rio: extract from 2026-03-05-futardio-launch-runbookai.md

- Source: inbox/archive/2026-03-05-futardio-launch-runbookai.md
- Domain: internet-finance
- Extracted by: headless extraction cron (worker 5)

Pentagon-Agent: Rio <HEADLESS>

entities/internet-finance/futardio.md

@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ MetaDAO's token launch platform. Implements "unruggable ICOs" — permissionless
 
 - **2026-03-07** — Areal DAO launch: $50K target, raised $11,654 (23.3%), REFUNDING status by 2026-03-08 — first documented failed futarchy-governed fundraise on platform
 - **2026-03-04** — [[seekervault]] fundraise launched targeting $75,000, closed next day with only $1,186 (1.6% of target) in refunding status
-- **2026-03-05** — [[runbookai-futardio-fundraise]] launched seeking $350K for DeFi agent marketplace, failed with only $3,600 committed (1.03% of target)
+- **2026-03-05** — [[runbookai-futardio-fundraise]] failed: RunBookAI DeFi agent marketplace raised $3,600 of $350K target (1%) before entering refund status after one day
 ## Competitive Position
 - **Unique mechanism**: Only launch platform with futarchy-governed accountability and treasury return guarantees
 - **vs pump.fun**: pump.fun is memecoin launch (zero accountability, pure speculation). Futardio is ownership coin launch (futarchy governance, treasury enforcement). Different categories despite both being "launch platforms."

entities/internet-finance/runbookai-futardio-fundraise.md

@@ -5,42 +5,44 @@ name: "RunBookAI: Futardio Fundraise"
 domain: internet-finance
 status: failed
 parent_entity: "[[runbookai]]"
-platform: futardio
+platform: "futardio"
 proposal_url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/9DfNVpcDm6x1GXUa8wik8YVZhiw7dTmmhefVBWVZuAg8"
 proposal_date: 2026-03-05
 resolution_date: 2026-03-06
-category: fundraise
-summary: "Futarchy-governed fundraise for DeFi agent strategy marketplace seeking $350K"
+category: "fundraise"
+summary: "DeFi agent strategy marketplace targeting $350K through futarchy-governed launch"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
 key_metrics:
   funding_target: "$350,000"
   total_committed: "$3,600"
-  success_rate: "1.03%"
   outcome: "refunding"
-tracked_by: rio
-created: 2026-03-11
+  launch_address: "9DfNVpcDm6x1GXUa8wik8YVZhiw7dTmmhefVBWVZuAg8"
+  token: "pMF"
+  token_mint: "pMFWrTS9E6btgjLyxNc3AGi74QqvG88GV2vVrLJmeta"
+  version: "v0.7"
 ---
 
 # RunBookAI: Futardio Fundraise
 
 ## Summary
-RunBookAI attempted to raise $350,000 through Futardio's futarchy-governed launch platform to build a two-sided marketplace where DeFi strategy creators could train agents, prove their performance on-chain, and rent immutable strategies to other users through TEE-secured execution. The fundraise failed dramatically, attracting only $3,600 in commitments (1.03% of target) before entering refunding status.
+RunBookAI launched a futarchy-governed fundraise on Futardio targeting $350,000 to build a two-sided marketplace where DeFi strategy creators train agents with natural language, prove performance in staging environments with immutable on-chain track records, and rent locked strategies to users who execute them on their own capital inside TEE containers with performance-based revenue splits. The launch raised only $3,600 (1% of target) before entering refund status after one day.
 
 ## Market Data
 - **Outcome:** Failed (Refunding)
-- **Launch Date:** 2026-03-05
-- **Close Date:** 2026-03-06
 - **Funding Target:** $350,000
 - **Total Committed:** $3,600
-- **Success Rate:** 1.03%
-- **Token:** pMF
-- **Token Mint:** pMFWrTS9E6btgjLyxNc3AGi74QqvG88GV2vVrLJmeta
+- **Launch Date:** 2026-03-05
+- **Close Date:** 2026-03-06
+- **Platform:** Futardio v0.7
 
 ## Significance
-This represents one of the most severe fundraise failures on the Futardio platform, reaching barely 1% of target. The failure suggests either fundamental market skepticism about the DeFi agent strategy marketplace concept, lack of team credibility, poor timing relative to market conditions, or insufficient pre-launch validation. The rapid closure (one day) indicates the platform's mechanisms correctly identified lack of market interest early.
+This represents a 99% capital shortfall on a DeFi infrastructure project with clear product roadmap (Q2 2026 creator backoffice, Q3 2026 on-chain verification, Q4 2026 marketplace launch, Q1 2027+ scale). The failure occurred despite addressing a documented problem (no way to package DeFi expertise into portable rentable skills) with a defined revenue model (setup fees, performance splits, platform fees) and technical architecture (TEE execution, immutable strategy locks, Solana on-chain identity).
 
-The proposal's roadmap extended through Q1 2027 with phases for creator onboarding, on-chain backtesting, marketplace launch, and scaling to institutional tier, but the market signaled no confidence in the team's ability to execute.
+The rapid failure (one day from launch to refund) suggests either market skepticism of the team/execution risk, saturation of DeFi agent tooling projects, or insufficient pre-launch community building. This adds to the emerging pattern of futarchy-governed launches showing high variance in outcomes.
 
 ## Relationship to KB
 - [[runbookai]] — parent entity
 - [[futardio]] — launch platform
-- [[MetaDAO]] — futarchy governance infrastructure
+- [[MetaDAO]] — futarchy infrastructure
+- [[futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-because-mechanism-selects-both-top-performers-and-worst-performers-simultaneously]] — this failure exemplifies the variance pattern

entities/internet-finance/runbookai.md

@@ -4,23 +4,24 @@ entity_type: company
 name: RunBookAI
 domain: internet-finance
 status: failed
-founded: 2026
-platform: solana
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
 key_metrics:
   funding_target: "$350,000"
   total_committed: "$3,600"
+  launch_date: "2026-03-05"
+  close_date: "2026-03-06"
   outcome: "refunding"
-tracked_by: rio
-created: 2026-03-11
 ---
 
 # RunBookAI
 
-RunBookAI was a proposed marketplace for trained DeFi agent strategies on Solana where creators could train agents using natural language, build verifiable on-chain track records in staging environments, and rent immutable strategies to other users through TEE-secured execution. The platform aimed to solve the problem of packaging DeFi expertise into portable, rentable skills that any agent could run, with revenue from agent setup fees, performance splits on profits, and platform fees.
+A marketplace for trained DeFi agent strategies on Solana where creators train agents using natural language, build verifiable on-chain track records in staging environments, and rent immutable strategies to users who run them on their own capital inside TEE containers with performance-based revenue splits.
 
 ## Timeline
-- **2026-03-05** — [[runbookai-futardio-fundraise]] launched on Futardio seeking $350K, reached only $3,600 in commitments before entering refunding status
-- **2026-03-06** — Fundraise closed in refunding status after failing to meet minimum threshold
+- **2026-03-05** — [[runbookai-futardio-fundraise]] failed: Futardio launch targeting $350K raised only $3,600 before entering refund status
 
 ## Relationship to KB
-RunBookAI represents an attempt to create a two-sided marketplace for DeFi agent strategies, combining elements of [[MetaDAO]]'s futarchy-based fundraising with agent-based automation. The failure to reach even 2% of funding target suggests either timing issues, insufficient market validation, or lack of credibility in the team/approach.
+- [[futardio]] — launch platform
+- [[MetaDAO]] — futarchy infrastructure provider
+- Represents DeFi agent strategy marketplace model with TEE execution and immutable strategy locks

inbox/archive/2026-03-05-futardio-launch-runbookai.md

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ event_type: launch
 processed_by: rio
 processed_date: 2026-03-11
 extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
-extraction_notes: "This is a failed fundraise with trivial capital raised. Created entity pages because: (1) it's a Futardio launch with structured data, (2) the failure magnitude (1% of target) is itself informative about market validation mechanisms, (3) it provides a data point for futarchy-governed fundraise outcomes. No claims extracted because the source is purely descriptive pitch material with no novel mechanism insights or evidence about broader patterns. The failure itself is factual (status: refunding) not arguable."
+extraction_notes: "Factual launch data only. No novel claims extracted — this is a standard failed futarchy launch adding one data point to existing variance pattern. Created entity pages for RunBookAI company and its fundraise decision market, plus timeline entry on Futardio parent entity. The 99% shortfall and one-day failure timeline are significant as data points but don't generate new arguable propositions beyond what futarchy-variance claim already covers."
 ---
 
 ## Launch Details
@@ -114,11 +114,8 @@ Remote On-device agents,  creator SDK, institutional tier.
 
 
 ## Key Facts
-- RunBookAI fundraise launched 2026-03-05 on Futardio
-- Funding target: $350,000
-- Total committed: $3,600 (1.03% of target)
-- Status: Refunding
-- Closed: 2026-03-06
-- Token: pMF
-- Proposed revenue model: agent setup fees + performance splits + platform fees
-- Roadmap phases: Q2 2026 creator onboarding, Q3 2026 backtesting, Q4 2026 marketplace launch, Q1 2027+ scale
+- RunBookAI targeted $350K fundraise on Futardio (2026-03-05)
+- RunBookAI raised $3,600 total (1% of target) before refunding (2026-03-06)
+- RunBookAI proposed revenue model: agent setup fees + performance splits + platform fees
+- RunBookAI roadmap: Q2 2026 creator tools, Q3 2026 verification, Q4 2026 marketplace, Q1 2027+ scale
+- RunBookAI technical architecture: TEE execution, immutable strategy locks, Solana on-chain identity