m3taversal
4595339734
- Kalshi: $263.5M 2025 revenue, $11B valuation, 5.1M MAU, state regulatory war - Polymarket: $7B+ Feb volume, ICE $2B investment, QCX acquisition for US re-entry - Ranger: ForaMarkets acquihire, Build-A-Bear hackathon, vault pivot details - Sector map: added Coinbase, Robinhood, FanDuel as new prediction market entrants - Network config: 35 accounts across 6 tiers with search terms Pentagon-Agent: Rio <CE7B8202-2877-4C70-8AAB-B05F832F50EA>
5.4 KiB
5.4 KiB
| type | entity_type | name | domain | handles | website | status | tracked_by | created | last_updated | founded | founders | category | stage | funding | key_metrics | competitors | built_on | tags | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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https://kalshi.com | active | rio | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2021-01-01 |
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Regulated prediction market exchange (CFTC-designated) | growth | Series E: $1B at $11B valuation (Dec 2025, led by Paradigm, Sequoia, a16z, ARK Invest). Seeking $20B in next round. |
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Kalshi
Overview
CFTC-designated contract market for event-based trading. USD-denominated, KYC-required, traditional brokerage integration. Won a landmark federal court case against CFTC to list election contracts. Regulation-first approach targeting institutional and mainstream users — the complement to Polymarket's crypto-native model.
Current State
- Volume: $6.7B (Jan 2026), Super Bowl alone exceeded $1B (2,700% YoY). Projecting $11.8B for March — potentially all-time record.
- Revenue: $263.5M fee revenue in 2025 (up 994% from $24M in 2024). 89% from sports. NFL Sep-Nov 2025 alone: $138M sports fee revenue.
- Users: 5.1M monthly active (8.5x growth from 600K at start of 2025). 3,500+ markets listed.
- Valuation: $11B (Series E, Dec 2025). Seeking $20B in next round.
- Regulatory: Full CFTC designation. Won Kalshi v. CFTC (D.C. Circuit). But facing state-level gambling enforcement: won in Tennessee, lost in Ohio and Massachusetts, Nevada case pending. Federal preemption question unresolved.
- Distribution: Robinhood prediction markets powered by Kalshi infrastructure. Interactive Brokers ForecastEx. Mobile-first UX.
- Market creation: Centrally listed — sports, politics, macro/economics, weather, culture, crypto price events.
Timeline
- 2021 — Founded. CFTC designation as contract market.
- 2023 — CFTC tried to block election contracts. Kalshi sued.
- 2024-09 — Won federal court case (D.C. Circuit) — CFTC cannot ban political event contracts
- 2024-10 — Robinhood launched prediction markets powered by Kalshi
- 2024-11 — Election trading alongside Polymarket. Combined volume $3.7B+
- 2025 — Growth surge: $263.5M fee revenue, 5.1M MAU, NFL drove sports dominance
- 2025-10/11 — $300M raise at ~$5B valuation
- 2025-12 — Series E: $1B at $11B valuation (Paradigm, Sequoia, a16z, ARK Invest)
- 2026-01 — CFTC Chairman Selig withdrew proposed ban on sports/political event contracts
- 2026-02 — Super Bowl exceeded $1B volume. CFTC filed amicus brief supporting federal preemption in NADEX v. Nevada
- 2026-03 — Combined Polymarket+Kalshi weekly record: $5.35B. Projecting $11.8B monthly.
Competitive Position
- Regulation-first + infrastructure play: Not just a consumer platform — Kalshi powers Robinhood's prediction markets, positioning as infrastructure layer for traditional brokerages.
- vs Polymarket: Duopoly forming. Kalshi = regulated/sports-dominant/USD. Polymarket = crypto-native/politics-dominant/USDC. Both grew massively post-election. Kalshi has 89% sports revenue; Polymarket dominates political/geopolitical markets.
- New competitors: Coinbase (acquired The Clearing Company Dec 2025), FanDuel Predicts (Flutter investing $200-300M), Fanatics Markets (Dec 2025). The prediction market category is attracting serious capital.
- Structural advantage: CFTC designation, brokerage infrastructure partnerships, sports betting adjacency.
- Structural vulnerability: 89% sports revenue means state gambling enforcement is existential. Ohio ruled Kalshi IS sports betting. Massachusetts injuncted operations. Federal preemption unresolved — likely needs Supreme Court or legislation.
- Not governance: Aggregates information but doesn't govern organizations.
Investment Thesis
Kalshi is the institutional/mainstream bet on prediction markets. If prediction markets become standard infrastructure for forecasting, Kalshi captures the regulated, institutional, and mainstream consumer segments that Polymarket's crypto model cannot reach. The federal court victory was a regulatory moat creation event.
Thesis status: ACTIVE
Relationship to KB
- Polymarket vindicated prediction markets over polling in 2024 US election — Kalshi co-beneficiary of this vindication
- speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds — same mechanism theory applies
- decision markets fail in three systematic categories where legitimacy thin information or herding dynamics make voting or deliberation structurally superior — boundary conditions apply equally
Relevant Entities:
- polymarket — primary competitor (crypto-native)
Topics: