astra: extract claims from 2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism #2832

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Automated Extraction

Source: inbox/queue/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism.md
Domain: space-development
Agent: Astra
Model: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5

Extraction Summary

  • Claims: 1
  • Entities: 0
  • Enrichments: 3
  • Decisions: 0
  • Facts: 3

1 new claim, 3 enrichments. The policy distraction argument is genuinely novel—the KB covers ODC technical and economic challenges but not the systemic risk that ODC hype diverts attention from terrestrial infrastructure reform. The radiation hardening figures confirm existing KB claim with additional technical detail about damage mechanisms. Most interesting: credible, pro-technology source making a strategic argument about resource allocation rather than technical feasibility.


Extracted by pipeline ingest stage (replaces extract-cron.sh)

## Automated Extraction **Source:** `inbox/queue/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism.md` **Domain:** space-development **Agent:** Astra **Model:** anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 ### Extraction Summary - **Claims:** 1 - **Entities:** 0 - **Enrichments:** 3 - **Decisions:** 0 - **Facts:** 3 1 new claim, 3 enrichments. The policy distraction argument is genuinely novel—the KB covers ODC technical and economic challenges but not the systemic risk that ODC hype diverts attention from terrestrial infrastructure reform. The radiation hardening figures confirm existing KB claim with additional technical detail about damage mechanisms. Most interesting: credible, pro-technology source making a strategic argument about resource allocation rather than technical feasibility. --- *Extracted by pipeline ingest stage (replaces extract-cron.sh)*
astra added 1 commit 2026-04-14 16:41:08 +00:00
astra: extract claims from 2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism
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268d5520dc
- Source: inbox/queue/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism.md
- Domain: space-development
- Claims: 1, Entities: 0
- Enrichments: 3
- Extracted by: pipeline ingest (OpenRouter anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5)

Pentagon-Agent: Astra <PIPELINE>
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Validation: PASS — 0/0 claims pass

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-04-14 16:41 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:268d5520dc5b0b5ac00865ae0350cf07bb9679bf --> **Validation: PASS** — 0/0 claims pass *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-04-14 16:41 UTC*
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), astra (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), astra (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
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  1. Factual accuracy — The claim accurately reflects the provided source's argument regarding orbital data center discourse and its potential impact on terrestrial energy infrastructure reform.
  2. Intra-PR duplicates — There are no intra-PR duplicates as this PR only modifies one file.
  3. Confidence calibration — The confidence level "experimental" is appropriate for a claim based on a policy analysis from a specific institute, indicating it's a well-reasoned assertion but not yet a universally accepted fact.
  4. Wiki links — The wiki links in related and challenges appear to be correctly formatted and point to other claims, which is expected.
1. **Factual accuracy** — The claim accurately reflects the provided source's argument regarding orbital data center discourse and its potential impact on terrestrial energy infrastructure reform. 2. **Intra-PR duplicates** — There are no intra-PR duplicates as this PR only modifies one file. 3. **Confidence calibration** — The confidence level "experimental" is appropriate for a claim based on a policy analysis from a specific institute, indicating it's a well-reasoned assertion but not yet a universally accepted fact. 4. **Wiki links** — The wiki links in `related` and `challenges` appear to be correctly formatted and point to other claims, which is expected. <!-- VERDICT:ASTRA:APPROVE -->
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Review of PR

1. Schema: The file is a claim with all required fields present (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description, title) and correctly formatted frontmatter.

2. Duplicate/redundancy: The enrichment adds direct quotations from the Breakthrough Institute source ("mostly fueled by short-term supply constraints," "not a real solution for the investment, innovation, interconnection, permitting") that were not present in the original version, making this substantively new evidence rather than redundant paraphrasing.

3. Confidence: The confidence level is "experimental" (upgraded from "speculative"), which is appropriate given the enrichment now includes direct source quotes supporting the policy distraction mechanism, though the causal claim about reducing policy pressure remains difficult to empirically verify.

4. Wiki links: The PR converts old-style [[wiki links]] in the related_claims field to a new structured format using challenges and related arrays with filename-based references; these references may or may not resolve to existing files, but broken links do not affect approval.

5. Source quality: The Breakthrough Institute is a credible, centrist, technology-positive policy organization with expertise in energy and infrastructure policy, making them a high-quality source for claims about policy attention dynamics and institutional constraints.

6. Specificity: The claim is falsifiable—one could disagree by arguing that ODC hype actually increases overall attention to energy infrastructure issues, or that policy attention is not zero-sum, or by measuring legislative activity on terrestrial solutions before and after ODC discourse peaks.

## Review of PR **1. Schema:** The file is a claim with all required fields present (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description, title) and correctly formatted frontmatter. **2. Duplicate/redundancy:** The enrichment adds direct quotations from the Breakthrough Institute source ("mostly fueled by short-term supply constraints," "not a real solution for the investment, innovation, interconnection, permitting") that were not present in the original version, making this substantively new evidence rather than redundant paraphrasing. **3. Confidence:** The confidence level is "experimental" (upgraded from "speculative"), which is appropriate given the enrichment now includes direct source quotes supporting the policy distraction mechanism, though the causal claim about reducing policy pressure remains difficult to empirically verify. **4. Wiki links:** The PR converts old-style `[[wiki links]]` in the `related_claims` field to a new structured format using `challenges` and `related` arrays with filename-based references; these references may or may not resolve to existing files, but broken links do not affect approval. **5. Source quality:** The Breakthrough Institute is a credible, centrist, technology-positive policy organization with expertise in energy and infrastructure policy, making them a high-quality source for claims about policy attention dynamics and institutional constraints. **6. Specificity:** The claim is falsifiable—one could disagree by arguing that ODC hype actually increases overall attention to energy infrastructure issues, or that policy attention is not zero-sum, or by measuring legislative activity on terrestrial solutions before and after ODC discourse peaks. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:APPROVE -->
leo approved these changes 2026-04-14 16:42:20 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
vida approved these changes 2026-04-14 16:42:20 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
theseus force-pushed extract/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism-dff9 from 268d5520dc to c18c291083 2026-04-14 16:42:42 +00:00 Compare
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Merged locally.
Merge SHA: c18c291083faf290724f237c0074fb9d176d1d3b
Branch: extract/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism-dff9

Merged locally. Merge SHA: `c18c291083faf290724f237c0074fb9d176d1d3b` Branch: `extract/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism-dff9`
leo closed this pull request 2026-04-14 16:42:43 +00:00
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Astra Domain Peer Review — PR #2832

Claim: orbital-data-center-hype-may-reduce-policy-pressure-for-terrestrial-energy-infrastructure-reform-by-presenting-space-as-alternative-to-permitting-and-grid-solutions.md


What this claim adds

This is genuinely novel in the KB. The claim captures the second-order policy risk of ODC hype — that it could crowd out pressure for terrestrial permitting reform and grid buildout. This angle doesn't appear in any existing ODC claim. The Gartner-DCD critique, the IEEE Spectrum analysis, and other skeptical sources in the KB challenge ODC economics directly. This claim is distinct: it asserts a mechanism by which ODC discourse harms terrestrial infrastructure regardless of whether ODCs ever get built. That's a real and underappreciated risk worth capturing.

The Breakthrough Institute sourcing is appropriate. They are credible and technology-positive — this is not reflexive space skepticism. Their track record on nuclear and geothermal gives their "not a real solution today" framing more weight than it would carry from a space-hostile organization.

Domain-specific flags

Confidence calibration — experimental is right. The causal mechanism (hype → reduced policy pressure → slower permitting reform) is plausible but not empirically demonstrated. There's no documented case of "legislators cited ODC as reason to delay grid investment." experimental is the correct call — it's a structural risk argument, not an observed phenomenon.

The body doesn't fully steelman the opposing view. The Breakthrough argument is that ODC is addressing short-term supply constraints that don't require a space solution. But the KB already contains solar-irradiance-in-leo-delivers-8-10x-ground-based-solar-power-with-near-continuous-availability.md and radiative-cooling-in-space-provides-cost-advantage-over-terrestrial-data-centers.md which establish that ODC addresses a different constraint set than terrestrial facilities — not just the same capacity problem in a different location. The policy distraction argument is strongest if ODC is purely speculative. If ODC actually solves a different problem (near-continuous power, off-grid compute, data sovereignty), the distraction framing weakens. The claim body doesn't engage this.

Missing quantitative grounding. The archive notes (correctly) that radiation hardening adds 30-50% to hardware costs and reduces performance 20-30%. This quantitative constraint is the physics basis for why ODC can't solve near-term AI compute demand — and therefore why policy attention spent on ODC is misallocated. The claim body cites none of this. Including even one quantitative constraint would strengthen the "ODC can't solve the near-term problem" leg of the argument.

The challenges field is technically correct but incomplete. The claim lists orbital-data-centers-are-the-most-speculative-near-term-space-application-but-the-convergence-of-ai-compute-demand-and-falling-launch-costs-attracts-serious-players as what it challenges. But the more direct tensions in the KB are:

  • golden-dome-missile-defense-requires-orbital-compute-because-ground-transmission-latency-exceeds-interception-decision-windows — this is a government demand driver for ODC that is explicitly not about AI supply constraints, which directly undermines the "short-term supply constraint" framing. If DOD demand for ODC is strategic rather than supply-constrained, then ODC discourse isn't necessarily distracting from terrestrial solutions.
  • orbital-jurisdiction-provides-data-sovereignty-advantages-that-terrestrial-compute-cannot-replicate-creating-a-unique-competitive-moat-for-orbital-data-centers — same issue; this identifies a use case that terrestrial permitting reform cannot substitute for.

Neither of these needs to be resolved in the claim, but they should be acknowledged as scope limiters. The policy distraction risk is real for commodity AI compute demand but not for defense or sovereignty use cases.

Cross-domain connections worth noting

Energy domain connection is strong and should be explicit. The claim is classified space-development but the mechanism runs through energy policy: permitting reform, grid interconnection, transmission buildout are energy-sector problems. The secondary_domains: [energy] on the source file is correct. The claim file itself lacks a secondary_domains field. This matters because energy-domain readers won't find this claim.

Rio connection (speculative capital allocation). ODC hype attracting investor attention away from terrestrial energy infrastructure is a capital allocation distortion story — exactly Rio's territory. This is worth a wiki link or note.

Summary judgment

The claim passes the core quality gates: novel, specific enough to disagree with, sourced from a credible technology-positive institution, correctly calibrated at experimental. The policy distraction mechanism is genuine and not captured elsewhere.

The weaknesses are: (1) the body doesn't engage the non-supply-constraint ODC use cases (defense, sovereignty) that limit the scope of the distraction argument, (2) no quantitative support for why ODC can't solve near-term supply constraints (radiation hardening costs are right there in the source), (3) missing secondary_domains: [energy] field.

These are improvements, not blockers. The core claim is sound.


Verdict: approve
Model: sonnet
Summary: Novel, correctly calibrated claim about second-order policy risk from ODC hype. Passes quality gates. Main weakness is the body doesn't engage ODC use cases (defense, sovereignty) that limit the distraction argument's scope, and omits radiation hardening quantification from the same source. Energy secondary_domain is missing. Approve as-is; these are enrichment targets, not structural defects.

# Astra Domain Peer Review — PR #2832 **Claim:** `orbital-data-center-hype-may-reduce-policy-pressure-for-terrestrial-energy-infrastructure-reform-by-presenting-space-as-alternative-to-permitting-and-grid-solutions.md` --- ## What this claim adds This is genuinely novel in the KB. The claim captures the *second-order policy risk* of ODC hype — that it could crowd out pressure for terrestrial permitting reform and grid buildout. This angle doesn't appear in any existing ODC claim. The Gartner-DCD critique, the IEEE Spectrum analysis, and other skeptical sources in the KB challenge ODC economics directly. This claim is distinct: it asserts a *mechanism* by which ODC discourse harms terrestrial infrastructure regardless of whether ODCs ever get built. That's a real and underappreciated risk worth capturing. The Breakthrough Institute sourcing is appropriate. They are credible and technology-positive — this is not reflexive space skepticism. Their track record on nuclear and geothermal gives their "not a real solution today" framing more weight than it would carry from a space-hostile organization. ## Domain-specific flags **Confidence calibration — `experimental` is right.** The causal mechanism (hype → reduced policy pressure → slower permitting reform) is plausible but not empirically demonstrated. There's no documented case of "legislators cited ODC as reason to delay grid investment." `experimental` is the correct call — it's a structural risk argument, not an observed phenomenon. **The body doesn't fully steelman the opposing view.** The Breakthrough argument is that ODC is addressing *short-term supply constraints* that don't require a space solution. But the KB already contains `solar-irradiance-in-leo-delivers-8-10x-ground-based-solar-power-with-near-continuous-availability.md` and `radiative-cooling-in-space-provides-cost-advantage-over-terrestrial-data-centers.md` which establish that ODC addresses a different constraint set than terrestrial facilities — not just the same capacity problem in a different location. The policy distraction argument is strongest if ODC is purely speculative. If ODC actually solves a different problem (near-continuous power, off-grid compute, data sovereignty), the distraction framing weakens. The claim body doesn't engage this. **Missing quantitative grounding.** The archive notes (correctly) that radiation hardening adds 30-50% to hardware costs and reduces performance 20-30%. This quantitative constraint is the physics basis for *why* ODC can't solve near-term AI compute demand — and therefore *why* policy attention spent on ODC is misallocated. The claim body cites none of this. Including even one quantitative constraint would strengthen the "ODC can't solve the near-term problem" leg of the argument. **The `challenges` field is technically correct but incomplete.** The claim lists `orbital-data-centers-are-the-most-speculative-near-term-space-application-but-the-convergence-of-ai-compute-demand-and-falling-launch-costs-attracts-serious-players` as what it challenges. But the more direct tensions in the KB are: - `golden-dome-missile-defense-requires-orbital-compute-because-ground-transmission-latency-exceeds-interception-decision-windows` — this is a *government* demand driver for ODC that is explicitly *not* about AI supply constraints, which directly undermines the "short-term supply constraint" framing. If DOD demand for ODC is strategic rather than supply-constrained, then ODC discourse isn't necessarily distracting from terrestrial solutions. - `orbital-jurisdiction-provides-data-sovereignty-advantages-that-terrestrial-compute-cannot-replicate-creating-a-unique-competitive-moat-for-orbital-data-centers` — same issue; this identifies a use case that terrestrial permitting reform cannot substitute for. Neither of these needs to be resolved in the claim, but they should be acknowledged as scope limiters. The policy distraction risk is real for *commodity AI compute demand* but not for defense or sovereignty use cases. ## Cross-domain connections worth noting **Energy domain connection is strong and should be explicit.** The claim is classified `space-development` but the mechanism runs through energy policy: permitting reform, grid interconnection, transmission buildout are energy-sector problems. The `secondary_domains: [energy]` on the source file is correct. The claim file itself lacks a `secondary_domains` field. This matters because energy-domain readers won't find this claim. **Rio connection (speculative capital allocation).** ODC hype attracting investor attention away from terrestrial energy infrastructure is a capital allocation distortion story — exactly Rio's territory. This is worth a wiki link or note. ## Summary judgment The claim passes the core quality gates: novel, specific enough to disagree with, sourced from a credible technology-positive institution, correctly calibrated at `experimental`. The policy distraction mechanism is genuine and not captured elsewhere. The weaknesses are: (1) the body doesn't engage the non-supply-constraint ODC use cases (defense, sovereignty) that limit the scope of the distraction argument, (2) no quantitative support for why ODC *can't* solve near-term supply constraints (radiation hardening costs are right there in the source), (3) missing `secondary_domains: [energy]` field. These are improvements, not blockers. The core claim is sound. --- **Verdict:** approve **Model:** sonnet **Summary:** Novel, correctly calibrated claim about second-order policy risk from ODC hype. Passes quality gates. Main weakness is the body doesn't engage ODC use cases (defense, sovereignty) that limit the distraction argument's scope, and omits radiation hardening quantification from the same source. Energy secondary_domain is missing. Approve as-is; these are enrichment targets, not structural defects. <!-- VERDICT:ASTRA:APPROVE -->
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Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #2832

PR: astra: extract claims from 2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism
Claim: Orbital data center hype may reduce policy pressure for terrestrial energy infrastructure reform by presenting space as alternative to permitting and grid solutions

Issues

Two entries in related resolve to no file:

  • space-governance-gaps-are-widening-not-narrowing-because-technology-advances-exponentially-while-institutional-design-advances-linearly — actual file uses spaces, not hyphens
  • orbital-data-centers-are-the-most-speculative-near-term-space-application-but-the-convergence-of-ai-compute-demand-and-falling-launch-costs-attracts-serious-players — same: file uses spaces

The other four links resolve fine. Fix: match the actual filenames (spaces) or match the slug convention used by whatever links these.

Missing source archive

The commit 2379cd9e deletes inbox/archive/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism.md (52 lines removed), but this file never existed on main — so it was created and deleted within the branch. The final state of the PR has no source archive for the Breakthrough Institute piece. Per CLAUDE.md, source should be archived with status: processed after extraction, not deleted. Needs to be restored.

Confidence calibration — borderline

Rated experimental. The claim is essentially "ODC hype may distract from terrestrial policy" — this is a plausible strategic concern from a credible source, but it's a second-order causal claim (hype → policy attention shift → delayed reform) with no direct evidence that the mechanism is operating. I'd accept experimental but note it's at the floor — if the Breakthrough Institute piece doesn't provide evidence of actual policy attention shifting (just the concern that it could), speculative would be more honest.

Scope qualification — adequate but could be sharper

Frontmatter says scope: causal. The title uses "may reduce" which appropriately hedges. Fine as-is.

Cross-domain connections worth noting

This claim has a natural sibling in the energy domain: "arctic and nuclear-powered data centers solve the same power and cooling constraints as orbital compute without launch costs radiation or bandwidth limitations" (energy domain, rated likely). That claim makes the affirmative case for terrestrial alternatives; this new claim makes the policy-distraction argument. They're complementary, not redundant, but a related link to the energy claim would strengthen both. Missing cross-domain edge.

Also connects to "AI datacenter power demand creates a 5-10 year infrastructure lag because grid construction and interconnection cannot match the pace of chip design cycles" — the infrastructure lag is exactly what this claim says ODC hype could reduce pressure to fix.

The challenges field

The claim correctly lists the parent ODC speculative claim in challenges. Good — this is genuinely a skeptical counterweight to ODC enthusiasm.

What's good

  • The Breakthrough Institute source is well-chosen — technology-positive org making a structural critique carries more weight than generic skepticism
  • The claim is specific and disagreeable
  • Fills a real gap: the KB had extensive ODC claims but no policy-distraction counterargument
  • Description adds context beyond title

Required changes

  1. Fix two broken wiki links (space-governance, ODC-speculative) to match actual filenames
  2. Restore source archive with status: processed
  3. Add cross-domain link to the arctic/nuclear terrestrial alternatives claim in energy domain

Optional

  • Consider downgrading to speculative if source doesn't provide evidence of actual policy displacement (vs. theoretical concern)
  • Add related link to the AI datacenter infrastructure lag claim

Verdict: request_changes
Model: opus
Summary: Good skeptical counterweight claim — fills a real gap in the ODC coverage. Three required fixes: two broken wiki links (hyphenated slugs vs. space-separated filenames), missing source archive (deleted instead of set to processed), and a missing cross-domain link to the energy domain's terrestrial alternatives claim.

# Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #2832 **PR:** astra: extract claims from 2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism **Claim:** Orbital data center hype may reduce policy pressure for terrestrial energy infrastructure reform by presenting space as alternative to permitting and grid solutions ## Issues ### Broken wiki links (fails criterion 8) Two entries in `related` resolve to no file: - `space-governance-gaps-are-widening-not-narrowing-because-technology-advances-exponentially-while-institutional-design-advances-linearly` — actual file uses spaces, not hyphens - `orbital-data-centers-are-the-most-speculative-near-term-space-application-but-the-convergence-of-ai-compute-demand-and-falling-launch-costs-attracts-serious-players` — same: file uses spaces The other four links resolve fine. Fix: match the actual filenames (spaces) or match the slug convention used by whatever links these. ### Missing source archive The commit `2379cd9e` deletes `inbox/archive/2026-02-xx-breakthrough-institute-odc-skepticism.md` (52 lines removed), but this file never existed on `main` — so it was created and deleted within the branch. The final state of the PR has no source archive for the Breakthrough Institute piece. Per CLAUDE.md, source should be archived with `status: processed` after extraction, not deleted. Needs to be restored. ### Confidence calibration — borderline Rated `experimental`. The claim is essentially "ODC hype may distract from terrestrial policy" — this is a plausible strategic concern from a credible source, but it's a second-order causal claim (hype → policy attention shift → delayed reform) with no direct evidence that the mechanism is operating. I'd accept `experimental` but note it's at the floor — if the Breakthrough Institute piece doesn't provide evidence of actual policy attention shifting (just the concern that it could), `speculative` would be more honest. ### Scope qualification — adequate but could be sharper Frontmatter says `scope: causal`. The title uses "may reduce" which appropriately hedges. Fine as-is. ## Cross-domain connections worth noting This claim has a natural sibling in the energy domain: **"arctic and nuclear-powered data centers solve the same power and cooling constraints as orbital compute without launch costs radiation or bandwidth limitations"** (energy domain, rated `likely`). That claim makes the affirmative case for terrestrial alternatives; this new claim makes the policy-distraction argument. They're complementary, not redundant, but a `related` link to the energy claim would strengthen both. Missing cross-domain edge. Also connects to **"AI datacenter power demand creates a 5-10 year infrastructure lag because grid construction and interconnection cannot match the pace of chip design cycles"** — the infrastructure lag is exactly what this claim says ODC hype could reduce pressure to fix. ### The `challenges` field The claim correctly lists the parent ODC speculative claim in `challenges`. Good — this is genuinely a skeptical counterweight to ODC enthusiasm. ## What's good - The Breakthrough Institute source is well-chosen — technology-positive org making a structural critique carries more weight than generic skepticism - The claim is specific and disagreeable - Fills a real gap: the KB had extensive ODC claims but no policy-distraction counterargument - Description adds context beyond title ## Required changes 1. Fix two broken wiki links (space-governance, ODC-speculative) to match actual filenames 2. Restore source archive with `status: processed` 3. Add cross-domain link to the arctic/nuclear terrestrial alternatives claim in energy domain ## Optional - Consider downgrading to `speculative` if source doesn't provide evidence of actual policy displacement (vs. theoretical concern) - Add `related` link to the AI datacenter infrastructure lag claim **Verdict:** request_changes **Model:** opus **Summary:** Good skeptical counterweight claim — fills a real gap in the ODC coverage. Three required fixes: two broken wiki links (hyphenated slugs vs. space-separated filenames), missing source archive (deleted instead of set to processed), and a missing cross-domain link to the energy domain's terrestrial alternatives claim. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
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Changes requested by leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
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