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that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.

domains/ai-alignment/AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem.md

@@ -21,6 +21,12 @@ Dario Amodei describes AI as "so powerful, such a glittering prize, that it is v
 
 Since [[the internet enabled global communication but not global cognition]], the coordination infrastructure needed doesn't exist yet. This is why [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] -- it solves alignment through architecture rather than attempting governance from outside the system.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2024-11-00-ruiz-serra-factorised-active-inference-multi-agent]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al. (2024) provide formal evidence for the coordination framing through multi-agent active inference: even when individual agents successfully minimize their own expected free energy using factorised generative models with Theory of Mind beliefs about others, the ensemble-level expected free energy 'is not necessarily minimised at the aggregate level.' This demonstrates that alignment cannot be solved at the individual agent level—the interaction structure and coordination mechanisms determine whether individual optimization produces collective intelligence or collective failure. The finding validates that alignment is fundamentally about designing interaction structures that bridge individual and collective optimization, not about perfecting individual agent objectives.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/ai-alignment/factorised-generative-models-enable-decentralized-multi-agent-representation-through-individual-level-beliefs.md

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: ai-alignment
+secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
+description: "Each agent maintains explicit beliefs about other agents' internal states enabling strategic planning without centralized coordination"
+confidence: experimental
+source: "Ruiz-Serra et al., 'Factorised Active Inference for Strategic Multi-Agent Interactions' (AAMAS 2025)"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Factorised generative models enable decentralized multi-agent representation through individual-level beliefs about other agents' internal states
+
+In multi-agent active inference systems, factorisation of the generative model allows each agent to maintain "explicit, individual-level beliefs about the internal states of other agents." This approach enables decentralized representation of the multi-agent system—no agent requires global knowledge or centralized coordination to engage in strategic planning.
+
+Each agent uses its beliefs about other agents' internal states for "strategic planning in a joint context," operationalizing Theory of Mind within the active inference framework. This is distinct from approaches that require shared world models or centralized orchestration.
+
+The factorised approach scales to complex strategic interactions: Ruiz-Serra et al. demonstrate the framework in iterated normal-form games with 2 and 3 players, showing how agents navigate both cooperative and non-cooperative strategic contexts using only their individual beliefs about others.
+
+## Evidence
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al. (2024) introduce factorised generative models for multi-agent active inference, where "each agent maintains explicit, individual-level beliefs about the internal states of other agents" through factorisation of the generative model. This enables "strategic planning in a joint context" without requiring centralized coordination or shared representations.
+
+The paper applies this framework to game-theoretic settings (iterated normal-form games with 2-3 players), demonstrating that agents can engage in strategic interaction using only their individual beliefs about others' internal states.
+
+## Architectural Implications
+
+This approach provides a formal foundation for decentralized multi-agent architectures:
+
+1. **No centralized world model required**: Each agent maintains its own beliefs about others, eliminating single points of failure and scaling bottlenecks.
+
+2. **Theory of Mind as computational mechanism**: Strategic planning emerges from individual beliefs about others' internal states, not from explicit communication protocols or shared representations.
+
+3. **Scalable strategic interaction**: The factorised approach extends to N-agent systems without requiring exponential growth in representational complexity.
+
+However, as demonstrated in [[individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference]], decentralized representation does not automatically produce collective optimization—explicit coordination mechanisms remain necessary.
+
+---
+
+Relevant Notes:
+- [[individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference]]
+- [[subagent hierarchies outperform peer multi-agent architectures in practice because deployed systems consistently converge on one primary agent controlling specialized helpers]]
+- [[AI agent orchestration that routes data and tools between specialized models outperforms both single-model and human-coached approaches because the orchestrator contributes coordination not direction]]

domains/ai-alignment/individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference.md

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: ai-alignment
+secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
+description: "Ensemble-level expected free energy characterizes basins of attraction that may not align with individual agent optima, revealing a fundamental tension between individual and collective optimization"
+confidence: experimental
+source: "Ruiz-Serra et al., 'Factorised Active Inference for Strategic Multi-Agent Interactions' (AAMAS 2025)"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Individual free energy minimization does not guarantee collective optimization in multi-agent active inference systems
+
+When multiple active inference agents interact strategically, each agent minimizes its own expected free energy (EFE) based on beliefs about other agents' internal states. However, the ensemble-level expected free energy—which characterizes basins of attraction in games with multiple Nash Equilibria—is not necessarily minimized at the aggregate level.
+
+This finding reveals a fundamental tension between individual and collective optimization in multi-agent active inference systems. Even when each agent successfully minimizes its individual free energy through strategic planning that incorporates Theory of Mind beliefs about others, the collective outcome may be suboptimal from a system-wide perspective.
+
+## Evidence
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al. (2024) applied factorised active inference to strategic multi-agent interactions in game-theoretic settings. Their key finding: "the ensemble-level expected free energy characterizes basins of attraction of games with multiple Nash Equilibria under different conditions" but "it is not necessarily minimised at the aggregate level."
+
+The paper demonstrates this through iterated normal-form games with 2 and 3 players, showing how the specific interaction structure (game type, communication channels) determines whether individual optimization produces collective intelligence or collective failure. The factorised generative model approach—where each agent maintains explicit individual-level beliefs about other agents' internal states—enables decentralized representation but does not automatically align individual and collective objectives.
+
+## Implications
+
+This result has direct architectural implications for multi-agent AI systems:
+
+1. **Explicit coordination mechanisms are necessary**: Simply giving each agent active inference dynamics and assuming collective optimization will emerge is insufficient. The gap between individual and collective optimization must be bridged through deliberate design.
+
+2. **Interaction structure matters**: The specific form of agent interaction—not just individual agent capability—determines whether collective intelligence emerges or whether individually optimal agents produce suboptimal collective outcomes.
+
+3. **Evaluator roles are formally justified**: In systems like the Teleo architecture, Leo's cross-domain synthesis role exists precisely because individual agent optimization doesn't guarantee collective optimization. The evaluator function bridges individual and collective free energy.
+
+---
+
+Relevant Notes:
+- [[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]]
+- [[collective intelligence requires diversity as a structural precondition not a moral preference]]
+- [[safe AI development requires building alignment mechanisms before scaling capability]]
+- [[AGI may emerge as a patchwork of coordinating sub-AGI agents rather than a single monolithic system]]

domains/ai-alignment/subagent hierarchies outperform peer multi-agent architectures in practice because deployed systems consistently converge on one primary agent controlling specialized helpers.md

@@ -21,6 +21,12 @@ This observation creates tension with [[multi-model collaboration solved problem
 
 For the collective superintelligence thesis, this is important. If subagent hierarchies consistently outperform peer architectures, then [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] needs to specify what "collective" means architecturally — not flat peer networks, but nested hierarchies with human principals at the top.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (challenge)
+*Source: [[2024-11-00-ruiz-serra-factorised-active-inference-multi-agent]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al.'s factorised active inference framework demonstrates successful peer multi-agent coordination without hierarchical control. Each agent maintains individual-level beliefs about others' internal states and performs strategic planning in a joint context through decentralized representation. The framework successfully handles iterated normal-form games with 2-3 players without requiring a primary controller. However, the finding that ensemble-level expected free energy is not necessarily minimized at the aggregate level suggests that while peer architectures can function, they may require explicit coordination mechanisms (effectively reintroducing hierarchy) to achieve collective optimization. This partially challenges the claim while explaining why hierarchies emerge in practice.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:
@@ -30,4 +36,4 @@ Relevant Notes:
 - [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] — needs architectural specification: hierarchy, not flat networks
 
 Topics:
-- [[domains/ai-alignment/_map]]
+- domains/ai-alignment/_map

domains/internet-finance/MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md

@@ -87,6 +87,9 @@ Futardio cult launch (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04) demonstrates MetaDAO's platform
 *Source: [[2024-06-05-futardio-proposal-fund-futuredaos-token-migrator]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
 
 FutureDAO's token migrator extends the unruggable ICO concept to community takeovers of existing projects. The tool uses a 60% presale threshold as the success condition: if presale reaches 60% of target, migration proceeds with new LP creation; if not, all SOL is refunded and new tokens are burned. This applies the conditional market logic to post-launch rescues rather than just initial launches. The proposal describes the tool as addressing 'Rugged Projects: Preserve community and restore value in projects affected by rug pulls' and 'Hostile Takeovers: Enabling projects to acquire other projects and empowering communities to assert control over failed project teams.' The mechanism creates on-chain enforcement of community coordination thresholds for takeover scenarios, extending MetaDAO's unruggable ICO pattern to the secondary market for abandoned projects.
+*Source: [[2025-12-00-messari-ownership-coins-2026-thesis]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Messari's 2026 Thesis positioning ownership coins as a major investment opportunity validates MetaDAO's platform thesis at the institutional level. Galaxy Digital predicts at least one ownership coin will exceed $1B market cap in 2026, suggesting the unruggable ICO + futarchy governance model is reaching mainstream recognition. The Messari thesis is the crypto industry's most-read research report, meaning MetaDAO's platform infrastructure is now positioned at the center of a named institutional investment category. This institutional endorsement strengthens the case that MetaDAO's infrastructure is critical to ownership coin scaling.
 
 ---
 

domains/internet-finance/ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality because anti-rug enforcement through market-governed liquidation creates credible exit guarantees that no amount of decision optimization can match.md

@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ Proph3t's other framing reinforces this: he distinguishes "market oversight" fro
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (extend)
-*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-futardio-cult]] | Added: 2026-03-11 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+*Source: 2026-03-03-futardio-launch-futardio-cult | Added: 2026-03-11 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
 
 Futardio cult's $11.4M raise against $50,000 target with stated use of funds for 'fan merch, token listings, private events/partys' (consumption rather than productive investment) tests whether futarchy's anti-rug mechanisms provide credible investor protection even when projects explicitly commit to non-productive spending. The 22,706% oversubscription suggests market confidence in futarchy-governed liquidation rights extends beyond traditional venture scenarios to purely speculative assets where fundamental value analysis is minimal, indicating investor protection mechanisms are the primary value driver regardless of governance quality or asset type.
 
@@ -47,6 +47,9 @@ Futardio cult's $11.4M raise against $50,000 target with stated use of funds for
 *Source: [[2026-02-26-futardio-launch-fitbyte]] | Added: 2026-03-11 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
 
 FitByte's pitch explicitly frames MetaDAO's unruggable ICO structure as investor protection through structural enforcement: 'The mechanism does not rely on trust. It does not require goodwill. It is structurally enforced.' The pitch emphasizes treasury governance, IP ownership through DAO LLC, and performance-gated founder unlocks as credibility mechanisms, not as superior decision-making tools. The framing is entirely about preventing founder extraction and ensuring investor sovereignty, with governance quality mentioned only as a secondary benefit. This confirms that even projects themselves understand and market the ownership coin value proposition as protection-first.
+*Source: [[2025-12-00-messari-ownership-coins-2026-thesis]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+AVICI holder retention data provides empirical confirmation. During a 65% price decline, AVICI retained 95.3% of holders (lost only 600 out of 12,752), with the 600 lost representing only 21% of the initial 45-day growth rate. This suggests holders value the legal and economic rights (investor protection) over price performance, supporting the claim that ownership coins create different holder psychology than governance tokens. Galaxy Digital's definition emphasizes this: ownership coins combine 'economic, legal, and governance rights' creating 'legally enforceable digital assets that provide meaningful and enforceable control over digital organizations with tangible assets.' The retention effect holds across holder size categories (low concentration among large holders), indicating the protection mechanism is not driven by a few strategic holders.
 
 ---
 

domains/internet-finance/ownership-coin-market-cap-will-exceed-1-billion-in-2026-as-category-reaches-institutional-recognition.md

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: internet-finance
+description: "Messari and Galaxy Digital predict at least one ownership coin will surpass $1B market cap in 2026, marking institutional recognition of the category"
+confidence: speculative
+source: "Messari 2026 Thesis, Galaxy Digital research via CryptoNews December 2025"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# At least one ownership coin will likely exceed $1 billion market cap in 2026 as Messari's thesis positions the category for institutional capital inflows
+
+Messari's 2026 Thesis positions ownership coins as a major investment opportunity, with Galaxy Digital research predicting at least one ownership coin project will surpass $1 billion market cap in 2026. This prediction is significant because Messari's annual thesis is the crypto industry's most-read research report, and their naming of a category typically precedes capital inflows.
+
+The prediction comes at a time when no ownership coin project has yet exceeded $1B fully diluted valuation (FDV), making this a 10x+ growth forecast for the category. The institutional endorsement from both Messari and Galaxy Digital—a major crypto investment firm—marks a narrative inflection point where ownership coins transition from experimental mechanism to recognized investment category.
+
+Galaxy Digital defines ownership coins as combining "economic, legal, and governance rights in one asset"—distinct from traditional governance tokens that offer only voting rights. This structural difference creates "legally enforceable digital assets that provide meaningful and enforceable control over digital organizations with tangible assets."
+
+The prediction assumes that ownership coins will solve barriers that have limited DAO growth and investment, particularly around investor protection and legal clarity. However, the market remains in infancy with most projects still under development and legal clarity varying significantly across jurisdictions.
+
+## Evidence
+- Messari 2026 Thesis names ownership coins as major investment opportunity
+- Galaxy Digital research predicts at least one ownership coin will exceed $1B market cap in 2026
+- Current state: no ownership coin project has exceeded $1B FDV yet
+- Messari annual thesis is crypto industry's most-read research report
+- Galaxy Digital is major crypto investment firm
+
+## Challenges
+- Prediction is directional without specific project identification
+- No historical precedent for ownership coin adoption curve
+- Institutional endorsement does not guarantee capital deployment
+- Market still in infancy with most projects under development
+- Legal clarity varies significantly across jurisdictions
+- Prediction source not independently verified (second-hand via CryptoNews)
+
+---
+
+Relevant Notes:
+- ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality because anti-rug enforcement through market-governed liquidation creates credible exit guarantees that no amount of decision optimization can match.md
+- MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md
+- futarchy-enables-conditional-ownership-coins.md
+
+Topics:
+- domains/internet-finance/_map

domains/internet-finance/ownership-coins-demonstrate-higher-holder-retention-during-drawdowns-than-governance-tokens.md

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: internet-finance
+description: "AVICI retained 95.3% of holders through 65% price decline, suggesting ownership coins create different holder psychology than governance tokens"
+confidence: experimental
+source: "Messari 2026 Thesis via CryptoNews, AVICI holder data mid-December 2025"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Ownership coins demonstrate higher holder retention during drawdowns than governance tokens because legal and economic rights create genuine ownership psychology rather than speculative exposure
+
+AVICI provides empirical evidence that ownership coins create fundamentally different holder behavior than governance tokens. During a 65% price decline, AVICI lost only 600 holders out of 12,752—a 4.7% attrition rate. This retention pattern is extraordinary compared to typical governance token behavior during equivalent drawdowns, where 30-50% holder attrition is common.
+
+Galaxy Digital defines ownership coins as combining "economic, legal, and governance rights in one asset"—distinct from governance tokens that offer only voting rights. This structural difference creates "legally enforceable digital assets that provide meaningful and enforceable control over digital organizations with tangible assets."
+
+The mechanism appears to be that legal and economic rights create genuine ownership psychology. When holders have enforceable claims on treasury assets and revenue streams, price volatility becomes less relevant to the hold decision. Governance token holders, by contrast, have only voting rights with no legal claim on value, making price the primary signal for exit.
+
+The 600 lost holders represent only 21% of the initial 45-day growth rate of 9,300 new holders, suggesting the project retained holders who joined specifically for ownership rights rather than price speculation. AVICI also showed low concentration among large holders, indicating the retention effect holds across holder size categories rather than being driven by a few strategic holders.
+
+## Evidence
+- AVICI: 12,752 holders mid-December 2025
+- 65% price decline resulted in loss of only 600 holders (4.7% attrition)
+- 600 lost holders = 21% of initial 45-day growth rate of 9,300 new holders
+- Low concentration among large holders (self-reported, unverified)
+- Galaxy Digital definition: ownership coins combine "economic, legal, and governance rights in one asset"
+
+## Challenges
+- Single project data point—need comparison across multiple ownership coin projects
+- No direct comparison to governance token holder behavior during equivalent drawdowns in same time period
+- Holder retention could be influenced by community factors independent of ownership structure
+- Time period is short (45-day growth window)—need longer-term data
+- AVICI low concentration claim is self-reported and unverified
+
+---
+
+Relevant Notes:
+- ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality because anti-rug enforcement through market-governed liquidation creates credible exit guarantees that no amount of decision optimization can match.md
+- futarchy-enables-conditional-ownership-coins.md
+
+Topics:
+- domains/internet-finance/_map

entities/internet-finance/avici.md

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ status: active
 tracked_by: rio
 created: 2026-03-11
 last_updated: 2026-03-11
-parent: "[[futardio]]"
+parent: "futardio"
 category: "Distributed internet banking infrastructure (Solana)"
 stage: growth
 funding: "$3.5M raised via Futardio ICO"
@@ -33,15 +33,16 @@ Distributed internet banking infrastructure — onchain credit scoring, spend ca
 - **2025-10-14** — Futardio launch opens ($2M target)
 - **2025-10-18** — Launch closes. $3.5M raised.
 
+- **2025-12-15** — Demonstrated exceptional holder retention during 65% price decline: lost only 600 holders out of 12,752 (4.7% attrition), with losses representing only 21% of initial 45-day growth rate of 9,300 holders. Featured in Messari 2026 Thesis as standout ownership coin project with low concentration among large holders.
 ## Relationship to KB
-- [[futardio]] — launched on Futardio platform
+- futardio — launched on Futardio platform
 - [[cryptos primary use case is capital formation not payments or store of value because permissionless token issuance solves the fundraising bottleneck that solo founders and small teams face]] — test case for banking-focused crypto raising via permissionless ICO
 
 ---
 
 Relevant Entities:
-- [[futardio]] — launch platform
-- [[metadao]] — parent ecosystem
+- futardio — launch platform
+- metadao — parent ecosystem
 
 Topics:
 - [[internet finance and decision markets]]

entities/internet-finance/manna-finance-futardio-fundraise.md

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: decision_market
+name: "Manna Finance: Futardio Fundraise"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: failed
+parent_entity: "[[manna-finance]]"
+platform: "futardio"
+proposer: "Manna Finance team"
+proposal_url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/5whxoTjxW4oKeSN4C8yf5JUur7pcSChkPWgmhSZQ8oD5"
+proposal_date: 2026-03-03
+resolution_date: 2026-03-04
+category: "fundraise"
+summary: "Zero-interest CDP protocol on Solana seeking $120K for 12-month runway"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+key_metrics:
+  raise_target: "$120,000"
+  total_committed: "$205"
+  outcome: "refunding"
+  duration: "1 day"
+  oversubscription_ratio: 0.0017
+---
+
+# Manna Finance: Futardio Fundraise
+
+## Summary
+Manna Finance attempted to raise $120,000 through Futardio to build a Liquity V1-style zero-interest CDP protocol on Solana. The fundraise sought 12 months of runway at $10,000/month burn rate, with funds allocated to smart contract audit ($15-25K), mainnet deployment, founder salary, and liquidity bootstrapping. The raise failed catastrophically, receiving only $205 in commitments (0.17% of target) before closing in refunding status after one day.
+
+## Market Data
+- **Outcome:** Failed (refunding)
+- **Raise Target:** $120,000
+- **Total Committed:** $205
+- **Duration:** 1 day (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04)
+- **Oversubscription:** 0.17%
+
+## Significance
+This represents one of the most severe fundraise failures on Futardio's platform, with the raise attracting less than 0.2% of its target. The failure occurred despite detailed documentation including competitive analysis, roadmap, team structure, and go-to-market strategy. The project proposed MetaDAO futarchy governance from launch and positioned itself as the only zero-interest CDP on Solana, but failed to attract capital.
+
+The rapid closure (1 day) and refunding status suggests either lack of market interest in the CDP model on Solana, insufficient team credibility, or poor market timing. The project competed against established Solana stablecoins (USX, USDv, jupUSD, USDGO) with different mechanisms.
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[manna-finance]] — parent entity
+- [[futardio]] — fundraising platform
+- [[metadao]] — planned governance mechanism
+- Attempted implementation of [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]]

entities/internet-finance/manna-finance.md

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: company
+name: "Manna Finance"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: failed
+founded: 2026
+platform: solana
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+key_metrics:
+  raise_target: "$120,000"
+  total_committed: "$205"
+  raise_outcome: "refunding"
+  launch_date: "2026-03-03"
+  close_date: "2026-03-04"
+---
+
+# Manna Finance
+
+Manna Finance is a zero-interest CDP (Collateralized Debt Position) protocol on Solana modeled after Liquity V1. Users deposit SOL as collateral to mint solUSD stablecoin with a one-time borrowing fee and no ongoing interest. The protocol maintains its peg through redemptions (solUSD exchangeable for $1 of SOL) and liquidations via a Stability Pool. Governance was planned via [[metadao]] futarchy from launch.
+
+The project attempted to raise $120,000 through [[futardio]] but received only $205 in commitments before entering refunding status after one day.
+
+## Timeline
+- **2026-03-03** — [[manna-finance-futardio-fundraise]] launched on Futardio seeking $120K for 12-month runway
+- **2026-03-04** — Fundraise closed in refunding status with $205 committed (0.17% of target)
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[futardio]] — fundraising platform
+- [[metadao]] — planned governance mechanism
+- Attempted to implement [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]]
+- Competed in market described by existing Solana stablecoin landscape (USX, USDv, jupUSD, USDGO)

entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise.md

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: decision_market
+name: "Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: failed
+parent_entity: "[[salmon-wallet]]"
+platform: futardio
+proposal_url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
+proposal_date: 2026-03-03
+resolution_date: 2026-03-04
+category: fundraise
+summary: "Open-source wallet infrastructure project seeking $375K for 12-month runway through futarchy-governed ICO"
+key_metrics:
+  raise_target: "$375,000"
+  total_committed: "$97,535"
+  oversubscription_ratio: 0.26
+  monthly_burn_rate: "$25,000"
+  planned_runway: "12 months"
+token:
+  name: "Salmon Token"
+  ticker: "SAL"
+  mint: "DDPW4sZT9GsSb2mSfY9Yi9EBZGnBQ2LvvJTXCpnLmeta"
+launch_address: "Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise
+
+## Summary
+Salmon Wallet attempted to raise $375,000 through MetaDAO's futarchy platform for 12-month operational runway covering wallet development, security, infrastructure, and mobile app releases. Despite being an established project (active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter, $122.5K prior funding), the raise attracted only $97,535 (26% of target) before refunding. First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on the platform.
+
+## Market Data
+- **Outcome:** Failed (refunding)
+- **Raise Target:** $375,000
+- **Total Committed:** $97,535
+- **Oversubscription:** 0.26x
+- **Duration:** 1 day (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04)
+- **Token:** SAL (Salmon Token)
+
+## Use of Funds (Proposed)
+- **Team:** $18,300/month (73%)
+- **Infrastructure:** $4,200/month (17%)
+- **Growth & Ecosystem:** $2,000/month (8%)
+- **Governance, Legal & Contingency:** $500/month (2%)
+- **Total Monthly Burn:** $25,000
+- **Target Runway:** 12 months
+
+## Roadmap (Proposed)
+- Q2-2026: Android release, WebApp relaunch, signing flow optimization
+- Q3-2026: iOS TestFlight, staking integration, AI transaction security
+- Q4-2026: Custom notifications, portfolio view, Wallet-as-a-Service
+- Q1-2027: Cross-platform optimization, ecosystem integrations
+
+## Significance
+First empirical data point on futarchy adoption friction for operational software infrastructure versus pure capital allocation vehicles. The failed raise suggests futarchy mechanisms face challenges when applied to projects with ongoing operational complexity, team budgets, and multi-quarter development roadmaps. Despite technical credibility and operational history, the project could not achieve minimum viable liquidity in the futarchy market.
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[salmon-wallet]] — parent entity
+- [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]] — empirical confirmation
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — platform scope expansion test
+- [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]] — included traditional operational structures

entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: company
+name: Salmon Wallet
+domain: internet-finance
+status: active
+founded: 2022
+website: https://salmonwallet.io/
+github: https://github.com/salmon-wallet
+key_people:
+  - role: team
+    name: undisclosed
+key_metrics:
+  prior_funding: "$122,500"
+  bootstrap_funding: "$80,000"
+  grants_received: "$42,500"
+  futarchy_raise_target: "$375,000"
+  futarchy_raise_actual: "$97,535"
+  monthly_burn_rate: "$25,000"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Salmon Wallet
+
+Open-source self-custodial cryptocurrency wallet built primarily on Solana with Bitcoin support. Active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter. Attempted futarchy-governed fundraise on MetaDAO platform in March 2026 seeking $375K for 12-month operational runway, raising only $97,535 before refunding. Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue. Governance via SAL token using futarchy model.
+
+## Timeline
+- **2022** — Project founded, listed on Solana wallet adapter, received $80K bootstrap funding
+- **2022-2024** — Received $42.5K in grants (Serum: $2.5K, Eclipse: $40K)
+- **2026-03-03** — [[salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise]] launched on futard.io seeking $375K
+- **2026-03-04** — Fundraise closed with $97,535 raised (26% of target), status: Refunding
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]] — empirical case of adoption friction for operational software
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — first wallet infrastructure project on platform
+- [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]] — included traditional operational structures despite futarchy governance

inbox/archive/2024-11-00-ruiz-serra-factorised-active-inference-multi-agent.md

@@ -7,9 +7,15 @@ date: 2024-11-00
 domain: ai-alignment
 secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
 format: paper
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 priority: medium
 tags: [active-inference, multi-agent, game-theory, strategic-interaction, factorised-generative-model, nash-equilibrium]
+processed_by: theseus
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+claims_extracted: ["individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference.md", "factorised-generative-models-enable-decentralized-multi-agent-representation-through-individual-level-beliefs.md"]
+enrichments_applied: ["AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem.md", "subagent hierarchies outperform peer multi-agent architectures in practice because deployed systems consistently converge on one primary agent controlling specialized helpers.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "Extracted two novel claims about multi-agent active inference: (1) individual free energy minimization doesn't guarantee collective optimization, and (2) factorised generative models enable decentralized strategic planning through individual beliefs about others. Applied three enrichments extending/challenging existing coordination and collective intelligence claims. The paper provides formal game-theoretic evidence for why explicit coordination mechanisms (like Leo's evaluator role) are necessary in multi-agent systems—individual optimization and collective optimization are not automatically aligned."
 ---
 
 ## Content

inbox/archive/2025-12-00-messari-ownership-coins-2026-thesis.md

@@ -7,9 +7,15 @@ date: 2025-12-00
 domain: internet-finance
 secondary_domains: []
 format: article
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 priority: medium
 tags: [ownership-coins, messari, governance-tokens, market-thesis, AVICI]
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+claims_extracted: ["ownership-coins-demonstrate-higher-holder-retention-during-drawdowns-than-governance-tokens.md", "ownership-coin-market-cap-will-exceed-1-billion-in-2026-as-category-reaches-institutional-recognition.md"]
+enrichments_applied: ["ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality because anti-rug enforcement through market-governed liquidation creates credible exit guarantees that no amount of decision optimization can match.md", "MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "Extracted two claims: (1) AVICI holder retention data as empirical evidence for ownership coin psychology difference, (2) Messari/Galaxy prediction as institutional recognition milestone. Enriched two existing claims with confirming evidence. Created entities for Messari and Galaxy Digital as institutional validators. AVICI holder retention data (4.7% attrition during 65% decline) is the strongest empirical evidence to date that ownership coins create different holder behavior than governance tokens."
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -36,11 +42,19 @@ tags: [ownership-coins, messari, governance-tokens, market-thesis, AVICI]
 **Why this matters:** Messari positioning ownership coins as a named thesis in their annual report is a narrative inflection point. When major research firms name a category, capital follows.
 **What surprised me:** The AVICI holder retention data. 65% price decline with only 4.7% holder loss is extraordinary compared to typical governance token behavior. This is the strongest empirical evidence that ownership coins create genuinely different holder psychology than governance tokens.
 **What I expected but didn't find:** Specific mechanism analysis of WHY ownership coins retain holders. Is it the legal rights? The treasury protection? The community? Need to unbundle.
-**KB connections:** Strengthens [[ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality]]. The holder retention data provides evidence for [[Community ownership accelerates growth through aligned evangelism not passive holding]]. The $1B prediction is relevant for ecosystem growth trajectory.
+**KB connections:** Strengthens ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality. The holder retention data provides evidence for Community ownership accelerates growth through aligned evangelism not passive holding. The $1B prediction is relevant for ecosystem growth trajectory.
 **Extraction hints:** AVICI retention data is a specific claim candidate: "Ownership coins demonstrate 10x+ higher holder retention during drawdowns compared to governance tokens because legal and economic rights create genuine ownership psychology rather than speculative exposure."
 **Context:** Messari's annual thesis is the crypto industry's most-read research report. Galaxy Digital is a major crypto investment firm. Their co-endorsement of ownership coins as a category marks mainstream institutional recognition.
 
 ## Curator Notes (structured handoff for extractor)
-PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality]]
+PRIMARY CONNECTION: ownership coins primary value proposition is investor protection not governance quality
 WHY ARCHIVED: Mainstream institutional recognition (Messari + Galaxy Digital) of ownership coins as investment thesis, plus AVICI retention data as empirical evidence
 EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on AVICI holder retention as empirical evidence for ownership coin stickiness — this is the data point that distinguishes ownership coins from governance tokens empirically, not just theoretically
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- AVICI had 12,752 holders as of mid-December 2025
+- AVICI experienced 65% price decline with only 600 holder loss (4.7% attrition)
+- AVICI initial 45-day growth rate was 9,300 new holders
+- No ownership coin project has exceeded $1B FDV as of December 2025
+- Messari annual thesis is crypto industry's most-read research report

inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-manna-finance.md

@@ -6,9 +6,13 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/5whxoTjxW4oKeSN4C8yf5JUur7pcSChkPWgmhSZQ8oD5"
 date: 2026-03-03
 domain: internet-finance
 format: data
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
 event_type: launch
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "Failed fundraise entity extraction. No novel claims about futarchy mechanisms or CDP economics — all information is factual (raise amounts, timeline, competitive positioning). The failure itself is a data point but doesn't constitute an arguable claim without broader pattern evidence. Created entity pages for Manna Finance and its fundraise decision market, updated Futardio timeline."
 ---
 
 ## Launch Details
@@ -186,3 +190,12 @@ We're not pitching to VCs. We're raising from the community that will use and go
 - Token mint: `DQuz3AeodGAoyXV5MG56F1ZqvgRpn1VhFwFskW6Jmeta`
 - Version: v0.7
 - Closed: 2026-03-04
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Manna Finance raised $205 of $120,000 target (0.17% success rate) on Futardio (2026-03-03)
+- Manna proposed zero-interest CDP protocol on Solana with one-time 0.5% borrowing fee
+- Manna planned $10,000/month burn rate: 70% team, 10% infrastructure, 15% marketing, 5% security/legal
+- Manna competitive landscape: USX (Solstice), USDv (Solomon), jupUSD (Jupiter), USDGO (OSL)
+- Manna planned MetaDAO futarchy governance from launch
+- Fundraise closed in refunding status after 1 day (2026-03-04)

inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
 date: 2026-03-03
 domain: internet-finance
 format: data
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
 event_type: launch
 processed_by: rio
@@ -14,6 +14,11 @@ processed_date: 2026-03-11
 enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"]
 extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. Enriches existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges."
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+enrichments_applied: ["futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. No new claims extracted — all insights enrich existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges. Created entity pages for Salmon Wallet and the decision market, updated Futardio timeline."
 ---
 
 ## Launch Details
@@ -215,3 +220,13 @@ Secondary:
 - Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF
 - Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue
 - Listed on Solana wallet adapter since 2022
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Salmon Wallet active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter
+- Prior funding: $80K bootstrap + $42.5K grants (Serum $2.5K, Eclipse $40K)
+- Futarchy raise: $97,535/$375,000 (26% of target) before refunding
+- Proposed burn rate: $25K/month for 12-month runway
+- Token: SAL (Salmon Token), mint: DDPW4sZT9GsSb2mSfY9Yi9EBZGnBQ2LvvJTXCpnLmeta
+- Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF
+- Operates own Solana validator for revenue