: theseus
processed_date: 2026-03-06
type: newsletter
domain: ai-alignment
status: processed
claims_extracted:
- "three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control and current AI satisfies none of them which bounds near-term catastrophic risk despite superhuman cognitive capabilities"
enrichments:
- target: "recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving"
contribution: "jagged intelligence counterargument — SI arrived via combination not recursion (converted from standalone by Leo PR #27)"
---
# Superintelligence is already here, today
Noah Smith's argument that AI is already superintelligent via "jagged intelligence" — superhuman in aggregate but uneven across dimensions.
Key evidence:
- METR capability curve: steady climb across cognitive benchmarks, no plateau
- Erdos problems: ~100 transferred from conjecture to solved
- Terence Tao: describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow
- Ginkgo Bioworks + GPT-5: 150 years of protein engineering compressed to weeks
- "Jagged intelligence": human-level language/reasoning + superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness = superintelligence without recursive self-improvement
Three conditions for AI planetary control (none currently met):
1. Full autonomy (not just task execution)
2. Robotics (physical manipulation at scale)
3. Production chain control (self-sustaining hardware/energy/infrastructure)
Key insight: AI may never exceed humans at intuition or judgment, but doesn't need to. The combination of human-level reasoning with superhuman computation is already transformative.
Source PDF: ~/Desktop/Teleo Codex - Inbox/Noahopinion/Gmail - Superintelligence is already here, today.pdf

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inbox/archive/general/2026-03-06-time-anthropic-drops-rsp.md Normal file
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---
title: "Exclusive: Anthropic Drops Flagship Safety Pledge"
author: TIME staff
source: TIME
date: 2026-03-06
url: https://time.com/7380854/exclusive-anthropic-drops-flagship-safety-pledge/
processed_by: theseus
processed_date: 2026-03-07
type: news article
domain: ai-alignment
status: processed
enrichments:
- target: "voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure because unilateral commitments are structurally punished when competitors advance without equivalent constraints"
contribution: "Conditional RSP structure, Kaplan quotes, $30B/$380B financials, METR frog-boiling warning"
---
# Exclusive: Anthropic Drops Flagship Safety Pledge
TIME exclusive on Anthropic overhauling its Responsible Scaling Policy. Original RSP: never train without advance safety guarantees. New RSP: only delay if Anthropic leads AND catastrophic risks are significant. Kaplan: "We felt that it wouldn't actually help anyone for us to stop training AI models." $30B raise, ~$380B valuation, 10x annual revenue growth. METR's Chris Painter warns of "frog-boiling" effect from removing binary thresholds.