48 lines
2.6 KiB
Markdown
48 lines
2.6 KiB
Markdown
---
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title: "Superintelligence is already here, today"
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author: Noah Smith
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source: Noahopinion (Substack)
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date: 2026-03-02
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processed_by: theseus
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processed_date: 2026-03-06
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type: newsletter
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domain: ai-alignment
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status: null-result
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claims_extracted:
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- "three conditions gate AI takeover risk autonomy robotics and production chain control and current AI satisfies none of them which bounds near-term catastrophic risk despite superhuman cognitive capabilities"
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enrichments:
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- target: "recursive self-improvement creates explosive intelligence gains because the system that improves is itself improving"
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contribution: "jagged intelligence counterargument — SI arrived via combination not recursion (converted from standalone by Leo PR #27)"
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processed_by: theseus
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processed_date: 2026-03-19
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extraction_model: "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
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extraction_notes: "LLM returned 0 claims, 0 rejected by validator"
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---
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# Superintelligence is already here, today
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Noah Smith's argument that AI is already superintelligent via "jagged intelligence" — superhuman in aggregate but uneven across dimensions.
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Key evidence:
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- METR capability curve: steady climb across cognitive benchmarks, no plateau
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- Erdos problems: ~100 transferred from conjecture to solved
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- Terence Tao: describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow
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- Ginkgo Bioworks + GPT-5: 150 years of protein engineering compressed to weeks
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- "Jagged intelligence": human-level language/reasoning + superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness = superintelligence without recursive self-improvement
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Three conditions for AI planetary control (none currently met):
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1. Full autonomy (not just task execution)
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2. Robotics (physical manipulation at scale)
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3. Production chain control (self-sustaining hardware/energy/infrastructure)
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Key insight: AI may never exceed humans at intuition or judgment, but doesn't need to. The combination of human-level reasoning with superhuman computation is already transformative.
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Source PDF: ~/Desktop/Teleo Codex - Inbox/Noahopinion/Gmail - Superintelligence is already here, today.pdf
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## Key Facts
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- METR capability curves show steady climb across cognitive benchmarks with no plateau as of March 2026
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- Approximately 100 problems transferred from mathematical conjecture to solved status with AI assistance
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- Terence Tao describes AI as complementary research tool that changed his workflow
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- Ginkgo Bioworks with GPT-5 compressed 150 years of protein engineering work to weeks
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- Noah Smith defines 'jagged intelligence' as human-level language/reasoning combined with superhuman speed/memory/tirelessness
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