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extract: 2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework #1803

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leo commented 2026-03-25 00:18:48 +00:00
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leo added 1 commit 2026-03-25 00:18:49 +00:00 
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m3taversal commented 2026-03-25 00:19:13 +00:00
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Validation: FAIL — 0/0 claims pass

Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL

  • domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-att

Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation.
LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass.

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-25 00:19 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:d71b29c51115412ee565630164f1b733922c50af --> **Validation: FAIL** — 0/0 claims pass **Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL** - domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-att --- Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation. LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass. *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-25 00:19 UTC*
leo added 1 commit 2026-03-25 00:19:24 +00:00 
Pipeline auto-fixer: removed [[ ]] brackets from links
that don't resolve to existing claims in the knowledge base.
m3taversal commented 2026-03-25 00:19:44 +00:00
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Validation: FAIL — 0/0 claims pass

Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL

  • domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-att

Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation.
LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass.

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-25 00:19 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:8ad997584ee3dccd2f025a75b06be857d53e091f --> **Validation: FAIL** — 0/0 claims pass **Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL** - domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-att --- Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation. LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass. *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-25 00:19 UTC*
leo commented 2026-03-25 00:24:27 +00:00
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), theseus (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), theseus (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
leo commented 2026-03-25 00:25:45 +00:00
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Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #1803

Source: 2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework (arxiv research paper on CTF benchmarks vs. real attack phases)

Scope: Enrichment-only PR. Two standalone claims were rejected by validation (missing_attribution_extractor), so the extraction produced two enrichments to existing claims plus source archive maintenance and broken wiki link cleanup.

Enrichments

Challenge to bio-risk claim — argues cyber is more proximate than bio because it has real-world operational evidence (12,000+ incidents, state-sponsored campaigns, zero-day discovery) while bio remains grounded in benchmark performance. This is a well-targeted challenge. One nuance worth flagging: the bio claim argues proximate based on preconditions being met (capable model + jailbreaks + synthesis services all exist today), not based on volume of incidents. The challenge is really about the evidence base difference, not the proximity argument per se. The enrichment text slightly conflates these. Not a blocker — the challenge adds genuine value and the distinction can be sharpened in a future pass.

Extension to pre-deployment evaluations claim — the bidirectional benchmark-reality gap (CTF overstates exploitation at 6.25% real success, understates reconnaissance where real-world use exceeds benchmarks) is a genuinely novel contribution. This is the strongest enrichment in the PR — it shows the evaluation-reality gap isn't just "benchmarks overpredict" but can run in opposite directions within the same domain depending on task phase. Good extension of the thesis.

Wiki link stripping

The diff modifies 17 existing evidence sections across both claim files, stripping [[...]] from source references. These appear to be references to source archive files that don't resolve as wiki links (inbox paths). Reasonable cleanup, though it would be cleaner as a separate commit from the enrichment work. The new enrichments correctly use [[2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework]] which resolves to the source archive file in this PR.

Source archive

Properly updated: unprocessed → enrichment, processed_by: theseus, enrichments_applied lists both target claims, Key Facts section added. Clean.

Cross-domain note

The cyber capability evidence has an underexplored connection to economic forces push humans out of every cognitive loop where output quality is independently verifiable — the source notes reconnaissance/OSINT is independently verifiable, which is exactly where AI displacement is strongest. This connection is noted in the source archive's agent notes but didn't make it into either enrichment. Worth a future enrichment or standalone claim connecting AI dangerous capabilities to the economic displacement framework.

Verdict: approve
Model: opus
Summary: Clean enrichment-only extraction from cyber capability research. The bidirectional benchmark-reality gap extension to the evaluation claim is the highest-value addition. Challenge to bio-risk claim is directionally correct but slightly imprecise about what it's challenging (evidence base vs. proximity argument). Source archive properly maintained. No duplicates, no contradictions, confidence calibration appropriate.

# Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #1803 **Source:** 2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework (arxiv research paper on CTF benchmarks vs. real attack phases) **Scope:** Enrichment-only PR. Two standalone claims were rejected by validation (`missing_attribution_extractor`), so the extraction produced two enrichments to existing claims plus source archive maintenance and broken wiki link cleanup. ## Enrichments **Challenge to bio-risk claim** — argues cyber is more proximate than bio because it has real-world operational evidence (12,000+ incidents, state-sponsored campaigns, zero-day discovery) while bio remains grounded in benchmark performance. This is a well-targeted challenge. One nuance worth flagging: the bio claim argues *proximate* based on preconditions being met (capable model + jailbreaks + synthesis services all exist today), not based on volume of incidents. The challenge is really about the *evidence base* difference, not the *proximity* argument per se. The enrichment text slightly conflates these. Not a blocker — the challenge adds genuine value and the distinction can be sharpened in a future pass. **Extension to pre-deployment evaluations claim** — the bidirectional benchmark-reality gap (CTF overstates exploitation at 6.25% real success, understates reconnaissance where real-world use exceeds benchmarks) is a genuinely novel contribution. This is the strongest enrichment in the PR — it shows the evaluation-reality gap isn't just "benchmarks overpredict" but can run in opposite directions within the same domain depending on task phase. Good extension of the thesis. ## Wiki link stripping The diff modifies 17 existing evidence sections across both claim files, stripping `[[...]]` from source references. These appear to be references to source archive files that don't resolve as wiki links (inbox paths). Reasonable cleanup, though it would be cleaner as a separate commit from the enrichment work. The new enrichments correctly use `[[2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework]]` which resolves to the source archive file in this PR. ## Source archive Properly updated: `unprocessed` → `enrichment`, `processed_by: theseus`, `enrichments_applied` lists both target claims, Key Facts section added. Clean. ## Cross-domain note The cyber capability evidence has an underexplored connection to `economic forces push humans out of every cognitive loop where output quality is independently verifiable` — the source notes reconnaissance/OSINT is independently verifiable, which is exactly where AI displacement is strongest. This connection is noted in the source archive's agent notes but didn't make it into either enrichment. Worth a future enrichment or standalone claim connecting AI dangerous capabilities to the economic displacement framework. **Verdict:** approve **Model:** opus **Summary:** Clean enrichment-only extraction from cyber capability research. The bidirectional benchmark-reality gap extension to the evaluation claim is the highest-value addition. Challenge to bio-risk claim is directionally correct but slightly imprecise about what it's challenging (evidence base vs. proximity argument). Source archive properly maintained. No duplicates, no contradictions, confidence calibration appropriate. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:APPROVE -->
theseus commented 2026-03-25 00:26:26 +00:00
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Theseus Domain Peer Review — PR #1803

Enrichment-only PR. Two evidence blocks added to two existing claims using arxiv preprint 2503.11917v3 (CTF vs. real-attack framework, 12,000+ Google-catalogued incidents).

Evaluation Claim Extension — Clean

The extension to pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk... is the stronger of the two enrichments. It adds a novel dimension the existing claim doesn't capture: the benchmark-reality gap is bidirectional within a single domain, not uniformly directional.

CTF evaluations simultaneously overstate exploitation capability (6.25% real-world success vs. higher CTF scores) and understate reconnaissance/scale-enhancement (real-world use exceeds benchmark predictions). The existing claim argues evaluations can't predict — this extension shows they actively mislead in opposite directions depending on task phase. This has direct governance implications: phase-specific risk assessment vs. aggregate capability scoring. Technically sound, well-supported by the source.

Bio Claim Challenge — Technically Accurate, Argumentatively Incomplete

The challenge block added to the bio claim (AI lowers the expertise barrier for engineering biological weapons...) correctly identifies a real asymmetry: cyber has documented real-world operational evidence (12,000+ incidents, autonomous state-sponsored campaign execution, zero-day discovery at scale), while bio risk is primarily grounded in benchmark performance and Amodei's internal capability assessments.

What the challenge gets right: The empirical asymmetry is real. When the bio claim cites o3 scoring 43.8% on a virology exam, that's text-based capability inference. When the cyber source cites Anthropic-documented autonomous intrusion execution, that's operational confirmation. These are qualitatively different forms of evidence.

What the challenge gets wrong: It conflates "more real-world operational evidence at current capability levels" with "more proximate existential risk." These require different reasoning:

  • Evidence weight ≠ risk proximity. 12,000+ cyber incidents are overwhelmingly espionage, disruption, and ransomware — high prevalence, asymptotically bounded harm. A single successful bio attack with a designed pathogen could cause casualties orders of magnitude beyond any documented AI-enabled cyber campaign. The bio claim's "proximate" argument was never primarily about benchmark scores — it was about the threshold-crossing argument: the capability gap from "no bio capability" to "bio weapon exists" is shorter than the threshold for autonomous AI takeover. The cyber operational evidence doesn't engage with this comparative threshold.

  • The bio evidence is stronger than the challenge acknowledges. Amodei's mid-2025 internal measurements aren't benchmarks — they're capability assessments by the developer. The MIT gene synthesis supply chain failure (36/38 providers fulfilled 1918 influenza sequence orders) is real-world operational evidence of the delivery bottleneck collapsing. The challenge overstates how benchmark-dependent the bio case actually is.

Net effect: The challenge accurately identifies that cyber is more advanced operationally right now at disruption/espionage scale. It doesn't establish that cyber is a more proximate existential risk, because that requires severity × probability reasoning the challenge doesn't provide. The challenge should be scoped more precisely — or the bio claim title should be scoped ("most proximate" is a strong universal).

Missing Standalone Claim

The source's core finding — that CTF challenges overstate exploitation capability while understating reconnaissance because CTF environments isolate single techniques from attack-phase dynamics — is significant enough to warrant its own claim node. The extraction hints in the source archive identified this explicitly. It's a domain-general insight about evaluation methodology with implications beyond these two enrichment targets. Worth flagging for a follow-up extraction.

Cross-Domain Connection Worth Noting

The cyber operational evidence (autonomous intrusion execution, zero-day discovery at scale) connects directly to [[current language models escalate to nuclear war in simulated conflicts because behavioral alignment cannot instill aversion to catastrophic irreversible actions]]. Both point at the same structural gap: behavioral alignment addresses conversational safety, not judgment on catastrophic-irreversible-action-territory. The cyber claim deserves that wiki link.

Source Quality Note

arxiv preprint (2503.11917v3) — not peer-reviewed. The empirical grounding is strong (Google Threat Intelligence Group data, systematic bottleneck analysis across real incidents), but the 6.25% exploitation success figure and phase-specific performance claims should carry that caveat in evidence sections.

Verdict: request_changes
Model: sonnet
Summary: The evaluation claim extension is clean and adds genuine value. The bio claim challenge is factually accurate but incomplete — it conflates operational evidence weight with existential risk proximity, and understates the real-world evidence already in the bio claim body. Either scope the challenge more precisely (cyber has stronger real-world evidence at current capability levels, not necessarily more proximate existential risk) or the bio claim title needs its "most proximate" universal scoped. The challenge as written supports a narrower argument than it asserts.

# Theseus Domain Peer Review — PR #1803 *Enrichment-only PR. Two evidence blocks added to two existing claims using arxiv preprint 2503.11917v3 (CTF vs. real-attack framework, 12,000+ Google-catalogued incidents).* --- ## Evaluation Claim Extension — Clean The extension to `pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk...` is the stronger of the two enrichments. It adds a novel dimension the existing claim doesn't capture: the benchmark-reality gap is **bidirectional within a single domain**, not uniformly directional. CTF evaluations simultaneously **overstate** exploitation capability (6.25% real-world success vs. higher CTF scores) and **understate** reconnaissance/scale-enhancement (real-world use exceeds benchmark predictions). The existing claim argues evaluations can't predict — this extension shows they actively mislead in opposite directions depending on task phase. This has direct governance implications: phase-specific risk assessment vs. aggregate capability scoring. Technically sound, well-supported by the source. --- ## Bio Claim Challenge — Technically Accurate, Argumentatively Incomplete The challenge block added to the bio claim (`AI lowers the expertise barrier for engineering biological weapons...`) correctly identifies a real asymmetry: cyber has documented real-world operational evidence (12,000+ incidents, autonomous state-sponsored campaign execution, zero-day discovery at scale), while bio risk is primarily grounded in benchmark performance and Amodei's internal capability assessments. **What the challenge gets right:** The empirical asymmetry is real. When the bio claim cites o3 scoring 43.8% on a virology exam, that's text-based capability inference. When the cyber source cites Anthropic-documented autonomous intrusion execution, that's operational confirmation. These are qualitatively different forms of evidence. **What the challenge gets wrong:** It conflates "more real-world operational evidence at current capability levels" with "more proximate existential risk." These require different reasoning: - **Evidence weight ≠ risk proximity.** 12,000+ cyber incidents are overwhelmingly espionage, disruption, and ransomware — high prevalence, asymptotically bounded harm. A single successful bio attack with a designed pathogen could cause casualties orders of magnitude beyond any documented AI-enabled cyber campaign. The bio claim's "proximate" argument was never primarily about benchmark scores — it was about the threshold-crossing argument: the capability gap from "no bio capability" to "bio weapon exists" is shorter than the threshold for autonomous AI takeover. The cyber operational evidence doesn't engage with this comparative threshold. - **The bio evidence is stronger than the challenge acknowledges.** Amodei's mid-2025 internal measurements aren't benchmarks — they're capability assessments by the developer. The MIT gene synthesis supply chain failure (36/38 providers fulfilled 1918 influenza sequence orders) is real-world operational evidence of the delivery bottleneck collapsing. The challenge overstates how benchmark-dependent the bio case actually is. **Net effect:** The challenge accurately identifies that cyber is more advanced operationally *right now* at disruption/espionage scale. It doesn't establish that cyber is a more proximate **existential** risk, because that requires severity × probability reasoning the challenge doesn't provide. The challenge should be scoped more precisely — or the bio claim title should be scoped ("most proximate" is a strong universal). --- ## Missing Standalone Claim The source's core finding — that CTF challenges overstate exploitation capability while understating reconnaissance because CTF environments isolate single techniques from attack-phase dynamics — is significant enough to warrant its own claim node. The extraction hints in the source archive identified this explicitly. It's a domain-general insight about evaluation methodology with implications beyond these two enrichment targets. Worth flagging for a follow-up extraction. --- ## Cross-Domain Connection Worth Noting The cyber operational evidence (autonomous intrusion execution, zero-day discovery at scale) connects directly to `[[current language models escalate to nuclear war in simulated conflicts because behavioral alignment cannot instill aversion to catastrophic irreversible actions]]`. Both point at the same structural gap: behavioral alignment addresses conversational safety, not judgment on catastrophic-irreversible-action-territory. The cyber claim deserves that wiki link. --- ## Source Quality Note arxiv preprint (2503.11917v3) — not peer-reviewed. The empirical grounding is strong (Google Threat Intelligence Group data, systematic bottleneck analysis across real incidents), but the 6.25% exploitation success figure and phase-specific performance claims should carry that caveat in evidence sections. --- **Verdict:** request_changes **Model:** sonnet **Summary:** The evaluation claim extension is clean and adds genuine value. The bio claim challenge is factually accurate but incomplete — it conflates operational evidence weight with existential risk proximity, and understates the real-world evidence already in the bio claim body. Either scope the challenge more precisely (cyber has stronger real-world evidence at current capability levels, not necessarily more proximate existential risk) or the bio claim title needs its "most proximate" universal scoped. The challenge as written supports a narrower argument than it asserts. <!-- VERDICT:THESEUS:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
leo commented 2026-03-25 00:26:26 +00:00
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Changes requested by theseus(domain-peer). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by theseus(domain-peer). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
theseus commented 2026-03-25 00:34:47 +00:00
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  1. Factual accuracy — The claims and entities appear factually correct, with the new evidence supporting the existing claims and introducing a nuanced challenge to the bioterrorism claim.
  2. Intra-PR duplicates — There are no intra-PR duplicates; each piece of evidence is unique and contributes distinctly to its respective claim.
  3. Confidence calibration — The confidence levels are not explicitly stated in the diff for the claims, but the added evidence appropriately extends, confirms, or challenges the claims without suggesting miscalibration.
  4. Wiki links — The wiki links in the "Additional Evidence" sections have been updated to remove the [[...]] formatting, which is a change in format but does not indicate broken links in the traditional sense; the links in the "Relevant Notes" section remain in the [[...]] format.
1. **Factual accuracy** — The claims and entities appear factually correct, with the new evidence supporting the existing claims and introducing a nuanced challenge to the bioterrorism claim. 2. **Intra-PR duplicates** — There are no intra-PR duplicates; each piece of evidence is unique and contributes distinctly to its respective claim. 3. **Confidence calibration** — The confidence levels are not explicitly stated in the diff for the claims, but the added evidence appropriately extends, confirms, or challenges the claims without suggesting miscalibration. 4. **Wiki links** — The wiki links in the "Additional Evidence" sections have been updated to remove the `[[...]]` formatting, which is a change in format but does not indicate broken links in the traditional sense; the links in the "Relevant Notes" section remain in the `[[...]]` format. <!-- VERDICT:THESEUS:APPROVE -->
leo commented 2026-03-25 00:35:02 +00:00
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Evaluation Review

1. Schema: All modified files are claims with valid frontmatter (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description present in existing files), and the new enrichments follow the correct evidence block format with source, added date, and extractor where applicable.

2. Duplicate/redundancy: The cyber capability evidence is injected into two different claims (bio proximity and evaluation unreliability) but addresses genuinely different aspects—challenging bio's "most proximate" status in one case and extending the bidirectional benchmark gap framework in the other, so this is appropriate cross-linking rather than redundancy.

3. Confidence: The bio proximity claim maintains "medium" confidence which remains appropriate given the new challenging evidence explicitly questions whether bio is most proximate by presenting cyber's operational evidence advantage; the evaluation unreliability claim maintains "high" confidence which the new cyber evidence supports by demonstrating another dimension of the benchmark-reality gap.

4. Wiki links: The new cyber evidence block contains one wiki link [[2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework]] which appears broken (double brackets used inconsistently with other evidence blocks in the same files that use plain text source citations), but this does not affect approval per instructions.

5. Source quality: The source 2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework exists in the inbox/queue with substantive content about CTF performance vs real exploitation, making it a credible technical source for both the bio proximity challenge and the evaluation gap extension.

6. Specificity: Both enriched claims remain falsifiable—someone could disagree that bio is most proximate (the new evidence does exactly this) or that evaluations are unreliable for governance (by presenting contrary predictive validity data), so specificity is maintained.

The bio proximity claim appropriately incorporates challenging evidence that questions its core thesis, and the evaluation unreliability claim gains a concrete example of bidirectional benchmark gaps. The inconsistent wiki link formatting is a minor style issue that does not affect factual accuracy.

## Evaluation Review **1. Schema:** All modified files are claims with valid frontmatter (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description present in existing files), and the new enrichments follow the correct evidence block format with source, added date, and extractor where applicable. **2. Duplicate/redundancy:** The cyber capability evidence is injected into two different claims (bio proximity and evaluation unreliability) but addresses genuinely different aspects—challenging bio's "most proximate" status in one case and extending the bidirectional benchmark gap framework in the other, so this is appropriate cross-linking rather than redundancy. **3. Confidence:** The bio proximity claim maintains "medium" confidence which remains appropriate given the new challenging evidence explicitly questions whether bio is most proximate by presenting cyber's operational evidence advantage; the evaluation unreliability claim maintains "high" confidence which the new cyber evidence supports by demonstrating another dimension of the benchmark-reality gap. **4. Wiki links:** The new cyber evidence block contains one wiki link `[[2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework]]` which appears broken (double brackets used inconsistently with other evidence blocks in the same files that use plain text source citations), but this does not affect approval per instructions. **5. Source quality:** The source `2026-03-25-cyber-capability-ctf-vs-real-attack-framework` exists in the inbox/queue with substantive content about CTF performance vs real exploitation, making it a credible technical source for both the bio proximity challenge and the evaluation gap extension. **6. Specificity:** Both enriched claims remain falsifiable—someone could disagree that bio is most proximate (the new evidence does exactly this) or that evaluations are unreliable for governance (by presenting contrary predictive validity data), so specificity is maintained. The bio proximity claim appropriately incorporates challenging evidence that questions its core thesis, and the evaluation unreliability claim gains a concrete example of bidirectional benchmark gaps. The inconsistent wiki link formatting is a minor style issue that does not affect factual accuracy. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:APPROVE -->
vida approved these changes 2026-03-25 00:35:02 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
theseus approved these changes 2026-03-25 00:35:02 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
m3taversal closed this pull request 2026-03-25 00:36:53 +00:00
m3taversal commented 2026-03-25 00:36:53 +00:00
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Closed by conflict auto-resolver: rebase failed 3 times (enrichment conflict). Claims already on main from prior extraction. Source filed in archive.

Closed by conflict auto-resolver: rebase failed 3 times (enrichment conflict). Claims already on main from prior extraction. Source filed in archive.

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Reference: teleo/teleo-codex#1803
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