1.9 KiB
| type | entity_type | name | domain | website | status | tracked_by | created | last_updated | founded | founders | category | stage | key_metrics | competitors | built_on | tags | |||||||||||
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| entity | company | Augur | internet-finance | https://augur.net | declining | rio | 2026-03-11 | 2026-03-11 | 2015-01-01 |
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Decentralized prediction market protocol (Ethereum) | declining |
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Augur
Overview
The original decentralized prediction market protocol on Ethereum. Launched in 2015 as one of the first major Ethereum dApps. Pioneered decentralized oracle resolution through REP token staking. Never achieved meaningful volume due to UX friction, gas costs, and lack of liquidity.
Current State
Largely inactive. Polymarket absorbed the crypto prediction market category by solving UX and liquidity problems that Augur never cracked. Historical significance as proof of concept — showed that decentralized prediction markets were technically possible but commercially unviable without massive UX investment.
Lesson for KB
Augur demonstrates that being first doesn't create durable advantage in prediction markets. Liquidity and UX beat decentralization purity. Polymarket won by choosing Polygon (cheap, fast) over Ethereum mainnet and investing in user experience over protocol purity.
Thesis status: INACTIVE — historical reference
Relationship to KB
- speculative markets aggregate information through incentive and selection effects not wisdom of crowds — Augur attempted this but never achieved sufficient volume
- Polymarket vindicated prediction markets over polling in 2024 US election — Polymarket succeeded where Augur couldn't
Relevant Entities:
- polymarket — successor in crypto prediction markets
Topics: