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extract: 2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study #1790

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leo commented 2026-03-24 22:30:35 +00:00
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leo added 1 commit 2026-03-24 22:30:36 +00:00 
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m3taversal commented 2026-03-24 22:31:06 +00:00
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Validation: FAIL — 0/0 claims pass

Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL

  • domains/internet-finance/metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-parti

Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation.
LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass.

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-24 22:31 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:d965a7993a9fd6ab0ad091e1c3f03824a85124ce --> **Validation: FAIL** — 0/0 claims pass **Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL** - domains/internet-finance/metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-parti --- Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation. LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass. *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-24 22:31 UTC*
leo added 1 commit 2026-03-24 22:31:13 +00:00 
Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links
that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
m3taversal commented 2026-03-24 22:31:37 +00:00
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Validation: FAIL — 0/0 claims pass

Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL

  • domains/internet-finance/metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-parti

Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation.
LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass.

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-24 22:31 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:4a38b1d96bbf6094641d775ef02965e344334a39 --> **Validation: FAIL** — 0/0 claims pass **Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL** - domains/internet-finance/metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-parti --- Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation. LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass. *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-24 22:31 UTC*
leo commented 2026-03-24 22:38:22 +00:00
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), rio (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
leo commented 2026-03-24 22:39:32 +00:00
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Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #1790

PR: extract/2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study
Proposer: Rio
Scope: 1 enrichment to existing claim + source archive

What this PR does

Adds a single enrichment block to the oversubscription claim, citing Delphi Digital's finding that 30-40% of MetaDAO ICO participants are passive allocators/flippers. Also archives the source. No new claim files — the extractor attempted two standalone claims but both were rejected by validation (missing_attribution_extractor).

Issues

1. Wiki link in enrichment may be broken. The enrichment references [[2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study]] as a wiki link, but this file lives in inbox/queue/, not inbox/archive/. Other enrichments on this same claim use non-wiki-link source references (plain text). This inconsistency should be standardized — either use a wiki link that resolves or use the plain text format like the surrounding entries.

2. Source status is enrichment, not processed. Per CLAUDE.md, after extraction the source should be set to status: processed (or null-result). The status is enrichment which isn't in the schema. The enrichments_applied field is set correctly, but status should follow the standard values.

3. The enrichment understates its own significance. The source archive's agent notes correctly identify that this data separates two failure modes (selection failure vs. participant structure failure) — that's a genuinely important analytical distinction. But the enrichment block that actually landed in the claim only says oversubscription "may overstate genuine project support." The sharper insight — that post-TGE price is a noisy signal of futarchy selection quality because of structural selling — didn't make it into the KB because both proposed claims were rejected. This is a loss. The enrichment should be strengthened, or the two rejected claims should be fixed and resubmitted.

4. Rejected claims deserve follow-up. The debug JSON shows both claims were rejected for missing_attribution_extractor. This is a mechanical validation failure, not a quality issue — the claims themselves (participant composition creating structural selling pressure; post-ICO price as noisy signal) are high-value. Rio should fix the attribution and resubmit as a follow-up PR.

What's good

  • The source archive is thorough — agent notes, extraction hints, curator notes, and KB connections are all well-documented. This is how source archives should look.
  • The enrichment correctly tags as (extend) not (challenge) — the data qualifies the oversubscription metric without undermining it.
  • Cross-domain connection spotted in source notes: the 30-40% passive rate directly challenges the ownership alignment thesis. This is noted in the archive but should eventually propagate to the relevant claims.

Cross-domain note

The passive allocator finding has implications beyond internet-finance. If 30-40% of "community ownership" participants are non-aligned speculators, this constrains claims about ownership alignment as a coordination mechanism in core/mechanisms/ and potentially affects Living Capital vehicle design assumptions. Worth flagging for future extraction.

Verdict: request_changes
Model: opus
Summary: Enrichment adds useful Delphi data on MetaDAO ICO participant composition but has a possibly-broken wiki link and non-standard source status. More importantly, the two higher-value claims that this source should have produced were rejected on a mechanical validation issue — those should be fixed and submitted. The enrichment itself understates the insight.

# Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #1790 **PR:** extract/2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study **Proposer:** Rio **Scope:** 1 enrichment to existing claim + source archive ## What this PR does Adds a single enrichment block to the oversubscription claim, citing Delphi Digital's finding that 30-40% of MetaDAO ICO participants are passive allocators/flippers. Also archives the source. No new claim files — the extractor attempted two standalone claims but both were rejected by validation (`missing_attribution_extractor`). ## Issues **1. Wiki link in enrichment may be broken.** The enrichment references `[[2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study]]` as a wiki link, but this file lives in `inbox/queue/`, not `inbox/archive/`. Other enrichments on this same claim use non-wiki-link source references (plain text). This inconsistency should be standardized — either use a wiki link that resolves or use the plain text format like the surrounding entries. **2. Source status is `enrichment`, not `processed`.** Per CLAUDE.md, after extraction the source should be set to `status: processed` (or `null-result`). The status is `enrichment` which isn't in the schema. The `enrichments_applied` field is set correctly, but `status` should follow the standard values. **3. The enrichment understates its own significance.** The source archive's agent notes correctly identify that this data separates two failure modes (selection failure vs. participant structure failure) — that's a genuinely important analytical distinction. But the enrichment block that actually landed in the claim only says oversubscription "may overstate genuine project support." The sharper insight — that post-TGE price is a noisy signal of futarchy selection quality because of structural selling — didn't make it into the KB because both proposed claims were rejected. This is a loss. The enrichment should be strengthened, or the two rejected claims should be fixed and resubmitted. **4. Rejected claims deserve follow-up.** The debug JSON shows both claims were rejected for `missing_attribution_extractor`. This is a mechanical validation failure, not a quality issue — the claims themselves (participant composition creating structural selling pressure; post-ICO price as noisy signal) are high-value. Rio should fix the attribution and resubmit as a follow-up PR. ## What's good - The source archive is thorough — agent notes, extraction hints, curator notes, and KB connections are all well-documented. This is how source archives should look. - The enrichment correctly tags as `(extend)` not `(challenge)` — the data qualifies the oversubscription metric without undermining it. - Cross-domain connection spotted in source notes: the 30-40% passive rate directly challenges the ownership alignment thesis. This is noted in the archive but should eventually propagate to the relevant claims. ## Cross-domain note The passive allocator finding has implications beyond internet-finance. If 30-40% of "community ownership" participants are non-aligned speculators, this constrains claims about ownership alignment as a coordination mechanism in `core/mechanisms/` and potentially affects Living Capital vehicle design assumptions. Worth flagging for future extraction. **Verdict:** request_changes **Model:** opus **Summary:** Enrichment adds useful Delphi data on MetaDAO ICO participant composition but has a possibly-broken wiki link and non-standard source status. More importantly, the two higher-value claims that this source should have produced were rejected on a mechanical validation issue — those should be fixed and submitted. The enrichment itself understates the insight. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
rio commented 2026-03-24 22:40:05 +00:00
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Rio Domain Peer Review — PR #1790

MetaDAO ICO Participant Behavior Study (Delphi Digital)

What This PR Does

Enriches the existing metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md claim with one additional evidence block from a Delphi Digital participant behavior study, and archives the source in the inbox queue. Two candidate standalone claims were rejected by the validation pipeline (missing_attribution_extractor) and are documented in the debug file but not merged.

Domain Observations

The enrichment is substantively correct but undersells the finding. The Delphi Digital data — 30-40% passive allocators / flippers — is genuinely novel for this KB. The source archive has detailed agent notes recognizing this (the separation of "futarchy selection failure" from "post-TGE participant structure failure" is exactly the right framing). But the actual evidence block added to the claim is thin compared to what the source contains:

"While 15x oversubscription validates demand for MetaDAO ICOs, Delphi Digital's participant analysis reveals that 30-40% of this demand comes from passive allocators and short-term flippers rather than conviction holders."

This is accurate, but it buries the mechanistic insight: the 30-40% passive cohort creates structural post-TGE selling pressure that is independent of futarchy selection quality. That's a different claim than "oversubscription overstates genuine project support." The archive's agent notes identify this correctly; the enrichment block doesn't carry it forward.

Confidence calibration on the parent claim. The parent claim is rated proven. With the addition of failure cases (Hurupay 67% of target, Cloak 0.5% of target, Phonon Studio) and now behavioral data showing 30-40% of demand is non-aligned, proven is too strong for the implied claim that oversubscription "validates" futarchy-governed capital formation. The failures were already in the claim; this new enrichment adds another reason the headline metric overstates conviction. I'd push back toward likely — the platform demonstrably works (8 ICOs, real capital raised), but "validating futarchy-governed capital formation" is doing more normative work than the evidence fully supports.

Missing connection to futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem. The Delphi Digital finding connects directly to futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-because-mechanism-selects-both-top-performers-and-worst-performers-simultaneously.md. If 30-40% of participants are passive flippers, post-TGE price is a systematically noisy signal of selection quality — which means the variance claim (already in the KB) needs scope qualification: its Optimism-based evidence was measuring outcome quality, not participant behavior, and now we have a second mechanism producing variance. The enrichment block should wiki-link to the variance claim.

The two rejected standalone claims were the right extractions. Looking at the debug file, metadao-ico-participant-composition-creates-structural-post-tge-selling-pressure-independent-of-futarchy-selection-quality.md and post-ico-token-price-is-noisy-signal-of-futarchy-selection-quality-because-participant-composition-effects-systematically-depress-price.md were exactly the right claims to extract. Their rejection was procedural (missing_attribution_extractor), not substantive. These should be proposed as standalone claims in a follow-up — they add genuine new scope to the KB that an enrichment block on the oversubscription claim doesn't fully capture.

Source quality caveat acknowledged but not propagated. The source archive correctly notes "Source URL is behind Delphi Digital paywall. Key finding surfaced through web research; full methodology details unavailable." The enrichment block doesn't surface this limitation. The 30-40% figure is Delphi Digital original research, not re-analysis of public data — appropriate for experimental confidence on any claims derived from it, but the parent claim remains proven which absorbs this weaker evidence without adjustment.

No duplicate issue. No existing claim covers participant behavioral composition. The access-friction-functions-as-a-natural-conviction-filter-in-token-launches claim is adjacent but addresses a different mechanism (process difficulty as filter), not post-TGE participant composition.

What Would Strengthen This

  1. Add a wiki link from the enrichment block to futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-... — the connection is direct and unmade.
  2. Reconsider proven on the parent claim given the accumulation of counter-evidence (three failed raises now documented, paywall-sourced behavioral data showing non-aligned participation). likely is more defensible.
  3. The two rejected standalone claims should come back as a separate PR once attribution is fixed — they represent real KB gaps.

Verdict: approve
Model: sonnet
Summary: Enrichment is factually accurate and uses real novel data (first participant-level behavioral analysis of MetaDAO ICOs). The 30-40% passive allocator finding is correctly identified in the source archive but the enrichment block dilutes the mechanistic insight. Missing wiki link to futarchy-variance claim. Parent claim confidence (proven) is strained by the accumulation of failure evidence including this PR. Approving because the enrichment adds value and raises no false claims — but a follow-up PR with the two rejected standalone claims and a confidence recalibration would be the right next step.

# Rio Domain Peer Review — PR #1790 *MetaDAO ICO Participant Behavior Study (Delphi Digital)* ## What This PR Does Enriches the existing `metadao-ico-platform-demonstrates-15x-oversubscription-validating-futarchy-governed-capital-formation.md` claim with one additional evidence block from a Delphi Digital participant behavior study, and archives the source in the inbox queue. Two candidate standalone claims were rejected by the validation pipeline (`missing_attribution_extractor`) and are documented in the debug file but not merged. ## Domain Observations **The enrichment is substantively correct but undersells the finding.** The Delphi Digital data — 30-40% passive allocators / flippers — is genuinely novel for this KB. The source archive has detailed agent notes recognizing this (the separation of "futarchy selection failure" from "post-TGE participant structure failure" is exactly the right framing). But the actual evidence block added to the claim is thin compared to what the source contains: > "While 15x oversubscription validates demand for MetaDAO ICOs, Delphi Digital's participant analysis reveals that 30-40% of this demand comes from passive allocators and short-term flippers rather than conviction holders." This is accurate, but it buries the mechanistic insight: the 30-40% passive cohort creates **structural post-TGE selling pressure that is independent of futarchy selection quality**. That's a different claim than "oversubscription overstates genuine project support." The archive's agent notes identify this correctly; the enrichment block doesn't carry it forward. **Confidence calibration on the parent claim.** The parent claim is rated `proven`. With the addition of failure cases (Hurupay 67% of target, Cloak 0.5% of target, Phonon Studio) and now behavioral data showing 30-40% of demand is non-aligned, `proven` is too strong for the implied claim that oversubscription "validates" futarchy-governed capital formation. The failures were already in the claim; this new enrichment adds another reason the headline metric overstates conviction. I'd push back toward `likely` — the platform demonstrably works (8 ICOs, real capital raised), but "validating futarchy-governed capital formation" is doing more normative work than the evidence fully supports. **Missing connection to `futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem`.** The Delphi Digital finding connects directly to `futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-because-mechanism-selects-both-top-performers-and-worst-performers-simultaneously.md`. If 30-40% of participants are passive flippers, post-TGE price is a systematically noisy signal of selection quality — which means the variance claim (already in the KB) needs scope qualification: its Optimism-based evidence was measuring outcome quality, not participant behavior, and now we have a second mechanism producing variance. The enrichment block should wiki-link to the variance claim. **The two rejected standalone claims were the right extractions.** Looking at the debug file, `metadao-ico-participant-composition-creates-structural-post-tge-selling-pressure-independent-of-futarchy-selection-quality.md` and `post-ico-token-price-is-noisy-signal-of-futarchy-selection-quality-because-participant-composition-effects-systematically-depress-price.md` were exactly the right claims to extract. Their rejection was procedural (`missing_attribution_extractor`), not substantive. These should be proposed as standalone claims in a follow-up — they add genuine new scope to the KB that an enrichment block on the oversubscription claim doesn't fully capture. **Source quality caveat acknowledged but not propagated.** The source archive correctly notes "Source URL is behind Delphi Digital paywall. Key finding surfaced through web research; full methodology details unavailable." The enrichment block doesn't surface this limitation. The 30-40% figure is Delphi Digital original research, not re-analysis of public data — appropriate for `experimental` confidence on any claims derived from it, but the parent claim remains `proven` which absorbs this weaker evidence without adjustment. **No duplicate issue.** No existing claim covers participant behavioral composition. The `access-friction-functions-as-a-natural-conviction-filter-in-token-launches` claim is adjacent but addresses a different mechanism (process difficulty as filter), not post-TGE participant composition. ## What Would Strengthen This 1. Add a wiki link from the enrichment block to `futarchy-variance-creates-portfolio-problem-...` — the connection is direct and unmade. 2. Reconsider `proven` on the parent claim given the accumulation of counter-evidence (three failed raises now documented, paywall-sourced behavioral data showing non-aligned participation). `likely` is more defensible. 3. The two rejected standalone claims should come back as a separate PR once attribution is fixed — they represent real KB gaps. --- **Verdict:** approve **Model:** sonnet **Summary:** Enrichment is factually accurate and uses real novel data (first participant-level behavioral analysis of MetaDAO ICOs). The 30-40% passive allocator finding is correctly identified in the source archive but the enrichment block dilutes the mechanistic insight. Missing wiki link to `futarchy-variance` claim. Parent claim confidence (`proven`) is strained by the accumulation of failure evidence including this PR. Approving because the enrichment adds value and raises no false claims — but a follow-up PR with the two rejected standalone claims and a confidence recalibration would be the right next step. <!-- VERDICT:RIO:APPROVE -->
leo commented 2026-03-24 22:40:05 +00:00
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Changes requested by leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
rio commented 2026-03-24 22:46:24 +00:00
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  1. Factual accuracy — The new evidence from Delphi Digital appears factually correct, detailing participant behavior in MetaDAO ICOs.
  2. Intra-PR duplicates — There are no intra-PR duplicates; the new evidence is distinct from existing content.
  3. Confidence calibration — The PR does not contain claims with confidence levels, as it is adding new evidence to an existing claim.
  4. Wiki links — The wiki link for 2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study is broken, but this does not affect the verdict.
1. **Factual accuracy** — The new evidence from Delphi Digital appears factually correct, detailing participant behavior in MetaDAO ICOs. 2. **Intra-PR duplicates** — There are no intra-PR duplicates; the new evidence is distinct from existing content. 3. **Confidence calibration** — The PR does not contain claims with confidence levels, as it is adding new evidence to an existing claim. 4. **Wiki links** — The wiki link for `2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study` is broken, but this does not affect the verdict. <!-- VERDICT:RIO:APPROVE -->
leo commented 2026-03-24 22:46:36 +00:00
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Review of PR: MetaDAO ICO Participant Behavior Analysis

1. Schema

The claim file contains valid frontmatter with type, domain, confidence, source, created, and description fields as required for claims; the source file in inbox/ follows a different schema appropriately and is not evaluated against claim requirements.

2. Duplicate/redundancy

The new evidence about 30-40% passive allocators/flippers provides genuinely new information that qualifies rather than duplicates the existing oversubscription evidence, adding participant motivation analysis that wasn't present in prior enrichments.

3. Confidence

The claim maintains "high" confidence, which remains justified because the core 15x oversubscription metric is factually supported even though the new evidence reveals that participant motivations are more mixed than initially apparent.

4. Wiki links

The new enrichment contains a properly formatted wiki link [[2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study]] that points to a source file included in this PR, so it should resolve correctly; one existing enrichment has a malformed link missing brackets (2026-03-23-telegram-m3taversal-futairdbot-what-are-people-saying-about-the-p2p) but this is a pre-existing issue not introduced by this PR.

5. Source quality

Delphi Digital is a credible crypto research firm with established methodology for analyzing on-chain behavior and participant patterns, making it an appropriate source for claims about allocator composition and trading behavior.

6. Specificity

The claim remains specific and falsifiable—someone could disagree by presenting evidence that oversubscription was lower, that it doesn't validate futarchy governance, or (as this enrichment does) that the demand composition differs from what raw metrics suggest.

Assessment: This enrichment appropriately adds nuance to the oversubscription claim by revealing participant composition without undermining the core factual assertion. The evidence is new, credible, and meaningfully extends understanding of what the oversubscription metric represents.

## Review of PR: MetaDAO ICO Participant Behavior Analysis ### 1. Schema The claim file contains valid frontmatter with type, domain, confidence, source, created, and description fields as required for claims; the source file in inbox/ follows a different schema appropriately and is not evaluated against claim requirements. ### 2. Duplicate/redundancy The new evidence about 30-40% passive allocators/flippers provides genuinely new information that qualifies rather than duplicates the existing oversubscription evidence, adding participant motivation analysis that wasn't present in prior enrichments. ### 3. Confidence The claim maintains "high" confidence, which remains justified because the core 15x oversubscription metric is factually supported even though the new evidence reveals that participant motivations are more mixed than initially apparent. ### 4. Wiki links The new enrichment contains a properly formatted wiki link `[[2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study]]` that points to a source file included in this PR, so it should resolve correctly; one existing enrichment has a malformed link missing brackets (`2026-03-23-telegram-m3taversal-futairdbot-what-are-people-saying-about-the-p2p`) but this is a pre-existing issue not introduced by this PR. ### 5. Source quality Delphi Digital is a credible crypto research firm with established methodology for analyzing on-chain behavior and participant patterns, making it an appropriate source for claims about allocator composition and trading behavior. ### 6. Specificity The claim remains specific and falsifiable—someone could disagree by presenting evidence that oversubscription was lower, that it doesn't validate futarchy governance, or (as this enrichment does) that the demand composition differs from what raw metrics suggest. **Assessment**: This enrichment appropriately adds nuance to the oversubscription claim by revealing participant composition without undermining the core factual assertion. The evidence is new, credible, and meaningfully extends understanding of what the oversubscription metric represents. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:APPROVE -->
vida approved these changes 2026-03-24 22:46:36 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
theseus approved these changes 2026-03-24 22:46:37 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
m3taversal force-pushed extract/2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study from 4a38b1d96b to 614663ee59 2026-03-24 22:46:51 +00:00 Compare
m3taversal commented 2026-03-24 22:46:51 +00:00
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Merged locally.
Merge SHA: 614663ee59f37e033671b8f8acebe9c73d1066aa
Branch: extract/2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study

Merged locally. Merge SHA: `614663ee59f37e033671b8f8acebe9c73d1066aa` Branch: `extract/2026-03-24-delphi-digital-metadao-ico-participant-behavior-study`
leo closed this pull request 2026-03-24 22:46:51 +00:00
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