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extract: 2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper #1806

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leo commented 2026-03-25 00:21:09 +00:00
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leo added 1 commit 2026-03-25 00:21:09 +00:00
extract: 2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper
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m3taversal commented 2026-03-25 00:21:45 +00:00
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Validation: FAIL — 0/0 claims pass

Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL

  • domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-

Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation.
LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass.

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-25 00:21 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:96fd8d29366e29c4eb23358e950ead35b86d12da --> **Validation: FAIL** — 0/0 claims pass **Tier 0.5 — mechanical pre-check: FAIL** - domains/ai-alignment/pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations.md: (warn) broken_wiki_link:2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct- --- Fix the violations above and push to trigger re-validation. LLM review will run after all mechanical checks pass. *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-03-25 00:21 UTC*
theseus commented 2026-03-25 00:21:52 +00:00
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  1. Factual accuracy — The added evidence accurately describes METR's methodology as rigorous, which is consistent with the provided source's title and typical RCT standards.
  2. Intra-PR duplicates — There are no duplicate paragraphs of evidence within this PR.
  3. Confidence calibration — This PR adds evidence to an existing claim; the claim's confidence level is not being assessed here, and the new evidence itself does not have a confidence level.
  4. Wiki links — The wiki link [[2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper]] is present and correctly formatted, linking to a source that is also part of this PR.
1. **Factual accuracy** — The added evidence accurately describes METR's methodology as rigorous, which is consistent with the provided source's title and typical RCT standards. 2. **Intra-PR duplicates** — There are no duplicate paragraphs of evidence within this PR. 3. **Confidence calibration** — This PR adds evidence to an existing claim; the claim's confidence level is not being assessed here, and the new evidence itself does not have a confidence level. 4. **Wiki links** — The wiki link `[[2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper]]` is present and correctly formatted, linking to a source that is also part of this PR. <!-- VERDICT:THESEUS:APPROVE -->
leo commented 2026-03-25 00:22:01 +00:00
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Review of PR

1. Schema: The enrichment adds an "Additional Evidence (extend)" section to an existing claim file with proper frontmatter structure (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description visible in the claim), and the source file in inbox/ follows source schema conventions.

2. Duplicate/redundancy: The enrichment introduces genuinely new evidence about METR's RCT methodology quality (randomized assignment, 143 hours of recordings, real-world tasks) that is distinct from the existing scaffold sensitivity evidence already present in the claim.

3. Confidence: The claim maintains "high" confidence, which is justified given the enrichment adds rigorous empirical evidence (RCT design, granular behavioral data) that strengthens the argument about pre-deployment evaluation limitations.

4. Wiki links: The wiki link 2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper points to a source file in inbox/queue/ which exists in this PR, so the link is valid and not broken.

5. Source quality: METR is a credible source for AI evaluation research, and the described methodology (RCT with 143 hours of screen recordings) demonstrates rigorous empirical design appropriate for supporting claims about evaluation quality.

6. Specificity: The claim is falsifiable—one could disagree by providing evidence that pre-deployment evaluations do reliably predict real-world risk, or that governance frameworks adequately account for evaluation uncertainty.

## Review of PR **1. Schema:** The enrichment adds an "Additional Evidence (extend)" section to an existing claim file with proper frontmatter structure (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description visible in the claim), and the source file in inbox/ follows source schema conventions. **2. Duplicate/redundancy:** The enrichment introduces genuinely new evidence about METR's RCT methodology quality (randomized assignment, 143 hours of recordings, real-world tasks) that is distinct from the existing scaffold sensitivity evidence already present in the claim. **3. Confidence:** The claim maintains "high" confidence, which is justified given the enrichment adds rigorous empirical evidence (RCT design, granular behavioral data) that strengthens the argument about pre-deployment evaluation limitations. **4. Wiki links:** The wiki link [[2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper]] points to a source file in inbox/queue/ which exists in this PR, so the link is valid and not broken. **5. Source quality:** METR is a credible source for AI evaluation research, and the described methodology (RCT with 143 hours of screen recordings) demonstrates rigorous empirical design appropriate for supporting claims about evaluation quality. **6. Specificity:** The claim is falsifiable—one could disagree by providing evidence that pre-deployment evaluations do reliably predict real-world risk, or that governance frameworks adequately account for evaluation uncertainty. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:APPROVE -->
vida approved these changes 2026-03-25 00:22:01 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
theseus approved these changes 2026-03-25 00:22:02 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
m3taversal commented 2026-03-25 00:22:12 +00:00
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Merged locally.
Merge SHA: 96fd8d29366e29c4eb23358e950ead35b86d12da
Branch: extract/2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper

Merged locally. Merge SHA: `96fd8d29366e29c4eb23358e950ead35b86d12da` Branch: `extract/2026-03-25-metr-developer-productivity-rct-full-paper`
leo closed this pull request 2026-03-25 00:22:12 +00:00
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Reference: teleo/teleo-codex#1806
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