extract: 2026-01-01-ai-deskilling-evidence-synthesis #1209
10 changed files with 211 additions and 4 deletions
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@ -29,6 +29,12 @@ The Commonwealth Fund's 2024 international comparison provides quantified eviden
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The JAMA Internal Medicine 2024 RCT testing intensive food-as-medicine intervention (10 meals/week + education + coaching for 1 year) found NO significant difference in HbA1c, hospitalization, ED use, or total claims between treatment and control groups. This challenges the assumption that SDOH interventions produce strong ROI—the RCT evidence shows null clinical outcomes despite addressing food insecurity directly.
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### Additional Evidence (extend)
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*Source: [[2025-09-01-lancet-public-health-social-prescribing-england-national-rollout]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
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England's social prescribing provides international counterpoint: 1.3M annual referrals with 3,300 link workers represents the operational infrastructure that US SDOH interventions lack. However, UK achieved scale without evidence quality - 15 of 17 economic studies were uncontrolled, 38% attrition, SROI ratios of £1.17-£7.08 but ROI only 0.11-0.43. This suggests infrastructure alone is insufficient without measurement systems.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -29,6 +29,12 @@ Japan's LTCI system addresses the care infrastructure gap that the US relies on
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Caregivers themselves become socially isolated as a direct consequence of caregiving responsibilities. With 63 million Americans providing an average 18 hours/week of unpaid care, and more than 13 million struggling to care for their own health, the caregiving role creates a structural pathway to social isolation. This compounds the $7B Medicare cost: not only are isolated elderly people costly, but the caregiving system creates new isolated individuals from the working-age population.
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### Additional Evidence (confirm)
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*Source: [[2025-09-01-lancet-public-health-social-prescribing-england-national-rollout]] | Added: 2026-03-18*
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England's social prescribing explicitly targets social isolation through link workers connecting patients to community resources. 60% of patients were female, 23% ethnic minorities, with deprived area representation increasing from 23% to 42% (2017-2023). Service refusal declined from 22% to 12%, suggesting acceptability. However, researchers note rollout 'has NOT been sufficiently targeted at areas with highest need' despite equity gains.
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---
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Relevant Notes:
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@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "experienced-developers-slower-with-ai-tools-while-believing-faster-revealing-systematic-perception-gap.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "practitioner-self-reports-systematically-overestimate-ai-productivity-creating-adoption-signal-distortion.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"fixed": 7,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"experienced-developers-slower-with-ai-tools-while-believing-faster-revealing-systematic-perception-gap.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"experienced-developers-slower-with-ai-tools-while-believing-faster-revealing-systematic-perception-gap.md:stripped_wiki_link:agent-generated-code-creates-cognitive-debt",
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"practitioner-self-reports-systematically-overestimate-ai-productivity-creating-adoption-signal-distortion.md:stripped_wiki_link:economic-forces-push-humans-out-of-every-cognitive-loop-wher"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"experienced-developers-slower-with-ai-tools-while-believing-faster-revealing-systematic-perception-gap.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"practitioner-self-reports-systematically-overestimate-ai-productivity-creating-adoption-signal-distortion.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "england-social-prescribing-scaled-to-1-3m-referrals-without-controlled-evidence-creating-inverse-failure-mode-to-proven-but-unscaled-interventions.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 1,
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"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 1,
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"rejected": 1,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"england-social-prescribing-scaled-to-1-3m-referrals-without-controlled-evidence-creating-inverse-failure-mode-to-proven-but-unscaled-interventions.md:set_created:2026-03-18"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"england-social-prescribing-scaled-to-1-3m-referrals-without-controlled-evidence-creating-inverse-failure-mode-to-proven-but-unscaled-interventions.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "protocol-based-quality-filtering-enables-coherent-collaborative-worldbuilding-at-scale-without-centralized-editorial-authority.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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{
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"filename": "found-fiction-grounding-in-reality-makes-collaborative-horror-feel-distinctly-real-by-mimicking-archival-discovery-patterns.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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}
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],
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 2,
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"kept": 0,
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"rejected": 2,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"protocol-based-quality-filtering-enables-coherent-collaborative-worldbuilding-at-scale-without-centralized-editorial-authority.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"protocol-based-quality-filtering-enables-coherent-collaborative-worldbuilding-at-scale-without-centralized-editorial-authority.md:stripped_wiki_link:fanchise-management-is-a-stack-of-increasing-fan-engagement-",
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"protocol-based-quality-filtering-enables-coherent-collaborative-worldbuilding-at-scale-without-centralized-editorial-authority.md:stripped_wiki_link:entertainment-IP-should-be-treated-as-a-multi-sided-platform",
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"found-fiction-grounding-in-reality-makes-collaborative-horror-feel-distinctly-real-by-mimicking-archival-discovery-patterns.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"found-fiction-grounding-in-reality-makes-collaborative-horror-feel-distinctly-real-by-mimicking-archival-discovery-patterns.md:stripped_wiki_link:worldbuilding-as-narrative-infrastructure-creates-communal-m"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"protocol-based-quality-filtering-enables-coherent-collaborative-worldbuilding-at-scale-without-centralized-editorial-authority.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"found-fiction-grounding-in-reality-makes-collaborative-horror-feel-distinctly-real-by-mimicking-archival-discovery-patterns.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
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{
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"rejected_claims": [
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{
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"filename": "ai-deskilling-creates-self-reinforcing-degradation-loop-with-measurable-decline-within-months.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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{
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"filename": "optimal-ai-integration-drifts-to-suboptimal-through-temporal-deskilling-even-when-starting-at-equilibrium.md",
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"issues": [
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"missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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}
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"validation_stats": {
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"total": 2,
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"kept": 0,
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"fixed": 7,
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"fixes_applied": [
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"ai-deskilling-creates-self-reinforcing-degradation-loop-with-measurable-decline-within-months.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"ai-deskilling-creates-self-reinforcing-degradation-loop-with-measurable-decline-within-months.md:stripped_wiki_link:delegating-critical-infrastructure-development-to-ai-creates",
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"ai-deskilling-creates-self-reinforcing-degradation-loop-with-measurable-decline-within-months.md:stripped_wiki_link:economic-forces-push-humans-out-of-every-cognitive-loop-wher",
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"optimal-ai-integration-drifts-to-suboptimal-through-temporal-deskilling-even-when-starting-at-equilibrium.md:set_created:2026-03-18",
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"optimal-ai-integration-drifts-to-suboptimal-through-temporal-deskilling-even-when-starting-at-equilibrium.md:stripped_wiki_link:ai-deskilling-creates-self-reinforcing-degradation-loop-with",
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"optimal-ai-integration-drifts-to-suboptimal-through-temporal-deskilling-even-when-starting-at-equilibrium.md:stripped_wiki_link:economic-forces-push-humans-out-of-every-cognitive-loop-wher",
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"optimal-ai-integration-drifts-to-suboptimal-through-temporal-deskilling-even-when-starting-at-equilibrium.md:stripped_wiki_link:delegating-critical-infrastructure-development-to-ai-creates"
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],
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"rejections": [
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"ai-deskilling-creates-self-reinforcing-degradation-loop-with-measurable-decline-within-months.md:missing_attribution_extractor",
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"optimal-ai-integration-drifts-to-suboptimal-through-temporal-deskilling-even-when-starting-at-equilibrium.md:missing_attribution_extractor"
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]
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},
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"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5",
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"date": "2026-03-18"
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}
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@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date: 2025-07-10
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domain: ai-alignment
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secondary_domains: [collective-intelligence]
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format: paper
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status: unprocessed
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status: null-result
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priority: high
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triage_tag: claim
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tags: [developer-productivity, rct, ai-tools, over-reliance, perception-gap, automation-overshoot]
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processed_by: theseus
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator"
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---
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## Content
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@ -47,3 +51,15 @@ Randomized controlled trial: 16 experienced open-source developers, 246 tasks, m
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: deep technical expertise is a greater force multiplier when combined with AI agents
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WHY ARCHIVED: RCT evidence that challenges the expertise-multiplier claim for expert-on-familiar-codebase context. The 39-point perception gap is a novel finding that explains HOW automation overshoot occurs — practitioners' self-reports systematically mislead adoption decisions.
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## Key Facts
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- METR conducted RCT with 16 experienced open-source developers on 246 tasks
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- Codebases averaged 22k+ GitHub stars, 1M+ lines of code, 5+ years developer experience
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- Primary tool was Cursor Pro with Claude 3.5/3.7 Sonnet
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- Developers had ~50 hours of AI coding tool experience
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- Measured productivity: 19% slower with AI tools
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- Predicted productivity (before): 24% faster
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- Estimated productivity (after): 20% faster
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- AI suggestion acceptance rate: less than 44%
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- Study published 2025-07-10 by METR (@METR_Evals)
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@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date: 2025-09-01
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domain: health
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secondary_domains: []
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format: paper
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status: unprocessed
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status: enrichment
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priority: high
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triage_tag: claim
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tags: [social-prescribing, UK, NHS, link-workers, non-clinical-interventions, international-health-systems, SDOH]
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processed_by: vida
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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enrichments_applied: ["SDOH interventions show strong ROI but adoption stalls because Z-code documentation remains below 3 percent and no operational infrastructure connects screening to action.md", "social isolation costs Medicare 7 billion annually and carries mortality risk equivalent to smoking 15 cigarettes per day making loneliness a clinical condition not a personal problem.md"]
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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---
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## Content
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@ -53,3 +57,20 @@ Economic evidence (Frontiers 2026 systematic review, 18 studies):
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: medical care explains only 10-20 percent of health outcomes because behavioral social and genetic factors dominate as four independent methodologies confirm
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WHY ARCHIVED: First international health system evidence for Vida's KB (addresses Frontier Gap 2). The scale-vs-evidence tension challenges the assumption that non-clinical interventions just need more funding — they may also need better measurement.
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## Key Facts
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- England social prescribing: 9.4 million GP consultations involved social prescribing codes (2019-2023)
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- 5.5 million consultations led to social prescribing referrals
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- 1.3 million patients referred in 2023 alone
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- Over 3,300 link workers employed across England
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- Service refusal declined from 22% to 12% (2019-2023)
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- 60% of patients offered social prescribing were female
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- 23% from ethnic minority groups
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- Deprived area representation increased from 23% to 42% (2017-2023)
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- Economic studies show SROI ratios: £1.17 to £7.08 per £1 invested
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- ROI estimates: only 0.11 to 0.43 per £1 invested
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- 15 of 17 studies were uncontrolled before-and-after designs
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- Mean attrition rate: 38%
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- 28% average reduction in GP service demand post-referral (range: 2-70%)
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- 24% average reduction in A&E attendance (range: 8-27%)
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@ -7,10 +7,14 @@ date: 2025-10-17
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domain: entertainment
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secondary_domains: [cultural-dynamics, collective-intelligence]
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format: essay
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status: unprocessed
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status: null-result
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priority: high
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triage_tag: claim
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tags: [scp-foundation, collaborative-fiction, quality-control, community-governance, narrative-coherence, worldbuilding]
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processed_by: clay
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator"
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---
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## Content
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@ -46,3 +50,13 @@ Analysis of the SCP Foundation as the largest collaborative writing project in h
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: community governance over IP production quality (Session 5 research theme)
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WHY ARCHIVED: SCP Foundation provides the longest-running, largest-scale case study of community-governed narrative production. Directly challenges or extends the four-tier governance spectrum from Session 5 by adding a "protocol + voting" model.
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## Key Facts
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- SCP Foundation has ~9,800 SCP objects as of 2025
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- SCP Foundation has 6,300+ Foundation Tales
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- SCP Foundation operates across 16 language branches
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- SCP Foundation has operated for 18 years (2007-2025)
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- American Journalism article in 2022 suggested SCP may be the largest collaborative writing project in history
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- SCP submissions below -10 community votes are deleted
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- SCP formalized rigorous editing process by 2009
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@ -7,11 +7,15 @@ date: 2026-01-01
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domain: ai-alignment
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secondary_domains: [health, collective-intelligence]
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format: paper
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status: unprocessed
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status: null-result
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priority: high
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triage_tag: claim
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tags: [deskilling, skill-atrophy, automation-complacency, self-reinforcing-loop, cognitive-offloading, expertise-erosion]
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flagged_for_vida: ["Endoscopists deskilled by AI — detection rate dropped from 28.4% to 22.4% when AI removed"]
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processed_by: theseus
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processed_date: 2026-03-18
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "LLM returned 2 claims, 2 rejected by validator"
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---
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## Content
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@ -65,3 +69,10 @@ Reduced human capability → increased AI dependence → further reduced capabil
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## Curator Notes
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PRIMARY CONNECTION: delegating critical infrastructure development to AI creates civilizational fragility because humans lose the ability to understand maintain and fix the systems civilization depends on
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WHY ARCHIVED: Provides the MECHANISM for how civilizational fragility develops — not just through infrastructure delegation but through measurable skill atrophy that makes humans unable to resume control. The feedback loop structure means the process is self-accelerating.
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## Key Facts
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- Endoscopists using AI for colonoscopy assistance showed detection rate drop from 28.4% to 22.4% when AI access was removed (Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, 2025)
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- Springer AI & Society 2025 identified four deskilling dimensions: individual skill atrophy, structural erosion of expertise development systems, systemic organizational vulnerability, and fundamental redefinition of cognitive requirements
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- Illinois Law School faculty found law students using chatbots more prone to critical errors with potential widespread deskilling among younger attorneys
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- Design research (arxiv 2503.03924) identified three 'ironies of AI-assisted design': deskilling, cognitive offloading, and misplaced responsibilities
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