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that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.

domains/ai-alignment/AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem.md

@@ -21,6 +21,12 @@ Dario Amodei describes AI as "so powerful, such a glittering prize, that it is v
 
 Since [[the internet enabled global communication but not global cognition]], the coordination infrastructure needed doesn't exist yet. This is why [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] -- it solves alignment through architecture rather than attempting governance from outside the system.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2024-11-00-ruiz-serra-factorised-active-inference-multi-agent]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al. (2024) provide formal evidence for the coordination framing through multi-agent active inference: even when individual agents successfully minimize their own expected free energy using factorised generative models with Theory of Mind beliefs about others, the ensemble-level expected free energy 'is not necessarily minimised at the aggregate level.' This demonstrates that alignment cannot be solved at the individual agent level—the interaction structure and coordination mechanisms determine whether individual optimization produces collective intelligence or collective failure. The finding validates that alignment is fundamentally about designing interaction structures that bridge individual and collective optimization, not about perfecting individual agent objectives.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/ai-alignment/factorised-generative-models-enable-decentralized-multi-agent-representation-through-individual-level-beliefs.md

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: ai-alignment
+secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
+description: "Each agent maintains explicit beliefs about other agents' internal states enabling strategic planning without centralized coordination"
+confidence: experimental
+source: "Ruiz-Serra et al., 'Factorised Active Inference for Strategic Multi-Agent Interactions' (AAMAS 2025)"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Factorised generative models enable decentralized multi-agent representation through individual-level beliefs about other agents' internal states
+
+In multi-agent active inference systems, factorisation of the generative model allows each agent to maintain "explicit, individual-level beliefs about the internal states of other agents." This approach enables decentralized representation of the multi-agent system—no agent requires global knowledge or centralized coordination to engage in strategic planning.
+
+Each agent uses its beliefs about other agents' internal states for "strategic planning in a joint context," operationalizing Theory of Mind within the active inference framework. This is distinct from approaches that require shared world models or centralized orchestration.
+
+The factorised approach scales to complex strategic interactions: Ruiz-Serra et al. demonstrate the framework in iterated normal-form games with 2 and 3 players, showing how agents navigate both cooperative and non-cooperative strategic contexts using only their individual beliefs about others.
+
+## Evidence
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al. (2024) introduce factorised generative models for multi-agent active inference, where "each agent maintains explicit, individual-level beliefs about the internal states of other agents" through factorisation of the generative model. This enables "strategic planning in a joint context" without requiring centralized coordination or shared representations.
+
+The paper applies this framework to game-theoretic settings (iterated normal-form games with 2-3 players), demonstrating that agents can engage in strategic interaction using only their individual beliefs about others' internal states.
+
+## Architectural Implications
+
+This approach provides a formal foundation for decentralized multi-agent architectures:
+
+1. **No centralized world model required**: Each agent maintains its own beliefs about others, eliminating single points of failure and scaling bottlenecks.
+
+2. **Theory of Mind as computational mechanism**: Strategic planning emerges from individual beliefs about others' internal states, not from explicit communication protocols or shared representations.
+
+3. **Scalable strategic interaction**: The factorised approach extends to N-agent systems without requiring exponential growth in representational complexity.
+
+However, as demonstrated in [[individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference]], decentralized representation does not automatically produce collective optimization—explicit coordination mechanisms remain necessary.
+
+---
+
+Relevant Notes:
+- [[individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference]]
+- [[subagent hierarchies outperform peer multi-agent architectures in practice because deployed systems consistently converge on one primary agent controlling specialized helpers]]
+- [[AI agent orchestration that routes data and tools between specialized models outperforms both single-model and human-coached approaches because the orchestrator contributes coordination not direction]]

domains/ai-alignment/individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference.md

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: ai-alignment
+secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
+description: "Ensemble-level expected free energy characterizes basins of attraction that may not align with individual agent optima, revealing a fundamental tension between individual and collective optimization"
+confidence: experimental
+source: "Ruiz-Serra et al., 'Factorised Active Inference for Strategic Multi-Agent Interactions' (AAMAS 2025)"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Individual free energy minimization does not guarantee collective optimization in multi-agent active inference systems
+
+When multiple active inference agents interact strategically, each agent minimizes its own expected free energy (EFE) based on beliefs about other agents' internal states. However, the ensemble-level expected free energy—which characterizes basins of attraction in games with multiple Nash Equilibria—is not necessarily minimized at the aggregate level.
+
+This finding reveals a fundamental tension between individual and collective optimization in multi-agent active inference systems. Even when each agent successfully minimizes its individual free energy through strategic planning that incorporates Theory of Mind beliefs about others, the collective outcome may be suboptimal from a system-wide perspective.
+
+## Evidence
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al. (2024) applied factorised active inference to strategic multi-agent interactions in game-theoretic settings. Their key finding: "the ensemble-level expected free energy characterizes basins of attraction of games with multiple Nash Equilibria under different conditions" but "it is not necessarily minimised at the aggregate level."
+
+The paper demonstrates this through iterated normal-form games with 2 and 3 players, showing how the specific interaction structure (game type, communication channels) determines whether individual optimization produces collective intelligence or collective failure. The factorised generative model approach—where each agent maintains explicit individual-level beliefs about other agents' internal states—enables decentralized representation but does not automatically align individual and collective objectives.
+
+## Implications
+
+This result has direct architectural implications for multi-agent AI systems:
+
+1. **Explicit coordination mechanisms are necessary**: Simply giving each agent active inference dynamics and assuming collective optimization will emerge is insufficient. The gap between individual and collective optimization must be bridged through deliberate design.
+
+2. **Interaction structure matters**: The specific form of agent interaction—not just individual agent capability—determines whether collective intelligence emerges or whether individually optimal agents produce suboptimal collective outcomes.
+
+3. **Evaluator roles are formally justified**: In systems like the Teleo architecture, Leo's cross-domain synthesis role exists precisely because individual agent optimization doesn't guarantee collective optimization. The evaluator function bridges individual and collective free energy.
+
+---
+
+Relevant Notes:
+- [[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]]
+- [[collective intelligence requires diversity as a structural precondition not a moral preference]]
+- [[safe AI development requires building alignment mechanisms before scaling capability]]
+- [[AGI may emerge as a patchwork of coordinating sub-AGI agents rather than a single monolithic system]]

domains/ai-alignment/subagent hierarchies outperform peer multi-agent architectures in practice because deployed systems consistently converge on one primary agent controlling specialized helpers.md

@@ -21,6 +21,12 @@ This observation creates tension with [[multi-model collaboration solved problem
 
 For the collective superintelligence thesis, this is important. If subagent hierarchies consistently outperform peer architectures, then [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] needs to specify what "collective" means architecturally — not flat peer networks, but nested hierarchies with human principals at the top.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (challenge)
+*Source: [[2024-11-00-ruiz-serra-factorised-active-inference-multi-agent]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Ruiz-Serra et al.'s factorised active inference framework demonstrates successful peer multi-agent coordination without hierarchical control. Each agent maintains individual-level beliefs about others' internal states and performs strategic planning in a joint context through decentralized representation. The framework successfully handles iterated normal-form games with 2-3 players without requiring a primary controller. However, the finding that ensemble-level expected free energy is not necessarily minimized at the aggregate level suggests that while peer architectures can function, they may require explicit coordination mechanisms (effectively reintroducing hierarchy) to achieve collective optimization. This partially challenges the claim while explaining why hierarchies emerge in practice.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:
@@ -30,4 +36,4 @@ Relevant Notes:
 - [[collective superintelligence is the alternative to monolithic AI controlled by a few]] — needs architectural specification: hierarchy, not flat networks
 
 Topics:
-- [[domains/ai-alignment/_map]]
+- domains/ai-alignment/_map

domains/internet-finance/MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md

@@ -87,6 +87,9 @@ Futardio cult launch (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04) demonstrates MetaDAO's platform
 *Source: [[2024-06-05-futardio-proposal-fund-futuredaos-token-migrator]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
 
 FutureDAO's token migrator extends the unruggable ICO concept to community takeovers of existing projects. The tool uses a 60% presale threshold as the success condition: if presale reaches 60% of target, migration proceeds with new LP creation; if not, all SOL is refunded and new tokens are burned. This applies the conditional market logic to post-launch rescues rather than just initial launches. The proposal describes the tool as addressing 'Rugged Projects: Preserve community and restore value in projects affected by rug pulls' and 'Hostile Takeovers: Enabling projects to acquire other projects and empowering communities to assert control over failed project teams.' The mechanism creates on-chain enforcement of community coordination thresholds for takeover scenarios, extending MetaDAO's unruggable ICO pattern to the secondary market for abandoned projects.
+*Source: [[2026-03-09-futarddotio-x-archive]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Futardio extends MetaDAO's ownership coin infrastructure to permissionless launches. While MetaDAO operates curated ICOs, Futardio allows anyone to create an ownership coin raise without approval. The architecture separates the protocol layer (MetaDAO/Autocrat) from the application layer (Futardio), enabling scalability beyond curated launches. The first Futardio raise achieved $11M committed against $50K target, demonstrating that permissionless ownership coin launches can achieve massive oversubscription (220x) in a single day.
 
 ---
 

domains/internet-finance/futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility.md

@@ -32,6 +32,12 @@ The implication for Living Capital: since [[agents create dozens of proposals bu
 - The "reputational liability" framing assumes MetaDAO's brand is the primary draw — but if futarchy governance itself is the value, the brand is secondary
 - Two-tier systems tend to become de facto caste systems where the lower tier never graduates to the upper tier
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2026-03-09-futarddotio-x-archive]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Futardio explicitly positions itself as separate from MetaDAO with messaging like 'Futardio is not MetaDAO launches' despite being built on MetaDAO's Autocrat infrastructure. The brand separation is deliberate — Futardio is positioned as capital formation infrastructure ('where dreams meet USDC') while MetaDAO/Autocrat remains the protocol layer. This architectural choice suggests that permissionless platforms recognize the need for reputational isolation from their parent protocols.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/internet-finance/futardio-brand-separation-manages-reputational-risk-for-permissionless-launches.md

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: internet-finance
+description: "Futardio maintains deliberate brand separation from MetaDAO to isolate reputational liability from permissionless launches"
+confidence: experimental
+source: "@futarddotio X archive, March 2026"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Futardio's deliberate brand separation from MetaDAO demonstrates that permissionless launch platforms require architectural isolation to manage reputational liability
+
+Futardio positions itself as "where dreams meet USDC" and maintains explicit brand distance from MetaDAO despite being built on MetaDAO's Autocrat infrastructure. The account emphasizes that "Futardio is not 'MetaDAO launches'" — a deliberate architectural choice that suggests permissionless platforms cannot share brand identity with their parent protocols.
+
+This separation supports the claim that [[futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility]]. When anyone can launch without approval, the platform cannot vouch for quality, so brand architecture must reflect this structural difference. The positioning as "capital formation infrastructure, not governance" further reinforces the separation — Futardio is the application layer while MetaDAO/Autocrat remains the protocol layer.
+
+## Evidence
+- Explicit messaging: "Futardio is not 'MetaDAO launches'"
+- Separate brand identity and positioning
+- Built on Autocrat but operates independently
+- "Where dreams meet USDC" tagline emphasizes capital formation over governance
+- Source: @futarddotio official account messaging
+
+## Mechanism Details
+- Permissionless: no MetaDAO approval required for launch
+- Automated: time-based preference curves, hard caps, minimum thresholds
+- Infrastructure layer: Autocrat protocol (MetaDAO)
+- Application layer: Futardio product (independent brand)
+
+## Limitations
+- Brand separation is stated positioning, not measured reputational outcome
+- No data on whether this separation actually prevents reputational contagion
+- Single source (Futardio's own messaging) — no independent verification of strategy rationale
+- Unclear whether separation is defensive (protecting MetaDAO) or offensive (building independent brand value)
+
+## Related Claims
+- [[futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility]]
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]]

domains/internet-finance/futardio-first-raise-220x-oversubscription-proves-permissionless-capital-formation-demand.md

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+---
+type: claim
+domain: internet-finance
+description: "Futardio's first raise achieving 220x oversubscription ($11M vs $50K target) demonstrates market demand for permissionless ownership coin launches"
+confidence: experimental
+source: "@futarddotio X archive, March 2026"
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Futardio's first raise achieving $11M committed against $50K target (220x oversubscription) demonstrates market demand for permissionless ownership coin launches
+
+The first ownership coin raise on Futardio received $11 million in commitments against a $50,000 minimum goal, representing 220x oversubscription. This oversubscription triggered pro-rata allocation with automated refunds for excess capital, demonstrating that permissionless launch infrastructure can execute at scale without human gatekeeping.
+
+This data point supports the broader claim that [[internet capital markets compress fundraising from months to days because permissionless raises eliminate gatekeepers while futarchy replaces due diligence bottlenecks with real-time market pricing]], though a single raise is insufficient to prove the claim independently. The 220x ratio suggests capital formation bottlenecks are access-driven (deal scarcity) rather than capital-supply-driven (insufficient USDC).
+
+The automated pro-rata allocation and refund mechanism handled the oversubscription without human intervention, validating the technical infrastructure for permissionless launches at scale.
+
+## Evidence
+- First Futardio raise: $11M committed vs $50K minimum (220x oversubscription)
+- Pro-rata allocation triggered automatically
+- Refund mechanism executed for excess capital
+- No MetaDAO approval required for launch
+- Source: @futarddotio official account (70 total tweets, high signal-to-noise ratio)
+
+## Limitations
+- Single data point from first raise — subsequent raises may show different patterns
+- Oversubscription may reflect novelty/speculation rather than sustainable demand
+- No data on secondary market performance post-launch
+- No comparison to traditional fundraising timelines or success rates
+
+## Related Claims
+- [[internet capital markets compress fundraising from months to days because permissionless raises eliminate gatekeepers while futarchy replaces due diligence bottlenecks with real-time market pricing]]
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]]
+- [[futardio-cult-raised-11-4-million-in-one-day-through-futarchy-governed-meme-coin-launch]]

domains/internet-finance/internet capital markets compress fundraising from months to days because permissionless raises eliminate gatekeepers while futarchy replaces due diligence bottlenecks with real-time market pricing.md

@@ -38,16 +38,22 @@ The "Claude Code founders" framing is significant. The solo AI-native builder
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (confirm)
-*Source: [[2026-01-01-futardio-launch-mycorealms]] | Added: 2026-03-11 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+*Source: 2026-01-01-futardio-launch-mycorealms | Added: 2026-03-11 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
 
 MycoRealms demonstrates 72-hour permissionless raise window on Futardio for $125,000 USDC with automatic deployment: if target reached, treasury/spending limits/liquidity deploy automatically; if target missed, full refunds execute automatically. No gatekeepers, no due diligence bottleneck — market pricing determines success. This compresses what would traditionally be a multi-month fundraising process (pitch deck preparation, investor meetings, term sheet negotiation, legal documentation, wire transfers) into a 3-day permissionless window. Notably, this includes physical infrastructure (mushroom farm) not just digital projects.
 
 
 ### Additional Evidence (confirm)
-*Source: [[2026-03-03-futardio-launch-futardio-cult]] | Added: 2026-03-11 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+*Source: 2026-03-03-futardio-launch-futardio-cult | Added: 2026-03-11 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
 
 Futardio cult raised $11.4M in under 24 hours through MetaDAO's futarchy platform (launched 2026-03-03, closed 2026-03-04), confirming sub-day fundraising timelines for futarchy-governed launches. This provides concrete timing data supporting the compression thesis: traditional meme coin launches through centralized platforms typically require days to weeks for comparable capital formation.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2026-03-09-futarddotio-x-archive]] | Added: 2026-03-12 | Extractor: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5*
+
+Futardio's first raise received $11M in commitments against a $50K minimum goal (220x oversubscription), demonstrating that permissionless capital formation can achieve massive scale in a single day. The automated pro-rata allocation and refund mechanism handled the oversubscription without human intervention, validating that futarchy infrastructure can execute at scale without traditional gatekeeping approval processes.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

entities/internet-finance/manna-finance-futardio-fundraise.md

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: decision_market
+name: "Manna Finance: Futardio Fundraise"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: failed
+parent_entity: "[[manna-finance]]"
+platform: "futardio"
+proposer: "Manna Finance team"
+proposal_url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/5whxoTjxW4oKeSN4C8yf5JUur7pcSChkPWgmhSZQ8oD5"
+proposal_date: 2026-03-03
+resolution_date: 2026-03-04
+category: "fundraise"
+summary: "Zero-interest CDP protocol on Solana seeking $120K for 12-month runway"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+key_metrics:
+  raise_target: "$120,000"
+  total_committed: "$205"
+  outcome: "refunding"
+  duration: "1 day"
+  oversubscription_ratio: 0.0017
+---
+
+# Manna Finance: Futardio Fundraise
+
+## Summary
+Manna Finance attempted to raise $120,000 through Futardio to build a Liquity V1-style zero-interest CDP protocol on Solana. The fundraise sought 12 months of runway at $10,000/month burn rate, with funds allocated to smart contract audit ($15-25K), mainnet deployment, founder salary, and liquidity bootstrapping. The raise failed catastrophically, receiving only $205 in commitments (0.17% of target) before closing in refunding status after one day.
+
+## Market Data
+- **Outcome:** Failed (refunding)
+- **Raise Target:** $120,000
+- **Total Committed:** $205
+- **Duration:** 1 day (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04)
+- **Oversubscription:** 0.17%
+
+## Significance
+This represents one of the most severe fundraise failures on Futardio's platform, with the raise attracting less than 0.2% of its target. The failure occurred despite detailed documentation including competitive analysis, roadmap, team structure, and go-to-market strategy. The project proposed MetaDAO futarchy governance from launch and positioned itself as the only zero-interest CDP on Solana, but failed to attract capital.
+
+The rapid closure (1 day) and refunding status suggests either lack of market interest in the CDP model on Solana, insufficient team credibility, or poor market timing. The project competed against established Solana stablecoins (USX, USDv, jupUSD, USDGO) with different mechanisms.
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[manna-finance]] — parent entity
+- [[futardio]] — fundraising platform
+- [[metadao]] — planned governance mechanism
+- Attempted implementation of [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]]

entities/internet-finance/manna-finance.md

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: company
+name: "Manna Finance"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: failed
+founded: 2026
+platform: solana
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+key_metrics:
+  raise_target: "$120,000"
+  total_committed: "$205"
+  raise_outcome: "refunding"
+  launch_date: "2026-03-03"
+  close_date: "2026-03-04"
+---
+
+# Manna Finance
+
+Manna Finance is a zero-interest CDP (Collateralized Debt Position) protocol on Solana modeled after Liquity V1. Users deposit SOL as collateral to mint solUSD stablecoin with a one-time borrowing fee and no ongoing interest. The protocol maintains its peg through redemptions (solUSD exchangeable for $1 of SOL) and liquidations via a Stability Pool. Governance was planned via [[metadao]] futarchy from launch.
+
+The project attempted to raise $120,000 through [[futardio]] but received only $205 in commitments before entering refunding status after one day.
+
+## Timeline
+- **2026-03-03** — [[manna-finance-futardio-fundraise]] launched on Futardio seeking $120K for 12-month runway
+- **2026-03-04** — Fundraise closed in refunding status with $205 committed (0.17% of target)
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[futardio]] — fundraising platform
+- [[metadao]] — planned governance mechanism
+- Attempted to implement [[futarchy-based fundraising creates regulatory separation because there are no beneficial owners and investment decisions emerge from market forces not centralized control]]
+- Competed in market described by existing Solana stablecoin landscape (USX, USDv, jupUSD, USDGO)

entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise.md

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: decision_market
+name: "Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise"
+domain: internet-finance
+status: failed
+parent_entity: "[[salmon-wallet]]"
+platform: futardio
+proposal_url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
+proposal_date: 2026-03-03
+resolution_date: 2026-03-04
+category: fundraise
+summary: "Open-source wallet infrastructure project seeking $375K for 12-month runway through futarchy-governed ICO"
+key_metrics:
+  raise_target: "$375,000"
+  total_committed: "$97,535"
+  oversubscription_ratio: 0.26
+  monthly_burn_rate: "$25,000"
+  planned_runway: "12 months"
+token:
+  name: "Salmon Token"
+  ticker: "SAL"
+  mint: "DDPW4sZT9GsSb2mSfY9Yi9EBZGnBQ2LvvJTXCpnLmeta"
+launch_address: "Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Salmon Wallet: Futardio Fundraise
+
+## Summary
+Salmon Wallet attempted to raise $375,000 through MetaDAO's futarchy platform for 12-month operational runway covering wallet development, security, infrastructure, and mobile app releases. Despite being an established project (active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter, $122.5K prior funding), the raise attracted only $97,535 (26% of target) before refunding. First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on the platform.
+
+## Market Data
+- **Outcome:** Failed (refunding)
+- **Raise Target:** $375,000
+- **Total Committed:** $97,535
+- **Oversubscription:** 0.26x
+- **Duration:** 1 day (2026-03-03 to 2026-03-04)
+- **Token:** SAL (Salmon Token)
+
+## Use of Funds (Proposed)
+- **Team:** $18,300/month (73%)
+- **Infrastructure:** $4,200/month (17%)
+- **Growth & Ecosystem:** $2,000/month (8%)
+- **Governance, Legal & Contingency:** $500/month (2%)
+- **Total Monthly Burn:** $25,000
+- **Target Runway:** 12 months
+
+## Roadmap (Proposed)
+- Q2-2026: Android release, WebApp relaunch, signing flow optimization
+- Q3-2026: iOS TestFlight, staking integration, AI transaction security
+- Q4-2026: Custom notifications, portfolio view, Wallet-as-a-Service
+- Q1-2027: Cross-platform optimization, ecosystem integrations
+
+## Significance
+First empirical data point on futarchy adoption friction for operational software infrastructure versus pure capital allocation vehicles. The failed raise suggests futarchy mechanisms face challenges when applied to projects with ongoing operational complexity, team budgets, and multi-quarter development roadmaps. Despite technical credibility and operational history, the project could not achieve minimum viable liquidity in the futarchy market.
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[salmon-wallet]] — parent entity
+- [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]] — empirical confirmation
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — platform scope expansion test
+- [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]] — included traditional operational structures

entities/internet-finance/salmon-wallet.md

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+---
+type: entity
+entity_type: company
+name: Salmon Wallet
+domain: internet-finance
+status: active
+founded: 2022
+website: https://salmonwallet.io/
+github: https://github.com/salmon-wallet
+key_people:
+  - role: team
+    name: undisclosed
+key_metrics:
+  prior_funding: "$122,500"
+  bootstrap_funding: "$80,000"
+  grants_received: "$42,500"
+  futarchy_raise_target: "$375,000"
+  futarchy_raise_actual: "$97,535"
+  monthly_burn_rate: "$25,000"
+tracked_by: rio
+created: 2026-03-11
+---
+
+# Salmon Wallet
+
+Open-source self-custodial cryptocurrency wallet built primarily on Solana with Bitcoin support. Active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter. Attempted futarchy-governed fundraise on MetaDAO platform in March 2026 seeking $375K for 12-month operational runway, raising only $97,535 before refunding. Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue. Governance via SAL token using futarchy model.
+
+## Timeline
+- **2022** — Project founded, listed on Solana wallet adapter, received $80K bootstrap funding
+- **2022-2024** — Received $42.5K in grants (Serum: $2.5K, Eclipse: $40K)
+- **2026-03-03** — [[salmon-wallet-futardio-fundraise]] launched on futard.io seeking $375K
+- **2026-03-04** — Fundraise closed with $97,535 raised (26% of target), status: Refunding
+
+## Relationship to KB
+- [[futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements]] — empirical case of adoption friction for operational software
+- [[MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale]] — first wallet infrastructure project on platform
+- [[futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance]] — included traditional operational structures despite futarchy governance

inbox/archive/2024-11-00-ruiz-serra-factorised-active-inference-multi-agent.md

@@ -7,9 +7,15 @@ date: 2024-11-00
 domain: ai-alignment
 secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
 format: paper
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 priority: medium
 tags: [active-inference, multi-agent, game-theory, strategic-interaction, factorised-generative-model, nash-equilibrium]
+processed_by: theseus
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+claims_extracted: ["individual-free-energy-minimization-does-not-guarantee-collective-optimization-in-multi-agent-active-inference.md", "factorised-generative-models-enable-decentralized-multi-agent-representation-through-individual-level-beliefs.md"]
+enrichments_applied: ["AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem.md", "subagent hierarchies outperform peer multi-agent architectures in practice because deployed systems consistently converge on one primary agent controlling specialized helpers.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "Extracted two novel claims about multi-agent active inference: (1) individual free energy minimization doesn't guarantee collective optimization, and (2) factorised generative models enable decentralized strategic planning through individual beliefs about others. Applied three enrichments extending/challenging existing coordination and collective intelligence claims. The paper provides formal game-theoretic evidence for why explicit coordination mechanisms (like Leo's evaluator role) are necessary in multi-agent systems—individual optimization and collective optimization are not automatically aligned."
 ---
 
 ## Content

inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-manna-finance.md

@@ -6,9 +6,13 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/5whxoTjxW4oKeSN4C8yf5JUur7pcSChkPWgmhSZQ8oD5"
 date: 2026-03-03
 domain: internet-finance
 format: data
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
 event_type: launch
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "Failed fundraise entity extraction. No novel claims about futarchy mechanisms or CDP economics — all information is factual (raise amounts, timeline, competitive positioning). The failure itself is a data point but doesn't constitute an arguable claim without broader pattern evidence. Created entity pages for Manna Finance and its fundraise decision market, updated Futardio timeline."
 ---
 
 ## Launch Details
@@ -186,3 +190,12 @@ We're not pitching to VCs. We're raising from the community that will use and go
 - Token mint: `DQuz3AeodGAoyXV5MG56F1ZqvgRpn1VhFwFskW6Jmeta`
 - Version: v0.7
 - Closed: 2026-03-04
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Manna Finance raised $205 of $120,000 target (0.17% success rate) on Futardio (2026-03-03)
+- Manna proposed zero-interest CDP protocol on Solana with one-time 0.5% borrowing fee
+- Manna planned $10,000/month burn rate: 70% team, 10% infrastructure, 15% marketing, 5% security/legal
+- Manna competitive landscape: USX (Solstice), USDv (Solomon), jupUSD (Jupiter), USDGO (OSL)
+- Manna planned MetaDAO futarchy governance from launch
+- Fundraise closed in refunding status after 1 day (2026-03-04)

inbox/archive/2026-03-03-futardio-launch-salmon-wallet.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/launch/Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF"
 date: 2026-03-03
 domain: internet-finance
 format: data
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana]
 event_type: launch
 processed_by: rio
@@ -14,6 +14,11 @@ processed_date: 2026-03-11
 enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"]
 extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. Enriches existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges."
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+enrichments_applied: ["futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md", "futarchy-governed DAOs converge on traditional corporate governance scaffolding for treasury operations because market mechanisms alone cannot provide operational security and legal compliance.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "First observed futarchy-governed wallet infrastructure project on MetaDAO platform. Failed raise provides empirical data on futarchy adoption friction for operational software vs pure capital allocation vehicles. No new claims extracted — all insights enrich existing claims about MetaDAO scope expansion, adoption barriers, and operational governance challenges. Created entity pages for Salmon Wallet and the decision market, updated Futardio timeline."
 ---
 
 ## Launch Details
@@ -215,3 +220,13 @@ Secondary:
 - Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF
 - Operates own Solana validator for transparent revenue
 - Listed on Solana wallet adapter since 2022
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Salmon Wallet active since 2022, listed on Solana wallet adapter
+- Prior funding: $80K bootstrap + $42.5K grants (Serum $2.5K, Eclipse $40K)
+- Futarchy raise: $97,535/$375,000 (26% of target) before refunding
+- Proposed burn rate: $25K/month for 12-month runway
+- Token: SAL (Salmon Token), mint: DDPW4sZT9GsSb2mSfY9Yi9EBZGnBQ2LvvJTXCpnLmeta
+- Launch address: Aakx1gdDoNQYqiv5uoqdXx56mGr6AbZh73SWpxHrk2qF
+- Operates own Solana validator for revenue

inbox/archive/2026-03-09-futarddotio-x-archive.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: https://x.com/futarddotio
 date: 2026-03-09
 domain: internet-finance
 format: tweet
-status: unprocessed
+status: processed
 tags: [futardio, permissionless-launchpad, ownership-coins, capital-formation, metadao]
 linked_set: metadao-x-landscape-2026-03
 curator_notes: |
@@ -24,6 +24,12 @@ extraction_hints:
   - "Which projects are launching on Futardio vs MetaDAO curated ICOs — market segmentation data"
   - "Low tweet volume means near-100% signal — almost every tweet is substantive"
 priority: medium
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-11
+claims_extracted: ["futardio-first-raise-220x-oversubscription-proves-permissionless-capital-formation-demand.md", "futardio-brand-separation-manages-reputational-risk-for-permissionless-launches.md"]
+enrichments_applied: ["internet capital markets compress fundraising from months to days because permissionless raises eliminate gatekeepers while futarchy replaces due diligence bottlenecks with real-time market pricing.md", "futarchy-governed permissionless launches require brand separation to manage reputational liability because failed projects on a curated platform damage the platforms credibility.md", "MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through unruggable ICOs governed by conditional markets creating the first platform for ownership coins at scale.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
+extraction_notes: "High-signal source with only 70 tweets total. Two major claims extracted: (1) 220x oversubscription as proof of permissionless capital formation demand, (2) brand separation as reputational risk management. Three enrichments to existing claims with concrete data. The $11M/$50K oversubscription ratio is the single most important data point for internet capital markets compression thesis. Low tweet volume means nearly every tweet is substantive — minimal noise filtering required."
 ---
 
 # @futarddotio X Archive (March 2026)
@@ -50,3 +56,10 @@ priority: medium
 ## Noise Filtered Out
 - Very little noise — 70 total tweets, most are substantive announcements or mechanism explanations
 - No casual engagement pattern — this is a pure project account
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- Futardio uses time-based preference curves, hard caps, and minimum thresholds for automated launch mechanics
+- Futardio tagline: 'Where dreams meet USDC'
+- Account has only 70 total tweets as of March 2026, very low noise ratio
+- Futardio built on MetaDAO's Autocrat infrastructure but operates independently