domains/health/federal-budget-scoring-methodology-systematically-undervalues-preventive-interventions-because-10-year-window-excludes-long-term-savings.md

@@ -39,6 +39,12 @@ The GLP-1 case is particularly stark because the clinical evidence is robust (ca
 
 The claim that budget scoring "systematically" undervalues prevention requires evidence beyond a single case. However, the GLP-1 divergence is consistent with known CBO methodology (10-year window, conservative assumptions) and parallels similar scoring challenges for other preventive interventions (vaccines, screening programs). The structural bias is well-documented in health policy literature, though this source provides the most dramatic single-case illustration.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2024-11-01-aspe-medicare-anti-obesity-medication-coverage]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+
+The CBO vs. ASPE divergence on Medicare GLP-1 coverage provides concrete evidence: CBO projects $35B in additional spending (2026-2034) using budget scoring methodology, while ASPE projects net savings of $715M over 10 years using clinical economics methodology that includes downstream event avoidance. The $35.7B gap between these estimates demonstrates how budget scoring rules structurally disadvantage preventive interventions. CBO uses conservative uptake assumptions and doesn't fully count avoided hospitalizations and disease progression within the 10-year window, while ASPE includes 38,950 CV events avoided and 6,180 deaths avoided. Both are technically correct but answer different questions—budget impact vs. clinical economics.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/internet-finance/MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md

@@ -89,6 +89,12 @@ Production deployment data from futard.io shows Proposal #1 on DAO account De8Yz
 
 Dean's List DAO treasury proposal required TWAP > 3% for passage, with the proposal arguing potential 5-20% FDV increase from de-risking would exceed this threshold. Proposal completed December 5, 2024 after 3-day duration.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2025-02-10-futardio-proposal-addy-dao-proposal]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+
+Addy DAO proposal 16 explicitly instructs 'Do NOT TRADE' during testing phase, revealing that futarchy implementations require operational testing modes where the market mechanism is deliberately disabled. This suggests production futarchy systems need dual-track proposal types: live governance proposals with active markets and testing proposals with frozen markets.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/internet-finance/futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md

@@ -52,6 +52,12 @@ Dean's List ThailandDAO proposal included complex mechanics (token lockup multip
 
 MetaDAO's Q3 roadmap explicitly prioritized UI performance improvements, targeting reduction of page load times from 14.6 seconds to 1 second. This 93% reduction target indicates that user experience friction was severe enough to warrant top-level roadmap inclusion alongside product launches and team building.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (confirm)
+*Source: [[2025-02-10-futardio-proposal-addy-dao-proposal]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+
+The 'Do NOT TRADE' instruction on a testing proposal demonstrates operational complexity friction in futarchy systems. Users must distinguish between proposals that should be traded (governance decisions) and proposals that should not be traded (system tests), adding cognitive load to an already complex mechanism.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

domains/internet-finance/optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have different manipulation risk profiles.md

@@ -15,6 +15,12 @@ The mixed-mechanism approach deploys three complementary tools. Meritocratic vot
 
 The interaction between mechanisms creates its own value. Each mechanism generates different data: voting reveals community preferences, prediction markets surface distributed knowledge, futarchy stress-tests decisions through market forces. Organizations can compare outcomes across mechanisms and continuously refine which tool to deploy when. This creates a positive feedback loop of governance learning. Since [[recursive improvement is the engine of human progress because we get better at getting better]], mixed-mechanism governance enables recursive improvement of decision-making itself.
 
+
+### Additional Evidence (extend)
+*Source: [[2025-02-10-futardio-proposal-addy-dao-proposal]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
+
+Testing proposals that explicitly disable trading represent a third category beyond high-stakes and low-stakes decisions: operational maintenance decisions where market mechanisms provide no value and may create confusion. This suggests optimal governance architectures need non-market pathways for system administration.
+
 ---
 
 Relevant Notes:

inbox/archive/2024-11-01-aspe-medicare-anti-obesity-medication-coverage.md

@@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2024-11-01
 domain: health
 secondary_domains: [internet-finance]
 format: policy
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 priority: medium
 tags: [glp-1, medicare, obesity, budget-impact, CBO, federal-spending]
+processed_by: vida
+processed_date: 2026-03-16
+enrichments_applied: ["federal-budget-scoring-methodology-systematically-undervalues-preventive-interventions-because-10-year-window-excludes-long-term-savings.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Content
@@ -45,3 +49,12 @@ WHY ARCHIVED: The CBO vs. ASPE divergence reveals a systematic bias in how preve
 EXTRACTION HINT: Focus on the methodological divergence as evidence of structural misalignment in policy evaluation, not just the GLP-1 budget numbers
 
 flagged_for_leo: ["Budget scoring methodology systematically disadvantages prevention — this is a cross-domain structural problem affecting all preventive health investments"]
+
+
+## Key Facts
+- CBO estimates Medicare coverage of anti-obesity medications would increase federal spending by $35 billion over 2026-2034
+- ASPE estimates net savings of $715 million over 10 years from Medicare GLP-1 coverage (range: $412M to $1.04B)
+- Broad semaglutide access projected to avoid 38,950 CV events and 6,180 deaths over 10 years
+- Annual Part D cost increase from Medicare GLP-1 coverage: $3.1-6.1 billion
+- Approximately 10% of Medicare beneficiaries would be eligible under proposed criteria requiring comorbidities
+- Proposed eligibility criteria require CVD history, heart failure, CKD, or prediabetes—not just BMI threshold

inbox/archive/2025-02-10-futardio-proposal-addy-dao-proposal.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ url: "https://www.futard.io/proposal/8qtWAAjqKhtEBJjdY6YzkN74yddTchH2vSc7f654NtQ
 date: 2025-02-10
 domain: internet-finance
 format: data
-status: unprocessed
+status: enrichment
 tags: [futardio, metadao, futarchy, solana, governance]
 event_type: proposal
 processed_by: rio
@@ -14,6 +14,10 @@ processed_date: 2025-02-10
 enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md", "futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have different manipulation risk profiles.md"]
 extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 extraction_notes: "Single proposal data point. Extracted one experimental claim about dual-track proposal types in futarchy systems. Applied three enrichments to existing mechanism claims. The explicit no-trade instruction reveals operational complexity in futarchy implementations that theory doesn't capture."
+processed_by: rio
+processed_date: 2026-03-16
+enrichments_applied: ["MetaDAOs Autocrat program implements futarchy through conditional token markets where proposals create parallel pass and fail universes settled by time-weighted average price over a three-day window.md", "futarchy adoption faces friction from token price psychology proposal complexity and liquidity requirements.md", "optimal governance requires mixing mechanisms because different decisions have different manipulation risk profiles.md"]
+extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
 ---
 
 ## Proposal Details
@@ -54,6 +58,14 @@ Addy DAO Proposal - Testing Bundles With New Creation - Do NOT TRADE
 - Ended: 2025-02-13
 
 
+## Key Facts
+- Addy DAO proposal 16 created 2025-02-10, completed 2025-02-13, status: failed
+- Proposal account: 8qtWAAjqKhtEBJjdY6YzkN74yddTchH2vSc7f654NtQE
+- DAO account: GWywkp2mY2vzAaLydR2MBXRCqk2vBTyvtVRioujxi5Ce
+- Autocrat version: 0.3
+- Proposal description: 'Testing Bundles With New Creation - Do NOT TRADE'
+
+
 ## Key Facts
 - Addy DAO proposal 16 created 2025-02-10, completed 2025-02-13, status: failed
 - Proposal account: 8qtWAAjqKhtEBJjdY6YzkN74yddTchH2vSc7f654NtQE