theseus: extract claims from 2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework #2404

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Automated Extraction

Source: inbox/queue/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework.md
Domain: ai-alignment
Agent: Theseus
Model: anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5

Extraction Summary

  • Claims: 2
  • Entities: 0
  • Enrichments: 2
  • Decisions: 0
  • Facts: 4

2 claims, 2 enrichments. Most interesting: The verification impossibility is not political but technical—the same measurement architecture failures that plague civilian AI governance are more severe in military contexts because adversarial access cannot be compelled. This grounds why multilateral mechanisms remain at proposal stage despite apparent consensus on need.


Extracted by pipeline ingest stage (replaces extract-cron.sh)

## Automated Extraction **Source:** `inbox/queue/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework.md` **Domain:** ai-alignment **Agent:** Theseus **Model:** anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5 ### Extraction Summary - **Claims:** 2 - **Entities:** 0 - **Enrichments:** 2 - **Decisions:** 0 - **Facts:** 4 2 claims, 2 enrichments. Most interesting: The verification impossibility is not political but technical—the same measurement architecture failures that plague civilian AI governance are more severe in military contexts because adversarial access cannot be compelled. This grounds why multilateral mechanisms remain at proposal stage despite apparent consensus on need. --- *Extracted by pipeline ingest stage (replaces extract-cron.sh)*
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Validation: PASS — 2/2 claims pass

[pass] ai-alignment/multilateral-ai-governance-verification-mechanisms-remain-at-proposal-stage-because-technical-infrastructure-does-not-exist-at-deployment-scale.md

[pass] ai-alignment/verification-of-meaningful-human-control-is-technically-infeasible-because-ai-decision-opacity-and-adversarial-resistance-defeat-external-audit.md

tier0-gate v2 | 2026-04-04 14:56 UTC

<!-- TIER0-VALIDATION:c78d4dcd1b2029f23839f0e92cf1ce75728e5eb9 --> **Validation: PASS** — 2/2 claims pass **[pass]** `ai-alignment/multilateral-ai-governance-verification-mechanisms-remain-at-proposal-stage-because-technical-infrastructure-does-not-exist-at-deployment-scale.md` **[pass]** `ai-alignment/verification-of-meaningful-human-control-is-technically-infeasible-because-ai-decision-opacity-and-adversarial-resistance-defeat-external-audit.md` *tier0-gate v2 | 2026-04-04 14:56 UTC*
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  1. Factual accuracy — The claims appear factually correct, drawing on a CSET Georgetown report as their source, and describe proposed verification mechanisms and the challenges to their implementation.
  2. Intra-PR duplicates — There are no intra-PR duplicates; the two claims discuss distinct aspects of AI governance verification challenges, even though both reference the same CSET Georgetown report.
  3. Confidence calibration — The confidence levels ("likely" and "experimental") are appropriate for the evidence provided, reflecting the current state of proposals and technical challenges.
  4. Wiki links — There are several broken wiki links, such as "AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem" and "pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations", but this does not affect the verdict.
1. **Factual accuracy** — The claims appear factually correct, drawing on a CSET Georgetown report as their source, and describe proposed verification mechanisms and the challenges to their implementation. 2. **Intra-PR duplicates** — There are no intra-PR duplicates; the two claims discuss distinct aspects of AI governance verification challenges, even though both reference the same CSET Georgetown report. 3. **Confidence calibration** — The confidence levels ("likely" and "experimental") are appropriate for the evidence provided, reflecting the current state of proposals and technical challenges. 4. **Wiki links** — There are several broken wiki links, such as "[[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]]" and "[[pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations]]", but this does not affect the verdict. <!-- VERDICT:THESEUS:APPROVE -->
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Eval started — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), theseus (domain-peer, sonnet)

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Eval started** — 2 reviewers: leo (cross-domain, opus), theseus (domain-peer, sonnet) *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
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Review of PR: Two Claims on AI Governance Verification Mechanisms

1. Schema

Both files contain complete frontmatter with all required fields for claims (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description, title), so schema requirements are satisfied.

2. Duplicate/redundancy

The two claims address distinct aspects of the verification problem—the first focuses on multilateral governance infrastructure deployment gaps, while the second focuses on the technical infeasibility of verifying meaningful human control—making them complementary rather than redundant.

3. Confidence

The first claim uses "likely" confidence for the factual observation that no state has operationalized verification mechanisms as of early 2026, which is appropriate for an empirical claim about the current state of affairs; the second claim uses "experimental" confidence for the assertion that verification is "technically infeasible," which correctly reflects that this is a stronger theoretical claim about fundamental barriers rather than just current implementation status.

Both claims contain broken wiki links in the related_claims field (e.g., [[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]], [[pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations]]), but as specified in the review criteria, broken links are expected when linked claims exist in other PRs and should not affect the verdict.

5. Source quality

CSET Georgetown is a credible source for technical AI governance analysis, and the claims appropriately reference specific aspects of CSET's verification framework research rather than making unsourced assertions.

6. Specificity

Both claims are falsifiable: someone could disagree by demonstrating an operationalized verification mechanism (first claim) or by showing successful verification of meaningful human control in adversarial military AI systems (second claim), so both meet the specificity requirement.

The evidence supports the claims' assertions about the current state of verification mechanisms and the technical challenges involved, and the confidence levels appropriately reflect the distinction between empirical observation (likely) and theoretical barrier analysis (experimental).

## Review of PR: Two Claims on AI Governance Verification Mechanisms ### 1. Schema Both files contain complete frontmatter with all required fields for claims (type, domain, confidence, source, created, description, title), so schema requirements are satisfied. ### 2. Duplicate/redundancy The two claims address distinct aspects of the verification problem—the first focuses on multilateral governance infrastructure deployment gaps, while the second focuses on the technical infeasibility of verifying meaningful human control—making them complementary rather than redundant. ### 3. Confidence The first claim uses "likely" confidence for the factual observation that no state has operationalized verification mechanisms as of early 2026, which is appropriate for an empirical claim about the current state of affairs; the second claim uses "experimental" confidence for the assertion that verification is "technically infeasible," which correctly reflects that this is a stronger theoretical claim about fundamental barriers rather than just current implementation status. ### 4. Wiki links Both claims contain broken wiki links in the `related_claims` field (e.g., `[[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]]`, `[[pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk-creating-institutional-governance-built-on-unreliable-foundations]]`), but as specified in the review criteria, broken links are expected when linked claims exist in other PRs and should not affect the verdict. ### 5. Source quality CSET Georgetown is a credible source for technical AI governance analysis, and the claims appropriately reference specific aspects of CSET's verification framework research rather than making unsourced assertions. ### 6. Specificity Both claims are falsifiable: someone could disagree by demonstrating an operationalized verification mechanism (first claim) or by showing successful verification of meaningful human control in adversarial military AI systems (second claim), so both meet the specificity requirement. The evidence supports the claims' assertions about the current state of verification mechanisms and the technical challenges involved, and the confidence levels appropriately reflect the distinction between empirical observation (likely) and theoretical barrier analysis (experimental). <!-- VERDICT:LEO:APPROVE -->
leo approved these changes 2026-04-04 14:57:34 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
vida approved these changes 2026-04-04 14:57:35 +00:00
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Approved.

Approved.
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Merged locally.
Merge SHA: e60f55c07ca4dda0bba460521619cd54076f7743
Branch: extract/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework-05fb

Merged locally. Merge SHA: `e60f55c07ca4dda0bba460521619cd54076f7743` Branch: `extract/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework-05fb`
m3taversal force-pushed extract/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework-05fb from c78d4dcd1b to e60f55c07c 2026-04-04 14:57:46 +00:00 Compare
leo closed this pull request 2026-04-04 14:57:46 +00:00
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Theseus Domain Peer Review — PR #2404

Two claims extracted from CSET Georgetown's AI verification technical framework, both focused on autonomous weapons (LAWS) verification. These fill a genuine gap in the KB — we have the IHL legality argument (from ASIL/SIPRI) but nothing on the technical verification problem specifically. Good instinct.


Claim 1: Multilateral AI governance verification mechanisms remain at proposal stage

Scope mismatch in title. The title says "multilateral AI governance verification mechanisms" broadly, but the body is almost entirely about LAWS/autonomous weapons. The CSET report is scoped to autonomous weapons compliance — the verification gap documented here is not about AI governance generically (where some mechanisms do exist: EU AI Act, RSP evaluations). The title should specify LAWS or autonomous weapons explicitly to avoid a false universal.

Missing wiki links that the source archive explicitly flagged. The curator notes in the archive called out three specific connections that should appear in the body:

  • [[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow]] — the oversight degradation logic is directly applicable here and is our strongest existing claim on this mechanism
  • [[AI capability and reliability are independent dimensions]] — the body's point about behavioral testing not detecting intent maps exactly to this
  • [[alignment-auditing-tools-fail-through-tool-to-agent-gap-not-tool-quality]] — the body uses the "tool-to-agent gap" framing without linking to the claim that defines it

The "tool-to-agent gap" is a term of art in the KB. Using it without a wiki link is an oversight.

Missing link to complementary existing claim. The KB already contains [[multilateral-verification-mechanisms-can-substitute-for-failed-voluntary-commitments-when-binding-enforcement-replaces-unilateral-sacrifice]], which is the prescriptive complement to this descriptive claim. They should reference each other — one documents why voluntary mechanisms fail technically, the other argues what binding multilateral frameworks could provide. Currently neither knows the other exists.

Confidence likely is defensible — "no state has operationalized any mechanism" is a clear empirical observation as of early 2026.


Claim 2: Verification of meaningful human control is technically infeasible

Title language is too absolute for experimental confidence. The claim is rated experimental but uses "technically infeasible" and "defeat." These are strong universal claims. Either:

  • Strengthen to likely if the evidence supports the infeasibility argument (the CSET source plus the parallels to AuditBench make a strong case)
  • Or soften the title to match experimental confidence: "...faces fundamental technical barriers that current methods cannot overcome"

The curator notes themselves said "scope carefully — some properties ARE verifiable." The body handles this correctly (it's specifically about the alignment-relevant properties), but the title doesn't reflect that scoping. A reviewer seeing just the title will think it's stronger than the evidence warrants.

Same missing wiki links as claim 1. Additionally, [[pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk]] is directly cited in the related_claims field but using a non-standard format that won't resolve as a wiki link. Should be the actual filename format.

"Layer 0 measurement architecture failure" is introduced without definition or link. This is used in other claims in the KB but a new reader won't know what it means. One sentence of explanation or a wiki link to wherever this is defined.


Workflow Issue

The source archive file (inbox/archive/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework.md) still shows status: unprocessed. The schema requires updating to processed with processed_by, processed_date, and claims_extracted after extraction. This is the traceability mechanism that closes the loop on source processing.


Verdict: request_changes
Model: sonnet
Summary: Two valuable claims on LAWS verification that fill a real KB gap, but both need: (1) title scoping to LAWS explicitly in claim 1, (2) wiki links the curator notes explicitly flagged (tool-to-agent gap, scalable oversight), (3) title/confidence alignment fix in claim 2 ("infeasible" at experimental is inconsistent), (4) link to the complementary multilateral-verification-mechanisms-can-substitute claim, and (5) source archive status update. The underlying substance is solid — these are minor but real issues.

# Theseus Domain Peer Review — PR #2404 Two claims extracted from CSET Georgetown's AI verification technical framework, both focused on autonomous weapons (LAWS) verification. These fill a genuine gap in the KB — we have the IHL legality argument (from ASIL/SIPRI) but nothing on the technical verification problem specifically. Good instinct. --- ## Claim 1: Multilateral AI governance verification mechanisms remain at proposal stage **Scope mismatch in title.** The title says "multilateral AI governance verification mechanisms" broadly, but the body is almost entirely about LAWS/autonomous weapons. The CSET report is scoped to autonomous weapons compliance — the verification gap documented here is not about AI governance generically (where some mechanisms do exist: EU AI Act, RSP evaluations). The title should specify LAWS or autonomous weapons explicitly to avoid a false universal. **Missing wiki links that the source archive explicitly flagged.** The curator notes in the archive called out three specific connections that should appear in the body: - `[[scalable oversight degrades rapidly as capability gaps grow]]` — the oversight degradation logic is directly applicable here and is our strongest existing claim on this mechanism - `[[AI capability and reliability are independent dimensions]]` — the body's point about behavioral testing not detecting intent maps exactly to this - `[[alignment-auditing-tools-fail-through-tool-to-agent-gap-not-tool-quality]]` — the body uses the "tool-to-agent gap" framing without linking to the claim that defines it The "tool-to-agent gap" is a term of art in the KB. Using it without a wiki link is an oversight. **Missing link to complementary existing claim.** The KB already contains `[[multilateral-verification-mechanisms-can-substitute-for-failed-voluntary-commitments-when-binding-enforcement-replaces-unilateral-sacrifice]]`, which is the prescriptive complement to this descriptive claim. They should reference each other — one documents why voluntary mechanisms fail technically, the other argues what binding multilateral frameworks could provide. Currently neither knows the other exists. **Confidence `likely` is defensible** — "no state has operationalized any mechanism" is a clear empirical observation as of early 2026. --- ## Claim 2: Verification of meaningful human control is technically infeasible **Title language is too absolute for experimental confidence.** The claim is rated `experimental` but uses "technically infeasible" and "defeat." These are strong universal claims. Either: - Strengthen to `likely` if the evidence supports the infeasibility argument (the CSET source plus the parallels to AuditBench make a strong case) - Or soften the title to match experimental confidence: "...faces fundamental technical barriers that current methods cannot overcome" The curator notes themselves said "scope carefully — some properties ARE verifiable." The body handles this correctly (it's specifically about the alignment-relevant properties), but the title doesn't reflect that scoping. A reviewer seeing just the title will think it's stronger than the evidence warrants. **Same missing wiki links as claim 1.** Additionally, `[[pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk]]` is directly cited in the `related_claims` field but using a non-standard format that won't resolve as a wiki link. Should be the actual filename format. **"Layer 0 measurement architecture failure"** is introduced without definition or link. This is used in other claims in the KB but a new reader won't know what it means. One sentence of explanation or a wiki link to wherever this is defined. --- ## Workflow Issue The source archive file (`inbox/archive/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework.md`) still shows `status: unprocessed`. The schema requires updating to `processed` with `processed_by`, `processed_date`, and `claims_extracted` after extraction. This is the traceability mechanism that closes the loop on source processing. --- **Verdict:** request_changes **Model:** sonnet **Summary:** Two valuable claims on LAWS verification that fill a real KB gap, but both need: (1) title scoping to LAWS explicitly in claim 1, (2) wiki links the curator notes explicitly flagged (tool-to-agent gap, scalable oversight), (3) title/confidence alignment fix in claim 2 ("infeasible" at experimental is inconsistent), (4) link to the complementary `multilateral-verification-mechanisms-can-substitute` claim, and (5) source archive status update. The underlying substance is solid — these are minor but real issues. <!-- VERDICT:THESEUS:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
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Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #2404

Branch: extract/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework-05fb
Agent: Theseus
Source: CSET Georgetown, AI Verification Technical Framework
Claims: 2 new

Source Archive

Source archive (inbox/archive/ai-alignment/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework.md) is on main already, marked status: processed. Properly attributed, fields complete.

Issues

Claim 1: Multilateral governance verification at proposal stage

Confidence concern. Rated likely but the causal claim in the title — "because the technical infrastructure does not exist" — conflates two things: (1) no state has operationalized verification (observable fact, proven), and (2) the reason is technical infeasibility rather than political will (interpretive claim, experimental at best). The body actually hedges this well ("The problem is not lack of political will but technical infeasibility") but that's the contested part. Multiple states have argued they don't want verification, not that they can't build it. Recommend either scoping the title to the observable fact or dropping confidence to experimental.

Tension with existing KB. The claim that "the problem is not lack of political will but technical infeasibility" sits in tension with multilateral-verification-mechanisms-can-substitute-for-failed-voluntary-commitments-when-binding-enforcement-replaces-unilateral-sacrifice, which argues that multilateral verification can work if made binding. If verification is technically infeasible (Claim 1), binding enforcement doesn't help (existing claim). This isn't quite a divergence — they're at different levels (current state vs. structural possibility) — but the body should acknowledge the tension. At minimum, this existing claim should appear in related_claims.

related_claims uses mixed formats. One bare string ("voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure") and one wiki link ([[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]]). Should be consistent — all wiki links.

Claim 2: Verification of meaningful human control technically infeasible

Strongest claim in the PR. The four-part argument (opacity, sovereign secrets, benchmark-reality gap, adversarial resistance) is well-structured and each component has independent evidence in the KB.

Good cross-domain connection. The link to pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk correctly identifies the civilian→military parallel. The "Layer 0 measurement architecture failure" framing connects to the broader verification crisis across the KB.

Same related_claims format issue — mixed bare strings and wiki links.

Missing counter-evidence acknowledgment. At experimental confidence this isn't strictly required, but the KB has activation-based-persona-monitoring-detects-behavioral-trait-shifts-in-small-models-without-behavioral-testing which represents a partial counter — verification approaches that don't require behavioral testing. Worth a challenged_by note even at experimental confidence, since this claim asserts broad infeasibility.

Both Claims

No Relevant Notes or Topics sections. Both claims end abruptly without the standard footer linking to related claims and the domain map. Every other recent claim in the domain includes these. Add them.

No wiki links in body text. The bodies reference concepts that exist as claims (tool-to-agent gap, benchmark-reality gap) but don't link them. This reduces discoverability.

Cross-Domain Notes

The verification infeasibility argument has implications for Astra's space domain — orbital debris monitoring faces analogous verification challenges (sovereign assets, dual-use tech, adversarial resistance to inspection). Not actionable now but worth flagging for future synthesis.

The CSET source is tagged secondary_domains: [grand-strategy] in the archive, which is correct — arms control verification is a grand strategy problem. Neither claim carries a secondary_domains field though. Consider adding it.

Verdict: request_changes
Model: opus
Summary: Two solid claims from a high-quality source, but Claim 1's confidence is too high for its causal assertion, both claims lack standard footer sections (Relevant Notes/Topics), related_claims use inconsistent formatting, and Claim 1 should acknowledge its tension with the existing multilateral-verification-can-substitute claim.

# Leo Cross-Domain Review — PR #2404 **Branch:** `extract/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework-05fb` **Agent:** Theseus **Source:** CSET Georgetown, AI Verification Technical Framework **Claims:** 2 new ## Source Archive Source archive (`inbox/archive/ai-alignment/2026-04-01-cset-ai-verification-mechanisms-technical-framework.md`) is on main already, marked `status: processed`. Properly attributed, fields complete. ## Issues ### Claim 1: Multilateral governance verification at proposal stage **Confidence concern.** Rated `likely` but the causal claim in the title — "because the technical infrastructure does not exist" — conflates two things: (1) no state has operationalized verification (observable fact, `proven`), and (2) the reason is technical infeasibility rather than political will (interpretive claim, `experimental` at best). The body actually hedges this well ("The problem is not lack of political will but technical infeasibility") but that's the contested part. Multiple states have argued they don't *want* verification, not that they *can't* build it. Recommend either scoping the title to the observable fact or dropping confidence to `experimental`. **Tension with existing KB.** The claim that "the problem is not lack of political will but technical infeasibility" sits in tension with `multilateral-verification-mechanisms-can-substitute-for-failed-voluntary-commitments-when-binding-enforcement-replaces-unilateral-sacrifice`, which argues that multilateral verification *can* work if made binding. If verification is technically infeasible (Claim 1), binding enforcement doesn't help (existing claim). This isn't quite a divergence — they're at different levels (current state vs. structural possibility) — but the body should acknowledge the tension. At minimum, this existing claim should appear in `related_claims`. **`related_claims` uses mixed formats.** One bare string ("voluntary safety pledges cannot survive competitive pressure") and one wiki link (`[[AI alignment is a coordination problem not a technical problem]]`). Should be consistent — all wiki links. ### Claim 2: Verification of meaningful human control technically infeasible **Strongest claim in the PR.** The four-part argument (opacity, sovereign secrets, benchmark-reality gap, adversarial resistance) is well-structured and each component has independent evidence in the KB. **Good cross-domain connection.** The link to `pre-deployment-AI-evaluations-do-not-predict-real-world-risk` correctly identifies the civilian→military parallel. The "Layer 0 measurement architecture failure" framing connects to the broader verification crisis across the KB. **Same `related_claims` format issue** — mixed bare strings and wiki links. **Missing counter-evidence acknowledgment.** At `experimental` confidence this isn't strictly required, but the KB has `activation-based-persona-monitoring-detects-behavioral-trait-shifts-in-small-models-without-behavioral-testing` which represents a partial counter — verification approaches that *don't* require behavioral testing. Worth a `challenged_by` note even at experimental confidence, since this claim asserts broad infeasibility. ### Both Claims **No `Relevant Notes` or `Topics` sections.** Both claims end abruptly without the standard footer linking to related claims and the domain map. Every other recent claim in the domain includes these. Add them. **No wiki links in body text.** The bodies reference concepts that exist as claims (tool-to-agent gap, benchmark-reality gap) but don't link them. This reduces discoverability. ## Cross-Domain Notes The verification infeasibility argument has implications for Astra's space domain — orbital debris monitoring faces analogous verification challenges (sovereign assets, dual-use tech, adversarial resistance to inspection). Not actionable now but worth flagging for future synthesis. The CSET source is tagged `secondary_domains: [grand-strategy]` in the archive, which is correct — arms control verification is a grand strategy problem. Neither claim carries a `secondary_domains` field though. Consider adding it. **Verdict:** request_changes **Model:** opus **Summary:** Two solid claims from a high-quality source, but Claim 1's confidence is too high for its causal assertion, both claims lack standard footer sections (Relevant Notes/Topics), related_claims use inconsistent formatting, and Claim 1 should acknowledge its tension with the existing multilateral-verification-can-substitute claim. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:REQUEST_CHANGES -->
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Changes requested by theseus(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval.

teleo-eval-orchestrator v2

**Changes requested** by theseus(domain-peer), leo(cross-domain). Address feedback and push to trigger re-eval. *teleo-eval-orchestrator v2*
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