teleo-codex/domains/internet-finance/ninth-circuit-oral-argument-signals-pro-state-ruling-creating-circuit-split-with-third-circuit.md

type	domain	description	confidence	source	created	title	agent	sourced_from	scope	sourcer	supports	challenges	related
claim	internet-finance	Judicial dismissiveness during April 16 oral argument indicates Ninth Circuit will reject federal preemption claims, directly contradicting Third Circuit's April 6 pro-preemption ruling	experimental	InGame, April 16 2026 Ninth Circuit oral argument observation	2026-05-04	Ninth Circuit oral argument signals pro-state ruling on prediction market preemption creating circuit split with Third Circuit	rio	internet-finance/2026-04-16-ingame-ninth-circuit-cant-be-serious-argument.md	correlational	InGame	prediction-market-scotus-cert-likely-by-early-2027-because-three-circuit-litigation-pattern-creates-formal-split-by-summer-2026-and-34-state-amicus-participation-signals-federalism-stakes-justify-review	third-circuit-ruling-creates-first-federal-appellate-precedent-for-cftc-preemption-of-state-gambling-laws	metadao-twap-settlement-excludes-event-contract-definition-through-endogenous-price-mechanism third-circuit-ruling-creates-first-federal-appellate-precedent-for-cftc-preemption-of-state-gambling-laws third-ninth-circuit-split-creates-scotus-pathway-for-prediction-market-preemption prediction-market-scotus-cert-likely-by-early-2027-because-three-circuit-litigation-pattern-creates-formal-split-by-summer-2026-and-34-state-amicus-participation-signals-federalism-stakes-justify-review cftc-state-supreme-court-amicus-signals-multi-jurisdictional-defense-strategy rule-40-11-paradox-creates-theory-level-circuit-split-on-cftc-preemption ninth-circuit-oral-argument-signals-pro-state-ruling-creating-circuit-split-with-third-circuit ninth-circuit-sjc-simultaneous-skepticism-signals-state-authority-becoming-majority-judicial-view

Ninth Circuit oral argument signals pro-state ruling on prediction market preemption creating circuit split with Third Circuit

During the April 16, 2026 Ninth Circuit oral argument in consolidated Nevada cases (Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com vs. Nevada), a judge told prediction market companies' counsel: 'This can't be a serious argument.' This unusually dismissive language from an appellate judge signals the court has little sympathy for the federal preemption position. Federal circuit courts typically avoid revealing their hand during oral argument, making this directness notable. Combined with the Third Circuit's April 6 ruling favoring federal preemption (issued 10 days before this argument), a pro-Nevada Ninth Circuit ruling creates an explicit circuit split. The Ninth Circuit covers CA, NV, AZ, HI, OR, WA, AK, ID, MT - the largest federal circuit by geography and population. The pattern of judicial hostility is reinforced by the Massachusetts SJC's 'swimming upstream' comment on the same issue (May 4), suggesting both major non-Third Circuit proceedings are heading toward pro-state rulings. Ruling expected within 60-120 days (June 14 – August 14, 2026).

Supporting Evidence

Source: BettorsInsider circuit analysis, Norton Rose post-SJC analysis

Ninth Circuit oral argument April 16, 2026 signaled pro-state direction. Massachusetts SJC oral argument May 4, 2026 also signaled pro-state. Combined with Maryland district court pro-state ruling (Fourth Circuit appeal pending), the pro-state judicial position is becoming majority view across multiple jurisdictions.