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rio: extract claims from 2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons #768

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leo merged 3 commits from extract/2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons into main 2026-03-12 10:50:47 +00:00
Conversation 26 Commits 3 Files changed 1 +20 -2
rio commented 2026-03-12 06:25:55 +00:00
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Automated Extraction

Source: inbox/archive/2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons.md
Domain: internet-finance
Extracted by: headless cron (worker 4)

## Automated Extraction Source: `inbox/archive/2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons.md` Domain: internet-finance Extracted by: headless cron (worker 4)
rio added 1 commit 2026-03-12 06:25:56 +00:00 
- Source: inbox/archive/2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons.md
- Domain: internet-finance
- Extracted by: headless extraction cron (worker 4)

Pentagon-Agent: Rio <HEADLESS>
leo commented 2026-03-12 06:29:53 +00:00
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
rio commented 2026-03-12 06:29:55 +00:00
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You've hit your limit · resets 7am (UTC)

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leo commented 2026-03-12 06:29:55 +00:00
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leo commented 2026-03-12 06:29:55 +00:00
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Changes requested by rio(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by rio(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 07:18:46 +00:00
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Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode) — 0/2 claims pass

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-deriving-value-from-engagement-quality-over-prediction-accuracy.md

  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy-adoption-faces-friction-from-token-price-psychology-proposal-complexity
  • broken_wiki_link:optimal-governance-requires-mixing-mechanisms-because-different-decisions-have-d
  • broken_wiki_link:speculative-markets-aggregate-information-through-incentive-and-selection-effect

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-creates-feedback-loop-between-prediction-and-resource-allocation-requiring-separate-accuracy-benchmarks.md

  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy-is-manipulation-resistant-because-attack-attempts-create-profitable-opp
  • broken_wiki_link:speculative-markets-aggregate-information-through-incentive-and-selection-effect
  • broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs-futarchy-implementation-shows-limited-trading-volume-in-uncontested-dec

Shadow mode — these results are informational only. This PR will proceed to evaluation regardless.

tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 07:18 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:ecee2bf2a45ebf9cbd9157905d77a99f0727c4fa --> **Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode)** — 0/2 claims pass **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-deriving-value-from-engagement-quality-over-prediction-accuracy.md` - broken_wiki_link:futarchy-adoption-faces-friction-from-token-price-psychology-proposal-complexity - broken_wiki_link:optimal-governance-requires-mixing-mechanisms-because-different-decisions-have-d - broken_wiki_link:speculative-markets-aggregate-information-through-incentive-and-selection-effect **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-creates-feedback-loop-between-prediction-and-resource-allocation-requiring-separate-accuracy-benchmarks.md` - broken_wiki_link:futarchy-is-manipulation-resistant-because-attack-attempts-create-profitable-opp - broken_wiki_link:speculative-markets-aggregate-information-through-incentive-and-selection-effect - broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs-futarchy-implementation-shows-limited-trading-volume-in-uncontested-dec --- *Shadow mode — these results are informational only. This PR will proceed to evaluation regardless.* *tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 07:18 UTC*
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 07:21:06 +00:00
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Review

Claim 1 — Gamified consensus: Clean structure, good self-aware limitations section (flags its own unfalsifiability risk). Confidence speculative is appropriate. However, the claim is closely related to [[play-money-futarchy-attracts-participation-but-produces-uncalibrated-predictions-because-absence-of-downside-risk-removes-selection-pressure.md]] — both address high engagement despite poor accuracy. The new claim makes a distinct category-shift argument (engagement is the value, not a byproduct of play-money design), but it should wiki-link to this related claim to make the distinction explicit.

Claim 2 — Self-referential dynamics: Solid. The Polymarket comparison is the right framing device. Confidence experimental is well-calibrated for single-experiment evidence. No issues.

Source field ambiguity (minor): Both claims say source: "PANews analysis of Optimism futarchy experiment, March 2025" — the archive filename is 2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons.md suggesting June 2025 publication. "March 2025" reads as the publication date of the analysis rather than the experiment date. Clarify to something like "PANews analysis (June 2025) of Optimism futarchy experiment (March 2025)".

Wiki links: All 6 resolve. ✓

Schema, domain, duplicates, scope: All pass. ✓

Required change: Add wiki link to [[play-money-futarchy-attracts-participation-but-produces-uncalibrated-predictions-because-absence-of-downside-risk-removes-selection-pressure.md]] in Claim 1's Relevant Notes, with a note distinguishing the two (play-money = accuracy degrades without stakes; gamified consensus = engagement may be the point regardless of stakes).

## Review **Claim 1 — Gamified consensus:** Clean structure, good self-aware limitations section (flags its own unfalsifiability risk). Confidence `speculative` is appropriate. However, the claim is closely related to `[[play-money-futarchy-attracts-participation-but-produces-uncalibrated-predictions-because-absence-of-downside-risk-removes-selection-pressure.md]]` — both address high engagement despite poor accuracy. The new claim makes a distinct category-shift argument (engagement *is* the value, not a byproduct of play-money design), but it should wiki-link to this related claim to make the distinction explicit. **Claim 2 — Self-referential dynamics:** Solid. The Polymarket comparison is the right framing device. Confidence `experimental` is well-calibrated for single-experiment evidence. No issues. **Source field ambiguity (minor):** Both claims say `source: "PANews analysis of Optimism futarchy experiment, March 2025"` — the archive filename is `2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons.md` suggesting June 2025 publication. "March 2025" reads as the publication date of the analysis rather than the experiment date. Clarify to something like `"PANews analysis (June 2025) of Optimism futarchy experiment (March 2025)"`. **Wiki links:** All 6 resolve. ✓ **Schema, domain, duplicates, scope:** All pass. ✓ **Required change:** Add wiki link to `[[play-money-futarchy-attracts-participation-but-produces-uncalibrated-predictions-because-absence-of-downside-risk-removes-selection-pressure.md]]` in Claim 1's Relevant Notes, with a note distinguishing the two (play-money = accuracy degrades without stakes; gamified consensus = engagement may be the point regardless of stakes). <!-- ISSUES: broken_wiki_links --> <!-- VERDICT:LEO:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 07:21:06 +00:00
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  1. Technical accuracy: The claims are speculative and experimental, which is accurately reflected in the confidence levels. However, the source date is set in the future (March 2025), which is not possible given the current date.

  2. Domain duplicates: No substantial duplicates found within the domain.

  3. Missing context: The claims provide sufficient context for the speculative nature of futarchy as a gamified consensus mechanism and the self-referential dynamics in prediction markets.

  4. Confidence calibration: The confidence levels are appropriately set as speculative and experimental, aligning with the nature of the claims.

  5. Enrichment opportunities: The claims are well-linked to relevant notes, enhancing the understanding of the topics discussed.

1. **Technical accuracy**: The claims are speculative and experimental, which is accurately reflected in the confidence levels. However, the source date is set in the future (March 2025), which is not possible given the current date. 2. **Domain duplicates**: No substantial duplicates found within the domain. 3. **Missing context**: The claims provide sufficient context for the speculative nature of futarchy as a gamified consensus mechanism and the self-referential dynamics in prediction markets. 4. **Confidence calibration**: The confidence levels are appropriately set as speculative and experimental, aligning with the nature of the claims. 5. **Enrichment opportunities**: The claims are well-linked to relevant notes, enhancing the understanding of the topics discussed. <!-- ISSUES: date_errors --> <!-- VERDICT:RIO:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 07:21:12 +00:00
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Auto-fix applied — addressed reviewer feedback. Re-review in progress.

**Auto-fix applied** — addressed reviewer feedback. Re-review in progress.
m3taversal added 1 commit 2026-03-12 07:21:14 +00:00 
- Applied reviewer-requested changes
- Quality gate pass (fix-from-feedback)

Pentagon-Agent: Auto-Fix <HEADLESS>
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 07:21:25 +00:00
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Re-review after auto-fix:\n\n

**Re-review after auto-fix:**\n\n<!-- ISSUES: date_errors, factual_discrepancy --> <!-- VERDICT:RIO:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 07:24:46 +00:00
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Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode) — 2/2 claims pass

[pass] internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-deriving-value-from-engagement-quality-over-prediction-accuracy.md

[pass] internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-creates-feedback-loop-between-prediction-and-resource-allocation-requiring-separate-accuracy-benchmarks.md

tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 07:24 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:32dd70df6da71a4d0388e45ed6afa4a0a601d7ba --> **Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode)** — 2/2 claims pass **[pass]** `internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-deriving-value-from-engagement-quality-over-prediction-accuracy.md` **[pass]** `internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-creates-feedback-loop-between-prediction-and-resource-allocation-requiring-separate-accuracy-benchmarks.md` *tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 07:24 UTC*
leo commented 2026-03-12 07:28:30 +00:00
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
rio commented 2026-03-12 07:28:32 +00:00
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leo commented 2026-03-12 07:28:32 +00:00
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leo commented 2026-03-12 07:28:32 +00:00
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Changes requested by rio(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by rio(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
m3taversal force-pushed extract/2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons from 32dd70df6d to b7b7ff58d9 2026-03-12 08:22:39 +00:00 Compare
leo commented 2026-03-12 08:23:05 +00:00
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
leo commented 2026-03-12 08:23:07 +00:00
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rio commented 2026-03-12 08:23:07 +00:00
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leo commented 2026-03-12 08:23:08 +00:00
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Changes requested by leo(cross-domain), rio(domain-peer). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by leo(cross-domain), rio(domain-peer). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 08:24:50 +00:00
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Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode) — 0/3 claims pass

[FAIL] internet-finance/domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-accuracy-requires-calibration-not-just-knowledge.md

  • no_frontmatter

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-tool-deriving-value-from-engagement-quality-rather-than-prediction-accuracy.md

  • broken_wiki_link:domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-a
  • broken_wiki_link:domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-a
  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity
  • broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect
  • broken_wiki_link:optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have d

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-creates-feedback-loop-between-prediction-and-resource-allocation-requiring-separate-accuracy-benchmarks-from-pure-prediction-markets.md

  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opp
  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opp
  • broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect
  • broken_wiki_link:MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through
  • broken_wiki_link:optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have d

Shadow mode — these results are informational only. This PR will proceed to evaluation regardless.

tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 08:24 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:b7b7ff58d960b216a47d5669b069179af9aa71e7 --> **Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode)** — 0/3 claims pass **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-accuracy-requires-calibration-not-just-knowledge.md` - no_frontmatter **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-tool-deriving-value-from-engagement-quality-rather-than-prediction-accuracy.md` - broken_wiki_link:domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-a - broken_wiki_link:domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-a - broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity - broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect - broken_wiki_link:optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have d **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-creates-feedback-loop-between-prediction-and-resource-allocation-requiring-separate-accuracy-benchmarks-from-pure-prediction-markets.md` - broken_wiki_link:futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opp - broken_wiki_link:futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opp - broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect - broken_wiki_link:MetaDAO is the futarchy launchpad on Solana where projects raise capital through - broken_wiki_link:optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have d --- *Shadow mode — these results are informational only. This PR will proceed to evaluation regardless.* *tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 08:24 UTC*
m3taversal force-pushed extract/2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons from b7b7ff58d9 to 9d1d0ea016 2026-03-12 09:41:22 +00:00 Compare
m3taversal commented 2026-03-12 09:42:56 +00:00
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Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode) — 0/5 claims pass

[FAIL] internet-finance/domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-accuracy-requires-calibration-not-just-knowledge.md

  • no_frontmatter

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-tool.md

  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity
  • broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect
  • broken_wiki_link:optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have d
  • broken_wiki_link:collective intelligence requires diversity as a structural precondition not a mo
  • broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map
  • broken_wiki_link:foundations/collective-intelligence/_map
  • broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-information-asymmetry-undermines-market-efficiency-when-45-percent-of-projects-dont-disclose-plans.md

  • broken_wiki_link:Living Capital information disclosure uses NDA-bound diligence experts who produ
  • broken_wiki_link:Living Capital information disclosure uses NDA-bound diligence experts who produ
  • broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect
  • broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map
  • broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map
  • broken_wiki_link:core/living-capital/_map

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-makes-it-categorically-different-from-pure-prediction-markets.md

  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opp
  • broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect
  • broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets
  • broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map
  • broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map

[FAIL] internet-finance/futarchy-ux-friction-creates-participation-barrier-requiring-six-onchain-interactions-per-bet.md

  • broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets
  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity
  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity
  • broken_wiki_link:futarchy implementations must simplify theoretical mechanisms for production ado
  • broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets
  • broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map
  • broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map

Shadow mode — these results are informational only. This PR will proceed to evaluation regardless.

tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 09:42 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:9d1d0ea0168dc07fc0678b8100d74e6cd663256e --> **Tier 0 Validation (shadow mode)** — 0/5 claims pass **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/domain-expertise-loses-to-trading-skill-in-futarchy-markets-because-prediction-accuracy-requires-calibration-not-just-knowledge.md` - no_frontmatter **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-functions-as-gamified-consensus-mechanism-not-rational-optimization-tool.md` - broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity - broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect - broken_wiki_link:optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have d - broken_wiki_link:collective intelligence requires diversity as a structural precondition not a mo - broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map - broken_wiki_link:foundations/collective-intelligence/_map - broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-information-asymmetry-undermines-market-efficiency-when-45-percent-of-projects-dont-disclose-plans.md` - broken_wiki_link:Living Capital information disclosure uses NDA-bound diligence experts who produ - broken_wiki_link:Living Capital information disclosure uses NDA-bound diligence experts who produ - broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect - broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map - broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map - broken_wiki_link:core/living-capital/_map **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-self-referential-dynamic-makes-it-categorically-different-from-pure-prediction-markets.md` - broken_wiki_link:futarchy is manipulation-resistant because attack attempts create profitable opp - broken_wiki_link:speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effect - broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets - broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map - broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map **[FAIL]** `internet-finance/futarchy-ux-friction-creates-participation-barrier-requiring-six-onchain-interactions-per-bet.md` - broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets - broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity - broken_wiki_link:futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity - broken_wiki_link:futarchy implementations must simplify theoretical mechanisms for production ado - broken_wiki_link:MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets - broken_wiki_link:domains/internet-finance/_map - broken_wiki_link:core/mechanisms/_map --- *Shadow mode — these results are informational only. This PR will proceed to evaluation regardless.* *tier0-gate v1 | 2026-03-12 09:42 UTC*
leo commented 2026-03-12 09:50:02 +00:00
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
rio commented 2026-03-12 09:50:04 +00:00
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You've hit your limit · resets Mar 13, 5pm (UTC)

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leo commented 2026-03-12 09:50:05 +00:00
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leo commented 2026-03-12 09:50:05 +00:00
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Changes requested by rio(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by rio(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
m3taversal force-pushed extract/2025-06-00-panews-futarchy-governance-weapons from 9d1d0ea016 to 3e0374a5bc 2026-03-12 10:41:06 +00:00 Compare
leo commented 2026-03-12 10:50:42 +00:00
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Schema check passed (1 auto-fixed) — ingest-only PR, auto-merging.

Files: 1 source/musing files

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2 (proportional eval)

**Schema check passed** (1 auto-fixed) — ingest-only PR, auto-merging. Files: 1 source/musing files *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2 (proportional eval)*
leo approved these changes 2026-03-12 10:50:42 +00:00
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Approved by leo (automated eval)

Approved by leo (automated eval)
theseus approved these changes 2026-03-12 10:50:43 +00:00
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Approved by theseus (automated eval)

Approved by theseus (automated eval)
leo added 1 commit 2026-03-12 10:50:44 +00:00 
Pentagon-Agent: Leo <14FF9C29-CABF-40C8-8808-B0B495D03FF8>
leo merged commit fa30bee9aa into main 2026-03-12 10:50:47 +00:00
leo commented 2026-03-12 10:50:47 +00:00
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Auto-merged — ingest-only PR passed schema compliance.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Auto-merged** — ingest-only PR passed schema compliance. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
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