extract: 2021-02-00-mckinsey-facility-to-home-265-billion-shift #946

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@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ None identified. This is a descriptive claim about measured workforce conditions
AARP 2025 data confirms: 92% of nursing homes report significant/severe shortages, ~70% of assisted living facilities report similar shortages, all 50 states face home care worker shortages, and 43 states have seen HCBS provider closures due to worker shortages. Median paid caregiver wage is only $15.43/hour, yet facilities still cannot attract workers.
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2021-02-00-mckinsey-facility-to-home-265-billion-shift]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
The facility-to-home shift is partially supply-constrained by workforce crisis. 94% of Medicare beneficiaries prefer home-based post-acute care, and 16% of 65+ respondents more likely to receive home health post-pandemic, but workforce shortages limit capacity to meet demand. Technology stack (RPM + AI middleware) becomes essential to enable home care delivery without proportional workforce scaling.
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Relevant Notes:

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@ -28,6 +28,12 @@ The services ready to shift include primary care, outpatient specialist consults
This facility-to-home migration is the physical infrastructure layer of [[the healthcare attractor state is a prevention-first system where aligned payment continuous monitoring and AI-augmented care delivery create a flywheel that profits from health rather than sickness]]. If value-based care provides the payment alignment and continuous monitoring provides the data layer, the home is where these capabilities converge into actual care delivery. The 3-4x scaling requirement ($65B → $265B) matches the magnitude of the VBC payment transition tracked in [[value-based care transitions stall at the payment boundary because 60 percent of payments touch value metrics but only 14 percent bear full risk]].
### Additional Evidence (extend)
*Source: [[2021-02-00-mckinsey-facility-to-home-265-billion-shift]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
McKinsey identifies the specific enabling technology stack: RPM market growing from $29B to $138B (2024-2033) at 19% CAGR, with AI in RPM growing $2B to $8.4B (2024-2030) at 27.5% CAGR. Home healthcare is the fastest-growing RPM end-use segment at 25.3% CAGR. 71M Americans expected to use RPM by 2025. This quantifies the infrastructure buildout required for the facility-to-home transition.
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@ -27,6 +27,12 @@ This claim connects the technology layer ([[continuous health monitoring is conv
The atoms-to-bits conversion happens at the patient's home ([[healthcares defensible layer is where atoms become bits because physical-to-digital conversion generates the data that powers AI care while building patient trust that software alone cannot create]]), and the AI layer makes that data clinically useful ([[AI middleware bridges consumer wearable data to clinical utility because continuous data is too voluminous for direct clinician review]]).
### Additional Evidence (confirm)
*Source: [[2021-02-00-mckinsey-facility-to-home-265-billion-shift]] | Added: 2026-03-16*
McKinsey confirms the technology stack architecture: remote patient monitoring generates continuous data streams, AI middleware processes them into clinical utility, enabling home-based delivery of services previously requiring facility infrastructure. Johns Hopkins hospital-at-home shows 19-30% cost savings, heart failure home care shows 52% lower costs, demonstrating economic viability when technology stack is in place.
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Relevant Notes:

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@ -7,9 +7,13 @@ date: 2021-02-01
domain: health
secondary_domains: []
format: report
status: unprocessed
status: enrichment
priority: medium
tags: [home-health, hospital-at-home, care-delivery, facility-shift, mckinsey, senior-care]
processed_by: vida
processed_date: 2026-03-16
enrichments_applied: ["home-based-care-could-capture-265-billion-in-medicare-spending-by-2025-through-hospital-at-home-remote-monitoring-and-post-acute-shift.md", "rpm-technology-stack-enables-facility-to-home-care-migration-through-ai-middleware-that-converts-continuous-data-into-clinical-utility.md", "caregiver-workforce-crisis-shows-all-50-states-experiencing-shortages-with-43-states-reporting-facility-closures-signaling-care-infrastructure-collapse.md"]
extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
---
## Content
@ -54,3 +58,16 @@ tags: [home-health, hospital-at-home, care-delivery, facility-shift, mckinsey, s
PRIMARY CONNECTION: [[continuous health monitoring is converging on a multi-layer sensor stack of ambient wearables periodic patches and environmental sensors processed through AI middleware]]
WHY ARCHIVED: Connects the care delivery transition to the technology layer the KB already describes. Grounds the atoms-to-bits thesis in senior care economics.
EXTRACTION HINT: The technology-enabling-care-site-shift narrative is more extractable than the dollar figure alone.
## Key Facts
- Up to $265 billion in Medicare care services could shift from facilities to home by 2025 (25% of total Medicare cost of care)
- Represents 3-4x increase in cost of care delivered at home vs. current baseline (~$65B current to $265B projected)
- Johns Hopkins hospital-at-home: 19-30% savings vs. in-hospital care
- Home care for heart failure patients: 52% lower costs
- 16% of 65+ respondents more likely to receive home health post-pandemic (McKinsey Consumer Health Insights, June 2021)
- 94% of Medicare beneficiaries prefer home-based post-acute care
- Remote patient monitoring market: $29B → $138B (2024-2033), 19% CAGR
- AI in RPM: $2B → $8.4B (2024-2030), 27.5% CAGR
- Home healthcare: fastest-growing RPM end-use segment (25.3% CAGR)
- 71M Americans expected to use RPM by 2025